金融危机与政治激进化:破产的银行如何为希特勒的权力之路铺路

S. Doerr, Stefan Gissler, J. Peydró, H. Voth
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引用次数: 19

摘要

金融危机会让选民变得激进吗?我们研究了1931年德国的银行业危机,当时两家大银行倒闭,激进政党的支持率飙升。我们收集了5500多家公司的银行分支机构和公司-银行关系的新数据,表明受银行倒闭影响的城市收入大幅下降;有关联的公司削减了他们的工资。我们进一步证实,在丹纳特银行(Danatbank)倒闭的地区,纳粹的选票激增,丹纳特银行由一位杰出的犹太经理领导,并成为反犹太纳粹宣传的目标。我们的研究结果表明,文化和经济因素之间存在协同作用:丹麦银行的倒闭提高了纳粹的支持率,尤其是在反犹主义根深蒂固的城市;在德累斯顿银行(Dresdner Bank)倒闭的城市,纳粹几乎没有获得额外的选票,而德累斯顿银行并不是纳粹仇恨言论的目标。风险暴露城市和非风险暴露城市在危机前特征上相似,在危机前趋势上没有差异;从Danat借款的公司在危机前的杠杆率低于其他公司。不可观察的现象不太可能解释这些结果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Financial crises and political radicalization: How failing banks paved Hitler's path to power
Do financial crises radicalize voters? We study Germany's banking crisis of 1931, when two major banks collapsed and voting for radical parties soared. We collect new data on bank branches and firm-bank connections of over 5,500 firms and show that incomes plummeted in cities affected by the bank failures; connected firms curtailed their payrolls. We further establish that Nazi votes surged in locations exposed to failing Danatbank, led by a prominent Jewish manager and targeted by anti-Semitic Nazi propaganda. Our results suggest a synergy between cultural and economic factors: Danatbank's collapse boosted Nazi support especially in cities with deep-seated anti-Semitism; and the Nazis gained few additional votes in cities exposed to collapsing Dresdner Bank, which was not the target of Nazi hate speech. Danat-exposed and non-exposed cities were similar in their pre-crisis characteristics and exhibited no differential pre-trends; firms borrowing from Danat had lower leverage before the crisis than other firms. Unobservables are unlikely to account for the results.
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