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Robust Predictions in Coasian Bargaining 高斯议价中的稳健预测
IF 8.5 1区 经济学
American Economic Review-Insights Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210144
Heng Liu
{"title":"Robust Predictions in Coasian Bargaining","authors":"Heng Liu","doi":"10.1257/aeri.20210144","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20210144","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies robust predictions when players may have additional information in an otherwise standard seller-offer bargaining with private values. Players’ extra information gives rise to higher-order uncertainties about the underlying surplus. We show that the equilibrium outcomes in the frequent-offer limit depend critically on the nature of second-order uncertainty: (i) when the seller’s beliefs about the buyer’s values are public, the limiting equilibrium outcomes are efficient and any surplus division is possible; (ii) when the seller’s beliefs are private, any feasible and individually rational payoffs can be the limiting equilibrium payoffs.(JEL C78, D82, D83)","PeriodicalId":29954,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review-Insights","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47989012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Persuasion with Correlation Neglect: A Full Manipulation Result 忽略相关的说服：一个完全操纵的结果
IF 8.5 1区 经济学
American Economic Review-Insights Pub Date : 2022-03-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210007
Gilat Levy, Inés Moreno de Barreda, R. Razin
{"title":"Persuasion with Correlation Neglect: A Full Manipulation Result","authors":"Gilat Levy, Inés Moreno de Barreda, R. Razin","doi":"10.1257/aeri.20210007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20210007","url":null,"abstract":"We consider an information design problem in which a sender tries to persuade a receiver that has “correlation neglect,” i.e., fails to understand that signals might be correlated. We show that a sender with unlimited number of signals can fully manipulate the receiver. Specifically, the sender can induce the receiver to hold any state-dependent posterior she wishes to. If the sender only wishes to induce a state-independent posterior, she can use fully correlated signals, but generally she needs to design more involved correlation structures. (JEL D82, D83)","PeriodicalId":29954,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review-Insights","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47827763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Gotta Have Money to Make Money? Bargaining Behavior and Financial Need of Microentrepreneurs 有钱才能赚钱?微型企业家的议价行为与融资需求
IF 8.5 1区 经济学
American Economic Review-Insights Pub Date : 2022-03-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20200723
Morgan Hardy, G. Kagy, L. Song
{"title":"Gotta Have Money to Make Money? Bargaining Behavior and Financial Need of Microentrepreneurs","authors":"Morgan Hardy, G. Kagy, L. Song","doi":"10.1257/aeri.20200723","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20200723","url":null,"abstract":"Bargaining over real prices with microenterprise owners in Ghana, we show that sellers with less per capita household liquidity agree to lower sale prices. This relationship is robust across firms and within firms over time, even after controlling for a plethora of time-varying observables. A computerized bargaining experiment, with randomized initial payout sizes, corroborates the real-bargaining findings. This pattern can be explained by an application of classical bargaining theory that includes endowments and utility functions with decreasing absolute risk aversion. The potential poverty-multiplying implications of pricing behavior is a key frontier in understanding barriers to the profitability of microenterprises. (JEL D22, G51, L25, L26, O12, O14)","PeriodicalId":29954,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review-Insights","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47868595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Motivated Beliefs and Anticipation of Uncertainty Resolution 动机信念与对不确定性解决的预期
IF 8.5 1区 经济学
American Economic Review-Insights Pub Date : 2022-03-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20200829
Christoph Drobner
{"title":"Motivated Beliefs and Anticipation of Uncertainty Resolution","authors":"Christoph Drobner","doi":"10.1257/aeri.20200829","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20200829","url":null,"abstract":"Manipulating subjects’ expectations about the resolution of uncertainty, I show that subjects update beliefs about ego-relevant information optimistically when they expect no resolution of uncertainty but neutrally when they expect immediate uncertainty resolution. This finding highlights an important channel of the supply side of motivated beliefs and informs the discussion about the puzzling evidence on belief updating about ego-relevant information. Moreover, I document that subjects ex post rationalize information by manipulating their stated beliefs about the ego-relevance of the underlying event depending on the valence of information. This result suggests an additional channel that subjects use to protect their ego utility. (JEL D81, D83, D84)","PeriodicalId":29954,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review-Insights","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44058153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 16
Cognitive Decline, Limited Awareness, Imperfect Agency, and Financial Well-being 认知衰退、有限意识、不完全代理与经济幸福
IF 8.5 1区 经济学
American Economic Review-Insights Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.3386/w29634
J. Ameriks, Andrew Caplin, Minjoon Lee, M. Shapiro, Christopher Tonetti
{"title":"Cognitive Decline, Limited Awareness, Imperfect Agency, and Financial Well-being","authors":"J. Ameriks, Andrew Caplin, Minjoon Lee, M. Shapiro, Christopher Tonetti","doi":"10.3386/w29634","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w29634","url":null,"abstract":"Cognitive decline may lead older Americans to make poor financial decisions. Preventing poor decisions may require timely transfer of financial control to a reliable agent. Cognitive decline, however, can develop unnoticed, creating the possibility of suboptimal timing of the transfer of control. This paper presents survey-based evidence that older Americans with significant wealth regard suboptimal timing of the transfer of control, in particular delay due to unnoticed cognitive decline, as a substantial risk to financial well-being. This paper provides a theoretical framework to model such a lack of awareness and the resulting welfare loss. (JEL G51, G53, H55, J14, J26, J32)","PeriodicalId":29954,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review-Insights","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48677064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cheating with Models 模特作弊
IF 8.5 1区 经济学
American Economic Review-Insights Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20200635
K. Eliaz, R. Spiegler, Y. Weiss
{"title":"Cheating with Models","authors":"K. Eliaz, R. Spiegler, Y. Weiss","doi":"10.1257/aeri.20200635","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20200635","url":null,"abstract":"Beliefs and decisions are often based on confronting models with data. What is the largest “fake” correlation that a misspecified model can generate, even when it passes an elementary misspecification test? We study an “analyst” who fits a model, represented by a directed acyclic graph, to an objective (multivariate) Gaussian distribution. We characterize the maximal estimated pairwise correlation for generic Gaussian objective distributions, subject to the constraint that the estimated model preserves the marginal distribution of any individual variable. As the number of model variables grows, the estimated correlation can become arbitrarily close to one regardless of the objective correlation. (JEL D83, C13, C46, C51)","PeriodicalId":29954,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review-Insights","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43759103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model 多组SIR模型中的最优目标锁定
IF 8.5 1区 经济学
American Economic Review-Insights Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20200590
D. Acemoglu, V. Chernozhukov, I. Werning, M. Whinston
{"title":"Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model","authors":"D. Acemoglu, V. Chernozhukov, I. Werning, M. Whinston","doi":"10.1257/aeri.20200590","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20200590","url":null,"abstract":"We study targeted lockdowns in a multigroup SIR model where infection, hospitalization, and fatality rates vary between groups—in particular between the “young,” the “middle-aged,” and the “old.” Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of optimal policy. For baseline parameter values for the COVID-19 pandemic applied to the US, we find that optimal policies differentially targeting risk/age groups significantly outperform optimal uniform policies and most of the gains can be realized by having stricter protective measures such as lockdowns on the more vulnerable, old group. Intuitively, a strict and long lockdown for the old both reduces infections and enables less strict lockdowns for the lower-risk groups. (JEL H51, I12, I18, J13, J14)","PeriodicalId":29954,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review-Insights","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46127526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 126
The COVID-19 Pandemic Disrupted Both School Bullying and Cyberbullying 新冠肺炎疫情扰乱了校园欺凌和网络欺凌
IF 8.5 1区 经济学
American Economic Review-Insights Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/w29590
Andrew Bacher-Hicks, J. Goodman, J. Green, Melissa K. Holt
{"title":"The COVID-19 Pandemic Disrupted Both School Bullying and Cyberbullying","authors":"Andrew Bacher-Hicks, J. Goodman, J. Green, Melissa K. Holt","doi":"10.3386/w29590","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w29590","url":null,"abstract":"One-fifth of US high school students report being bullied each year. We use internet search data for real-time tracking of bullying patterns as COVID-19 disrupted in-person schooling. We first show that pre-pandemic internet searches contain useful information about actual bullying behavior. We then show that searches for school bullying and cyberbullying dropped 30–35 percent as schools shifted to remote learning in spring 2020. The gradual return to in-person instruction starting in fall 2020 partially returned bullying searches to pre-pandemic levels. This rare positive effect may partly explain recent mixed evidence on the pandemic’s impact on students’ mental health and well-being. (JEL H75, I12, I21, I28, I31)","PeriodicalId":29954,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review-Insights","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49488020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 43
A Taste of Their Own Medicine: Guideline Adherence and Access to Expertise 品尝自己的药物：遵循指南和获得专业知识
IF 8.5 1区 经济学
American Economic Review-Insights Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.3386/w29356
Amy N. Finkelstein, Petra Persson, M. Polyakova, Jesse Shapiro
{"title":"A Taste of Their Own Medicine: Guideline Adherence and Access to Expertise","authors":"Amy N. Finkelstein, Petra Persson, M. Polyakova, Jesse Shapiro","doi":"10.3386/w29356","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w29356","url":null,"abstract":"We use administrative data from Sweden to study adherence to 63 medication-related guidelines. We compare the adherence of patients without personal access to medical expertise to that of patients with access, namely doctors and their close relatives. We estimate that observably similar patients with access to expertise have 3.8 percentage points lower adherence, relative to a baseline adherence rate of 54.4 percent among those without access. Our findings suggest an important role in nonadherence for factors other than those, such as ignorance, poor communication, and complexity, that would be expected to diminish with access to expertise.(JEL D82, D83, I11, I12, I18)","PeriodicalId":29954,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review-Insights","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48652799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Enforcing Wealth Taxes in the Developing World: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Colombia 在发展中国家征收财富税:来自哥伦比亚的准实验证据
IF 8.5 1区 经济学
American Economic Review-Insights Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.1257/AERI.20200319
Juliana Londoño-Vélez, Javier Avila-Mahecha
{"title":"Enforcing Wealth Taxes in the Developing World: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Colombia","authors":"Juliana Londoño-Vélez, Javier Avila-Mahecha","doi":"10.1257/AERI.20200319","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/AERI.20200319","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the feasibility of wealth taxation in developing countries. It uses rich administrative data from Colombia and leverages a government-designed program for voluntary disclosures of hidden wealth as well as the threat of detection triggered by the Panama Papers leak. There are two key findings. First, there is substantial (primarily offshore) evasion: two-fifths of the wealthiest 0.01 percent evade taxes, with these evaders concealing one-third of their wealth offshore. Second, strengthening enforcement can have a significant impact on wealth tax compliance, tax revenue, and progressivity. These results highlight both challenges and opportunities for wealth taxation in the developing world. (JEL D31, G51, H24, H26, K34, O15)","PeriodicalId":29954,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review-Insights","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41471328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 43
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