ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"Monetary Incentives and Mortgage Renegotiation Outcomes","authors":"N. Lazaryan, Urvi Neelakantan","doi":"10.21144/EQ1020203","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21144/EQ1020203","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the effect of monetary incentives on mortgage renegotiation. Lenders are sometimes willing to renegotiate mortgage contracts with homeowners who are at risk of foreclosure. This paper models the renegotiation process as a simple sequential move game in which the homeowner first seeks renegotiation and the lender responds by deciding whether or not to modify the terms of the mortgage. The model is used to examine outcomes in the presence of monetary incentives given to the homeowner and lender like those given by U.S. government programs during the recent foreclosure crisis. The results show that, in the absence of monetary incentives, lenders renegotiate with a subset of homeowners who avoid foreclosure as a result. The introduction of incentives expands the set of homeowners who receive modifications and avoid foreclosure. We show that under certain conditions, incentives also lead lenders to renegotiate with homeowners who subsequently end up in foreclosure.","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132688765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"[Investir em tempos de crise (Investing in Times of Crisis)","authors":"André Freitas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2954570","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2954570","url":null,"abstract":"Portuguese Abstract: A crise economica global, que ainda hoje se faz sentir, e que se iniciou apos a crise financeira internacional, precipitada com a inesperada falencia de um dos maiores bancos de investimento mundial, o Lehman Brother’s, a 15 de setembro de 2008, e que teve um efeito domino em muitas outras instituicoes financeiras, passando da maior falencia protagonizada nos Estados Unidos da America, a ter proporcoes a uma escala mundial, afetando grandemente quer o mercado europeu, quer mais particularmente o mercado portugues. Muitos e divergentes foram os estudos relacionados com a resolucao do problema da crise, quer a nivel macroeconomico quer microeconomico, sendo uns, mais defensores de politicas de austeridade e contencao e, pelo contrario, outros, mais defensores de politicas mais ofensivas e de investimento. Neste trabalho, focalizamo-nos principalmente no mercado portugues a nivel microeconomico e, atraves da analise de varios estudos realizados, assim como da recolha de dados concretos, analisamos qual a metodologia mais adequada a ter, numa perspetiva empresarial, para combater a crise. Se a estrategia mais adequada e a de austeridade se, por outro lado, devemos investir contrariando a tendencia atual. Procedeu-se tambem a elaboracao de uma pesquisa quantitativa com um caracter descritivo e exploratorio, atraves de inqueritos a varias empresas, que permitiram a obtencao de varias respostas que, depois de analisadas com recurso a decomposicao em folha de calculo dos resultados obtidos, nos levou a conclusao que o investimento tras crescimento, mesmo em tempos de crise e, que a estrategia a seguir devera ser a do investimento e nao da contracao e austeridade. E esta e a tese que pretendemos apresentar “Investir em tempos de crise”, onde procuramos provar que o investimento e a solucao por forma a contrariarmos a crise. Palavras-chave: Crise Global, falencia, austeridade, investir, empresas, investimento, crescimento. \u0000English Abstract: The economical global crisis, that we still live nowadays, that began with the Lehman Brother’s bankruptcy, one of the biggest financial institutions of the world, in 15th of September of 2008, and that took’s a lot of many others financial institutions to bankruptcy, beginning to be the major bankruptcy company in the United States of America, and transforming it in one of the biggest economical crises worldwide, affecting the European market as well as the Portuguese one. \u0000Many and different were the studies related to the resolution of the problem of the crisis, as in a Macroeconomical way, as Microeconomical, being some people more defenders of the austerity policies and, in the other hand, other’s more defenders in politics more offensives and defending that investments should be made. \u0000In this work, our focus was in the Portuguese market and, by comparing many studies, as well as analyzing concrete data about this subject, our aim was showing the proper methodology, in a business perspective,","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126261956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Solving the Pari Passu Puzzle: The Market Still Knows Best","authors":"Sergio J. Galvis","doi":"10.1093/CMLJ/KMX019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/CMLJ/KMX019","url":null,"abstract":"As a result of the Argentine sovereign debt crisis and ensuing holdout litigation saga, the pari passu (or ranking) clause became a source of great consternation in the international sovereign bond market. Specifically, Judge Griesa’s holding that Argentina had violated the pari passu clause by refusing to pay creditors who had not participated in the nation’s earlier debt exchanges, and accompanying requirement that Argentina had to pay those holdout bondholders, led to uncertainty in the market regarding the leverage holdouts could exercise in sovereign debt restructurings going forward. Concern was expressed over the ability of sovereigns to succeed with voluntary exchange offers premised on the threat that the restructuring sovereign would default on payments due to non-participating bondholders. This article evaluates the impact of the court’s decision in the Argentine litigation to date and discusses the adoption of improved ranking clauses and collective action voting clauses in recent issuances of sovereign debt in the effort to bring greater certainty to market participants and facilitate efficient restructurings in the future without the need for extra-contractual restructuring mechanisms and remedies.","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125920472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Global Crisis, Economics and Economic Behavior: Uncertainty, Expectations and Human Behavior Matters?","authors":"M. Sherstnev","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2947984","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2947984","url":null,"abstract":"The paper analyzes the current discussions on the state of economics with special focus on the interrelationships between key ideas of economic theories and real actions of economic policy in the course of the global economic crisis. The global economic crisis showed the limited ability of mainstream in economics to service the economic practice, and, therefore, the attention of researchers and economic policy-makers was drawn again to some alternative views in economics.","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"261 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116062278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Operational Risk and the Three Lines of Defence in UK Financial Institutions: Is Three Really the Magic Number?","authors":"Kumbirai Mabwe, P. Ring, R. Webb","doi":"10.21314/JOP.2017.187","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/JOP.2017.187","url":null,"abstract":"There has been growing interest in the need for financial services firms to develop and implement robust systems and structures for managing operational risk. While there now appears to be some consensus in terms of definitions, quantification and modelling, firms are struggling with the qualitative side of operational risk management, particularly in relation to financial institutions’ operational risk governance, where the three-lines of defence model has become standardised. At the same time, corporate scandals post-financial crisis continue to indicate deficiencies in operational risk governance. As a result, our paper examines the three lines of defence in the context of operational risk management in UK financial institutions, focusing upon roles and responsibilities and then analyses the effectiveness of the traditional three lines of defence model. We find a lack of common understanding of the lines of defence in financial institutions which is leading to duplication of roles and gaps in coverage. This is concerning for the industry, the economy and regulators","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"201 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114840605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Financial Services Industry and Society the Role of Incentives/Punishments, Moral Hazard, and Conflicts of Interests in the 2008 Financial Crisis","authors":"N. Murray, A. Manrai, Lalita A. Manrai","doi":"10.1108/JEFAS-02-2017-0027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-02-2017-0027","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose – This paper aims to present an analysis of the role of financial incentives, moral hazard and conflicts of interests leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach – The study’s analysis has identified common structural flaws throughout the securitization food chain. These structural flaws include inappropriate incentives, the absence of punishment, moral hazard and conflicts of interest. This research sees the full impact of these structural flaws when considering their co-occurrence throughout the financial system. The authors address systemic defects in the securitization food chain and examine the inter-relationships among homeowners, mortgage originators, investment banks and investors. The authors also address the role of exogenous factors, including the SEC, AIG, the credit rating agencies, Congress, business academia and the business media. Findings – The study argues that the lack of criminal prosecutions of key financial executives has been a key factor in creating moral hazard. Eight years after the Great Recession ended in the USA, the financial services industry continues to suffer from a crisis of trust with society. Practical implications – An overwhelming majority of Americans, 89 per cent, believe that the federal government does a poor job of regulating the financial services industry (Puzzanghera, 2014). A study argues that the current corporate lobbying framework undermines societal expectations of political equality and consent (Alzola, 2013). The authors believe the Singapore model may be a useful starting point to restructure regulatory agencies so that they are more responsive to societal concerns and less responsive to special interests. Finally, the widespread perception is that the financial services sector, in particular, is ethically challenged (Ferguson, 2012); perhaps there would be some benefit from the implementation of ethical climate monitoring in firms that have been subject to deferred prosecution agreements for serious ethical violations (Arnaud, 2010). Originality/value – The authors believe the paper makes a truly original contribution. They provide new insights via their analysis of the role of financial incentives, moral hazard and conflicts of interests leading up to the 2008 financial crisis.","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127689405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Policy Effects in a Simple Fully Non-Linear New Keynesian Model of the Liquidity Trap","authors":"Volker Hahn","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2909525","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2909525","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze a simple yet fully non-linear New Keynesian model with a central bank that pursues an inflation targeting strategy. Our analysis shows that expected adverse productivity shocks may drive the economy into a liquidity trap. As our model entails positive or moderately negative inflation in such a situation, it has the potential to explain the so-called “missing disinflation” in the Great Recession. In contrast with some previous papers, we find that the effects of fiscal policy in a liquidity trap are moderate and that reductions in labor income taxes are expansionary. We do not find support for higher inflation targets. Finally, we provide additional support for the view that the common practice of log-linearizing equilibrium relations can be potentially misleading in models with a lower bound on nominal interest rates.","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131243362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Implications of Global Recession and Structural Changes for Korean Economy","authors":"Minsoo Han, Su Bin Kim, Jinhee Lee","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2946630","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2946630","url":null,"abstract":"We propose the following policy recommendations. First, all our results support the important role played by domestic demand. Both rising inequality and aging population affect Korea's GDP primarily through the private domestic demand channel. In the beginning of the implementation of Chin's Five Year Plan, the external sector is the main driver of boosting an economy. Over time, however, the channel through which domestic demand affects Korea's GDP outweighs external channels such as net export. \u0000Second, the policy to address aging population through raising the fertility rate should take into account the trade-off between current employment and investment and the number of future working-aged population. Because production factors, labor and capital, are complementary in general, a decrease in employment would lead to investment slowdown. On the other hand, raising the fertility rate implies an increase in the future working-aged population. Again due to complementarity between production factors, this can boost investment and pick up growth in the future. Therefore, implementation of policies to address aging should be based on the optimal growth of population and take into account the trade-off between its short run and long run effects. \u0000Third, a single index for income inequality is limited in fully representing all changes in inequality, and the aggregate effect of rising inequality is better captured by tracking down changes in the entire income distribution instead. Populations within the different income groups might play a different role and the aggregate consequences might depend on the entire income distribution. Instead of targeting a single index for inequality, therefore, policy tools to address rising inequality should be grounded by more sophisticated analysis. Finally, depending on factors such as a country's input-output linkages with other countries, moving up and down in global value chains, and whether a country and its trading partners are growing, a country could either gain or lose from an FTA with a specific country. Given that the gain from trade liberalization may not be bilateral in practice, a careful approach to quantify the effect of trade liberalization should be necessary before the implementation of an FTA with a certain country.","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"169 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115099475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"When Prosperity Merges into Crisis: The Decline and Fall of Ohio Life, Political Economy of Bank Suspension, and the Panic of 1857","authors":"Timothy J. Riddiough, H. Thompson","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2888689","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2888689","url":null,"abstract":"The historical record has remained incomplete as to exactly why the Ohio Life failed on August 24, 1857 and what, if any, causal connection existed between the failure and the subsequent panic. Using new information sources, we make three main contributions to the literature. First, we conduct a detailed analysis of how and why Ohio Life’s head cashier, Edwin Ludlow, misappropriated funds to support his stock and bond market operations. Second, we show that when Ohio Life collapsed panic ensued with bank assets transitioning into an information sensitive state. Third, we show that Ohio Life’s failure and the subsequent state transition caused significant uncertainty and hysteresis amongst banks by revealing a critical vulnerability in New York state bank regulation. We conclude that is was the manner in which Ohio Life failed that links it to the panic of 1857.","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"107 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117259703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating Dependence Structure and Risk of Financial Market Crash","authors":"A. Ogunyiola, P. Mwita, Carolyn Njenga","doi":"10.5539/IJSP.V5N6P85","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5539/IJSP.V5N6P85","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we estimate the dependence structure between international stock markets using copulas. Different relationships that exist in normal and extreme periods were estimated using Clayton copula.  The Inference Functions for Margins method was used in estimating the clayton copula parameter thereby obtaining dependence estimates used in estimating Value-at-Risk. Extreme events are likely to alter the dependence structure of financial markets.This could have implications for investment decisions and ability to estimate the risk of financial markets crash. Results reveal that during the crisis period (2007-2009), maximum possible loss of market value is 75.9% and 77.6% with a confidence interval of 90% for the Kenya-Nigeria and Kenya-South Africa portfolios respectively. This implies that the Kenya-South Africa portfolio has the highest risk.","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125807817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}