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Detecção de mudança de nível em séries temporais não lineares usando Descritores de Hjorth 利用Hjorth描述符检测非线性时间序列中的电平变化
Production Journal Pub Date : 2015-11-27 DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.123313
Gabriela da Fonseca de Amorim, Pedro Paulo Balestrassi, A. P. Paiva, M. Oliveira-Abans
{"title":"Detecção de mudança de nível em séries temporais não lineares usando Descritores de Hjorth","authors":"Gabriela da Fonseca de Amorim, Pedro Paulo Balestrassi, A. P. Paiva, M. Oliveira-Abans","doi":"10.1590/0103-6513.123313","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-6513.123313","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to present a method for detecting the dynamic changes in a nonlinear time series that uses the Hotelling T2 multivariate control chart to monitor the variation in three normalized descriptors: Hjorth's descriptors of activity, mobility and complexity. This approach was applied to different simulated nonlinear time series and is illustrated in this paper with a detailed example. A case study with six time series of short-term electricity load consumption was also used to confirm the method's effectiveness.","PeriodicalId":263089,"journal":{"name":"Production Journal","volume":"137 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115086106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A system dynamics approach to logistics outsourcing policies and decisions 物流外包政策和决策的系统动力学方法
Production Journal Pub Date : 2015-11-27 DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.131413
Raul Arellano Caldeira Franco, H. Yoshizaki, J. Vieira
{"title":"A system dynamics approach to logistics outsourcing policies and decisions","authors":"Raul Arellano Caldeira Franco, H. Yoshizaki, J. Vieira","doi":"10.1590/0103-6513.131413","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-6513.131413","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is based on a revelatory single-case study that uses a system dynamics model to analyze the costs and policies of a distribution logistics outsourcing process (i.e., the warehousing and transportation activities) of a Brazilian consumer packaged goods (CPG) company. The model considers the costs before and after the outsourced operation startup and how these costs influence the net present value (NPV) of the process. The model’s findings suggest policies, such as the reduction of the ex-ante period and the ex-ante reactive and proactive monitoring of operations, to obtain optimal financial results. In addition, the model provides guidelines for the contract lengths and demonstrates that in the outsourcing process, the greatest gains result during periods of low inflation and low interest rates in a stable economy.","PeriodicalId":263089,"journal":{"name":"Production Journal","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126976771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
How to develop technology roadmaps? The case of a Hospital Automation Company 如何制定技术路线图?医院自动化公司的案例
Production Journal Pub Date : 2015-11-27 DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.173614
G. V. Rocha, C. H. P. Mello
{"title":"How to develop technology roadmaps? The case of a Hospital Automation Company","authors":"G. V. Rocha, C. H. P. Mello","doi":"10.1590/0103-6513.173614","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-6513.173614","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents the results of research conducted in a hospital automation company. The research examined the importance of innovation and technology management processes for small companies and how these factors can be developed more successfully. The paper proposes the use of a Technology Roadmapping (TRM) method to assist these companies in the management of their technology processes to better understand the economic and social context in which they operate and to better exploit market opportunities. The results show that Technology Roadmapping can assist these companies in management support and technological planning while exploring and sharing the connection between technological resources, organizational goals and environmental changes. This research addresses the lack of studies on conducting TRM and details the importance of the method.","PeriodicalId":263089,"journal":{"name":"Production Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131308658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Avaliação de Impacto do Ciclo de Vida: revisão dos principais métodos 生命周期影响评估:关键方法的回顾
Production Journal Pub Date : 2015-11-24 DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.153213
Natália Crespo Mendes, Cristiane Bueno, A. Ometto
{"title":"Avaliação de Impacto do Ciclo de Vida: revisão dos principais métodos","authors":"Natália Crespo Mendes, Cristiane Bueno, A. Ometto","doi":"10.1590/0103-6513.153213","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-6513.153213","url":null,"abstract":"Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) is the third phase of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). It involves assessing the environmental significance of inventory results by using characterization models and factors contained in LCIA methods. This paper identifies the main LCIA methods and describes their characteristics. Through a literature review, 13 LCIA methods were identified. Most of them were developed in Europe and have been used throughout the world, including Brazil. Among these methods have been identified those with a global scope of application, being recommended for the use in Brazil. Each LCIA method evaluates different impact categories by means of a number of different characterization models, so it was concluded that there is a need to analyze the calculation procedures used by each model to provide support for the application of these methods and models in different regions of the world.","PeriodicalId":263089,"journal":{"name":"Production Journal","volume":"116 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114520334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 30
A decision model for energy companies that sorts projects, classifies the project manager and recommends the final match between project and project manager 一个能源公司的决策模型，它对项目进行分类，对项目经理进行分类，并推荐项目和项目经理之间的最终匹配
Production Journal Pub Date : 2015-11-24 DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.172314
Elaine C. B. de Oliveira, L. H. Alencar, A. Costa
{"title":"A decision model for energy companies that sorts projects, classifies the project manager and recommends the final match between project and project manager","authors":"Elaine C. B. de Oliveira, L. H. Alencar, A. Costa","doi":"10.1590/0103-6513.172314","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-6513.172314","url":null,"abstract":"This study presents an integrated model to support the process of classifying projects and selecting project managers for these projects in accordance with their characteristics and skills using a multiple criteria decision aid (MCDA) approach. Such criteria are often conflicting. The model also supports the process of allocating project managers to projects by evaluating the characteristics/types of projects. The framework consists of a set of structured techniques and methods that are deemed very appropriate within the context of project management. A practical application of the proposed model was performed in a Brazilian electric energy company, which has a portfolio of projects that are","PeriodicalId":263089,"journal":{"name":"Production Journal","volume":"72 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121942713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Using multi-state markov models to identify credit card risk 利用多状态马尔可夫模型识别信用卡风险
Production Journal Pub Date : 2015-11-24 DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.160814
D. Regis, R. Artes
{"title":"Using multi-state markov models to identify credit card risk","authors":"D. Regis, R. Artes","doi":"10.1590/0103-6513.160814","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-6513.160814","url":null,"abstract":"The main interest of this work is to analyze the application of multi-state Markov models to evaluate credit card risk by investigating the characteristics of different state transitions in client-institution relationships over time, thereby generating score models for various purposes. We also used logistic regression models to compare the results with those obtained using multi-state Markov models. The models were applied to an actual database of a Brazilian financial institution. In this application, multi-state Markov models performed better than logistic regression models in predicting default risk, and logistic regression models performed better in predicting cancellation risk.","PeriodicalId":263089,"journal":{"name":"Production Journal","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129450941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
Fatores chave para o alinhamento estratégico vertical: Survey com executivos brasileiros 垂直战略结盟的关键因素:对巴西高管的调查
Production Journal Pub Date : 2015-11-24 DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.086112
Vanderli Correia Prieto, M. Carvalho
{"title":"Fatores chave para o alinhamento estratégico vertical: Survey com executivos brasileiros","authors":"Vanderli Correia Prieto, M. Carvalho","doi":"10.1590/0103-6513.086112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-6513.086112","url":null,"abstract":"Alignment is a central concept in the field of strategy studies. However, prior research has tended to emphasize the subject in the context of the formulation versus the implementation of strategy. This study contributes to filling this gap by identifying and proposing a framework with key factors to promote strategic vertical alignment. These factors were submitted to 125 Brazilian executives in a quantitative study to evaluate their implementation. The results were evaluated by applying descriptive statistics. The results demonstrated an emphasis on short-term planning, a need to extend the participation of middle management in the formulation process, and gaps in management's capacity to implement strategy. Factors that can enhance people's involvement with the strategy are also discussed.","PeriodicalId":263089,"journal":{"name":"Production Journal","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131816967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Dimensionamento e alocação dinâmica de veículos no transporte rodoviário de cargas completas entre terminais 终端间满载道路运输车辆的设计和动态分配
Production Journal Pub Date : 2015-11-24 DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.138013
Rejane Arinos Vasco, Reinaldo Morabito
{"title":"Dimensionamento e alocação dinâmica de veículos no transporte rodoviário de cargas completas entre terminais","authors":"Rejane Arinos Vasco, Reinaldo Morabito","doi":"10.1590/0103-6513.138013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-6513.138013","url":null,"abstract":"This paper addresses the dynamic vehicle allocation problem (DVAP) involving the road transportation of full loads between terminals, including the determination of the number of additional vehicles required to meet the demand for transportation in a multi-period finite planning horizon. The DVAP consists of defining the “movements” of a fleet of vehicles that transport goods between terminals with a wide geographical distribution and interact among themselves. These movements may be of fully laden vehicles, unladen vehicles used for repositioning, or vehicles held at a terminal to meet future demands. Emphasis is given to the characterization of the problem in real situations, the mathematical modeling of the problem by means of integer linear programming and the use of operational research techniques in solving the problem. The computational experiments conducted indicate that this approach can be useful for the solution of problems encountered in everyday life of a LTL transportation company in Brazil.","PeriodicalId":263089,"journal":{"name":"Production Journal","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131965716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The maturity of rail freight logistics service providers in Brazil 巴西铁路货运物流服务商的成熟度
Production Journal Pub Date : 2015-11-24 DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.178414
Adauto Bueno, L. H. Alencar
{"title":"The maturity of rail freight logistics service providers in Brazil","authors":"Adauto Bueno, L. H. Alencar","doi":"10.1590/0103-6513.178414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-6513.178414","url":null,"abstract":"This study analyzes the maturity of three rail freight Logistics Service Providers (LSPs) in Brazil in a population of seven operators. After an exploratory review of the existing literature and research documents, a structured questionnaire based on the Supply Chain Capability Maturity Model S(CM)2 was applied. The study measured an overall average level, given in S(CM)2, as Managed, meaning that the managerial development standard of the logistics agents was at an intermediate level. The results showed that maturity was related to the size of the LSP and the complexity of the organizational management. These findings can support the development of policies and strategies for the improvement and adoption of practices that best lead to gains in competitiveness for both LSPs and the Supply Chains (SCs) that require their services.","PeriodicalId":263089,"journal":{"name":"Production Journal","volume":"126 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132044088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Managerial response to stockouts: the effect of remedies on consumer behavior 管理对缺货的反应:补救措施对消费者行为的影响
Production Journal Pub Date : 2015-11-24 DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.156113
Ester Quirino Dias Sampaio, Mauro Sampaio
{"title":"Managerial response to stockouts: the effect of remedies on consumer behavior","authors":"Ester Quirino Dias Sampaio, Mauro Sampaio","doi":"10.1590/0103-6513.156113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-6513.156113","url":null,"abstract":"Stockouts remain a significant problem for retail firms. Estimates of stockout rates in the past fifty years consistently averaged approximately 8 percent. The consequences of stockouts transcend the retail store to include its supporting supply chain. In addition to the effect on the behavior of consumers, stockouts can impact the firm’s replenishment policy, the level and location of inventories and the cost of emergency shipments required to replenish out-of-stock items. Although there is a substantive literature in logistics that measures the frequency of and the consumer response to stockouts, investigation of the effect of remedies on consumer response is sparse. To address this problem, the effectiveness of five remedies as tools to manage retail stockouts was investigated: apology, raincheck, home delivery, trade-up and discount. A remedy is an incentive to induce consumers to not leave a store in response to a stockout. In addition the influence of consumer characteristics (i.e., brand loyalty) and shopping situations (i.e., urgency of purchase) on the effect of each remedy on consumer behavior was examined. The results suggest that the remedies are usually effective. The most effective remedy is home delivery. The least effective remedy is a simple apology, which may actually increase the percentage of consumers leaving the store. The results also indicate that the urgency of the purchase and store loyalty have the most impact on remedy effectiveness. These results suggest that there are significant opportunities to use remedies as tools to manage the effect of stockouts on retail stores and their supporting supply chains.","PeriodicalId":263089,"journal":{"name":"Production Journal","volume":"166 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126662575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
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