PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Trade Deficits: Causes, Effects and Remedies","authors":"H. Kyambalesa","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3471015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3471015","url":null,"abstract":"This article is designed to explore the causes of trade deficits, the effects of trade deficits, policy options facing national governments in dealing with trade imbalances, and a comment on U.S. tariffs. Firstly, however, let us briefly consider what is referred to as the \"balance of trade,\" which may be defined as the difference between the monetary value of a country’s exports of goods (X) and the monetary value of its imports of goods (M). The difference can ordinarily be said to be favorable (meaning that X – M > 0) or unfavorable (implying that X – M < 0). \u0000 \u0000If a country’s trade with another country yields a favorable outcome (that is, X – M > 0), the trade culminates into what is referred to as a trade surplus for the country. If, on the other hand, the country’s involvement in trade yields an unfavorable outcome (that is, X – M < 0), the trade yields what is referred to as a trade deficit for the country. \u0000 \u0000Therefore, a “trade deficit” essentially represents a greater outflow of a country’s currency reserves to any specific trading partner in exchange for goods from the trading partner relative to the inflow of currency reserves from the trading partner in exchange for goods from the trading partner, assuming that the country’s consumers and business entities have the wherewithal to pay for imports from the trading partner’s economic units. \u0000 \u0000It is important to note here that the excess of a country’s outflow of its currency reserves over the inflow of currency reserves is essentially wiped out by earnings realized by local retailers of a portion of goods imported into the country. \u0000 \u0000It is perhaps also important to make a distinction between any given country’s balance of trade (defined above) and its balance of international indebtedness, which portrays the difference between assets owned by a country’s nationals in foreign countries and those owned by foreigners in the country, and which is also referred to alternately as a country’s international investment position. \u0000 \u0000A country can use data pertaining to its “international investment position” to project the inflow of income through investments made within its borders by foreign investors, and the flow of payments (in the form of dividends and/or interest) to be repatriated to foreign investors’ home countries (see Salvatore, 1990:438-439). \u0000 \u0000The difference between income inflows and disbursements can, therefore, enable a country to determine whether it is a net “debtor nation” or a net “creditor nation” with respect to the concept of the “international investment position.” \u0000 \u0000Private investments made in foreign countries by a country’s local investors can improve the country’s “international investment position” if they are greater than investments made by foreign private investors in the country. For countries which have an abundance of capital for investment in their domestic economies and are no longer in need of rapid economic growth (such as G-7 nations), it is perhaps de","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130145554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can Trade Closedness Generate Production Desgrowth? The Case of U.S.-China Trade War","authors":"Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3449095","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3449095","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is interested to show an alternative method to evaluate the impact of trade and non-trade barriers on the final production of any country. Hence, this paper presents a new method is entitled “The Trade Disputes Sensibility Analysis (TDS-Analysis).” The main idea to build the TDS-Analysis is to propose a serial of new indicators to evaluate trade disputes such as the trade closedness index (Ĉ-Index) and the production desgrowth Function (Ð-Function). To implement the TDS-Analysis requests to measure firstly the Ĉ-Index. Secondly the calculation of the Ð-Function based on measure four sub-Ð-Functions (for the agriculture sector, industrial sector, manufacturing sector, and service sector). The measure of the four sub-Ð-Functions can facilitate the final specialization, production restructuration, and policies for each country in the same trade conflict. Finally, this paper applies the TDS-Analysis in the case of U.S. and China trade dispute respectively.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125489263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Gravity Estimations with FDI Bilateral Data: Potential FDI Effects of Deep Preferential Trade Agreements","authors":"H. Kox, H. Rojas‐Romagosa","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3457319","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3457319","url":null,"abstract":"This study employs a structural gravity model to analyse the impact of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI). We use the UNCTAD global database on bilateral FDI stocks and flows. To control for the heterogenous nature of PTAs, we employ two different indicators of PTA depth. We find that ’deeper’ or comprehensive PTAs (e.g. including provisions on investment, public procurement and intel- lectual property rights provision) have a significant positive impact on bilateral FDI between partners. The deepest PTA is expected to increase bilateral FDI stocks between signatory countries by around 54%. As an example, we analyse the potential impact on foreign direct investment of the economic co-operation agreement signed by the Pacific Alliance countries (Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru) in 2012.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128957216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Effects of Trump Trade Policy on China’s Economic Performance","authors":"Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada, Donghyun Park, Minsoo Lee, N. Apergis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3418240","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3418240","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we perform different simulations to assess the effect of the Trump administration’s international trade policy on the Chinese and American economies in the next five years. To do so, we develop a new economic simulator, namely the “Foreign Trade War Smash Wave Effect Simulator (FTWSWE-Simulator).” The FTWSWE-Simulator is based on the concept of the inter-spaces leaking coordinate system. We apply the FTWSE-Simulator to simulate a large trade war between U.S. and China under different tariff rates (1%, 5%, 25%, 50%, and 100%) to evaluate the final impact on its ratio of exports, ratio of imports, production capacity, unemployment levels, income desgrowth, inflation levels, and poverty levels in the two countries between 2020 and 2025.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123046575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From NAFTA to USMCA: Providing Context for a New Era of Regional Investor-State Dispute Settlement","authors":"K. Gore","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3412709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3412709","url":null,"abstract":"In October 2018, Trump, alongside his Mexican and Canadian counterparts, delivered what many have dubbed “NAFTA 2.0.” But the new U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) adopts not only a new name, but also a new approach to ISDS within its Chapter 14. On November 30, 2018 the leaders of all three nations signed the USCMA and now it is up to the legislatures of each country to ratify the Treaty. It remains to be seen whether Chapter 14’s ISDS scheme will remain intact during the ratification process. Regardless, NAFTA is now a historic relic and we face a new era in regional ISDS. This raises salient questions on motivation and timing. Criticisms of NAFTA are not new. Indeed they have been around since its very early days. So why the focus on renegotiating now and what does the shift from NAFTA Chapter 11 to USMCA Chapter 14 mean for the future of regional ISDS (and, indeed, global dispute resolution)? These developments and questions are considered in three parts. Part I reviews NAFTA’s Chapter 11, including its substantive protections, dispute resolution mechanisms, and general criticisms after twenty-five years of experience. Part II presents context for the emergence of USMCA, followed by an analysis of its Chapter 14 identifying key changes from the former NAFTA regime. Finally, Part III provides concluding remarks and attempts to place USCMA within broader regional and global shifts in international affairs, trade, and dispute resolution.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"53 25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128717597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"US-China Rivalry: The Macro Policy Choices","authors":"R. Tyers, Yixiao Zhou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3392102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3392102","url":null,"abstract":"Stylized representations of recent US and Chinese tax reforms, tariffs against imports and alternative Chinese monetary targeting are examined using a calibrated global macro model that embodies both trade and financial interdependencies. For both countries, unilateral capital tax relief and bilateral tariffs are shown to be “beggar thy neighbor” in consequence with tariffs most advantageous for the US if revenue finances consumption tax relief. China is nonetheless a net loser when these policies are implemented unilaterally by the US, irrespective of its policy response, though a currency float is shown to cushion the effects on its GDP in the short run. Equilibria in normal form non-cooperative tariff games exhibit spill-overs that are substantial but insufficient to deter dominant strategies. The US imposes tariffs while China liberalizes, sustaining fiscal balance via consumption tax relief in the US and expenditure restraint in China.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121025187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Persisting US Trade Deficit Is Protectionism the Right Answer?","authors":"Riccardo Fiorentini","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3387390","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3387390","url":null,"abstract":"On January 22, 2018, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on $8.5 billion of imports of solar panel and $1.8 billion for washing machines. This move marked the beginning of what is now considered a trade war the USA is fighting against China and other traditional American trade partners. The “official” motivation for President Trump’s trade war is that the persisting US trade deficit depends on “unfair competition” by trade partners. Tariffs are therefore seen as a political tool for levelling the field of international trade. In this paper we present and discuss two main objections to this view: the first is that current and trade account disequilibria are ultimately due to differences between domestic savings and investments driven by macroeconomic fundamentals which in general do not depend only on the trade policies of foreign countries. The second objection consists in the fact that the role of the US dollar as the “world’s money” in the current asymmetric international monetary system makes the US trade deficit both inevitable and sustainable in the long run. Protectionist measures may reduce bilateral deficits but cannot eliminate the overall structural trade deficit unless they permanently affect the domestic savings-investment balance. Il persistente disavanzo estero degli USA: la risposta giusta e il protezionismo? Il 22 gennaio 2018 l’Amministrazione Trump diede inizio a una guerra commerciale con la Cina e diversi tradizionali alleati degli USA imponendo dazi sulle importazioni di per un valore di 1,8 miliardi di dollari. La motivazione “ufficiale” della guerra commerciale del Presidente Trump e che il disavanzo commerciale di lungo periodo degli Stati Uniti e causato da politiche competitive “sleali” messe in campo dagli altri paesi. In questo lavoro presentiamo due obbiezioni principali a questa tesi. La prima e che gli squilibri commerciali di un paese sono in ultima analisi causati dalle differenze tra risparmio e investimento aggregato a loro volta guidati da variabili macroeconomiche interne che in generale non dipendono dalle politiche commerciali dagli altri paesi. La seconda obbiezione e che il ruolo chiave del dollaro nell’attuale sistema monetario mondiale asimmetrico rende il disavanzo estero degli USA inevitabile ma nel contempo sostenibile nel lungo periodo. Politiche protezionistiche possono ridurre deficit bilaterali ma non possono eliminare un disavanzo complessivo a meno che non riescano ad influenzare in modo permanente il saldo interno tra risparmio e investimento.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"109 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124242418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic Coercion in an Independent Era: China Responds to the THAAD Crisis","authors":"Kacie Miura","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3387583","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3387583","url":null,"abstract":"China uses economic coercion against smaller commercial partners, as well as large economies that contribute to its own economic success. For example, following South Korea’s deployment in March 2017 of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system, China adopted a range of informal economic sanctions. At the subnational level, some local leaders quietly shielded commercial ties to South Korea from escalating political tensions, but many others, despite lacking explicit orders from the center, forced Korean retail stores to close, suspended contracts with Korean investors, and waged anti-Korean media campaigns. What explains this variation in local official participation in foreign economic retaliation? I argue that whether a city’s economy is dependent on commerce with a targeted foreign state, and whether a city’s leaders are politically vulnerable, shape their responses to international political crises.<br><br>Utilizing an original dataset of sentiment analysis scores of local official media, I test this theory first in the context of local official management of anti-Korean sentiment, which played an important role in promoting a consumer backlash against Korean goods. I then provide a case study comparison of local leader treatment of South Korean commercial interests in the cities of Xi’an and Chengdu.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"388 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121877871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Future of UK International Trade Relations Post-Brexit: Options and Constraints","authors":"P. Mariani, G. Sacerdoti","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3361061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3361061","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the future EU-UK post-Brexit trade relations as they can be prefigured on the eve of the UK Parliament third final vote on the Withdrawal Agreement. In its first part, the paper provides a critical evaluation of the Article 50 TEU framework of EU-UK future trade relationship as it emerges by the stand taken by the parties during the negotiations and in the final acts. In its second part, the paper focuses on WTO constraints to the UK post-Brexit international trade with third countries, including those with which the EU has currently trade agreements in place, which will become inapplicable to the UK upon its exit from the EU. \u0000 \u0000The authors point out that it is the Irish backstop - the most sensitive political issue which is conditioning the whole phase of approval of the treaty in the UK – which is also the stumbling block to the ability of the UK post-Brexit to conduct an independent trade policy as sought by the Brexiters, since it implies the UK remaining bound by a custom union to the EU for an indefinite period. \u0000 \u0000In the light of their analysis the authors suggest an alternative solution, that of an “All-Ireland Common No-Custom Area” where products originating in Ulster and the Republic of Ireland would freely circulate in the island, based upon the “frontier traffic” exception of Art. XXIV.3(a) of the GATT.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"109 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121994849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"푸틴 집권 4기 극동개발정책과 한ㆍ러 신경제협력 방향 (Far East Development Policy in Putin’s Fourth Term and New Directions for Korea-Russia Economic Cooperation)","authors":"Joungho Park, Boogyun Kang, Jiyoung Min, S. Lukonin, O. Kuznetsova","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3422611","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3422611","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Korean Abstract:</b> 이 연구는 푸틴 집권 3기와 4기 극동개발정책의 종합적인 평가와 더불어, 동북아 주요국(중국과 일본)의 극동진출 전략에 대한 비교 분석을 통해 한국과 러시아 간 극동지역 신경제협력 방향을 제시하려는 목적으로 수행되었다. 2018년 평창올림픽 이후 한반도의 정세 변화 속에서 한국과 러시아는 신동방정책과 신북방정책의 전략적 접점을 모색하면서 경제협력을 보다 내실화할 필요가 있다. 특히 극동지역에서의 신경제협력은 한반도와 러시아, 그리고 북방유라시아를 연결하는 사업이라는 점에서 신북방정책과 한반도 신경제구상 간의 연계 협력방안이 될 수 있을 것이다.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> In July 2017, the Moon Jae-In administration announced its New Northern Policy, aimed to create a new northern economic space and strengthen connectivity between Korea and the Eurasian continent. Vitalizing Korea–Russia economic cooperation is an important factor in realizing the policy. In this regard, Korea needs to come up with new economic cooperation measures which correspond to Russia’s socio-economic conditions, industrial policy and regional development plans. This study focuses on Russia’s Far East development policies and Korea’s measures to cooperate in the region. The Russian Far East has abundant natural resources and is situated relatively close to Korea. However, high living costs and poor housing and transport infrastructure conditions deteriorate the quality of life in the Far East, resulting in chronic depopulation. Moreover, the commodity-dependent industrial structure has to be improved and diversified for sustainable economic growth. Considering all these factors, this study suggests to seek cooperation in the Far East’s key and growing industries such as the mining, transport, fishery sectors. In addition, Korea can foster new cooperation projects in the high technology and services sectors.<br><br>The Far East development policy carried out in Putin’s third term was targeted mainly at regional development and investment promotion. The major achievements of the policy can be summarized as the establishment of an institutional base, such as with the advanced development zones, Vladivostok free ports and the Far East Hectares. The challenges in the coming years will be to specify development plans and investment projects, improve the business climate, and raise the quality of life, among others. The policy will continue in a similar manner during Putin’s fourth term as well, but with more focus on increasing the quality of life. Whether the ultimate goal of the policy will be successfully achieved is now up to whether the authorities can find appropriate ways to distribute benefits from development while efficiently managing the institutions that have been adopted.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127804727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}