Advances in Applied Energy最新文献_第2页

The sun always shines somewhere – the energetic feasibility of a global grid with 100% renewable electricity 太阳总在某处照耀——100%可再生电力的全球电网的能量可行性

IF 13.8

Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2026.100263

Frederick Peter Ivens , Jethro Akroyd , Markus Kraft

{"title":"The sun always shines somewhere – the energetic feasibility of a global grid with 100% renewable electricity","authors":"Frederick Peter Ivens , Jethro Akroyd , Markus Kraft","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2026.100263","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.adapen.2026.100263","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The defossilisation of the global electricity system is critical for mitigating climate change. Wind and solar PV play critical roles in this shift; however, their intermittency presents a significant challenge. Intercontinental electricity transmission offers a potential solution to mitigate this intermittency. This study investigates the energetic feasibility of a hypothetical global electricity grid relying solely on wind and solar PV energy. An optimisation problem was solved to determine the deployment of wind and solar PV capacities that minimise excess electricity generation. The simulations use a much higher spatial resolution of renewable potentials than in previous studies of global grids. They suggest that a global grid could reduce excess electricity generation by up to 92% compared to an equivalent no transmission scenario and increase the correlation coefficient between the time-varying global generation and demand to 0.65. Analysis of global power flows estimated that approximately 3.6% of global demand would be lost during transmission. The study contextualised the power lost through transmission and curtailment by comparing it to the losses that would occur if other energy vectors (<em>e.g.</em>, hydrogen) were used or if the curtailed power were redirected for other purposes. The efficiency of the global grid was found to be significantly higher than that of hydrogen — 93.1% compared to approximately 30%. Additionally, if the excess electricity were used for hydrogen production, direct air capture (DAC), or desalination, it could address approximately 21.1% of the anticipated global hydrogen demand in 2050, 3.3% of the global CO<sub>2</sub> removal required by 2030 to meet Net Zero targets, or meet 33% of the estimated global freshwater demand in 2050 through desalination.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100263"},"PeriodicalIF":13.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147421085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Advances in reinforcement learning for enhancing scheduling of hydrogen-integrated energy systems 基于强化学习的氢集成能源系统调度研究进展

IF 13.8

Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2026.100264

Nianru Chen , Haoran Zhang , Hongbin Xie , Ge Song , Yanzhen Zhang , Weiyao Yang , Jian Yuan , Zhuguang Chen , Xiaodan Shi

{"title":"Advances in reinforcement learning for enhancing scheduling of hydrogen-integrated energy systems","authors":"Nianru Chen , Haoran Zhang , Hongbin Xie , Ge Song , Yanzhen Zhang , Weiyao Yang , Jian Yuan , Zhuguang Chen , Xiaodan Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2026.100264","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.adapen.2026.100264","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hydrogen-Integrated Energy Systems have emerged as a critical architecture for deep decarbonization, yet their operational complexity — characterized by nonlinear electrochemical dynamics, profound stochasticity, and rigid physical safety constraints — renders traditional model-based optimization increasingly insufficient. This paper presents a comprehensive review of Reinforcement Learning applications in H-IES scheduling, underpinned by a novel lifecycle-oriented framework. This framework systematically aligns the hydrogen value chain from production and storage to multi-energy coordination with RL research. As the study’s primary contribution, it serves as a unifying architecture that maps fragmented literature to specific operational stages and engineering mandates, establishing a coherent roadmap for researchers and practitioners. We systematically evaluate the performance of various RL algorithms, distinguishing between model-free approaches for economic optimization and hybrid frameworks designed to enforce physical safety constraints. Notably, while deep reinforcement learning algorithms evolve rapidly, the Markov Decision Process formulation and the lifecycle-stage requirements they encode are more durable than any specific algorithmic choice, especially given the slower implementation cycle of real H-IES assets. Furthermore, this review critically identifies the key engineering barriers hindering real-world deployment, including data scarcity, the simulation-to-reality gap, and the lack of interpretability. Finally, this review articulates prospective research directions, highlighting the potential of emerging technologies such as Large Language Models, Meta-Reinforcement Learning, and Digital Twins to evolve RL from a theoretical tool into a robust engine for the intelligent management of the next-generation hydrogen economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100264"},"PeriodicalIF":13.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147421086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A RAG data pipeline transforming heterogeneous data into AI-ready format for autonomous building performance discovery RAG数据管道将异构数据转换为ai就绪格式，用于自主建筑性能发现

IF 13.8

Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100261

Han Li, Ana Comesana, Christopher Weyandt, Tianzhen Hong

{"title":"A RAG data pipeline transforming heterogeneous data into AI-ready format for autonomous building performance discovery","authors":"Han Li, Ana Comesana, Christopher Weyandt, Tianzhen Hong","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100261","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100261","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite a growing volume of data being collected from buildings, a small portion of the data has been analyzed to provide actionable insights, mainly due to the labor intensive and error prone process of integrating and understanding the heterogeneous data with varying levels of quality and resolutions. This study introduces a novel domain-adapted Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) based data pipeline designed for efficient information retrieval and management from heterogeneous building data sources. The proposed data pipeline leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) and domain-specific processing to transform unstructured data (including images, tables, and plain text) into semantically rich, AI-ready representations. Evaluation results show that the domain-adapted processing techniques achieved approximately 30% improvement in both coverage and structural preservation for documents like images and tables compared to generic baseline methods employing generic prompts and minimal preprocessing. This automation capability transforms raw building artifacts into AI-ready searchable knowledge bases. A critical application demonstrated is the automation of semantic data model creation, reducing the manual effort from potentially days to minutes. This domain-adapted RAG pipeline significantly addresses persistent data challenges in the building sector, increasing the accessibility and utility of building information for diverse stakeholders and applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100261"},"PeriodicalIF":13.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145939211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Planning future charging infrastructure for private EVs: A city-scale assessment of demand and capacity 规划未来私人电动汽车的充电基础设施：城市规模的需求和容量评估

IF 13.8

Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100258

Hong Yuan , Minda Ma , Nan Zhou , Yanqiao Deng , Junhong Liu , Shufan Zhang , Zhili Ma

{"title":"Planning future charging infrastructure for private EVs: A city-scale assessment of demand and capacity","authors":"Hong Yuan , Minda Ma , Nan Zhou , Yanqiao Deng , Junhong Liu , Shufan Zhang , Zhili Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100258","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100258","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Capacity planning for electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure has emerged as a critical challenge in developing low-carbon urban energy systems. This study proposes the first demand-driven, multi-objective planning model for optimizing city-scale capacity allocation of EV charging infrastructure. The model employs a bottom-up approach to estimate charging demand differentiated by vehicle type—battery electric vehicles (BEVs), extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Chongqing, a rapidly expanding EV industry cluster in China with a strong industrial base, supportive policies, and diverse urban morphologies, is selected as the case study. The results show that (1) monthly EV electricity consumption in Chongqing rose from 18.9 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in June 2022 to 57.5 GWh in December 2024, with associated carbon emissions increasing from 9.9 kilotons of carbon dioxide (ktCO<sub>2</sub>) to 30 ktCO<sub>2</sub>; (2) 181,622 additional charging piles were installed between 2022 and 2024, with the fastest growth observed in Yubei, reflecting a demand-responsive strategy that prioritizes areas with higher population density, higher income levels, and adequate land availability for pile deployment, rather than broad geographic coverage; and (3) between 2025 and 2030, EV electricity demand is projected to reach 1940 GWh, with the number of charging piles exceeding 1.4 million, and charging demand from EREVs and PHEVs expected to overtake BEVs later in the period. While Chongqing serves as the pilot area, the proposed planning platform is adaptable for application in cities worldwide, enabling cross-regional comparisons under diverse socio-economic, geographic, and policy conditions. Overall, this work offers policymakers a versatile tool to support sustainable, cost-effective EV infrastructure deployment aligned with low-carbon electrification targets in the transportation sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100258"},"PeriodicalIF":13.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145749721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Economics of electric vehicle corridor fast charging in the United States 美国电动汽车走廊快速充电的经济性

IF 13.8

Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100257

Brennan Borlaug , Vince Caristo , Fletcher Ouren , Fan Yang , Eric Wood , Laura Roberson

{"title":"Economics of electric vehicle corridor fast charging in the United States","authors":"Brennan Borlaug , Vince Caristo , Fletcher Ouren , Fan Yang , Eric Wood , Laura Roberson","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100257","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100257","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Corridor direct-current fast charging (DCFC) stations enable long-distance electric vehicle travel, yet their economics remain uncertain due to high capital costs, low initial utilization, and exposure to utility demand charges. This study evaluates the long-term economics of corridor DCFC across the United States, incorporating capital and operating expenses—including charging equipment and real-world utility tariffs—alongside modeled station utilization, financial incentives, and ancillary retail revenue. In the Baseline scenario, modeled breakeven costs for corridor DCFC average $0.42/kWh over 20 years, yet fewer than half of stations reach cost parity with gasoline on a per-mile basis. Utilization is the primary driver of cost variation, with low-utilization stations costing roughly six times more per kilowatt-hour than the national average. Excluding stations that fail to reach cost parity reduces National Highway System coverage within 50 miles from 94% to 67%, underscoring the trade-off between market-driven deployment and comprehensive network coverage. These results provide guidance for charging providers, utilities, planners, and policymakers seeking to develop and sustain a financially viable national corridor charging network.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100257"},"PeriodicalIF":13.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145705694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Utilizing oxygen from green hydrogen production in wastewater treatment plant aeration: A techno-economic analysis 利用废水处理厂曝气中绿色制氢产生的氧气：技术经济分析

IF 13.8

Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100254

Levin Matz , Lukas Koenemann , Steffen Brundiers , Inga Beyers , Arne Freyschmidt , Astrid Bensmann , Richard Hanke-Rauschenbach

{"title":"Utilizing oxygen from green hydrogen production in wastewater treatment plant aeration: A techno-economic analysis","authors":"Levin Matz , Lukas Koenemann , Steffen Brundiers , Inga Beyers , Arne Freyschmidt , Astrid Bensmann , Richard Hanke-Rauschenbach","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100254","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100254","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The growing demand for green hydrogen is driving the expansion of water electrolysis. The resulting oxygen byproduct offers potential added value when used in sectors with high oxygen demand, such as wastewater treatment. This study investigates the techno-economic viability of using electrolysis oxygen to supplement conventional air blowers in the aeration process of municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) to reduce aeration costs and thereby improve the overall economics of hydrogen production. A comprehensive system model is developed, incorporating renewable electricity supply, water electrolysis, hydrogen compression, storage, and transport, as well as WWTP aeration via conventional air blowers and electrolysis oxygen. Results show that electrolysis oxygen can reduce WWTP aeration costs by up to 68%. If these cost reductions are attributed as a benefit to the hydrogen system, they correspond to hydrogen supply cost savings of up to 0.39 EUR/kgH<sub>2</sub>. However, the analysis indicates that economic viability is substantially influenced by factors such as the distance of hydrogen transport from the WWTP to the European Hydrogen Backbone feed-in point, which should not exceed 25 km, and the alignment between the scale of hydrogen production and the size of the WWTP, with cost-effective integration being particularly feasible for larger WWTPs (≥500,000 PE).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":"20 ","pages":"Article 100254"},"PeriodicalIF":13.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145466306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Price formation and intersectoral distributional effects in a fully decarbonised European electricity market 完全脱碳的欧洲电力市场中的价格形成和部门间分配效应

IF 13.8

Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100245

Silke Johanndeiter , Niina Helistö , Juha Kiviluoma , Valentin Bertsch

{"title":"Price formation and intersectoral distributional effects in a fully decarbonised European electricity market","authors":"Silke Johanndeiter , Niina Helistö , Juha Kiviluoma , Valentin Bertsch","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100245","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100245","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Future power supply will be dominated by solar and wind energy with near zero variable costs. Hence, wholesale market prices could frequently drop near zero. We use a sector-coupled power system model to optimise scenarios of a fully decarbonised European electricity market with a high penetration of variable renewables. Resulting electricity prices exceed near zero levels throughout most hours of the year as they are predominantly determined by the opportunity costs of cross-sectoral demand, particularly electrolysers. Consequently, even in markets with a high penetration of variable renewables, electricity prices continue to be driven by fuel costs, as they determine the opportunity costs of a price-setting demand. We find market actors in different sectors to be heterogeneously exposed to associated price risks. Price-responsive electricity demand can mitigate cost increases, while investors in variable renewables and inflexible electricity consumers are similarly exposed to revenue and cost risks. Thus, they could mutually benefit from risk-mitigating instruments. Conversely, our results indicate that hydrogen producers and consumers do not share such a common interest as hydrogen consumers’ final energy consumption costs vary more across scenarios and countries than electrolysers’ profits due to their role as price-setters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":"20 ","pages":"Article 100245"},"PeriodicalIF":13.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145269142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Rethinking the atmospheric downward longwave radiation: A black-gray body model for accurate estimation 对大气向下长波辐射的再思考：一种精确估计的黑灰体模型

IF 13.8

Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100244

Lanxin Li , Xianze Ao , Qiangyan Hao , Meiling Liu , Xiansheng Li , Kegui Lu , Chongwen Zou , Bin Zhao , Gang Pei

{"title":"Rethinking the atmospheric downward longwave radiation: A black-gray body model for accurate estimation","authors":"Lanxin Li , Xianze Ao , Qiangyan Hao , Meiling Liu , Xiansheng Li , Kegui Lu , Chongwen Zou , Bin Zhao , Gang Pei","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100244","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100244","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurately estimating atmospheric downward longwave radiation is critical for applications ranging from radiative cooling to building energy efficiency. The main challenge lies in its spectral variability, which depends strongly on sky conditions such as humidity and cloud cover. In this study, we propose a Black–Gray body atmospheric radiation model that divides the infrared spectrum into three regions, treating the atmosphere as a graybody in the 8–13 μm and a blackbody outside this band. The model integrates locally measured radiative power to dynamically capture temporal and spatial variations. Validation experiments were conducted using radiative cooling processes in three Chinese cities (Hefei, Lhasa, and Haikou) under different climates and weather conditions. The BG model consistently predicted radiative cooling power with high accuracy, with mean absolute percentage errors generally below 10 %, outperforming both the effective sky emissivity method and MODTRAN-based predictions. Furthermore, we introduce the concept of band-resolved atmospheric energy databases, analogous to solar radiation databases, and demonstrate it with a full-year case study in Hefei. This work provides a new modeling framework that enhances precision and enables broader applications in energy systems, climate studies, and environmental design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":"20 ","pages":"Article 100244"},"PeriodicalIF":13.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145160158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Advanced fault diagnosis in batteries: Insights into fault mechanisms, sensor fusion, and artificial intelligence 电池的高级故障诊断：故障机制、传感器融合和人工智能

IF 13.8

Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100247

Kailong Liu , Shiwen Zhao , Yu Wang , Kang Li , Jiayue Wang , Yaojie Sun , Qiuwei Wu , Qiao Peng

{"title":"Advanced fault diagnosis in batteries: Insights into fault mechanisms, sensor fusion, and artificial intelligence","authors":"Kailong Liu , Shiwen Zhao , Yu Wang , Kang Li , Jiayue Wang , Yaojie Sun , Qiuwei Wu , Qiao Peng","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100247","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100247","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the increasing demand for sustainable and clean energy, lithium-ion batteries have emerged as one of the most essential energy storage technologies. However, safety concerns have become a major bottleneck, significantly constraining their widespread deployment. This highlights the critical need for efficient fault diagnosis to ensure the safe and reliable operation of battery systems. In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, in combination with advanced sensing technologies, have attracted growing attention for battery fault diagnosis and prognosis. Nevertheless, their full potential and broad applicability remain underexplored. This review provides a systematic analysis of the integration of AI methodologies with advanced sensors, emphasizing their capabilities for accurate fault detection and prediction, while also identifying key challenges and future research directions in this evolving field. The study begins by outlining common battery fault types and their underlying mechanisms, offering a foundational understanding of the associated complexities. It then introduces state-of-the-art AI techniques applied in fault diagnosis. Then, recent advances in combining AI with advanced sensing technologies for battery diagnostics are examined. Finally, the limitations of current approaches are discussed, and promising directions are proposed to facilitate the development of intelligent, scalable, and robust fault diagnosis frameworks for lithium-ion battery systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":"20 ","pages":"Article 100247"},"PeriodicalIF":13.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145268688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evaluating grid stress and reliability in future electricity grids across a range of demand, generation mix, and weather trends 在各种需求、发电组合和天气趋势下评估未来电网的压力和可靠性

IF 13.8

Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100249

Kerem Ziya Akdemir , Kendall Mongird , Cameron Bracken , Casey D. Burleyson , Jordan D. Kern , Konstantinos Oikonomou , Travis B. Thurber , Chris R. Vernon , Nathalie Voisin , Mengqi Zhao , Jennie S. Rice

{"title":"Evaluating grid stress and reliability in future electricity grids across a range of demand, generation mix, and weather trends","authors":"Kerem Ziya Akdemir , Kendall Mongird , Cameron Bracken , Casey D. Burleyson , Jordan D. Kern , Konstantinos Oikonomou , Travis B. Thurber , Chris R. Vernon , Nathalie Voisin , Mengqi Zhao , Jennie S. Rice","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100249","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100249","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The reliability of power grids in the future will depend on how system planners account for the integration of new technologies, extreme weather events, and uncertainties in demand growth from increased electrification and data centers. This study introduces an open-source, multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that projects grid stress and reliability trends between 2020 and 2055 in the Western Interconnection of the United States. The framework integrates global to national energy-water-land dynamics with power plant siting and hourly grid operations modeling. We analyze future wholesale electricity price shocks and unserved energy events across eight scenarios spanning a range of population growth and economic change, generation mixes, and weather conditions. Our results show future grids with high percentage of non-renewable generation and strong economic growth are characterized by higher reliability and lower wholesale electricity prices than lower growth scenarios because of larger reliance on dispatchable generators and lower fossil fuel extraction costs. Scenarios with high percentage of renewable resources have lower median but more volatile wholesale electricity prices as well as more frequent and severe unserved energy events compared to scenarios relying more on dispatchable generators. These events occur because higher proportion of solar and wind energy causes net demand curves to deepen during midday (duck curves get progressively severe), exacerbating the challenge of meeting demand during summer evening peaks. This study suggests that robust and co-optimized transmission and energy storage planning could help maintain low wholesale electricity prices and high reliability levels in future electricity grids across uncertainties in generation mixes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":"20 ","pages":"Article 100249"},"PeriodicalIF":13.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145362470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0