Journal of Agriculture and Food Research最新文献

{"title":"Single spring irrigation with optimized nitrogen sustains winter wheat yield and improves water productivity and profitability in the North China Plain","authors":"Xiaoyuan Bao ,&nbsp;Congcong Guo ,&nbsp;Baoyuan Zhang ,&nbsp;Hong Fan ,&nbsp;Menglei Dai ,&nbsp;Xuejing Liu ,&nbsp;Limin Gu ,&nbsp;Wenchao Zhen ,&nbsp;Cai Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102738","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102738","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Optimizing irrigation and nitrogen (N) management is critical for sustainable winter wheat production in the North China Plain (NCP). To clarify the optimal N rate under a single spring irrigation regime, a split-plot field experiment (2020–2023) compared two irrigation schedules—W2: 75 mm at the spring 3-leaf stage and again at anthesis; W1: a single 75 mm irrigation at the spring 4-leaf stage—crossed with four N rates (N1–N4: 180, 240, 300, 360 kg N ha⁻¹). Relative to W2, W1 reduced evapotranspiration, increased soil water consumption, and redistributed water use toward the jointing–anthesis stage. However, W1 incurred a 3.3–11.6% yield penalty compared with W2. Under W1, applying 300 kg N ha⁻¹ (N3) maximized spike number and flag-leaf area, lowered canopy temperature, maintained flag-leaf photosynthetic capacity, increased dry matter accumulation and harvest index, and consequently produced the highest grain yield (8351.5 kg ha⁻¹). The W1N3 combination achieved the greatest crop water productivity (2.1 kg m⁻³), irrigation water productivity (11.1 kg m⁻³), agronomic N efficiency (11.2 kg kg⁻¹), net income, and benefit-cost ratio. Quadratic response modeling indicated that, under W1, an N range of ≈279–298 kg ha⁻¹ attains 95–100% of the maximum yield and net income. These results provide actionable guidance for water-saving wheat cultivation in the NCP: single spring irrigation at the 4-leaf stage paired with ∼280–300 kg N ha⁻¹ can largely offset yield penalties while improving resource-use efficiency and farm profitability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34393,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agriculture and Food Research","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 102738"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146189181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating chemical, organic, water-soluble and microbial fertilizers achieve mutually benefits of high nutrient utilization, improved yield and quality in tobacco cultivation","authors":"Wei Yang ,&nbsp;Chenjian Zhao ,&nbsp;Zhijie Chen ,&nbsp;Xiaopeng Deng ,&nbsp;Junying Li ,&nbsp;Junwei Sun ,&nbsp;Panlei Wang ,&nbsp;Bo Zhu ,&nbsp;Bingxue Wang ,&nbsp;Zhengqin Xiong ,&nbsp;Yu'e Li ,&nbsp;Bin Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102667","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102667","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Optimizing nutrient management measures is fundamental to balancing tobacco yield and quality. While individual effects of fertilizers are well-documented, the integrated synergy of organic amendments with water-soluble fertilizers or microbial agents remains relatively scarce. Hence, a two-year field experiment was conducted to evaluate the comprehensive effects of five distinct nutrient management measures, no fertilization (CK), conventional chemical fertilizer (CF), organic fertilizer combined with conventional chemical fertilizer (CM), organic fertilizer combined with water-soluble fertilizer (WS), organic fertilizer combined with a compound microbial agent (OM), on tobacco growth, nutrient uptake and its use efficiency, leaf chemical composition, yield, quality, and revenue. The results revealed that WS and OM treatments increased tobacco yield and quality (proportion of premium and medium-grade tobacco leaves) by 14.9 %–24.6 % and 1.6 %–6.3 %, respectively, compared to the CF treatment. These improvements were primarily driven by enhanced plant height, stem girth, number of leaves, leaf area index, biomass, nutrient use efficiency and total sugar, potassium contents. Specifically, WS and OM increased N use efficiency by 106.0 %–130.9 % and 97.4 %–126.1 %, P use efficiency by 62.7 %–149.6 % and 79.2 %–112.4 %, K use efficiency by 473.1 %–551.4 % and 474.6 %–480.5 %, tobacco yield by 20.9 %–24.6 % and 14.9 %–19.1 %, the proportion of premium-grade leaf by 6.5 %–17.2 % and 8.9 %–11.1 %, and tobacco revenue by 26.8 %–29.0 % and 22.8 %–31.5 %, respectively. In summary, both the WS and OM treatments significantly improved the nutrient use efficiency, tobacco yield, leaf quality and revenue; among these, the WS treatment demonstrated the best comprehensive performance. Thus, organic fertilizer combined with water-soluble fertilizer is crucial for promoting the sustainable development of the tobacco industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34393,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agriculture and Food Research","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 102667"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Metabolomic profiling, functional, and sensory properties of papads made from two types of rice grown in different conditions","authors":"Kamaldeep Kaur,&nbsp;Sonal Aggarwal,&nbsp;Deepika Kathuria,&nbsp;Narpinder Singh","doi":"10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102644","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102644","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The study aimed to investigate the differences in metabolite profiles between rice varieties cultivated under organic and conventional conditions and to evaluate their suitability for developing high-quality <em>papads</em> (traditional rice-based snacks). Multivariate statistical analyses (PCA and PLS-DA) revealed distinct metabolic clustering between organic and conventional rice samples. Key differentiating metabolites included myo-inositol, glycerol, sucrose, and linoleic acid in polished rice, and oxalic acid, 5-oxoproline, and glycerol-3-phosphate in bran. Papads made from organic rice exhibited higher protein content, greater levels of bioactive compounds, and significantly enhanced antioxidant activity (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) compared to those made from conventional rice. Moreover, organic rice papads demonstrated superior functional properties, such as higher oil uptake and water absorption capacity, along with improved texture, sensory acceptability, and microbial stability, resulting in an extended shelf life. Furthermore, papads made from organic rice exhibited higher functional properties (oil uptake and water absorption), improved texture, sensory acceptability, and microbial stability. Hence, the present study highlights the potential of organic farming to enhance the value of traditional agro-products and suggests the need for further research on the long-term sustainability and functional impacts of organic cultivation practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34393,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agriculture and Food Research","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 102644"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of intensive greenhouse cultivation on soil health: implications for synergistic management of nutrients and contaminants","authors":"Linjun Shen ,&nbsp;Fangkai Zhao ,&nbsp;Junran Li ,&nbsp;Lei Yang ,&nbsp;Qingyu Feng ,&nbsp;Nengliang Yang ,&nbsp;Kaifeng Yang ,&nbsp;Honglin Liu ,&nbsp;Liding Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102707","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102707","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Under long-term greenhouse vegetable production, intensive nutrient inputs enhance crop yields but also lead to the accumulation of antibiotics and heavy metals in greenhouse soils, posing potential risks to crop productivity and soil health. However, studies examining the trade-offs between nutrient inputs and soil contamination remain limited in terms of quantitative assessment of contamination risks. In this study, greenhouse soils with different cultivation histories (&lt;1 year, 5 years, and &gt;10 years) were investigated. The risk quotient (RQ) and a multi-factor heavy metal pollution index (Pt) were used to quantitatively assess the potential risks of soil antibiotics and heavy metals (HMs) contamination to crop growth and soil health, identify key drivers of risks accumulation, and predict contamination risks under different nutrient levels through scenario analyses. The results showed that RQ exhibited “pseudo-persistence” during long-term cultivation and tended to accumulate in lower soil layers, whereas Pt increased continuously with cultivation duration and was predominantly retained in the plow pan layer. Soil nutrients were identified as the key drivers of antibiotic contamination risk, while soil texture played a dominant role in explaining heavy metal contamination risk. Scenario predictions indicated that further increases in nutrient inputs would substantially intensify soil contamination risks; notably, a 10 % increase in soil nutrient levels could elevate antibiotic contamination risk by more than 50 %. This study provides scientific evidence for the coordinated management of nutrient inputs and contamination risks in greenhouse agricultural systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34393,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agriculture and Food Research","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 102707"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How does renewable energy transition promote food system resilience in China: The moderating role of artificial intelligence","authors":"Jingyi Wang ,&nbsp;Shuai Zhang ,&nbsp;Haibo Zhu ,&nbsp;Xin Dai ,&nbsp;Xuebiao Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102637","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102637","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Investigating how energy transition facilitates food system resilience is crucial for improving food security. The study uses a panel dataset from 30 Chinese provinces over the period 2011–2021 to explore the influence of energy transition on food system resilience by using a series of regression models. The mechanism and heterogeneity analysis are also carried out. Furthermore, the moderating role of artificial intelligence (AI) is discussed. The findings of the feasible generalized least squares regression show that energy transition plays a positive role in promoting food system resilience, and the effect tends to be larger in major grain-producing areas than those in non-major grain-producing areas. AI acts as a moderating variable in the energy transition-food system resilience nexus. Based on these results, we recommend policy strategies that strengthen the efforts to promote energy transition to enhance food system resilience, and also improve the application of AI in this nexus.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34393,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agriculture and Food Research","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 102637"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145928630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Soil fertility assessment for mango production in karst agroecosystems of Southwest China","authors":"Yifan Wang ,&nbsp;Yujie Zha ,&nbsp;Qiuliang Cai ,&nbsp;Dianjun Lu ,&nbsp;Xiaoqin Chen ,&nbsp;Yiliu Wang ,&nbsp;Solomon Yokamo ,&nbsp;Bin Wang ,&nbsp;Xinyuan Lu ,&nbsp;Huoyan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102655","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102655","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate assessment of soil fertility is crucial for enhancing mango productivity and quality. However, rare soil fertility surveys have been reported on mango orchards, especially in karst mountainous areas of China. In this study, an investigation was conducted using 152 paired soil-fruit samples collected from commercial mango orchards in Baise City, Guangxi Province, southwestern China. Principal component analysis (PCA) was employed to establish a minimum data set (MDS), and two distinct weighting methods were compared to calculate the soil integrated fertility index (IFI). The 5 representative indicators—pH, available potassium (AK), organic matter (OM), available phosphorus (AP), and available boron (AB)—were selected to construct the MDS. Together with a correlation-based weighting method, the average IFI was determined to be 0.51 (range: 0.17–0.92), grading the overall fertility as “Medium.” Significant positive correlations were observed between IFI and both yield (R² = 0.45, p &lt; 0.01) and fruit quality index (FQI) (R² = 0.49, p &lt; 0.01). Notably, AK and OM were identified as the primary determinants of yield and FQI using random forest model, with 20 g/kg for OM or 120 mg/kg for AK as the critical thresholds for achieving high yields. Furthermore, AP, AB, and altitude were determined as the secondary limiting factors, with corresponding high yield thresholds of 20 mg/kg, 0.30 mg/kg, and 300 m, respectively. These findings provide a theoretical basis and practical guidelines for optimizing orchard establishment and nutrient management in karst agroecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34393,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agriculture and Food Research","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 102655"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nitrogen composition in cv. Monastrell berries under climate change: The role of vineyard management","authors":"M. Esperanza Valdés ,&nbsp;Laura Martín ,&nbsp;Álvaro Vergara ,&nbsp;Raquel Pavo ,&nbsp;M. Victoria Alarcón ,&nbsp;M. Mar Alguacil","doi":"10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102663","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102663","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Environmental conditions strongly influence grape amino acid profiles, which are key for fermentation and wine aroma. However, the combined effects of climate-driven warming and reduced rainfall together with vineyard management on berry amino acid composition remain poorly understood under field conditions. This study evaluated the effects of warming (W) and reduced rainfall (RR) on the nitrogen composition of cv. Monastrell berries under conventional (CON) and organic (ORG) vineyard management systems. A field experiment was established in 2023 in a rainfed vineyard (Murcia, SE Spain) using open-top chambers and rain-exclusion shelters to simulate warming and reduced rainfall respectively, with ambient conditions as controls. Individual amino acids and ammonium were analyzed by HPLC at harvest in 2023 and 2024, and nitrogen parameters including total free amino acids (FAN), yeast-assimilable nitrogen (YAN) and precursor aromatic nitrogen (PAN) were determined. ORG management showed higher amino acid concentrations than CON, with increases exceeding 100 % for GABA and proline. In 2023, climate treatments significantly affected 13 amino acids, whereas vineyard management effects and vineyard management × climate interactions were each significant for 4. Warming increased FAN, AAN, YAN and PAN by 25–75 % under ORG and by 111–160 % under CON, while ammonium increased by 96 % and 28 % under ORG and CON, respectively. Reduced rainfall had negligible effects in both years, confirming temperature as the dominant driver. These findings indicate that warming strongly alters grape nitrogen metabolism, whereas organic management mitigates its impact, supporting its role as a sustainable strategy to preserve nitrogen compounds under future climate scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34393,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agriculture and Food Research","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 102663"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Production and consumption trends of Bili-bili marketed in N'Djamena (Chad): Socio-economic and cultural importance, physico-chemical and hygienic characterization","authors":"Saturnin Naïm ,&nbsp;Laverdure Tchamani Piame ,&nbsp;Edith Marius Foko Kouam ,&nbsp;Michele Létitia Tchabou Tientcheu ,&nbsp;Maxime Merlin Djoufack Tonfack ,&nbsp;François Zambou Ngoufack ,&nbsp;Pierre Marie Kaktcham","doi":"10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102720","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102720","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, low-income consumers of alcoholic beverages in Chad have converged more towards indigenous beverages, such as <em>Bili-bili</em>. Its production and commercialization, is mostly carried out in unhygienic conditions and often in the grey zone, out of the full control of the Chadian government. This study aims to assess socio-economic and cultural importance of <em>Bili-bili</em> commercialized in N'Djamena (Chad) and its physico-chemical and hygienic characteristics. Firstly, a survey was carried among 715 producers and 795 consumers of <em>Bili-bili</em>. Secondly, forty-five samples of <em>Bili-bili</em> were collected and then used to determine the physico-chemical and microbiological characteristics using standard methods. As a result, <em>Bili-bili</em> was produced exclusively by women, of whom 99.3 % considered as a source of income. Beyond being very used in many traditional ceremonies (78.07 %), the consumption of <em>Bili-bili</em> was motivated by its relatively low cost compared to modern alcoholic beers (56.5 %) and its nourishing aptitude (31.9 %). In lasted case, 65.4 % consume it for the pleasure provided by the alcohol content. Also, <em>Bili-bili</em> could not be kept for more than 24 h with a consistent taste (78.16 %). Its consumption sometimes produces undesirable effects in consumers, such as gastric upset, diarrhea, and vomiting (66.62 %), as well as stomach and headache (32.45 %). The <em>Bili-bili</em> produced had a pH (2.99–4.21) and a composition made of proteins (5.63–12.37 %), lipids (0.03–3.78 %), carbohydrates (81.33–89.23 %) and ethanol (2.33–4.60 g/L). Some samples contained aflatoxin (0.13–1.20 μg/L). The microflora included yeasts (7.39–9.36 log CFU/mL), lactic bacteria (7.11–8.44 log CFU/mL), molds (0.45-0. 78 log CFU/mL), <em>Bacillus cereus</em> (3.33–7.61 log CFU/mL) and sulfite-reducing bacteria (0.75–2.08 log CFU/mL). <em>Bili-bili</em> production has a remarkable socio-economic and cultural importance. However, its hygienic quality remains mediocre, making it a spread of spoilage and/or pathogenic bacteria.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34393,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agriculture and Food Research","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 102720"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Drought and low nitrogen impact on finger millet yield and grain nutrition","authors":"Chami Rampati Dewage ,&nbsp;Mohan K. Bista ,&nbsp;Nuwan K. Wijewardane ,&nbsp;Raju Bheemanahalli","doi":"10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102634","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102634","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dry and nutrient-poor soils pose a significant threat to food and nutritional security. Finger millet (<em>Eleusine coracana</em> [L.] Gaertn.), a climate-resilient nutraceutical crop, shows promise in such soils. However, reproductive-stage performance of this crop under low-nitrogen and drought conditions has been overlooked relative to that of major cereals. This study evaluated the growth, yield, and grain nutrient-related trait responses of finger millet under control (CNT), low nitrogen (LN), drought stress (DS), and combined LN + DS conditions. Although all stresses imposed at flowering delayed days to maturity, DS had a greater negative impact on yield components, whereas LN significantly affected grain nutrient content. The yield loss was highest under combined stress (54 %), followed by DS (30 %) and LN (15 %). Although the harvest index remained stable under individual stress, it declined by 25 % under combined stress. The phosphorus, potassium, calcium, sulfur, and iron content of grain remained unchanged under all stresses. However, nitrogen under DS and copper, zinc, and boron under LN increased significantly. Therefore, the observed increases likely reflect a combination of concentration effects and sustained or improved nutrient uptake and remobilization, rather than seed size reduction alone. Yield components responded in the order LN + DS &gt; DS &gt; LN, while grain nutrient responses were highest under LN and LN + DS and lowest under DS. This study highlights resilience and biofortification potential of finger millet under marginal soils. Future studies should prioritize elucidating the molecular mechanisms that regulate multi-stress tolerance during the critical growth stage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34393,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agriculture and Food Research","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 102634"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145928727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The effect of climate shocks on food price inflation, India","authors":"M. Santhosh Kumar ,&nbsp;N. Venkatesa Palanichamy ,&nbsp;K.M. ShivaKumar ,&nbsp;M. Chandrakumar ,&nbsp;M. Kalpana ,&nbsp;D. Murugananthi","doi":"10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102636","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102636","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate shocks are reshaping food price dynamics in India, with implications for macroeconomic stability and stabilization policy. This study estimates the dynamic effects of droughts, extreme temperatures, floods, and storms on food inflation using annual data for 1970–2024 and the local projections framework (horizons k = 0 … 5). Climate shocks are measured both as (i) binary event indicators and (ii) population-adjusted intensity (deaths per 100,000), winsorized and standardized. Estimation uses OLS with HAC/Newey–West standard errors and controls for inflation persistence, lagged shocks, output gap, monetary conditions, and external-sector variables. Results show strong heterogeneity across shock types. In intensity specifications, drought intensity raises cumulative food inflation in the medium run, becoming significantly positive by k = 3 (β = 0.5245∗∗∗) and peaking at k = 4 (β = 1.2154∗∗∗), with a still-positive effect at k = 5 (β = 0.4626∗∗∗). Flood intensity produces short-run disinflation (k = 1: β = −1.5215∗∗) but turns positive by k = 5 (β = 1.1597∗), consistent with stabilization policy followed by delayed catch-up. Storm intensity shows short-run disinflation (k = 1: β = −1.1304∗∗; k = 2: β = −1.2764∗) while extreme temperature intensity is negative and significant at k = 2 (β = −0.9971∗∗). State-dependent estimates indicate materially different transmission in slack conditions, reinforcing the role of macro context in climate–price pass-through. Policy implications emphasize drought-resilience investments (irrigation, climate-resilient seeds, buffer stocks), rapid post-flood logistics restoration, and explicit integration of climate risk into inflation forecasting and food-market stabilization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34393,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agriculture and Food Research","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 102636"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}