世界经济衰退和结构变化对韩国经济的启示

Minsoo Han, Su Bin Kim, Jinhee Lee
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们提出以下政策建议。一是支持内需发挥重要作用。不平等加剧和人口老龄化都主要通过私人国内需求渠道影响韩国的GDP。在中国实施“五年计划”之初,对外经济是拉动经济增长的主要力量。然而,随着时间的推移,国内需求影响韩国GDP的渠道将超过净出口等外部渠道。其次,通过提高生育率来解决人口老龄化问题的政策应该考虑到当前就业和投资与未来劳动年龄人口数量之间的权衡。因为生产要素,即劳动力和资本,总体上是互补的,所以就业的减少会导致投资的放缓。另一方面,提高生育率意味着未来劳动年龄人口的增加。同样,由于生产要素之间的互补性,这可以促进投资,并在未来加快增长。因此,应对老龄化政策的实施应以人口最优增长为基础,考虑其短期效应与长期效应的权衡。第三,单一的收入不平等指数在全面反映不平等的所有变化方面是有限的,通过追踪整个收入分配的变化,可以更好地捕捉到不平等加剧的总体影响。不同收入群体的人口可能发挥不同的作用,其总体后果可能取决于整个收入分配。因此,解决日益加剧的不平等的政策工具不应以单一的不平等指数为目标,而应以更复杂的分析为基础。最后,根据一国与其他国家的投入产出联系、在全球价值链上的上下游、以及一国与其贸易伙伴是否增长等因素,一国与某一特定国家签订自由贸易协定可能会有收益,也可能会有损失。考虑到贸易自由化的收益在实践中可能不是双边的,在与某个国家实施自由贸易协定之前,有必要仔细量化贸易自由化的效果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Implications of Global Recession and Structural Changes for Korean Economy
We propose the following policy recommendations. First, all our results support the important role played by domestic demand. Both rising inequality and aging population affect Korea's GDP primarily through the private domestic demand channel. In the beginning of the implementation of Chin's Five Year Plan, the external sector is the main driver of boosting an economy. Over time, however, the channel through which domestic demand affects Korea's GDP outweighs external channels such as net export. Second, the policy to address aging population through raising the fertility rate should take into account the trade-off between current employment and investment and the number of future working-aged population. Because production factors, labor and capital, are complementary in general, a decrease in employment would lead to investment slowdown. On the other hand, raising the fertility rate implies an increase in the future working-aged population. Again due to complementarity between production factors, this can boost investment and pick up growth in the future. Therefore, implementation of policies to address aging should be based on the optimal growth of population and take into account the trade-off between its short run and long run effects. Third, a single index for income inequality is limited in fully representing all changes in inequality, and the aggregate effect of rising inequality is better captured by tracking down changes in the entire income distribution instead. Populations within the different income groups might play a different role and the aggregate consequences might depend on the entire income distribution. Instead of targeting a single index for inequality, therefore, policy tools to address rising inequality should be grounded by more sophisticated analysis. Finally, depending on factors such as a country's input-output linkages with other countries, moving up and down in global value chains, and whether a country and its trading partners are growing, a country could either gain or lose from an FTA with a specific country. Given that the gain from trade liberalization may not be bilateral in practice, a careful approach to quantify the effect of trade liberalization should be necessary before the implementation of an FTA with a certain country.
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