{"title":"Banking Networks, Systemic Risk, and the Credit Cycle in Emerging Markets","authors":"Sanjiv Ranjan Das, Madhu Kalimipalli, Subhankar Nayak","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3520343","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3520343","url":null,"abstract":"This paper extends a large literature on systemic risk in the US, Europe, and other developed countries to emerging markets, which are relatively under-researched. Findings are based on a large-scale empirical examination of systemic risk among 1048 financial institutions in a sample of 23 emerging markets, broken down into 5 regions, along with 369 U.S. financial institutions. Using an additively decomposable systemic risk score that combines banking system interconnectedness with default probabilities, systemic risk is quantified for each region, across time. The empirical analyses suggest that emerging markets’ systemic risk is heterogeneous across regions, is strongly dependent on the interconnectedness of the banking system within each region, and predicts the level of default risk in each region, while the regions are compartmentalized away from each other and insulated from the United States. The systemic risk score may be used as a policy variable in each emerging market region to manage the credit cycle.","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"22 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114016569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do Investors Still Acknowledge Excessive Corporate Leverage? Understanding Divergence of Valuation During the Age of ZIRP and QE","authors":"D. Galvin, S. Corbet, C. Larkin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3853259","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3853259","url":null,"abstract":"Times of financial crisis generate often irregular monetary policy response. In the past decade, much focus has surrounded zero, and even, negative interest rate policies along with quantitative easing. While corporate borrowing continues to be ‘cheap,’ it is important to analyse as to whether investors have distinctly, and geographically, attributed differential valuations surrounding the use of corporate leverage? Differentiating corporate entities across six of the largest international exchanges, this research focuses on the performance of companies based on time-varying debt/equity performance, with particular emphasis on the implementation of quantitative easing. Results indicate that the average returns of the highly-leveraged firms significantly diverge during both interest rate and quantitative easing events, however, variation is found to be dependent on both the geographical distribution and concentration of leverage in the form of both debt and equity. After a thorough investigation, the results strongly suggest that positive returns are achieved by highly leveraged firms following asset purchasing programmes.","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131022170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Cryptocurrencies and Hyperinflation","authors":"Usman W. Chohan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3320702","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3320702","url":null,"abstract":"This discussion paper considers the monetary role that cryptocurrencies can play as hedges against the crises stemming from hyperinflation. It also briefly examines such a relationship vis-a-vis currency devaluation and monetary defaults. The findings suggest that, for all the legitimate criticisms volleyed against cryptocurrencies (governance, legal, security), there are indeed certain macroeconomic issues which can draw upon the decentralized, apolitical, and deflationary monetary nature of cryptocurrencies. These advantages must then be weighted by monetary policy practitioners against the risks that still linger in the cryptocurrency space.","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133455000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"What are the Driving Forces of Economic Downturn during COVID-19?","authors":"Sanha Noh, In-hong Baek","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3755715","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3755715","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the main driving forces of business cycles and heterogeneity across industries during the COVID-19 crisis in Korea. We build a small open economy model, solved up to the second-order, to fit the stylized facts of business cycles and employ several structural shocks as candidates of driving forces. In contrast to the financial crisis in 2008, the transitory productivity shock is the predominant source, although the permanent productivity shock is assigned less importance during the pandemic. Negative preference shocks rapidly reduce consumption in 2020Q1 but bounce back with upward pressure on consumption growth in 2020Q2. The services sector, especially accommodation and food, is the most adversely affected by structural shocks at the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak.","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130944156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Expanding the Scope of the EU BRR Framework: An Administrative Receivership for the Banking Union","authors":"G. Sciascia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3748525","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3748525","url":null,"abstract":"The global financial crisis of the early ‘00s prompted EU legislators to harmonize the regime for the management of bank crises and to establish a dedicated pillar within the scope of the European Banking Union to centrally manage credit institutions’ failures. Nonetheless, established policy approaches concerning the assessment of the “public interest” condition limit the effective use of resolution procedures to a minority of credit institutions able to meet the systemic importance threshold. In order to prevent the resulting renationalization of crisis management measures for the remaining banks, the scope of the EU BRR framework should be expanded through the establishment of a special bank administrative receivership (BAR) system managed by the SRB. The BAR should represent an alternative to the dichotomy between resolution and NIP, and it should leverage on the combined use of the Sale of Business and the Asset Separation tools, supplemented with DGSs’ bridge financing to realize a smooth transfer of quality assets to third party buyers. The regime should be open to failing credit institutions able to pass a new PIA test based not only on financial stability concerns, but also on an assessment of the value destruction associated with piecemeal liquidation.","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133676373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Financial Sector Transparency, Financial Crises and Market Power: A Cross-Country Evidence","authors":"B. Kusi, E. Agbloyor, A. Gyeke-dako, S. Asongu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3736840","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3736840","url":null,"abstract":"The study investigates how financial sector transparency moderates the influence of financial crises on bank market power across seventy-five economies between 2004 and 2014. Employing two-step dynamic system generalized method of moments the study shows that while public sector-led financial sector transparency reduces bank market power, private sector-led financial sector transparency promotes bank market power given that private sector-led transparency gives financial cost advantage to financially sound banks to solidify the market power and dominance. Similarly, while financial crises reduce the market power of banks implying that during financial crises banks lose their market power, financial sector transparency promotes the negative effect of financial crises on bank market power. This implies that during financial crises, financial sector transparency whether enforced through private or public sector, boosts the weakening effect of financial crises on bank market power. These findings imply that regulators can rely on financial transparency to tame bank market power to enhance banking competitiveness. The findings and results are consistent even when country, time and continental effects are controlled for.","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131261975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do Non-Banks Need Access to the Lender of Last Resort? Evidence from Fund Runs","authors":"J. Breckenfelder, Niklas Grimm, Marie Hoerova","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3843356","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3843356","url":null,"abstract":"When a liquidity crisis hits non-bank financial intermediaries, which central bank interventions help? We show that mutual funds faced unprecedented investor outflows as the COVID-19 shock hit and assess the effectiveness of central bank asset purchases and additional liquidity provision to banks in alleviating the crisis. We use detailed fund-level data and proprietary data on bank take-ups in liquidity-providing operations and bank-fund repo transactions. Analyzing asset purchases, we find that funds with higher shares of assets eligible for central bank purchases in their portfolio before the COVID-19 crisis saw their performance improve by 3.7% and outflows decrease by 66% relative to otherwise similar funds. Analyzing repo activity, we do not find that additional central bank liquidity provision to banks in March 2020 led to more lending to funds trading with their relationship banks. Rather, banks increased the maturity of their lending to funds in the weeks that followed the announcement and the implementation of additional asset purchases. Our results suggest that central bank asset purchases were effective in stopping fire-sale dynamics and staving off runs on non-bank financial intermediaries, even though funds did not have direct access to the lender of last resort.","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"285 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116371647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Financial crises and political radicalization: How failing banks paved Hitler's path to power","authors":"S. Doerr, Stefan Gissler, J. Peydró, H. Voth","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3146746","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3146746","url":null,"abstract":"Do financial crises radicalize voters? We study Germany's banking crisis of 1931, when two major banks collapsed and voting for radical parties soared. We collect new data on bank branches and firm-bank connections of over 5,500 firms and show that incomes plummeted in cities affected by the bank failures; connected firms curtailed their payrolls. We further establish that Nazi votes surged in locations exposed to failing Danatbank, led by a prominent Jewish manager and targeted by anti-Semitic Nazi propaganda. Our results suggest a synergy between cultural and economic factors: Danatbank's collapse boosted Nazi support especially in cities with deep-seated anti-Semitism; and the Nazis gained few additional votes in cities exposed to collapsing Dresdner Bank, which was not the target of Nazi hate speech. Danat-exposed and non-exposed cities were similar in their pre-crisis characteristics and exhibited no differential pre-trends; firms borrowing from Danat had lower leverage before the crisis than other firms. Unobservables are unlikely to account for the results.","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123552240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Liquidity and the Strategic Value of Information","authors":"Ohad Kadan, Asaf Manela","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3645137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3645137","url":null,"abstract":"We offer a simple, intuitive and empirically useful expression quantifying the value of asset-specific information to a strategic trader. The value of information reflects the ratio of return volatility to price impact measured using a version of Kyle's lambda. While volatility and illiquidity are highly correlated, their ratio fluctuates markedly giving rise to considerable variation in the value of information over time and across stocks. Using high frequency data on US stocks, we find that the value of information rises dramatically during crises and on earnings announcement days, and falls at calendar year ends. Furthermore, the value of information is higher for large, growth, and momentum stocks. The most dramatic spikes in the value of information occur at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and the financial crisis of 2008, when the Fed announces novel liquidity facilities. Such policy interventions aimed at improving liquidity may unintentionally increase the private incentives to collect information.","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"181 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120908694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Mandel, T. Tiggeloven, D. Lincke, E. Koks, P. Ward, J. Hinkel
{"title":"Risks on Global Financial Stability Induced by Climate Change","authors":"A. Mandel, T. Tiggeloven, D. Lincke, E. Koks, P. Ward, J. Hinkel","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3626936","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3626936","url":null,"abstract":"There is increasing concern among financial regulators that changes in the distribution and frequency of extreme weather events induced by climate change could pose a threat to global financial stability. In order to assess this risk, we develop a simple model of the propagation of climate-induced shocks through financial networks. Weshow that the magnitude of global risks is determined by the interplay between the exposure of countries to climate-related natural hazards and their financial leverage. Climate change induces a shift in the distribution of impacts towards high-income countries and a thus larger amplification of impacts as the financial sectors of high-income countries are more leveraged. Conversely, high-income countries are more exposed to financial shocks. In high-end climate scenarios, this could lead to the emergence of systemic risk as total impacts become commensurate with the capital of the banking sectors of countries that are hubs of the global financial network. Adaptation policy, or the lack thereof, appears to be one of the key risk drivers as it determines the future exposure of high-income countries.","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127570372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}