Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series最新文献

{"title":"Cross Country Estimates of Peer Effects in Adolescent Smoking Using IV and School Fixed Effects","authors":"D. McVicar","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2024639","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2024639","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents micro-econometric evidence on peer effects in adolescent smoking between classmates aged 15/16 years across 13 European countries. Both instrumental variables and school fixed effects are used for identification. Omitting school fixed effects, as in some existing IV studies of peer effects, is shown to lead to substantial overestimates consistent with endogenous sorting into schools. When fixed effects are included, estimated peer effects range from 0.04 to 0.34 depending on the instrument set. The preferred estimate uses the smoking behaviour of peers’ older siblings to instrument for peer smoking behaviour and suggests a statistically insignificant peer effect of 0.16. This estimate is robust to restricting the sample by dropping schools that non-randomly sort pupils into classes. Ultimately, we cannot rule out zero peer effects in smoking between adolescent classmates in Europe.","PeriodicalId":331095,"journal":{"name":"Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series","volume":"59 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124681698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Dominance Criterion for Measuring Income Inequality from a Centrist View: The Case of Australia","authors":"Francisco Azpitarte, Olga Alonso‐Villar","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2008021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2008021","url":null,"abstract":"This paper introduces a new Lorenz dominance criterion that allows ranking income distributions according to centrist measures a la Seidl and Pfingsten (1997). In doing so, it defines a-Lorenz curves by adapting the generalized Lorenz curves to this case. In addition, it provides an empirical illustration of these tools using Australian income data for the period 2001–2008. The results suggest that despite the reduction of relative inequality, inequality increased for most centrist value judgments.","PeriodicalId":331095,"journal":{"name":"Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series","volume":"112 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124804792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Experimental Change from Paper-Based Interviewing to Computer-Assisted Interviewing in the Hilda Survey","authors":"N. Watson, Roger Wilkins","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2018624","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2018624","url":null,"abstract":"Most large-scale ongoing face-to-face surveys which began using pen and paper interviewing (PAPI) face an eventual shift to computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI). In preparation for such a shift in the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, a trial of the CAPI collection mode was undertaken in the 2007 test sample. This involved a split-sample test of 764 households, where interviewers rather than households were randomly assigned to the PAPI or CAPI mode. This paper reports on the findings of this split sample test, both in terms of the fieldwork operations and the quality of the data collected. Apart from some concerns about the length of the interview, few differences were identified in the data collected by the two modes. Where CAPI differed from PAPI, it was generally in the direction thought to enhance data quality rather than reduce it.","PeriodicalId":331095,"journal":{"name":"Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121081206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Dutch Disease in Australia: Policy Options for a Three-Speed Economy","authors":"W. M. Corden","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2018642","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2018642","url":null,"abstract":"This paper expounds the concept of Dutch Disease as it applies currently to Australia, noting the various gains and losses resulting from the Australian mining boom. “Dutch Disease�? refers to the adverse effects through real exchange rate appreciation that such a boom can have on various export and import-competing industries. Particular firms or industries may be both gainers and losers. The distinction is made between the Booming Sector (mining), the Lagging Sector (exports not part of the Booming Sector, and import-competing goods and services), and the Non-tradable Sector. The main discussion focuses on policy options, given a floating exchange rate regime. What should the government do – if anything – to reduce or avoid this Dutch “disease�?? The principal options are: Do nothing, piecemeal protectionism, and run a fiscal surplus, combined with lowering the interest rate and possibly establishing a Sovereign Wealth Fund. Piecemeal protectionism is likely to be politically popular but there are strong arguments against it. The costs of any measures that successfully moderate real appreciation of the exchange rate and thus Dutch Disease effects are noted, and may be considerable. This is “exchange rate protection�?. Gains to some industries are likely to be balanced by losses to others. It is shown, surprisingly, that a fiscal surplus that is financed by taxation of the profits of the Booming Sector may not significantly moderate real appreciation. The reason is that this sector is to a significant extent foreign owned. An issue is whether firms and industries can be clearly divided into those that belong to the Non-tradable Sector and those that belong to the Lagging Sector, the latter being the losers from Dutch Disease. If such a clear distinction cannot usually be made, then the case for “doing nothing�? is strengthened.","PeriodicalId":331095,"journal":{"name":"Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114541973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unexpected Victims: How Parents' Unemployment Affects Their Children's Life Satisfaction","authors":"John P. Haisken-DeNew, M. Kind","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2006040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2006040","url":null,"abstract":"The effects of unemployment on the subjective wellbeing (SWB) of the unemployed on the unemployed are well documented. Using data from the German SOEP for 17-25 year olds living with their parents, this paper examines the additional indirect effects of parents’ unemployment on their children’s subjective wellbeing in an attempt to capture the full impact of unemployment. The reason for entry (exogenous versus endogenous) into unemployment plays a major role. Fathers who enter unemployment exogenously affect their son’s SWB negatively, as do mothers who enter into unemployment endogenously. Parental unemployment has no impact on daughters’ SWB.","PeriodicalId":331095,"journal":{"name":"Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114308887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pitfalls in Economic Thinking","authors":"Maher Diab Kababji","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1902705","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1902705","url":null,"abstract":"In order that an organized body of knowledge might be classified as science, its hypothetical laws must be based on facts. Unlike any other social science, fallacies are the root of the technique of thinking in economics. By the lapse of time, theses fallacies have been accepted as if they represent a part of the natural life which people have to live with. Viewing inflation as natural phenomenon: Present economic systems are designed to produce inflation in order to concentrate wealth in few hands. Economists recognize the harmful impact of inflation on societies. Inflation arises, mainly, because prices include additional charges that do not represent an element of the real cost of factors of production. Viewing money as a valuable commodity: Money is no longer a real product or a substitute of a product. Credit money represents most of the money in circulation. The role of money is broadened out of its scope of function as a valueless medium of exchange. Money plays an inflationary role, becomes profit generator and its quantity controls economic activities. Money is a social invention introduced to facilitate exchange transactions. Currency backing is inherently ridiculous tradition that limits economic growth. Viewing lending and speculative activities as economic activities: Huge amount of resources are directed toward financial activities searching for private gain on account of public loss. A historical review of financial crises explains the destructive role of financial activities on societies and the failure of monetary remedies to prevent the ghastly impacts on economic growth. Economic activities have its origin in the wants of communities. Its main purpose is the satisfaction of those wants. Production is meant the activities which result in the creation of utilities.Believing that free market does not exist in reality: Human interventions, legalized monopolies, and speculative activities are impediments to market freedom. Market is free by its nature. Free interaction of market forces makes demand and supply fluctuate to determine fair prices of products. Believing that growth of public services is the way for redistribution of income: In capitalism, redistribution policies which are based on welfare systems do not provide financial security to all individuals. In socialism, redistribution policies which are based on state ownership of means of production do not respect the right of private property.Present economic systems failed to realize prosperity. Poverty is rising and living standard of middle class is declining. Taking into consideration the complexity of present economies, different approach has been taken to identify economic topics. The views expressed here are undoubtedly drastically different from the views held by other researchers. This research assumes full responsibility of inflation for the failure of present economic systems to achieve the objective of prosperity. In its first chapter, the research gives differen","PeriodicalId":331095,"journal":{"name":"Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129415793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"With or Without You: Hazard of Divorce and Intra-Household Allocation of Time","authors":"Domenico Tabasso","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1802171","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1802171","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the relationship between the probability of divorce and marriage specific investments. As these investments in terms of childcare and household activities are likely to increase the marital surplus, they are consequently likely to decrease the risk of divorce. All such activities, however, are characterized by gender role bias through, for example, social norms. In periods in which married women enjoy greater outside options (e.g., by increasing their labor force participation), it is expected that households in which the husband takes on typically female chores are less likely to dissolve, while couples in which the wife takes on typically male chores are more likely to divorce. The paper tests this hypothesis using data from the National Longitudinal Survey NLS) of Mature Women, the NLS Young Women, and the NLSY79. The prediction is strongly supported by the data with respect to older cohorts while it loses empirical relevance when tested on younger individuals. Furthermore, asymmetric effects between genders gain importance over time. Finally, an explanation for the relationship between divorce and marital investments is offered in terms of increasing intra-household time consumption complementarities. To this end, data from the American Time Use Surveys from 1965 to 2005 are studied to illustrate how time spent together by partners in the same household has become increasingly crucial in the American family.","PeriodicalId":331095,"journal":{"name":"Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131525394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Effect of Disability Pension Incentives on Early Retirement Decisions","authors":"B. Broadway","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1793002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1793002","url":null,"abstract":"I investigate the incentive effects of disability pensions on the labour supply decision. The implicit tax rate on further work is included as a forward looking incentive measure in order to investigate the effect of disability benefits on disability retirement entry as a special type of early retirement. A substantial change of the disability pension legislation caused exogenous variation in disability benefits in Germany in 2001 and is used to obtain estimates of individual’s responses to financial incentives. Benefit levels appear to have no effect on the labour market behaviour. At the same time, there is a sizable and significant disincentive effect of implicit taxes on labour market income, indicating that alleviating such disincentives would likely increase labour force participation. Since the response to financial incentives occurs mainly among those in good health, such a policy might on the other hand imperil the aim of providing insurance against a health induced loss of ones working capacity.","PeriodicalId":331095,"journal":{"name":"Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series","volume":"162 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132286733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting Short-Term Interest Rates: Does Bayesian Model Averaging Provide Forecast Improvement?","authors":"Chew Lian Chua, Sandy Suardi, S. Tsiaplias","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1792982","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1792982","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the forecasting qualities of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) over a set of single factor models of short-term interest rates. Using weekly and high frequency data for the one-month Eurodollar rate, BMA produces predictive likelihoods that are considerably better than the majority of the short-rate models, but marginally worse off than the best model in each dataset. We observe preference for models incorporating volatility clustering for weekly data and simpler short rate models for high frequency data. This is contrary to the popular belief that a diffusion process with volatility clustering best characterizes the short rate.","PeriodicalId":331095,"journal":{"name":"Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127666665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Household Survey Panels: How Much Do Following Rules Affect Sample Size?","authors":"Matthias Schonlau, N. Watson, M. Kroh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1736591","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1736591","url":null,"abstract":"In household panels, typically all household members are surveyed. Because household composition changes over time, so-called following rules are implemented to decide whether to continue surveying household members who leave the household (e.g. former spouses/partners, grown children) in subsequent waves. Following rules have been largely ignored in the literature leaving panel designers unaware of the breadth of their options and forcing them to make ad hoc decisions. In particular, to what extent various following rules affect sample size over time is unknown. From an operational point of view such knowledge is important because sample size greatly affects costs. Moreover, the decision of whom to follow has irreversible consequences as finding household members who moved out years earlier is very difficult. We find that household survey panels implement a wide variety of following rules but their effect on sample size is relatively limited. Even after 25 years, the rule “follow only wave 1 respondents” still captures 85% of the respondents of the rule “follow everyone who can be traced back to a wave 1 household through living arrangements”. Almost all of the remaining 15% live in households of children of wave 1 respondents who have grown up (5%) and in households of former spouses/partners (10%). Unless attrition is low, there is no danger of an ever expanding panel because even wide following rules do not typically exceed attrition.","PeriodicalId":331095,"journal":{"name":"Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series","volume":"127 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115001916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}