Applied Energy最新文献_第5页

Exploring new strategies for improved aluminium-ion batteries through dual-anion modeling 通过双阴离子模型探索改进铝离子电池的新策略

IF 11 1区工程技术

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126768

Hao Huang , Ze Yang , Ziqi Chen , Xuqi Wang , Zichuan Lv , Xiao Lu , Fangcheng Qiu , Mian Cai , Huiping Du , Yaqun Wang

{"title":"Exploring new strategies for improved aluminium-ion batteries through dual-anion modeling","authors":"Hao Huang , Ze Yang , Ziqi Chen , Xuqi Wang , Zichuan Lv , Xiao Lu , Fangcheng Qiu , Mian Cai , Huiping Du , Yaqun Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126768","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126768","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Aluminium-ion batteries (AIBs) offer numerous advantages, including high capacity, safety, and environmental sustainability, positioning them as a promising technological solution for mobile power and energy storage applications. Nevertheless, the effect of excess electrolytes reduces energy density, and the thermal instability of large-capacity batteries represents a major obstacle to large-scale applications. The energy storage mechanism of AIBs involves the reversible deposition/dissolution of metallic aluminium (Al) at the anode within a chloroaluminate ionic liquid electrolyte, coupled with the intercalation/deintercalation of AlCl<sub>4</sub><sup>−</sup> at the graphite cathode. These processes lead to dynamic changes in the concentrations of two anions (AlCl<sub>4</sub><sup>−</sup> and Al<sub>2</sub>Cl<sub>7</sub><sup>−</sup>), which in turn affect conductivity, diffusion coefficients, and battery polarization. This unique dual-anion property presents challenges for understanding the operating mechanisms and studying the internal states, both of which are critical factors for developing high-performance AIBs. Based on extensive geometric, kinetic and thermodynamic data, derive and calculate the behavior of the two anions. We have pioneered an AIBs electrochemical model with dual-anion characteristics which can accurately simulate the external and internal states such as battery potential with a simulation error of less than 0.38 %<strong>,</strong> temperature and optimize the mass ratio of the cathode material to electrolyte at 1.85:1. In addition, this constructed AIBs model explores a novel strategy to improve the battery management system, increase the operation efficiency and thermal management, and create a theoretical basis for further optimization of the battery design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"401 ","pages":"Article 126768"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145105258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

When and where it counts: enhancing demand response in electric vehicle charging 何时何地起作用：增强电动汽车充电的需求响应

IF 11 1区工程技术

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126739

Ahmed S.M. Sobhy , Desy Caesary , Hana Kim , Jiyong Eom

{"title":"When and where it counts: enhancing demand response in electric vehicle charging","authors":"Ahmed S.M. Sobhy , Desy Caesary , Hana Kim , Jiyong Eom","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126739","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126739","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Electric vehicles (EVs) offer a promising solution for mitigating the intermittency of renewable energy through flexible charging. Demand Response (DR) has been tested as one of the key demand-side solutions to capture the flexibility potential of EVs in Korea. This study evaluates the effects of DR interventions focusing on temporal factors and station-level characteristics that are often overlooked in existing literature. Using panel data from 558 EV charging stations (EVCSs) in Korea that participated in the DR program (November 9, 2022–April 30, 2023), we develop a CatBoost-based predictive model to estimate counterfactual consumption and isolate DR impacts at the station level. Results show that EVCSs with automatic controls achieve an average reduction of 11.8 % during event hours, while manual adjustments in charging patterns yield only a 0.4 % reduction, underscoring the limitations of voluntary user compliance. Moderately visited EVCSs exhibit the largest reductions in load, suggesting that station-level characteristics such as occupancy rate play a crucial role in DR effectiveness. Analysis reveals that stations with occupancy rates between 25 % and 63 % demonstrate the most substantial consumption reductions, indicating an optimal operational range for DR program effectiveness. DR interventions were the most effective during evening hours for EVCSs with automatic controls, whereas manual adjustments showed no significant variation by time. In addition, intervention effects during the evening hours differ across seasons. These findings provide insights for the development of DR programs that consider temporal variations and imply the need for automation of EVCSs to enhance grid flexibility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"401 ","pages":"Article 126739"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145105257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Effect of electrode structure on the energy efficiency and minimum load operation for pressurized alkaline water electrolysis: A numerical study 电极结构对加压碱水电解能量效率和最小负荷运行的影响：数值研究

IF 11 1区工程技术

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126748

Amit Kunte , Aziz Nechache , Dimitrios C. Kyritsis , Jan Kosco , S. Mani Sarathy

{"title":"Effect of electrode structure on the energy efficiency and minimum load operation for pressurized alkaline water electrolysis: A numerical study","authors":"Amit Kunte , Aziz Nechache , Dimitrios C. Kyritsis , Jan Kosco , S. Mani Sarathy","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126748","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126748","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Traditional anodic hydrogen mitigation in alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) cells focuses on enhancing separator material properties to resist hydrogen permeation while maintaining ion conductivity. In this study, we explore an alternative strategy utilizing a physically rigorous multi-field CFD model: customizing structural properties of Ni foam electrodes – porosity, thickness, and surface roughness - to manage hydrogen crossover and enhance overall performance. The model offers valuable insights into the interplay between electrode design and internal multiphysics phenomena. Simulation results reveal that electrode structure significantly affects hydrogen contamination. Specifically, a differential porosity configuration reduces hydrogen to oxygen (HTO) crossover by approximately 40 % compared to the baseline case, lowering the minimum safe operating current density by 80 %. While this operational improvement is energetically unfavourable, increasing energy consumption by about 0.6 % vis-à-vis the baseline case at high currents, the study identifies an optimum pore configuration that balances cell energy efficiency and operational flexibility. This approach introduces a new reliability and safety perspective to electrode design, enabling greater operational flexibility in fluctuating renewable energy environments. Ultimately, this work guides the development of innovative strategies taking a substantial step towards practical integration of alkaline electrolyzer in a carbon-free power generation paradigm.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"401 ","pages":"Article 126748"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145105408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Energy data security and pricing model in local energy markets using artificial intelligence 使用人工智能的本地能源市场的能源数据安全和定价模型

IF 11 1区工程技术

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126737

Fariya Tabassum , M.Imran Azim , Md.Rashidul Islam , M.A. Rahman , Liaqat Ali , Md.Mahfuzur Rahman , M.J. Hossain

{"title":"Energy data security and pricing model in local energy markets using artificial intelligence","authors":"Fariya Tabassum , M.Imran Azim , Md.Rashidul Islam , M.A. Rahman , Liaqat Ali , Md.Mahfuzur Rahman , M.J. Hossain","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126737","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126737","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing adoption of local energy markets has introduced new opportunities for decentralized energy trading but has rendered these systems vulnerable to significant cyberthreats. For local energy markets to remain trustworthy and reliable for efficient energy trading, data availability and integrity must be guaranteed. However, due to the use of contemporary information and communication technologies, these systems are becoming more susceptible to cyberthreats, such as distributed denial of service and false data injection attacks, which can interfere with regular business operations and jeopardize the fairness of trading. This article presents a comprehensive framework utilizing artificial intelligence to ensure a secure bilateral trading environment by identifying corrupted trading data, preventing customers from reacting to it, and mitigating threats’ impact on it. In addition, the proposed framework suggests a new real-time optimal trading price-giving model based on artificial intelligence to improve the financial benefits for both sellers and buyers. The framework’s effectiveness in maintaining trading data security and operational resilience is demonstrated through a thorough analysis. The simulation results testify that the designed trading price-giving approach benefits both sellers and buyers more than business-as-usual. Moreover, how the secured trading data sharing environment helps in maintaining financial benefits among customers during attack scenarios is also investigated. This work not only enhances the security and dependability of local energy markets but also emphasizes the financial benefits of implementing artificial intelligence-based schemes in energy trading systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"401 ","pages":"Article 126737"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145105410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Stackelberg-game-based energy optimization strategy for interactive energy use of flexible manufacturing industrial parks 基于stackelberg博弈的柔性制造工业园区互动能源利用优化策略

IF 11 1区工程技术

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126701

Yu-Qing Bao , Xiao-Rui Song , Peng-Cheng Zhou

{"title":"Stackelberg-game-based energy optimization strategy for interactive energy use of flexible manufacturing industrial parks","authors":"Yu-Qing Bao , Xiao-Rui Song , Peng-Cheng Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126701","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126701","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the emergence of distributed energy resources coexisting with the power grid, optimizing energy utilization across the entire industrial park while balancing the interests of park operators and manufacturing plants has become increasingly critical. Existing optimization scheduling strategies often fail to capture the complexity of flexible production processes involving multiple production lines, multiple operations, and multiple products, or lack the capability to implement Stackelberg-game energy optimization at the “park-level” with multiple manufacturing plants. To address these limitations, this paper proposes an energy optimization strategy for flexible manufacturing industrial parks based on the Stackelberg-game framework. The energy optimization models for the industrial park (“leader” problem) and the flexible manufacturing plants (FMPs, “follower” problem) are developed, and the Stackelberg-game optimization problem is reformulated into a three-layer nested optimization framework, consisting of outer, middle, and inner layers. The proposed framework is solved using a Bayesian Optimization method with Nested Mixed Inter Linear Programming (BO-NMILP). The case study results indicate that the proposed energy optimization strategy for flexible manufacturing industrial parks, based on the Stackelberg-game framework, can enhance the self-consumption of photovoltaic power within the park, maximize the industrial park's revenue, and effectively handle the complex multi-line, multi-operation, and multi-product production processes of FMPs to meet production demands. Additionally, it significantly reduces the electricity costs of FMPs while improving overall energy efficiency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"401 ","pages":"Article 126701"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145105311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A techno-economic life cycle assessment of H2 fuelled and electrified urban buses 氢燃料和电气化城市客车的技术经济生命周期评价

IF 11 1区工程技术

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126738

B. Peiretti Paradisi, L. Pulvirenti, A. Vinogradov, L. Rolando, A. Piano, F. Millo, M. Prussi

{"title":"A techno-economic life cycle assessment of H2 fuelled and electrified urban buses","authors":"B. Peiretti Paradisi, L. Pulvirenti, A. Vinogradov, L. Rolando, A. Piano, F. Millo, M. Prussi","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126738","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126738","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Nowadays, several technologies based on powertrain electrification and the exploitation of hydrogen represent valuable options for decarbonizing the on-road public transport sector. The considered alternatives should exhibit an effective benchmark between CO<sub>2</sub> reduction potential and production/operational costs. Conducting a comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) analysis, coupled with a thorough Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is therefore crucial in shaping the future for cleaner urban mobility. From this perspective, this study compares different powertrain configurations for a 12 m urban bus: a conventional diesel Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV), a series hybrid diesel, two hydrogen-based series hybrid vehicles: a Hydrogen Hybrid Electric Vehicle featuring an H2-ICE (H2-HEV) or a Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV), and a Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV). Moreover, a sensitivity analysis has been conducted on the carbon footprint for power generation, considering also the marginal electricity mix. In addition, prospective LCA and TCO elements are introduced by addressing future technological projections for the 2030 horizon. The research reveals that, as of today, the BEV and hydrogen-fueled vehicles have comparable environmental impacts when the marginal electricity mix is considered. The techno-economic analysis indicates that, under current conditions, FCEVs and H2-HEVs are not cost-effective for CO₂ reduction unless powered by renewable energy sources. However, considering future technological advancements and market evolution, FCEVs offer the most promising balance between economic and environmental benefits, particularly if hydrogen prices reach €4 per kilogram. If hydrogen-powered vehicles remain a niche market, BEVs will be the most viable option for decarbonizing the transport sector in most European countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"401 ","pages":"Article 126738"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145105407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Robust state-of-charge estimation for LiFePO₄ Lithium-ion batteries with pronounced voltage plateau regions 具有明显电压平台区的LiFePO₄锂离子电池的鲁棒充电状态估计

IF 11 1区工程技术

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126755

Kaixuan Zhang , Cheng Chen , Lixin Er , Weixiang Shen , Rui Xiong

{"title":"Robust state-of-charge estimation for LiFePO₄ Lithium-ion batteries with pronounced voltage plateau regions","authors":"Kaixuan Zhang , Cheng Chen , Lixin Er , Weixiang Shen , Rui Xiong","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126755","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126755","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate state of charge (SOC) estimation is critical for the safe and efficient operation of electric vehicles and energy storage systems. To address the challenges of reduced observability and noise sensitivity in voltage plateau regions of lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO<sub>4</sub> or LFP) batteries, this study proposes an adaptive robust extended Kalman filter (AREKF) with a dual-error collaborative mechanism for SOC estimation. First, the convergence condition, based on the identified open-circuit voltage (OCV) and estimated SOC, controls the activation and deactivation of SOC correction. Furthermore, by transforming the unmeasurable SOC condition into a measurable voltage condition based on state prediction and feedback errors, the correction window is expanded in the presence of SOC errors. Next, the error covariance of AREKF is adaptively updated by comparing the deviation between the calculated and theoretical voltage residual covariance, accelerating the convergence speed. Meanwhile, sliding window averaging and upper bounds on the error covariance are employed to enhance robustness. Finally, experimental validation demonstrates that the proposed method effectively suppresses measurement noise under dynamic conditions, exhibiting enhanced robustness in SOC estimation, particularly in the voltage plateau regions. Under multi-temperature, multi-noise, and disturbance testing, the steady-state estimation error remains within ±2 %, confirming the reliability of the proposed method for SOC estimation of LFP batteries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"401 ","pages":"Article 126755"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145105406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Numerical and experimental investigation of TPMS-structured cold plates for electronic device cooling tpms结构电子器件冷却冷板的数值与实验研究

IF 11 1区工程技术

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126745

Junyu Chen, Xianhao Liu, Yuting Li, Xiangyou Feng, Junhong Chen, Haoning Zhu, Wen-Quan Tao

{"title":"Numerical and experimental investigation of TPMS-structured cold plates for electronic device cooling","authors":"Junyu Chen, Xianhao Liu, Yuting Li, Xiangyou Feng, Junhong Chen, Haoning Zhu, Wen-Quan Tao","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126745","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126745","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the increasing power of electronic chips, cold plates have emerged as a promising solution for cooling high thermal load electronic devices. Additive manufacturing facilitates the production of complex structures, expanding the possibilities for developing advanced designs. Triply Periodic Minimal Surface (TPMS) structures exhibit remarkable thermophysical properties, making them prominent candidates for heat transfer applications. This study numerically investigates the heat transfer capacity and flow characteristics of cold plates with serpentine channels and three TPMS structures, Diamond, Gyroid, and I-WP structures. From numerical results, the inherent mechanisms of TPMS structure strengthening heat transfer are analyzed from flow pattern and combined conduction and convection heat transfer. The results indicate that the Diamond structure exhibits the best overall thermohydraulic performance. The influence of two geometric parameters, porosity and unit cell size, on the thermohydraulic performance of TPMS structure, is examined. A TPMS structure with gradient changes in unit cell size in the direction from plate bottom to top is developed. At a pumping power below 2 W, its ultimate heat flux can exceed 256.9 W/cm<sup>2</sup>, improving the overall performance by 3.58 % to 6.24 % compared with the uniform one. Experimental results verify the reliability of numerical simulations, the maximum relative deviations in temperature, pressure drop, and heat transfer coefficient between numerical and test data were only 7.5 %, 13.9 % and, 5.44 %, respectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"401 ","pages":"Article 126745"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145105261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Coupling a power system model with a hydrological model improves the representation of sub-monthly hydropower flexibility 电力系统模型与水文模型的耦合改善了分月水电灵活性的表征

IF 11 1区工程技术

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126694

Laure Baratgin , Philippe Quirion , Jan Polcher , Patrice Dumas

{"title":"Coupling a power system model with a hydrological model improves the representation of sub-monthly hydropower flexibility","authors":"Laure Baratgin , Philippe Quirion , Jan Polcher , Patrice Dumas","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126694","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126694","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Integrating large amounts of variable renewable power generation increases the need for flexible resources in the power system. Hydropower can be a precious asset for managing the variability in the grid. However, it will be subject to evolving constraints related to changes in the water resources and the operation of multi-purpose reservoirs.</div><div>This study explores the value of coupling a power system model with a hydrological model that represents the operation of hydroelectric dams, to simulate an hourly hydropower schedule consistent with a realistic management of the hydropower reservoirs at the national grid level. We model the French power system with the optimization model EOLES-Dispatch and assess the impact of the coupling with the ORCHIDEE model, which represents hydropower management.</div><div>We find that this new method allows us to simulate a hydropower schedule closer to the observed production, while power system models tend to overestimate the flexibility of hydropower. Considering a prospective 2050 power mix, we also find that accounting for these additional constraints leads to more frequent unsatisfied demand, which is underestimated by the usual representation of hydropower. Such a coupling of hydrological and power system modeling paves the way for a more robust representation of power dispatch in future power mixes, taking into account the joint evolution of water resources and power systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"401 ","pages":"Article 126694"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145105409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate-driven compounding effects and historical trends in renewable electricity droughts in Europe 气候驱动的复合效应和欧洲可再生电力干旱的历史趋势

IF 11 1区工程技术

Applied Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126623

Yu Meng , Johannes Schmidt , Jakob Zscheischler , Emanuele Bevacqua

{"title":"Climate-driven compounding effects and historical trends in renewable electricity droughts in Europe","authors":"Yu Meng , Johannes Schmidt , Jakob Zscheischler , Emanuele Bevacqua","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126623","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126623","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the interconnected European power system, renewable electricity droughts (REDs)—periods of unmet demand by renewables—may be triggered by weather-driven compounding effects of high demand and low generation from wind, solar, and/or run-of-river hydropower, particularly when simultaneous REDs compound across multiple regions. Yet, our understanding of such compounding effects and historical trends in REDs, remains limited. We study REDs using weekly electricity generation and demand from 1941 to 2023 derived via the PyPSA-Eur framework, focusing on the season most affected by REDs and, to isolate climate-driven impacts, assuming fixed present-day installed generation capacities. Across nine European macro-regions, each comprising highly interconnected small-scale areas, REDs are mainly driven by wind generation and demand, with prominent compounding effects in central Europe, Italy, and across the UK and Ireland. Wind-demand correlations enhance REDs in central and northern Europe but weaken them in the south. Furthermore, macro-regional REDs primarily occur due to simultaneous REDs in small-scale areas. In an increasingly interconnected continental power system, we find that correlations between residual loads of macro-regions increase the probability of simultaneous macro-regional REDs, ultimately intensifying Europe-wide REDs by 40 % on average compared to a scenario without correlations. Finally, we assess weather-driven trends in REDs, finding that increasing temperatures lowered winter heating demand and thus reduced RED frequency, while changes in correlations between demand and generation sources, along with between residual loads across macro-regions, amplified Europe-wide RED risk. This research underscores the importance of considering compound effects between demand and generation across regions, along with long-term climate change, to optimize power systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"401 ","pages":"Article 126623"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145105260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0