International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control最新文献

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Public perception of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in Denmark: Support or reluctant acceptance? 丹麦公众对碳捕集与封存生物能源的看法:支持还是勉强接受?
IF 4.6 3区 工程技术
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104187
Paula Ugarte-Lucas , Jette Bredahl Jacobsen
{"title":"Public perception of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in Denmark: Support or reluctant acceptance?","authors":"Paula Ugarte-Lucas ,&nbsp;Jette Bredahl Jacobsen","doi":"10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104187","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104187","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on negative emissions technologies like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). However, little is known about public support for BECCS. This paper gauges Danes’ willingness to pay (WTP) for biomass with carbon capture and storage and examines factors influencing it. Denmark is a suitable case study given its reliance on biomass and negative emissions to achieve climate targets. Results from a questionnaire-based survey indicate a mean WTP of 3072 DKK (412 EUR) per household per year. This correspondents to a 12% increase in heat and electricity expenses. The need for negative emissions is the main stated reason for WTP. This may be interpreted as reflecting either support for, or reluctant acceptance of, BECCS. Results show that being younger, being concerned about climate change and believing that it is mainly caused by human activity, and believing in the mitigation potential of biomass and that sustainability is a precondition of its use have a significant effect on WTP. Public views on BECCS are complex but must be acknowledged if discussion of the role of BECCS in the decarbonisation agenda is to move forward.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":334,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control","volume":"136 ","pages":"Article 104187"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1750583624001300/pdfft?md5=6336e8a322c7a9d9f504a34153560d25&pid=1-s2.0-S1750583624001300-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141486231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
New and accurate thermodynamic property data of CO2-EGS relevant working fluids with data fitted to existing thermodynamic models CO2-EGS 相关工作流体的新的精确热力学特性数据,以及与现有热力学模型相匹配的数据
IF 4.6 3区 工程技术
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104192
Jacob Stang , Anders Austegard , Yannick Jooss , Maciej Szymanek , Anna Sowiżdżał
{"title":"New and accurate thermodynamic property data of CO2-EGS relevant working fluids with data fitted to existing thermodynamic models","authors":"Jacob Stang ,&nbsp;Anders Austegard ,&nbsp;Yannick Jooss ,&nbsp;Maciej Szymanek ,&nbsp;Anna Sowiżdżał","doi":"10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104192","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104192","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The article presents a new setup for the accurate measurements of the phase behaviour of CO<sub>2</sub> mixtures relevant to CCS as well as a CO<sub>2</sub>-H<sub>2</sub>O working fluid for EGS, designed to cover the temperature range from -60 to 200 °C and up to 100 MPa in pressure. Included in the article are a description of the experimental setup, methodology, and results of the experimental campaign conducted in the SINTEF Energy Research labs for the EnerGizerS project. Phase equilibrium of the CO<sub>2</sub>-water system has been investigated at the temperature of 50 °C and pressures between 1 and 17.5 MPa, using the analytical isothermal technique. These measurements are compared and verified against the existing data, followed by a presentation of the fit of GERG-2008/EOS-CG for CO<sub>2</sub> and H<sub>2</sub>O. The maximum mole fraction of water in the CO<sub>2<img></sub>H<sub>2</sub>O mixture at measured conditions should not exceed 0.35 % and even less than 0.3481 % at 7.8 MPa to maintain the vapour phase of the mixture. The accuracy with respect to GERG-2008/EOS-CG varies from 1.044 % to 10.683 % near the critical values of sCO<sub>2</sub>. The estimated uncertainty of the setup is 31 mK for temperature measurements, from 0.4 to 2.5 kPa for pressure measurements and from 0.2 to 2.1 % of total combined relative uncertainty as regards the mole fraction. Despite the fact that the EGS reservoir could reach conditions above 150 °C and 50 MPa, lower values were adopted to validate the setup at 50 °C. Knowledge gaps at higher pressure and temperature values are still in dire need of filling.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":334,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control","volume":"136 ","pages":"Article 104192"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S175058362400135X/pdfft?md5=412a17165aad7a10764577a0750eceba&pid=1-s2.0-S175058362400135X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141582699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corrosion performance of A3 carbon steel in 30wt.% MEA and AMP-MEA blends for post-combustion carbon capture: Effect and mechanism of corrosion inhibitors 用于燃烧后碳捕集的 A3 碳钢在 30wt.% MEA 和 AMP-MEA 混合物中的腐蚀性能:缓蚀剂的作用和机理
IF 4.6 3区 工程技术
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104186
Yuwei Wang , Mengxiang Fang , Jun Gao , Chao Li , Yan Huang , Lin Yang , Shuifei Li , Ximing Hu , Tao Wang
{"title":"Corrosion performance of A3 carbon steel in 30wt.% MEA and AMP-MEA blends for post-combustion carbon capture: Effect and mechanism of corrosion inhibitors","authors":"Yuwei Wang ,&nbsp;Mengxiang Fang ,&nbsp;Jun Gao ,&nbsp;Chao Li ,&nbsp;Yan Huang ,&nbsp;Lin Yang ,&nbsp;Shuifei Li ,&nbsp;Ximing Hu ,&nbsp;Tao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104186","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104186","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The corrosion behavior of A3 carbon steel in 30 wt.% MEA and AMP-MEA (2:1) blended amine solutions, two typical CO<sub>2</sub> capture solvents for chemical absorption processes, was investigated. The inhibition effects of imidazoline, sodium metavanadate (NaVO<sub>3</sub>), and phosphoric acid, triethanolamine salt (P-TEA) were evaluated using various electrochemical testing techniques and immersion corrosion experiments. Results showed that NaVO<sub>3</sub> exhibited the highest corrosion inhibition effect at a concentration level of 1000 ppm, while imidazoline showed limited effectiveness. Both NaVO<sub>3</sub> and P-TEA significantly increased solution resistance and charge transfer resistance, thereby enhancing corrosion inhibition. Additionally, AMP-MEA blends exhibited improved corrosion performance compared to MEA, with the formation of a denser protective layer on the surface of A3 carbon steel. Furthermore, experimental results revealed that NaVO<sub>3</sub> and P-TEA, instead of forming protective oxide or carbonate layers, formed complexes or chelates with iron ions in the solution. These compounds adsorbed onto the carbon steel surface, effectively preventing further corrosion. These findings provide valuable insights into the corrosion behavior of A3 carbon steel in amine-CO<sub>2<img></sub>H<sub>2</sub>O systems and underscore the potential of NaVO<sub>3</sub> and P-TEA as effective corrosion inhibitors. This knowledge is crucial for developing enhanced corrosion control strategies in related industrial applications.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":334,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control","volume":"136 ","pages":"Article 104186"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141486268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
AI enhanced data assimilation and uncertainty quantification applied to Geological Carbon Storage 将人工智能增强型数据同化和不确定性量化应用于地质碳储存
IF 4.6 3区 工程技术
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104190
Gabriel Serrão Seabra , Nikolaj T. Mücke , Vinicius Luiz Santos Silva , Denis Voskov , Femke C. Vossepoel
{"title":"AI enhanced data assimilation and uncertainty quantification applied to Geological Carbon Storage","authors":"Gabriel Serrão Seabra ,&nbsp;Nikolaj T. Mücke ,&nbsp;Vinicius Luiz Santos Silva ,&nbsp;Denis Voskov ,&nbsp;Femke C. Vossepoel","doi":"10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104190","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104190","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the integration of machine learning (ML) and data assimilation (DA) techniques, focusing on implementing surrogate models for Geological Carbon Storage (GCS) projects while maintaining the high fidelity physical results in posterior states. Initially, we evaluate the surrogate modeling capability of two distinct machine learning models, Fourier Neural Operators (FNOs) and Transformer UNet (T-UNet), in the context of CO<sub>2</sub> injection simulations within channelized reservoirs. We introduce the Surrogate-based hybrid ESMDA (SH-ESMDA), an adaptation of the traditional Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ESMDA). This method uses FNOs and T-UNet as surrogate models and has the potential to make the standard ESMDA process at least 50% faster or more, depending on the number of assimilation steps. Additionally, we introduce Surrogate-based Hybrid RML (SH-RML), a variational data assimilation approach that relies on the randomized maximum likelihood (RML) where both the FNO and the T-UNet enable the computation of gradients for the optimization of the objective function, and a high-fidelity model is employed for the computation of the posterior states. Our comparative analyses show that SH-RML offers a better uncertainty quantification when compared to the conventional ESMDA for the case study.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":334,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control","volume":"136 ","pages":"Article 104190"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1750583624001336/pdfft?md5=bccdad97e356d9b8d0adc3afc6073529&pid=1-s2.0-S1750583624001336-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141582690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Performance of novel carbonate-based CO2 post-combustion capture process 基于碳酸盐的新型二氧化碳燃烧后捕获工艺的性能
IF 4.6 3区 工程技术
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control Pub Date : 2024-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104173
Tuula Kajolinna , Kristian Melin , Onni Linjala , Johannes Roine
{"title":"Performance of novel carbonate-based CO2 post-combustion capture process","authors":"Tuula Kajolinna ,&nbsp;Kristian Melin ,&nbsp;Onni Linjala ,&nbsp;Johannes Roine","doi":"10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104173","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A novel carbonate-based CO<sub>2</sub> capture process was developed at VTT, and proof-of-concept was tested using a bench scale device. The process has closed-loop, carbonate liquid, and the captured CO<sub>2</sub> is released at under-pressure. The temperature is around 65 °C, which enables, for example, utilisation of waste heat streams in process integrations. The process performance and its parameters were tested using 8 w-% sodium carbonate liquid with simulated gases, real flue gases and biogas. Also, the absorption mass transfer kinetics and suitable flow parameters of the invented microbubble generator were assessed. The device has successfully and continuously run for tens of hours, and the typical CO<sub>2</sub> capture rate between 72 and 84 % were performed at the liquid pH value of 9.3, using a near-atmospheric pressure process. Mass transfer rates k<sub>L</sub>a for carbonate liquid and air were between 0.14 and 0.34 <em>s</em><sup>−1</sup>, which indicates efficient gas absorption, enabling size reduction of the device size.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":334,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control","volume":"136 ","pages":"Article 104173"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1750583624001166/pdfft?md5=6a1224e61ee2cde1491399d8ee31a8e0&pid=1-s2.0-S1750583624001166-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141434131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Implications of the EU ETS on the level-playing field between carbon capture storage & utilisation 欧盟排放交易计划对碳捕集、封存和利用之间公平竞争的影响
IF 3.9 3区 工程技术
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104165
Flore Verbist , Jelle Meus , Jorge Andrés Moncada , Pieter Valkering , Erik Delarue
{"title":"Implications of the EU ETS on the level-playing field between carbon capture storage & utilisation","authors":"Flore Verbist ,&nbsp;Jelle Meus ,&nbsp;Jorge Andrés Moncada ,&nbsp;Pieter Valkering ,&nbsp;Erik Delarue","doi":"10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104165","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104165","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>System modelling efforts have shown that carbon capture is a key technology to enable a cost-effective reduction of hard-to-abate emissions in energy-intensive industries. The CO<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> that is captured can either be utilised (CCU), or stored with carbon capture and storage (CCS). This paper examines the implications of both European carbon pricing mechanisms (ETS I &amp; ETS II) on the level-playing field between CCS and CCU investments. Our contribution is threefold. First, we develop an equilibrium model that enables us to mimic market outcomes under different regulatory conditions. With a numerical case study applied to a fuel production chain, the model confirms that the current ETS regulation can have an adverse effect on CCU uptake. Especially with zero or low ETS II prices a lock-in effect can occur on CCS, potentially prolonging conventional refinery activities. Second, we propose an alternative approach to better integrate CCUS into the EU ETS. Results show that this approach maintains the level-playing field between CCU and CCS, regardless of any carbon price differentials. That results in a closer to Pareto optimal outcome in terms of welfare and emission abatement. Third, we present an analytic analysis to express the CCUS trade-off from a theoretical point of view. This provides generalised and concrete insights into how EU ETS influences the profitability and likelihood of CCUS. Our results help policymakers to gain a better understanding of the impact of ETS regulations on decarbonisation efforts in the industry.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":334,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control","volume":"136 ","pages":"Article 104165"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141429197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
CCS technological innovation system dynamics in Norway 挪威二氧化碳捕获和储存技术创新系统动态
IF 3.9 3区 工程技术
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control Pub Date : 2024-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104171
Markus Steen , Allan Dahl Andersen , Jørgen Finstad , Teis Hansen , Jens Hanson , Kristin Jordal , Tuukka Mäkitie , Amber Nordholm , Marianne Ryghaug , Artur Santoalha
{"title":"CCS technological innovation system dynamics in Norway","authors":"Markus Steen ,&nbsp;Allan Dahl Andersen ,&nbsp;Jørgen Finstad ,&nbsp;Teis Hansen ,&nbsp;Jens Hanson ,&nbsp;Kristin Jordal ,&nbsp;Tuukka Mäkitie ,&nbsp;Amber Nordholm ,&nbsp;Marianne Ryghaug ,&nbsp;Artur Santoalha","doi":"10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104171","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104171","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>CO<sub>2</sub> Capture and Storage (CCS) is today seen as a key technology to cut carbon emissions in many hard-to-abate sectors such as energy-intensive processing industries and the waste sector. Although CO<sub>2</sub> capture is technically possible, key challenges for realizing CCS persist. Over the past decade, CCS has taken a new direction with more focus on application in energy-intensive industries rather than the energy sector. For CCS value chains to materialize, innovation and implementation thus needs to occur amongst an array of actors, with different innovation modes, institutions, and policy regimes, and with varying sectoral capacities for adaptation and change. There has so far been limited social science research on CCS innovation dynamics, which we suggest approaching as a <em>socio-technical change process.</em> To better understand this process, we draw on the sustainability transitions research field and employ the Technological Innovation System (TIS) framework to study the CCS innovation system in Norway. We find that, overall, the Norwegian CCS TIS displays systemic weaknesses for example in the form of market formation and resource mobilization, yet recent developments suggest a relatively positive momentum for this technological field which is key to meeting Norwegian and global climate mitigation targets.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":334,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control","volume":"136 ","pages":"Article 104171"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1750583624001142/pdfft?md5=203ae25c098771e0137ad6d9b889348e&pid=1-s2.0-S1750583624001142-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141423618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Design optimisation of a variable flow CO2 pipeline – A statistical approach 变流量二氧化碳管道的设计优化 - 一种统计方法
IF 3.9 3区 工程技术
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control Pub Date : 2024-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104170
M. Azhar , G.A. Fimbres Weihs , D.E. Wiley
{"title":"Design optimisation of a variable flow CO2 pipeline – A statistical approach","authors":"M. Azhar ,&nbsp;G.A. Fimbres Weihs ,&nbsp;D.E. Wiley","doi":"10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104170","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104170","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Pipeline transport has emerged as the most cost-effective method for transporting CO<sub>2</sub> onshore. The CO<sub>2</sub> flow rate is a key factor driving transport costs, underscoring the need to understand the impact of flow rate variability in CO<sub>2</sub> pipeline networks on their design and economics. This paper presents an optimal pipeline design methodology for CO<sub>2</sub> pipelines operating under variable flow that considers the probability distribution of CO<sub>2</sub> flow rate and the pipeline length. The results imply that pipelines designed for optimal performance under variable flow rates often demand a higher level of overdesign compared to pipelines intended for steady-state conditions. Decision-makers must balance the trade-offs between pipeline oversizing and installing multiple pressure boosting stations, especially applicable to large transportation distances and projects of extended duration. The examination of different approaches to pipeline design reveals that a variable flow pipeline design based on mean flow rate is not recommended, because it is incapable of handling the maximum flow rate. This drawback is overcome by adopting the variable flow stochastic pipeline design presented in this paper.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":334,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control","volume":"136 ","pages":"Article 104170"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1750583624001130/pdfft?md5=6a6a595581d098fe1a00478db2f5df80&pid=1-s2.0-S1750583624001130-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141323482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Experimentally assessing the uncertainty of forecasts of geological carbon storage 通过实验评估地质碳储存预测的不确定性
IF 3.9 3区 工程技术
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104162
Jan M. Nordbotten , Martin Fernø , Bernd Flemisch , Ruben Juanes , Magne Jørgensen
{"title":"Experimentally assessing the uncertainty of forecasts of geological carbon storage","authors":"Jan M. Nordbotten ,&nbsp;Martin Fernø ,&nbsp;Bernd Flemisch ,&nbsp;Ruben Juanes ,&nbsp;Magne Jørgensen","doi":"10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104162","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104162","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Geological storage of carbon dioxide is a cornerstone in almost every realistic emissions reduction scenario outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our ability to accurately forecast storage efficacy is, however, mostly unknown due to the long timescales involved (hundreds to thousands of years). To study perceived forecast accuracy, we designed a double-blind forecasting study. As ground truth, we constructed a laboratory-scale carbon storage operation, retaining the essential physical processes active on the field scale, within a time span of five days. Separately, academic groups with experience in carbon storage research were invited to forecast key carbon storage efficacy metrics. The participating groups submitted forecasts in two stages: First independently without any cross-group interaction, then finally after workshops designed to share and assimilate understanding between the forecast groups. Their confidence in reported forecasts was monitored throughout the forecasting study. Our results show that participating groups provided forecasts that appear bias-free with respect to carbon storage as a technology, yet the forecast intervals are too narrow to capture the ground truth (overconfidence bias). When asked to qualitatively self-assess their forecast uncertainty (and later when asked to provide an external assessment of other forecast groups), the assessment of the participants indicated an understanding that the forecast intervals (both their own and those of others) were too narrow. However, the participants did not display an understanding of how poorly the forecast intervals calibrated to the ground truth. The quantitative uncertainty assessments contrast the qualitative comments supplied by the participants, which indicate an acute awareness of the challenges associated with assessing the uncertainty of forecasts for complex systems such as the geological storage of carbon dioxide.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":334,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control","volume":"135 ","pages":"Article 104162"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1750583624001051/pdfft?md5=a268b0874b22b43af2d95e31f43bfdd8&pid=1-s2.0-S1750583624001051-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141244428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Amine-based CO2 capture on-board of marine ships: A comparison between MEA and MDEA/PZ aqueous solvents 海船上的胺基二氧化碳捕获:MEA 和 MDEA/PZ 水溶剂之间的比较
IF 3.9 3区 工程技术
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104168
Fethi Khaled , Esam Hamad , Michael Traver , Christos Kalamaras
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