{"title":"The Low-Pay No-Pay Cycle: Are There Systematic Differences Across Demographic Groups?","authors":"Y. Fok, R. Scutella, Rogers Wilkins","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2338263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2338263","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate transitions between unemployment, low-paid employment and higher-paid employment using household panel data for the period 2001 to 2011. Dynamic panel data methods are used to estimate the effects of labour force status on subsequent labour force status. A distinctive feature of our study is the investigation of heterogeneity in the effects of unemployment and low-paid employment on future employment prospects. We find that there is state dependence in both unemployment and low-paid employment and clear evidence of a low-pay no-pay cycle for both men and women. Significant differences in effects across different subgroups of the population are, however, found. Typically, the young and the better educated face less severe penalties from unemployment or low-paid employment, and, for women, the cycle between low pay and no pay varies across subgroups. Moreover, in the case of men who have completed secondary schooling but have no further qualifications, low-paid employment actually decreases the chances of entering higher-paid employment by more than unemployment does. This is not the case for women, however, who clearly have a higher likelihood of entering higher-paid employment from low-paid employment than from unemployment, regardless of their age, education level or other characteristics.","PeriodicalId":331095,"journal":{"name":"Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series","volume":"352 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116262281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Understanding Changes in Progressivity and Redistributive Effects: The Role of Tax-Transfer Policies and Labour Supply Decisions","authors":"N. Hérault, Francisco Azpitarte","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2344509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2344509","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we propose a framework to study changes in the redistributive consequences of income taxes and transfers. In contrast with previous approaches the new method allows decomposition of the change in the redistributive impact into four components: the immediate effect of changes in the tax-transfer system in the absence of labour supply responses; the effect of labour supply changes induced by changes in the tax-transfer system; the effect of all other labour supply changes; and a residual capturing the variation not explained by the previous factors. We illustrate the use of our decomposition method by analysing the changes in the redistributive impact of the tax and transfer system in Australia between 1999 and 2007. We find that labour supply changes, and in particular the increase in employment rates over the period, explain to a large extent the observed reduction in the redistributive effect of the tax-transfer system. A sizable part of these labour supply changes were found to be direct responses to tax-transfer reforms. Interestingly, we find that tax reforms were not responsible for the observed reduction in tax progressivity.","PeriodicalId":331095,"journal":{"name":"Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132161101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Right Peer, Right Now? Endogenous Peer Effects and Achievement in Victorian Primary Schools","authors":"D. McVicar, Julie Moschion, C. Ryan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2289084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2289084","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents estimates of endogenous peer effects in pupils’ school achievement using data on national test scores, across multiple subjects and cohorts, for the population of primary school pupils in Years 3 and 5 (aged 7/8 and 9/10 years) in the Australian state of Victoria. Identification is achieved via school-grade fixed effects and instrumental variables (IV), exploiting plausibly random differences in the age distribution of peers and their gender mix across cohorts. The results provide strong evidence for the existence of endogenous peer effects across all subjects, with the IV estimates close in magnitude to the corresponding fixed-effects estimates, although less precisely estimated. In reading, for example, a one point increase in peers’ average test scores leads to between a .14 and .39 point increase in own test score, with similar ranges across other subjects.","PeriodicalId":331095,"journal":{"name":"Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130262371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Family Socio-Economic Status, Childhood Life-Events and the Dynamics of Depression from Adolescence to Early Adulthood","authors":"P. Contoyannis, Jinhu Li","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2240073","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2240073","url":null,"abstract":"This paper employs a conditional quantile regression approach to quantify the dynamics of depression among adolescents, and examine the extent of true state dependence in youth depression conditional on unobserved individual heterogeneity and family socio5economic status. We use data on the children of the US National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 79 cohort (CNLSY79) and employ a recently5developed instrumental variable approach for the estimation of dynamic quantile regression models with fixed effects. Our results suggest that true state dependence in youth depression is very low and the observed positive association between previous depression and current depression is mainly due to time5invariant unobserved individual heterogeneity. The results also show heterogeneity in true state dependence in youth depression across quantiles of the depression distribution.","PeriodicalId":331095,"journal":{"name":"Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132155362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Perceived Job Discrimination in Australia: Its Correlates and Consequences","authors":"Markus H. Hahn, Roger Wilkins","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2244601","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2244601","url":null,"abstract":"We use data from a nationally representative Australian household panel survey to examine the extent and nature of self-reported job discrimination, its correlates, and its associations with various employment outcomes and measures of subjective wellbeing. We find that approximately 8.5% of job applicants and 7.5% of employees report being discriminated against in the preceding two years, most commonly on the basis of their age. Gender is found to be a common factor predicting perceived discrimination in both job applications and in the course of employment, but the determinants of these two types of discrimination are otherwise somewhat different. In particular, age is a significant determinant of perceived discrimination in job applications only, while being a mother of young children is a significant factor only for discrimination in the course of employment. We also find that, holding other traits constant, ethnic and religious minorities are not significantly more likely to perceive they have been discriminated against. Little evidence of adverse effects of perceived job discrimination is found for wage levels, wage changes and the probability of promotion, but we find large negative effects on subjective outcomes such as job satisfaction and self-assessed probability of job loss.","PeriodicalId":331095,"journal":{"name":"Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133256302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Trust, Incomplete Contracts and the Market for Technology","authors":"P. Jensen, Alfons Palangkaraya, Elizabeth Webster","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2226727","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2226727","url":null,"abstract":"Conditional on the decision to enter the market for immature technology, we test for the effects that trust – as proxied by the context in which the negotiating parties met – has on the likelihood that these negotiations are successful. Using a randomised dataset of 860 university-firm and firm-firm technology transactions, we find that the depth of prior relationship and circumstantial knowledge about each other matters, and matters a lot. Parties who knew each other from a previous business are 28.2 percentage points more likely to conclude a transaction compared with cold-callers. Meeting via an industry network offers an intermediate advantage but meeting via a third party or at a conference only offers a modest advantage over cold calling.","PeriodicalId":331095,"journal":{"name":"Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134327173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Earnings Mobility and Inequality: An Integrated Framework","authors":"Paul Gregg, Claudia Vittori, R. Scutella","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2191771","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2191771","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we propose an integrated framework for the analysis of earnings inequality and mobility, which enables the analysis of the distributional dimension of inequality reduction from mobility, an assessment of the economic drivers of mobility and a sense of which drivers are equalising and dis-equalising. In particular we are able to capture the extent to which life-cycle characteristics, key life events, job related characteristics, and changes in working time affect overall mobility and inequality. The framework also offers a bounded approach to isolating the underlying inequality reduction resulting from mobility from measurement error which can otherwise lead to a substantial upward bias. Using data from the Australian HILDA survey we find evidence of a sizable degree of earnings mobility in Australia over the years 2001/2 to 2008/9. The raw inequality reduction resulting from economic mobility was 0.148 Gini points from an initial estimate of 0.368, however, the bounded range based on two alternative versions of two stage estimation lies between 0.072 and 0.102 or between 1/4 and 1/3 of original inequality. We show how the inequality reduction from mobility is primarily driven in the bottom part of the initial distribution, with the upper tail being particularly prone to measurement issues. A sizeable part of the identified mobility is simply driven by age-earnings growth that sees more rapid wage increases for younger workers and wage progression among women in notably stronger in reducing inequality because they start lower in distribution. Yet this rather smooth picture of earnings rising with age is shown to be substantially driven by a series of less frequent step changes associated with job-to-job moves, promotions and taking on more responsibility. There are also shocks which run against this equalising process, most notably job loss, which has substantial negative effects on earnings and disproportionately falls on lower waged workers.","PeriodicalId":331095,"journal":{"name":"Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133827687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Peer Effects in Adolescent Cannabis Use: It's the Friends, Stupid","authors":"J. Moriarty, D. McVicar, K. Higgins","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2192259","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2192259","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines peer effects in adolescent cannabis use from several different reference groups, exploiting survey data that have many desirable properties and have not previously been used for this purpose. Treating the school grade as the reference group, and using both neighbourhood fixed effects and IV for identification, we find evidence of large, positive, and statistically significant peer effects. Treating nominated friends as the reference group, and using both school fixed effects and IV for identification, we again find evidence of large, positive, and generally statistically significant peer effects. Our preferred IV approach exploits information about friends of friends – ‘friends once removed’, who are not themselves friends – to instrument for friends’ cannabis use. Finally, we examine whether the cannabis use of schoolmates who are not nominated as friends – ‘non-friends’ – influences own cannabis use. Once again using neighbourhood fixed effects and IV for identification, the evidence suggests zero impact. In our data, schoolmates who are not also friends have no influence on adolescent cannabis use.","PeriodicalId":331095,"journal":{"name":"Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series","volume":"776 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123284351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Decomposing Differences in Labour Force Status between Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Australians","authors":"G. Kalb, T. Le, Boyd H. Hunter, Felix Leung","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2146409","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2146409","url":null,"abstract":"Despite several policy efforts to promote economic participation by Indigenous Australians, they continue to have low participation rates compared to non-Indigenous Australians. This study decomposes the gap in labour market attachment between Indigenous and non- Indigenous Australians in non-remote areas, combining two separate data sources in a novel way to obtain access to richer information than was previously possible. It shows that among women at least two thirds of the gap can be attributed to differences in the observed characteristics between the two populations. For men, the differences in observed characteristics of the two populations can account for 36 to 47 percent of the gap. A detailed decomposition shows that lower education, worse health, and larger families (particularly for women) explain the lower labour market attachment of Indigenous Australians to a substantial extent. Compared with previous studies, this study is able to explain a larger proportion of the gap in employment between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people due to being able to include a larger set of explanatory variables.","PeriodicalId":331095,"journal":{"name":"Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series","volume":"89 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124528225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Locating and Designing 'Journeys Home': A Literature Review","authors":"R. Scutella, G. Johnson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2084444","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2084444","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we review previous longitudinal research on homelessness with the aim of identifying the necessary design features of Journeys Home to enable researchers and policy makers to fill the gaps in our knowledge of the causes and consequences of homelessness. We show that despite substantial progress in homelessness research in some areas, particularly in the areas of definition and enumeration, there remains a need for large scale longitudinal data to better understand pathways into and out of homelessness. This requires a survey that is representative of a broader population of people experiencing homelessness as well as people vulnerable to homelessness. A large sample of this sort will enable researchers to rigorously examine pathways into and out of homelessness, the structural and individual level causes of homelessness, and key outcomes of homelessness.","PeriodicalId":331095,"journal":{"name":"Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research Working Paper Series","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128922167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}