Zoonoses and Public Health最新文献

{"title":"Dogs on the move: Estimating the risk of rabies in imported dogs in the United States, 2015–2022","authors":"Emily G. Pieracci,&nbsp;Ryan Wallace,&nbsp;Brian Maskery,&nbsp;Colleen Brouillette,&nbsp;Clive Brown,&nbsp;Heesoo Joo","doi":"10.1111/zph.13122","DOIUrl":"10.1111/zph.13122","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Background</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Dog-mediated rabies virus variant (DMRVV), a zoonotic pathogen that causes a deadly disease in animals and humans, is present in more than 100 countries worldwide but has been eliminated from the United States since 2007. In the United States, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recorded four instances of rabies in dogs imported from DMRVV-enzootic countries since 2015. However, it remains uncertain whether the incidence of DMRVV among imported dogs from these countries significantly surpasses that of domestically acquired variants among domestic U.S. dogs.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This evaluation aimed to estimate the number of dogs imported from DMRVV-enzootic countries and compare the risk of rabies between imported dogs and the U.S. domestic dog population.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Materials and Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Data from the CDC's dog import permit system (implemented during 2021 under a temporary suspension of dog importation from DMRVV-enzootic countries) and U.S. Customs and Border Protection's Automated Commercial Environment system, each of which records a segment of dogs entering the U.S. from DMRVV-enzootic countries, was analysed. Additionally, we estimated the incidence rate of rabies in dogs imported from DMRVV-enzootic countries and compared it to the incidence rate within the general U.S. dog population, due to domestically acquired rabies variants, over the eight-year period (2015–2022).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>An estimated 72,589 (range, 62,660–86,258) dogs were imported into the United States annually between 2015 and 2022 from DMRVV-enzootic countries. The estimated incidence rate of rabies was 16 times higher (range, 13.2–19.4) in dogs imported from DMRVV-enzootic countries than that estimated for domestically acquired rabies in the general U.S. dog population.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Preventing human exposure to dogs with DMRVV is a public health priority. The higher risk of rabies in dogs imported from DMRVV-enzootic countries supports the need for importation requirements aimed at preventing the reintroduction of DMRVV into the United States.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":24025,"journal":{"name":"Zoonoses and Public Health","volume":"71 6","pages":"620-628"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140050417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental and sociodemographic factors associated with zoonotic pathogen occurrence in Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) from Windsor, Ontario","authors":"Sarah J. Robinson,&nbsp;David L. Pearl,&nbsp;Chelsea G. Himsworth,&nbsp;J. Scott Weese,&nbsp;L. Robbin Lindsay,&nbsp;Antonia Dibernardo,&nbsp;Chris Huynh,&nbsp;Janet E. Hill,&nbsp;Champika Fernando,&nbsp;Claire M. Jardine","doi":"10.1111/zph.13120","DOIUrl":"10.1111/zph.13120","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aims</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Rat-associated zoonotic pathogen transmission at the human–wildlife interface is a public health concern in urban environments where Norway rats (<i>Rattus norvegicus</i>) thrive on abundant anthropogenic resources and live in close contact with humans and other animal species. To identify potential factors influencing zoonotic pathogen occurrence in rats, we investigated associations between environmental and sociodemographic factors and <i>Leptospira interrogans</i> and <i>Bartonella</i> spp. infections in rats from Windsor, Ontario, Canada, while controlling for the potential confounding effects of animal characteristics (i.e., sexual maturity and body condition).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods and Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Between November 2018 and June 2021, 252 rats were submitted by collaborating pest control professionals. Kidney and spleen samples were collected for <i>L. interrogans</i> and <i>Bartonella</i> spp. PCR and sequencing, respectively. Of the rats tested by PCR, 12.7% (32/252) were positive for <i>L. interrogans</i> and 16.3% (37/227) were positive for <i>Bartonella</i> species. Associations between infection status and environmental and sociodemographic variables of interest were assessed via mixed multivariable logistic regression models with a random intercept for social group and fixed effects to control for sexual maturity and body condition in each model. The odds of <i>L. interrogans</i> infection were significantly higher in rats from areas with high building density (odds ratio [OR]: 3.76; 95% CI: 1.31–10.79; <i>p</i> = 0.014), high human population density (OR: 3.31; 95% CI: 1.20–9.11; <i>p</i> = 0.021), high proportion of buildings built in 1960 or before (OR: 11.21; 95% CI: 2.06–60.89; <i>p</i> = 0.005), and a moderate number of reports of uncollected garbage compared to a low number of reports (OR: 4.88; 95% CI: 1.01–23.63; <i>p</i> = 0.049). A negative association was observed between median household income and <i>Bartonella</i> spp. infection in rats (OR: 0.26; 95% CI: 0.08–0.89; <i>p</i> = 0.031).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Due to the complexity of the ecology of rat-associated zoonoses, consideration of environmental and sociodemographic factors is of critical importance to better understand the nuances of host–pathogen systems and inform how urban rat surveillance and intervention efforts should be distributed within cities.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":24025,"journal":{"name":"Zoonoses and Public Health","volume":"71 4","pages":"416-428"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/zph.13120","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139991291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Discrepancy between IDSA and ESGBOR in Lyme disease: Individual participant meta-analysis in Türkiye","authors":"Abdullah Burak Yıldız,&nbsp;Ecesu Çetin,&nbsp;Fatihan Pınarlık,&nbsp;Şiran Keske,&nbsp;Füsun Can,&nbsp;Önder Ergönül","doi":"10.1111/zph.13119","DOIUrl":"10.1111/zph.13119","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Background</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The evidence on the prevalence of Lyme borreliosis (LB) is limited, but there is a suspicion of overdiagnosis of LB in recent years. We reviewed the LB diagnosis and treatment-related data in Türkiye, based on the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) 2020 and European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases Study Group for Lyme Borreliosis (ESGBOR) 2018 guidelines. By detecting the disagreements between these two, we outlined the areas to be improved for future guidelines.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We performed a literature search according to the PRISMA guidelines in PubMed, Ovid-Medline, Web of Science, Turkish Medline, Scopus, CINAHL, ULAKBIM TR Index, Google Scholar and Cochrane Library databases. We included the published cases in a database and evaluated according to IDSA and ESGBOR guidelines. We outlined the reasons for misdiagnoses and inappropriate uses of antibiotics.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We included 42 relevant studies with 84 LB cases reported from Türkiye between 1990 and December 2022. Among 84 cases, the most common clinical findings were nervous system findings (<i>n</i> = 37, 44.0%), erythema migrans (<i>n</i> = 29, 34.5%) and ophthalmologic findings (<i>n</i> = 15, 17.9%). The IDSA 2020 and ESGBOR 2018 guidelines agreed on the diagnosis of 71 (84.5%) cases; there was an agreement that 31 cases (36.9%) were misdiagnosed and 40 cases (47.6%) were correctly diagnosed, and there was disagreement for 13 cases (15.5%). Serum immunoglobulin M (IgM), IgG measurements by ELISA and western blot were widely performed, and they were effective in definitive diagnosis merely when used according to guidelines. Inappropriate use of antibiotics was detected in 42 (50.0%) of cases which were classified in the following categories: incorrect LB diagnosis, inappropriate choice of antibiotic, inappropriate route of drug administration and prolonged antibiotic treatment.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusion</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Overdiagnosis and non-adherence to guidelines is a common problem. The discordance between seroprevalence and clinical studies necessitates a consensus over the best clinical approach.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":24025,"journal":{"name":"Zoonoses and Public Health","volume":"71 4","pages":"337-348"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/zph.13119","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139984053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Responding to outbreaks of illness linked to unpasteurized milk: A needs assessment of state health and agriculture departments","authors":"Michael Ablan,&nbsp;Michelle Canning,&nbsp;Lia Koski,&nbsp;Lisa Landsman,&nbsp;G. Sean Stapleton,&nbsp;Megin Nichols,&nbsp;Misha Robyn","doi":"10.1111/zph.13117","DOIUrl":"10.1111/zph.13117","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aims</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Consumption of unpasteurized milk can result in severe illness or death. In the United States, the number of people who regularly consume unpasteurized milk is relatively low, but outbreaks resulting from unpasteurized milk outnumber outbreaks linked to pasteurized milk. The sale of unpasteurized milk for human consumption through interstate commerce is prohibited at the federal level, but laws among states vary considerably with respect to the sale of unpasteurized milk. Each state has a different perspective on responding to and preventing outbreaks of illness linked to consuming unpasteurized milk.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods and Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We conducted a needs assessment of state health and agriculture departments to gather information on state-level strategies to prevent illnesses linked to consuming unpasteurized milk, characterize challenges states face, and identify areas where partners can support state efforts to prevent illnesses. We deployed a survey from 6 January 2021 to 1 March 2021, using a snowball sampling strategy and had 158 respondents. Of 115 respondents, 46 (40%) believed that state laws were ineffective in preventing illnesses, and 92 (80%) agreed that consumers continue to find ways to get unpasteurized milk despite laws restricting sale. Respondents from 19 states were aware of future legislative or regulatory efforts surrounding unpasteurized milk in their state, with 14 (74%) indicating these efforts would expand consumer access. The most common outbreak prevention strategies respondents mentioned included sharing knowledge and experiences with other public health and agriculture officials, providing information to inform legislative efforts, and communicating to the public about outbreaks. Most respondents (41/50, 91%) were interested in pursuing further efforts to prevent unpasteurized milk-associated illnesses in their state.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The results from this needs assessment can be used to inform future strategies for preventing illness outbreaks associated with unpasteurized milk consumption.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":24025,"journal":{"name":"Zoonoses and Public Health","volume":"71 5","pages":"480-488"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139940955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial and temporal patterns of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and the impact of environmental drivers in a border area of the Russian Far East","authors":"Natalia Shartova,&nbsp;Fedor Korennoy,&nbsp;Svetlana Zelikhina,&nbsp;Varvara Mironova,&nbsp;Li Wang,&nbsp;Svetlana Malkhazova","doi":"10.1111/zph.13118","DOIUrl":"10.1111/zph.13118","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim<b>s</b></h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a significant zoonotic disease transmitted by rodents. The distribution of HFRS in the European part of Russia has been studied quite well; however, much less is known about the endemic area in the Russian Far East. The mutual influence of the epidemic situation in the border regions and the possibility of cross-border transmission of infection remain poorly understood. This study aims to identify the spatiotemporal hot spots of the incidence and the impact of environmental drivers on the HFRS distribution in the Russian Far East.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods and Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>A two-scale study design was performed. Kulldorf's spatial scan statistic was used to conduct spatiotemporal analysis at a regional scale from 2000 to 2020. In addition, an ecological niche model based on maximum entropy was applied to analyse the contribution of various factors and identify spatial favourability at the local scale. One spatiotemporal cluster that existed from 2002 to 2011 and located in the border area and one pure temporal cluster from 2004 to 2007 were revealed. The best suitability for orthohantavirus persistence was found along rivers, including those at the Chinese–Russian border, and was mainly explained by land cover, NDVI (as an indicator of vegetation density and greenness) and elevation.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Despite the stable incidence in recent years in, targeted prevention strategies are still needed due to the high potential for HRFS distribution in the southeast of the Russian Far East.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":24025,"journal":{"name":"Zoonoses and Public Health","volume":"71 5","pages":"489-502"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139940956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Are all avian influenza outbreaks in poultry the same? The predicted impact of poultry species and virus subtype","authors":"Carsten Kirkeby,&nbsp;Anette Boklund,&nbsp;Lars Erik Larsen,&nbsp;Michael P. Ward","doi":"10.1111/zph.13116","DOIUrl":"10.1111/zph.13116","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aims</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Outbreaks of avian influenza in poultry farms are currently increasing in frequency, with devastating consequences for animal welfare, farmers and supply chains. Some studies have documented the direct spread of the avian influenza virus between farms. Prevention of spread between farms relies on biosecurity surveillance and control measures. However, the evolution of an outbreak on a farm might vary depending on the virus strain and poultry species involved; this would have important implications for surveillance systems, epidemiological investigations and control measures.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods and Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In this study, we utilized existing parameter estimates from the literature to evaluate the predicted course of an epidemic in a standard poultry flock with 10,000 birds. We used a stochastic SEIR simulation model to simulate outbreaks in different species and with different virus subtypes. The simulations predicted large differences in the duration and severity of outbreaks, depending on the virus subtypes. For both turkeys and chickens, outbreaks with HPAI were of shorter duration than outbreaks with LPAI. In outbreaks involving the infection of chickens with different virus subtypes, the shortest epidemic involved H7N7 and HPAIV H5N1 (median duration of 9 and 17 days, respectively) and the longest involved H5N2 (median duration of 68 days). The most severe outbreaks (number of chickens infected) were predicted for H5N1, H7N1 and H7N3 virus subtypes, and the least severe for H5N2 and H7N7, in which outbreaks for the latter subtype were predicted to develop most slowly.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>These simulation results suggest that surveillance of certain subtypes of avian influenza virus, in chicken flocks in particular, needs to be sensitive and timely if infection is to be detected with sufficient time to implement control measures. The variability in the predictions highlights that avian influenza outbreaks are different in severity, speed and duration, so surveillance and disease response need to be nuanced and fit the specific context of poultry species and virus subtypes.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":24025,"journal":{"name":"Zoonoses and Public Health","volume":"71 3","pages":"314-323"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/zph.13116","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139742180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The perfect storm: Cutaneous leishmaniasis in troops deployed in the Atlantic forest of Argentina","authors":"Daniela Lamattina,&nbsp;Esteban Manuel Couto,&nbsp;Sofía Lorian Moya,&nbsp;Magalí Gabriela Giuliani,&nbsp;Micaela Cortés,&nbsp;María Victoria Vadell,&nbsp;Oscar Daniel Salomón","doi":"10.1111/zph.13115","DOIUrl":"10.1111/zph.13115","url":null,"abstract":"<p>American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) is the most prevalent form of leishmaniasis, associated with an ulcerative and stigmatizing mucocutaneous pathology. This study assessed the incidence of <i>Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis</i> in members of the Argentine Army who were exposed to sandfly bites in Iguazú National Park (INP), northeastern Argentina, during an outbreak of ACL in 2019, and the presence of <i>Leishmania</i> in rodents, opossums and phlebotomine sandflies collected in the area of exposure. Samples from military personnel, wild animals and phlebotomine sandflies were analysed. A total of 20 (40%) patients among the Army personnel and two <i>Akodon montensis</i> rodents (11%) were positive for the presence of <i>Leishmania</i> sp. genes by PCR, while <i>Nyssomyia whitmani</i> and <i>Migonemyia migonei</i>, competent vectors of <i>Leishmania</i>, were also found at the same site. Sequences of <i>hsp70</i> DNA fragments obtained from human samples confirmed the identity of <i>L. (V.) braziliensis</i>. The risk to which military personnel carrying out activities in the forest are exposed is highlighted, and this risk extends to any worker and visitor who circulates without protection in the INP, coming into contact with transmission “hot spots” due to the concentration of vectors, reservoirs and/or parasites.</p>","PeriodicalId":24025,"journal":{"name":"Zoonoses and Public Health","volume":"71 3","pages":"267-273"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139713180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecasting seasonal influenza activity in Canada—Comparing seasonal Auto-Regressive integrated moving average and artificial neural network approaches for public health preparedness","authors":"Armin Orang,&nbsp;Olaf Berke,&nbsp;Zvonimir Poljak,&nbsp;Amy L. Greer,&nbsp;Erin E. Rees,&nbsp;Victoria Ng","doi":"10.1111/zph.13114","DOIUrl":"10.1111/zph.13114","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Introduction</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Public health preparedness is based on timely and accurate information. Time series forecasting using disease surveillance data is an important aspect of preparedness. This study compared two approaches of time series forecasting: seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modelling and the artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm. The goal was to model weekly seasonal influenza activity in Canada using SARIMA and compares its predictive accuracy, based on root mean square prediction error (RMSE) and mean absolute prediction error (MAE), to that of an ANN.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>An initial SARIMA model was fit using automated model selection by minimizing the Akaike information criterion (AIC). Further inspection of the autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function led to ‘manual’ model improvements. ANNs were trained iteratively, using an automated process to minimize the RMSE and MAE.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>A total of 378, 462 cases of influenza was reported in Canada from the 2010–2011 influenza season to the end of the 2019–2020 influenza season, with an average yearly incidence risk of 20.02 per 100,000 population. Automated SARIMA modelling was the better method in terms of forecasting accuracy (per RMSE and MAE). However, the ANN correctly predicted the peak week of disease incidence while the other models did not.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusion</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Both the ANN and SARIMA models have shown to be capable tools in forecasting seasonal influenza activity in Canada. It was shown that applying both in tandem is beneficial, SARIMA better forecasted overall incidence while ANN correctly predicted the peak week.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":24025,"journal":{"name":"Zoonoses and Public Health","volume":"71 3","pages":"304-313"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/zph.13114","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139708065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What would be the impact on the rabies risk of reducing the waiting period before dogs are imported? A modelling study based on the European Union legislation","authors":"Guillaume Crozet,&nbsp;Florence Cliquet,&nbsp;Emmanuelle Robardet","doi":"10.1111/zph.13113","DOIUrl":"10.1111/zph.13113","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aims</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p><i>Lyssavirus rabies</i> (RABV) is responsible for a major zoonotic infection that is almost always lethal once clinical signs appear. Rabies can be (re)introduced into rabies-free areas through transboundary dog movements, thus compromising animal and human health. A number of measures have been implemented to prevent this happening, one of which is the waiting period (WP) after anti-rabies vaccination and serological testing. This WP ensures that antibodies assessed through the serological test are due to the vaccine, not to infection. Indeed, if antibodies are due to RABV infection, the dog should display clinical signs within this WP and would not therefore be imported.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods and Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Within a framework of quantitative risk assessment, we used modelling approaches to evaluate the impact of this WP and its duration on the risk of introducing rabies via the importation of dogs into the European Union. Two types of models were used, a classical stochastic scenario tree model and an individual-based model, both parameterised using scientific literature or data specifically applicable to the EU. Results showed that, assuming perfect compliance, the current 3-month waiting period was associated with a median annual number of 0.04 infected dogs imported into the EU. When the WP was reduced, the risk increased. For example, for a 1-month WP, the median annual number of infected dogs imported was 0.17 or 0.15 depending on the model, which corresponds to a four-fold increase.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusion</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This in silico study, particularly suitable for evaluating rare events such as rabies infections in rabies-free areas, provided results that can directly inform policymakers in order to adapt regulations linked to rabies and animal movements.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":24025,"journal":{"name":"Zoonoses and Public Health","volume":"71 4","pages":"402-415"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/zph.13113","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139693075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial epidemiology of human anthrax in Son La province, Vietnam, 2003–2022","authors":"Tan Luong,&nbsp;Tien Dung Nguyen,&nbsp;Van Truong Lu,&nbsp;Morgan C. Metrailer,&nbsp;Van Khang Pham,&nbsp;Thi Thu Ha Hoang,&nbsp;Thi Mai Hung Tran,&nbsp;Thanh Hai Pham,&nbsp;Thanh Long Pham,&nbsp;Quang Thai Pham,&nbsp;Jason K. Blackburn","doi":"10.1111/zph.13112","DOIUrl":"10.1111/zph.13112","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aims</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Anthrax is reported with frequency but poorly understood in Southeast Asian countries including Vietnam. In Vietnam, anthrax surveillance is national. However, case detection, prevention, and control are implemented locally at the provincial level. Here, we describe the epidemiological characteristics, identify spatial clusters of human anthrax, and compare the variation in livestock anthrax vaccine coverage to disease incidence in humans and livestock using historical data in Son La province, Vietnam (2003–2020).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods and Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Most human cases occurred between April and September. Most of the patients were male, aged 15–54 years old. The human cases were mainly reported by public district hospitals. There was a delay between disease onset and hospitalization of ~5 days. We identified spatial clusters of high–high incidence communes in the northern communes of the province using the local Moran's <i>I</i> statistic. The vaccine coverage sharply decreased across the study period. The province reported sporadic human anthrax outbreaks, while animal cases were only reported in 2005 and 2022.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>These results suggest underreporting for human and livestock anthrax in the province. Intersectoral information sharing is needed to aid livestock vaccination planning, which currently relies on reported livestock cases. The spatial clusters identify areas for targeted surveillance and livestock vaccination, while the seasonal case data suggest prioritizing vaccination campaigns for February or early March ahead of the April peak. A regional approach for studying the role of livestock trading between Son La and neighbouring provinces in anthrax occurrence is recommended.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":24025,"journal":{"name":"Zoonoses and Public Health","volume":"71 4","pages":"392-401"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/zph.13112","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139571013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}