Advances in Applied Energy最新文献_第3页

Prediction-based control of energy storage systems using dynamic accuracy weighting 基于动态精度加权的储能系统预测控制

IF 13.8

Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100246

Xiao Wang , Xue Liu , Xuyuan Kang , Fu Xiao , Da Yan

{"title":"Prediction-based control of energy storage systems using dynamic accuracy weighting","authors":"Xiao Wang , Xue Liu , Xuyuan Kang , Fu Xiao , Da Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100246","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100246","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Integrating domain knowledge into artificial intelligence models is increasingly recognized as essential for improving energy storage system control based on load predictions. Commonly used accuracy metrics for load prediction models, such as mean absolute percentage error, coefficient of variation of mean absolute error, and coefficient of variation of root mean squared error, are not monotonically correlated with final control performance; in other words, the model with the highest prediction accuracy does not necessarily yield optimal control outcomes. This study introduces a dynamically weighted error metric, which incorporates the attributes of energy storage systems and the temporal dynamics of prediction-based control by leveraging domain knowledge from heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems. The proposed dynamically weighted error metric enhanced the selection of load prediction models, and these models reduced the operating cost of six energy storage systems by up to 6.5 % compared to those using traditional prediction accuracy metrics. The scalability of dynamically weighted error metric was further validated across 10 energy storage capacities and 18 Time-of-Use tariffs in the six building cases, achieving 93.9 %–97.2 % of the ideal cost reductions and outperforming traditional metrics (86.4 %–95.4 %). The applicability of dynamically weighted error metric to common energy storage systems is discussed and confirmed. Additionally, a web-based tool was developed to facilitate dynamically weighted error calculation in practical applications. This study demonstrates that incorporating domain knowledge through dynamic accuracy weighting evidently enhances the whole-process performance of artificial intelligence in energy storage system control.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":"20 ","pages":"Article 100246"},"PeriodicalIF":13.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Enhancing the feasibility of direct air capture by utilizing environmental variability 利用环境变异性提高直接空气捕获的可行性

IF 13.8

Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100253

Kuihua Wang , Lijun Zhu , Junye Wu , Tianshu Ge

{"title":"Enhancing the feasibility of direct air capture by utilizing environmental variability","authors":"Kuihua Wang , Lijun Zhu , Junye Wu , Tianshu Ge","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100253","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100253","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A primary challenge impeding the large-scale deployment of direct air capture (DAC) is its high energy consumption, mainly associated with external input to drive process parameter swings (such as temperature, humidity, and CO<sub>2</sub> concentration). Environmental parameter exhibits strong spatiotemporal variability, significantly impacting the performance of DAC. By adapting DAC operation with environmental variability, potential energy can be effectively extracted from air, thus lowering the energy demand. Diurnal fluctuations can be leveraged for passive desorption, while intense wind facilitates the passive adsorption, Seasonal and long-term environmental changes necessitate adaptive scheduling and operational optimization to maintain performance. Geographical disparities in climate act as natural energy reservoirs, offering opportunities for region-specific deployment strategies. Particularly, high ambient temperatures enable efficient integration of air-source heat pumps; cold climates suppress water co-adsorption and provide effective condensation; humid regions employ water-source heat pump to recovery excessive condensation heat efficiently; and arid regions, with low humidity, minimize water desorption requirements. Future research should prioritize the practical experimental testing, adaptive control and optimization algorithms, alongside establishing quantitative assessment frameworks to guide climate-specific deployment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":"20 ","pages":"Article 100253"},"PeriodicalIF":13.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145466305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Ensemble learning framework for radiative cooling coatings in China’s buildings 中国建筑辐射冷却涂料的集成学习框架

IF 13.8

Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100241

Ze Li , Jianheng Chen , Wenqi Wang , Yang Fu , Xin Li , Aiqiang Pan , Yiying Zhou , Shimelis Admassie , Chi Yan Tso

{"title":"Ensemble learning framework for radiative cooling coatings in China’s buildings","authors":"Ze Li , Jianheng Chen , Wenqi Wang , Yang Fu , Xin Li , Aiqiang Pan , Yiying Zhou , Shimelis Admassie , Chi Yan Tso","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100241","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100241","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Radiative cooling (RC) coatings have emerged as a promising strategy to mitigate the urban heat island effect and improve energy performance in residential buildings. However, their effect varies significantly across different climate zones and urban configurations, underscoring the need for targeted deployment strategies. In this study, an ensemble learning framework was developed by integrating the urban canopy model with the building energy model to predict the energy performance of RC coatings on residential buildings throughout China. A dataset of 5080 cases was generated, and CatBoost demonstrated excellent predictive accuracy (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.948–0.989). SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis identified longwave radiation and building geometry as the most influential factors affecting RC coating energy performance. The trained prediction model was further applied to evaluate six representative cities across diverse climate zones, for community-level evaluation. Additionally, national-scale predictions were conducted by the framework, using simulations of 111 cities, showing RC coatings are most effective in climate zones with hot summer and warm winter, with maximum annual electricity savings of approximately 50 MWh and maximum carbon emission reductions of around 20 kg·m<sup>-2</sup> per year in a hypothetical residential neighborhood. In contrast, their benefits are more limited in cold climate zones due to increased heating demand. These findings provide an effective framework for optimizing RC coating deployment strategies under varying climatic conditions. Furthermore, the framework holds the potential to expand these analyses globally, enabling the evaluation of RC coatings across diverse building types and regions to support worldwide energy and carbon reduction goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":"20 ","pages":"Article 100241"},"PeriodicalIF":13.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145057216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A systematic review of technologies, measures, and CO2 emission reduction potential for maritime transport decarbonisation 对海上运输脱碳的技术、措施和二氧化碳减排潜力进行系统审查

IF 13.8

Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100255

Sina Fadaie , Patricia Thornley , Jean-Baptiste Souppez

{"title":"A systematic review of technologies, measures, and CO2 emission reduction potential for maritime transport decarbonisation","authors":"Sina Fadaie , Patricia Thornley , Jean-Baptiste Souppez","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100255","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100255","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The maritime shipping sector is a significant contributor to global carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions, accounting for approximately 2.7%-3% of global emissions. In response, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set ambitious targets: a 30% reduction in emissions by 2030, 80% by 2040, and net-zero by 2050, relative to 2008 levels. Meeting these goals requires a comprehensive understanding of the full range of viable decarbonisation measures. Therefore, this study conducts a systematic review of maritime decarbonisation measures, applying the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology. Unlike previous studies, this paper not only provides an updated overview of CO<sub>2</sub> reduction measures but also maps them to specific vessel types based on data reported in the literature. Furthermore, the findings are compared with literature to highlight shifts in mitigation potential. A case study is also included to schematically demonstrate how these measures can be applied in practice. Following a rigorous analysis: (i) thirty-two individual CO<sub>2</sub> mitigation measures were identified and classified into six categories, (ii) alternative fuels shown the highest long-term potential (5–100 % CO<sub>2</sub> emission reduction), whereas hull design improvements show the lowest (1–20 %), (iii) the wide disparity in reported abatement values is attributed to inconsistent system boundaries, variability in fuel origin, partial-blend scenarios, and differing assumptions across studies, (iv) combinations of measures provide the most practical and realistic pathway to phased emissions reduction. These findings are expected to assist decision-makers in selecting effective, context-appropriate strategies to support global maritime decarbonisation and ensure long-term sectoral sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":"20 ","pages":"Article 100255"},"PeriodicalIF":13.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145519708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Life cycle CO2e intensity of power-to-liquid sustainable aviation fuel scenarios and specific use cases 动力-液体可持续航空燃料方案和具体用例的生命周期二氧化碳当量强度

IF 13.8

Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100248

Aron Bell , Liam Anthony Mannion , Mark Kelly , Robert Parker , Mohammad Reza Ghaani , Stephen Dooley

{"title":"Life cycle CO2e intensity of power-to-liquid sustainable aviation fuel scenarios and specific use cases","authors":"Aron Bell , Liam Anthony Mannion , Mark Kelly , Robert Parker , Mohammad Reza Ghaani , Stephen Dooley","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100248","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100248","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The life cycle carbon dioxide equivalent (CO<sub>2</sub>e) intensity of Power-to-Liquid (PtL) sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) scenarios in Spain are evaluated using a specific, granular, and transparent modelling approach. Post combustion CO<sub>2</sub> capture and direct air CO<sub>2</sub> capture are considered, in addition to grid and renewable electricity sources. The mass and energy requirements of the PtL system are determined from a mass and energy conserved reaction mechanism and a comprehensive literature review. The SAF yield is constrained by its molecular composition, formulated to meet the physical property specifications for Fischer-Tropsch synthetic paraffinic kerosene (FT-SPK) in ASTM D7566 Annex 1. The results of the life cycle assessment (LCA) show large ranges in CO<sub>2</sub>e intensity of PtL SAF scenarios, from 11 to 101 gCO<sub>2</sub>e/MJ. The electricity emission factors at which the CO<sub>2</sub>e intensity of PtL SAFs meet the 70% reduction required under the ReFuelEU Aviation legislation are 112 – 168 gCO<sub>2</sub>e/kWh for direct air capture and post combustion capture of biogenic CO<sub>2</sub>. As the average EU grid is approximately 300 gCO<sub>2</sub>e/kWh, the use of renewable electricity (onsite or power purchase agreement) is therefore essential to achieve the 70% reduction. The carbon intensity of the Madrid to Dublin commercial flight route is analysed, per revenue-passenger-kilometre (RPK), as a specific use case with actual data of Ryanair Boeing 737-800 and 737 MAX 8 aircraft. Compared to the Science Based Targets 1.5°C limit of 3.3 gCO<sub>2</sub>/RPK, it is shown that sustainable aviation is challenging using PtL SAF, with a best case of 9 gCO<sub>2</sub>/RPK.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":"20 ","pages":"Article 100248"},"PeriodicalIF":13.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145362469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reaching carbon neutrality in China: Temporal and subnational limitations of renewable energy scale-up 中国实现碳中和：可再生能源规模扩大的时间和地方限制

IF 13.8

Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100238

Zhenhua Zhang , Ziheng Zhu , Jessica A. Gordon , Xi Lu , Da Zhang , Michael R. Davidson

{"title":"Reaching carbon neutrality in China: Temporal and subnational limitations of renewable energy scale-up","authors":"Zhenhua Zhang , Ziheng Zhu , Jessica A. Gordon , Xi Lu , Da Zhang , Michael R. Davidson","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100238","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100238","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Acute temporal impacts and subnational limitations can hinder a country’s decarbonization pathway, despite national planning efforts. China, as the world’s largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter, has announced an ambitious climate policy goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, which will require an unprecedented scale-up of low-carbon energy technologies. China’s variable renewable energy (VRE) deployment is historically imbalanced with large geographic concentrations driven by resource endowment and institutional heterogeneities. If continued, this pattern can run into deployment limits and exacerbate challenges associated with socio-economic benefits distribution, threatening the ability to timely integrate VRE. We develop a capacity expansion model with grid operational detail and high spatial resolution to examine decadal pathways to carbon neutrality by 2060 considering localized and temporal impacts. Over these four decades, we find that all regions will increase deployment rates of renewable energy, first driven by the use of high-quality resources, and later by coal retirement and electricity demand growth. The share of provinces with high deployment pressure, where deployment requirements exceed historical rates, increases from around 45% to 100% by the final decade. If carbon capture and storage (CCS) is not available, maximum annual average deployment rates will increase by 33% and occur a decade earlier. A more stringent 1.5 °C emission target leads to more acute temporal and spatial deployment pressures in the first decade, with VRE concentrated in regions with high-quality resources and demand centers and a doubling of new transmission capacity in the first decade. Effective national and subnational policy support is necessary to coordinate VRE deployment and facilitate transitions in impacted regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":"20 ","pages":"Article 100238"},"PeriodicalIF":13.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145321503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Variability of technology learning rates 技术学习率的可变性

IF 13.8

Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100252

Angelo Carlino , Alicia Wongel , Lei Duan , Edgar Virgüez , Steven J. Davis , Morgan R. Edwards , Ken Caldeira

{"title":"Variability of technology learning rates","authors":"Angelo Carlino , Alicia Wongel , Lei Duan , Edgar Virgüez , Steven J. Davis , Morgan R. Edwards , Ken Caldeira","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100252","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100252","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate and energy policy analysts and researchers often forecast the cost of low-carbon energy technologies using Wright’s model of technological innovation. The learning rate, i.e., the percentage cost reduction per doubling of cumulative production, is assumed constant in this model. Here, we analyze the relationship between cost and scale of production for 87 technologies in the Performance Curve Database spanning multiple sectors. We find that stepwise changes in learning rates provide a better fit for 58 of these technologies and produce forecasts with equal or significantly lower errors compared to constant learning rates for 36 and 30 technologies, respectively. While costs generally decrease with increasing production, past learning rates are not good predictors of future learning rates. We show that these results affect technological change projections in the short and long term, focusing on three key mitigation technologies: solar photovoltaics, wind power, and lithium-ion batteries. We suggest that investment in early-stage technologies nearing cost-competitiveness, combined with techno-economic analysis and decision-making under uncertainty methods, can help mitigate the impact of uncertainty in projections of future technology cost.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":"20 ","pages":"Article 100252"},"PeriodicalIF":13.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145466121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Revealing drivers of green technology adoption through explainable Artificial Intelligence 通过可解释的人工智能揭示绿色技术采用的驱动因素

IF 13.8

Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100242

Dorothea Kistinger , Maurizio Titz , Philipp C. Böttcher , Michael T. Schaub , Sandra Venghaus , Dirk Witthaut

{"title":"Revealing drivers of green technology adoption through explainable Artificial Intelligence","authors":"Dorothea Kistinger , Maurizio Titz , Philipp C. Böttcher , Michael T. Schaub , Sandra Venghaus , Dirk Witthaut","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100242","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100242","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effective governance of energy system transformation away from fossil resources requires a quantitative understanding of the diffusion of green technologies and its key influencing factors. In this article, we propose a novel machine learning approach to diffusion research focusing on actual decisions and spatial aspects complementing research on intentions and temporal dynamics. We develop machine learning models that predict regional differences in the accumulated peak power of household-scale photovoltaic systems and the share of battery electric vehicles from a large set of demographic, geographic, political, and socio-economic features. Tools from explainable artificial intelligence enable a consistent identification of the key influencing factors and quantify their impact. Focusing on data from German municipal associations, we identify common themes and differences in the adoption of green technologies. Specifically, the adoption of battery electric vehicles is strongly associated with income and election results, while the adoption of photovoltaic systems correlates with the prevalence of large dwellings and levels of global solar radiation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":"20 ","pages":"Article 100242"},"PeriodicalIF":13.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145160159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing the techno-economic impact of district heating on electrical distribution grid reinforcements 评估集中供热对配电网加固的技术经济影响

IF 13.8

Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100251

Jerry Lambert , Hermann Kraus , Markus Doepfert , Miaomiao He , David Gschossmann , Amedeo Ceruti , Isabell Nemeth , Oliver Brückl , Thomas Hamacher , Hartmut Spliethoff

{"title":"Assessing the techno-economic impact of district heating on electrical distribution grid reinforcements","authors":"Jerry Lambert , Hermann Kraus , Markus Doepfert , Miaomiao He , David Gschossmann , Amedeo Ceruti , Isabell Nemeth , Oliver Brückl , Thomas Hamacher , Hartmut Spliethoff","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100251","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100251","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Enhanced sector coupling across electricity, mobility, and heating sectors leads to higher efforts for distribution grid upgrades. Based on a case study, this paper evaluates the role of district heating networks in reducing electrical distribution grid reinforcements and compares their economic viability against a building-specific heat supply using heat pumps. A detailed energy system model is used to analyze two building energy renovation scenarios: a business-as-usual scenario with a 1% annual renovation rate and an ambitious scenario with a rate of 2%. Using a two-step optimization, the impact of different district heating network penetration levels on the distribution grid is evaluated, followed by an ex-post analysis to incorporate a simultaneity factor into district heating networks. Overall, district heating networks can reduce distribution grid reinforcements, but the associated savings alone do not justify their construction, particularly in the ambitious renovation scenario. In the business-as-usual scenario, a district heating network can reduce reinforcement costs by up to 71%. However, in the ambitious scenario, grid reinforcements are already reduced due to lower heat peak demand, and the maximal reinforcement cost savings only amount to 35%. Compared economically, district heating networks are cost-competitive with building-specific heating only in the business-as-usual scenario, up to a heat supply share of 70% and in the ambitious scenario, up to 40%. In both scenarios, a district heating network can be a robust solution to lower macroeconomic costs for a carbon-neutral heat supply.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":"20 ","pages":"Article 100251"},"PeriodicalIF":13.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145417218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Advancing building stock transformation models: An agent-based approach and its application to Germany 推进存量转换模型：基于主体的方法及其在德国的应用

IF 13.8

Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100256

Şirin Alibaş , Songmin Yu , Mahsa Bagheri , Tobias Fleiter

{"title":"Advancing building stock transformation models: An agent-based approach and its application to Germany","authors":"Şirin Alibaş , Songmin Yu , Mahsa Bagheri , Tobias Fleiter","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100256","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100256","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The building sector is pivotal for achieving climate neutrality, requiring sophisticated modeling tools to guide the energy transition. It is highly heterogeneous with variety in both the built environment and in its decision-makers. While many sectoral models exist, most of them fall short of capturing the barriers and limitations in the energy transition as they lack high spatial resolution and a detailed representation of heterogeneous building characteristics and local infrastructure constraints. To address this gap, we present RENDER-Building, a new agent-based model (ABM) designed for high-resolution analysis of building stock transformation. We validate and apply the model to the German building stock to simulate potential transformation pathways until 2050 under three distinct scenarios. The individual buildings are the agents here with detailed attributes, located in a settlement type in a NUTS3 region. The model explicitly considers the availability of energy infrastructure and simulates agents’ decisions about renovation and technology adoption based on bounded rationality. Our case study’s results indicate that even with ambitious measures, Germany’s building sector may miss its short-term emission targets due to the inertia of the existing stock. A transformation pathway considering realistic challenges could substantially exceed the short- and long-term emission targets, necessitating difficult and potentially costly interventions to get back on track. Our study demonstrates the utility of high-resolution ABMs in providing nuanced, actionable insights for policymakers, helping them to navigate the complexities of the building sector’s energy transition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":"20 ","pages":"Article 100256"},"PeriodicalIF":13.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145568635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0