Michael Liem, Giulia Conti, Stephan Matthai, Patrick Jenny
{"title":"Prior Aperture Realizations From Far-Field Stress Approximation for Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation in Naturally Fractured Reservoirs","authors":"Michael Liem, Giulia Conti, Stephan Matthai, Patrick Jenny","doi":"10.1029/2023wr036417","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036417","url":null,"abstract":"Fractures are ubiquitous in reservoirs used for geothermal heat extraction, CO<sub>2</sub> storage, and other subsurface applications. Their significant impact on flow and transport requires accurate characterization for performance estimation and risk assessment. However, fracture geometry and aperture are usually associated with large uncertainties. Data assimilation (or history matching) is a well-established tool for reducing the uncertainty of model parameters and states to improve simulation results. In recent years, ensemble-based methods like the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ESMDA) have gained popularity. A key aspect of those methods is a well-constructed prior ensemble that accurately reflects available knowledge. Here, we consider a geological scenario where fracture geometry is known, and opening is created by shearing. Generating prior realizations of aperture with geomechanical simulators might become computationally prohibitive, while purely stochastic approaches neglect important geological information. We therefore introduce the far-field stress approximation (FFSA), a proxy model in which this stress is projected onto the fracture planes and shear displacement is approximated with linear elastic theory. We compensate for modeling errors by introducing additional uncertainty in the underlying model parameters. The FFSA efficiently generates reasonable prior realizations at low computational costs. The resulting posterior ensemble obtained from our ESMDA framework matches the flow and transport behavior of the synthetic reference at measurement locations and improves the estimation of fracture aperture. These results markedly outperform those obtained from prior ensembles based on two naïve stochastic approaches, thus underlining the importance of accurate prior modeling.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145127361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Md. Redwan Ahmad Khan, Bhupinderjeet Singh, Michael P. Brady, Matthew A. Yourek, Jonathan Yoder, Joseph Cook, Georgine G. Yorgey, Kirti Rajagopalan
{"title":"Concurrent Irrigation Pauses Can Create Streamflow Pulses for Fish During Critical Low-Flow Periods","authors":"Md. Redwan Ahmad Khan, Bhupinderjeet Singh, Michael P. Brady, Matthew A. Yourek, Jonathan Yoder, Joseph Cook, Georgine G. Yorgey, Kirti Rajagopalan","doi":"10.1029/2024wr039127","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr039127","url":null,"abstract":"Streamflow augmentation can support endangered fish during low-flow periods. Irrigated agriculture being the largest out-of-stream consumptive use, there is potential to augment streamflow by temporarily leasing from agriculture. This potential has not been fully realized, perhaps due to a focus on leasing at the extensive margin where land is either irrigated or not. Leasing at the intensive-margin—applying less water on the full land extent—has received limited attention but could be promising, especially related to short-term pulse flows for fish. We address this with two questions: <i>Can a concurrent short-term pause of irrigation withdrawals meaningfully increase streamflow for fish during critical periods? What is the associated foregone crop production and revenue loss?</i> We used the CropSyst model to simulate irrigation demands, yield impacts from a 15-day pause, and resulting revenue reductions for three focal watersheds in eastern Washington State of the United States, and generated water supply curves that provide the marginal cost of augmentation. We evaluated the strategy's ability to bring flows to levels beneficial for fish for at least two consecutive days. Results indicate that a short-term irrigation pause can provide meaningful levels of pulse-flows if conducive conditions related to upstream crop mix, acreage, and augmentation needs are met. The mean cost from lost revenue across years from reduced yields ranged from $1 to $125/acre in scenarios where the targeted streamflow was achieved. This water leasing strategy has potential in some locations to represent a win-win situation for agricultural and environmental stakeholders and warrants further exploration.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145127360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does Time–Space Symmetry Exist in Relationship Between Regional Vegetation Patterns and Budyko Shape Parameter Governing Annual Water Balance?","authors":"Qingqing Fang, Yuding Xia, Shanghong Zhang, Guoqiang Wang, Baolin Xue, Ziqi Yue, Honglin Zhu, Bin Li, Murugesu Sivapalan","doi":"10.1029/2025wr040069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr040069","url":null,"abstract":"The parsimony of the Budyko water balance model has prompted its extensive use for analyzing climate–vegetation–water interactions. Existence of time–space symmetry in the Budyko model, governing the hydrological predictions across both temporal (short-term annual) and spatial (long-term mean annual) domains, has enabled its application in ungauged basins through use of space-for-time substitution (SFTS). However, time–space symmetry in the relationship between the Budyko shape parameter and in vegetation changes has not been well studied. The Budyko curve, which varies spatially across regions due to differences of vegetation, also varies temporally as vegetation evolves over time. Here, we investigate this problem in a representative basin with several sub-catchments, which includes sensitivity to vegetation dynamics and climate change using two shape parameters (<i>n</i><sub>1</sub> and <i>n</i><sub>2</sub>) and the vegetation cover, <i>M</i>. Interestingly, time–space symmetry was found between <i>M</i>/Φ and <i>n</i><sub>1</sub>/Φ or exp(<i>−n</i><sub>2</sub>)/Φ, compared to just <i>M</i> versus <i>n</i> separately (which produces asymmetry), implying a coupled ecohydrological adjustment mechanism between vegetation functioning and hydrological structure co-regulated in response to climatic constraints counteracting the effects of spatio-temporal heterogeneity on water balance partitioning. Our study proposes a novel and streamlined ecohydrological model within the time–space equivalence hypothesis and recognizes that the symmetry/asymmetry is crucial for accurate SFTS application.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145127362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Alexander Sternagel, Ashish Dinesh Rajyaguru, Luca Trevisan, Ralf Loritz, Pavel Trtik, Anders Kaestner, Brian Berkowitz, Erwin Zehe
{"title":"Microscale Heterogeneity in Fluid Distribution Patterns During Drainage of a Homogeneous Sand: Neutron Imaging Visualization and Model Limitations","authors":"Alexander Sternagel, Ashish Dinesh Rajyaguru, Luca Trevisan, Ralf Loritz, Pavel Trtik, Anders Kaestner, Brian Berkowitz, Erwin Zehe","doi":"10.1029/2025wr039963","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr039963","url":null,"abstract":"We use neutron radiography to provide high-resolution images of water distribution patterns inside the pore space of a uniformly packed sand in a flow cell, during drainage, induced by a sequence of suction tensions. The experiments reveal the emergence of heterogeneous water distribution patterns within the pore space of the sand, although its corresponding retention function suggests homogeneity. This demonstrates that truly homogeneous water movement does not occur even under controlled laboratory conditions in an, as much as possible, homogeneous porous medium, and over dimensions of only a few millimeters. Furthermore, we conduct simulations with a Darcy-Richards model aimed at (a) capturing the overall 1D drainage process of the flow cell, to obtain a macroscopic perspective on the system using spatially averaged saturation levels, and (b) gaining a more detailed microscopic understanding of the internal 2D pore space processes and spatial distribution patterns during water drainage. Simulation results show that the model can reproduce the macroscopic 1D drainage process of the flow cell with high accuracy. However, the microscopic, heterogeneous 2D distribution of water observed inside the flow cell can be reproduced only qualitatively, after manually introducing local heterogeneities into the pore space. This highlights that the successful reproduction of macroscopic dynamics with a Darcy-Richards model does not imply that the model can accordingly capture truly heterogeneous process patterns on the microscale.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145134256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Stochastic Characterization of Aquifer Permeability and Macrodispersivity Based on Point Velocity Probes Measurements (With Application to Borden Site)","authors":"Gedeon Dagan, Gerardo Severino","doi":"10.1029/2025wr041087","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr041087","url":null,"abstract":"A recently developed technology of characterization of shallow aquifers is based on the <i>point velocity probes</i> (<span style=\"font-family:monospace\">PVP</span>). At ports along vertical tubes which are inserted in the subsurface, water velocity is measured at the centimeter scale. This technique was applied by Osorno et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020wr029034) to a field test at the Borden aquifer, near the site of the transport experiment conducted by Sudicky (1986, https://doi.org/10.1029/wr022i013p02069). One of the main aims was to validate the method by identifying the aquifer hydraulic conductivity field and to compare it with the one determined by the extensive hydraulic conductivity sampling (Sudicky, 1986, https://doi.org/10.1029/wr022i013p02069). The velocities were measured along a vertical plane, normal to the mean head gradient, in the neighborhood of the previous field test area, at 420 ports along 15 vertical lines. A forced steady flow was created by recharging and pumping wells. The analysis of Osorno et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020wr029034) led to the histogram of the longitudinal log-velocities and to their transverse and vertical semi-variograms. Our main aim is to use these data to derive, by a relatively simple and general method, the statistical moments of the permeability field. We assumed that the log-conductivity is a random, stationary variable of axisymmetric two point covariance. The structure is characterized by the log-permeability mean, variance and transverse as well as vertical integral scales. The transverse and vertical velocity covariances were derived theoretically in a semi analytical form, in terms of the log-conductivity parameters, which were subsequently determined by a best fit with measurements. The resulting log-conductivity variance and integral scales were in fair agreement with those of Sudicky (1986, https://doi.org/10.1029/wr022i013p02069) and the ensuing macrodispersivity was close to the one characterizing the transport experiment. Concluding, we found by a simplified analysis that the <span style=\"font-family:monospace\">PVP</span> is a promising characterization methodology.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145134326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ehsan Zadehali, Soukaina Benaich, Shih‐Hsun Huang, Ian C. Bourg, Judy Q. Yang
{"title":"Salinity Reduces Yield Stress and Erosion Threshold in Sand‐Clay Mixtures: Evidence From Rheometry and Flume Experiments","authors":"Ehsan Zadehali, Soukaina Benaich, Shih‐Hsun Huang, Ian C. Bourg, Judy Q. Yang","doi":"10.1029/2024wr039529","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr039529","url":null,"abstract":"Sand‐clay mixtures are common in both freshwater and saltwater environments, yet how they behave under different levels of salinity remains poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the impact of salinity on the rheological properties and erosion threshold of sand‐clay mixtures through systematically controlled flume experiments and rheological measurements. Mixtures with a representative bentonite‐to‐sand ratio typical of natural estuarine and coastal sediments were prepared at salinities ranging from 0 to 35 parts per thousand (ppt), spanning freshwater to seawater conditions. We measured viscosity, flow‐point stress, and yield stress of the mixtures using a rheometer and determined the critical bed shear stress in a water‐recirculating flume. Our results indicate that as salinity increases from 0 to 35 ppt, the critical bed shear stress decreases by about two orders of magnitude, from about 60 Pa at 0 ppt to less than 1 Pa at 35 ppt. Similarly, both the flow‐point stress and yield stress decreased by over two orders of magnitude with increasing salinity. These changes correspond to a salinity‐induced transition of the sand‐bentonite mixture from a cohesive, strong‐gel state in freshwater (0 ppt), to a weak‐gel state between 3 and 10 ppt, and finally to a fluid‐like state above 10 ppt. Our research highlights the important role of salt in controlling the rheological properties and erosion threshold of fresh, non‐consolidated deposits of sand‐clay mixtures, with implications for predicting coastal landscape evolution and designing erosion‐control strategies.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"79 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145116476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Qinbo Cheng, Zhijin Ma, Andrew Binley, Jiayun Chai, Jintao Liu, Zhicai Zhang, Xi Chen
{"title":"Multi‐Elevation UAV‐Based Frequency Domain Electromagnetic Method for Data Calibration and Field Investigation","authors":"Qinbo Cheng, Zhijin Ma, Andrew Binley, Jiayun Chai, Jintao Liu, Zhicai Zhang, Xi Chen","doi":"10.1029/2024wr039579","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr039579","url":null,"abstract":"The Frequency Domain Electromagnetic Induction method (FDEM) is an efficient tool for investigating the electrical conductivity (EC) distribution over relatively shallow depths. However, the handheld method of use recommended by manufacturers does not fully leverage the non‐invasive detection capabilities offered by FDEM devices. In this study, an unmanned aerial vehicle airborne FDEM (UAV‐FDEM) system is introduced, which enables an operator to conduct investigations at specific flight heights along planned routes. Since multi‐coil FDEM instruments typically experience consistency issues among different coils, we propose a calibration method based on a multi‐elevation UAV‐FDEM approach. The approach circumvents the need for geophysical inversion during calibration, and has been successfully employed to calibrate two multi‐coil instruments. We tested the multi‐elevation UAV‐FDEM survey approach at two sites: a riparian zone of Yangtze River and a hot spring area in Tibet. The results show that the UAV‐FDEM survey findings are comparable with those obtained using electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). The surveys detected temporal changes in soil EC that correspond with observed groundwater levels changes, and successfully delineated the intrusion area and subsurface path of geothermal water. In comparison to conventional ground‐based single‐elevation measurements, the multi‐elevation UAV‐FDEM method clearly improves the deterministic coefficients (that is measures of resolution) for the inverted EC value of different soil layers, and reduces the uncertainty of the geophysical inversion results. UAV‐based FDEM surveys are efficient for large or inaccessible areas, but their application can be limited by adverse weather and restricted flight endurance.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145127861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Flood Evolution in the Past 60 Years Revealed by Reconstructed Daily Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies in China","authors":"Cuiyu Xiao, Yulong Zhong, Yunlong Wu, Zizhan Zhang, Hongbing Bai, Zilong Li","doi":"10.1029/2024wr038712","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038712","url":null,"abstract":"The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and its successor mission, the GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) satellites provide a unique capability to monitor terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA) and key hydrological variables associated with flood events. However, GRACE data is only available from 2002 onwards, which poses challenges for long-term studies of terrestrial water storage and flooding. Additionally, the monthly temporal resolution of GRACE (-FO) data limits its utility for detailed flood studies on finer time scales. Against these issues, this study employed a statistical model to reconstruct daily TWSA on a grid scale in China from 1963 to 2022. Considering that flood events have three-dimensional spatiotemporal characteristics, this study identified 359 flood events that occurred in China between 1963 and 2022 using a three-dimensional Image-CONnectivity based FLOOD identification (ICON-FLOOD) approach, combined with Normalized Daily Flood Potential Index (NDFPI) calculated from reconstructed daily TWSA and surface runoff. The spatiotemporal variations characteristics of flood events in China over the past 60 years were also analyzed. The results show that 60 flood events that were not recorded in these three disaster databases but actually occurred were detected. The average duration, intensity, and affected area have experienced an “increase-decrease-increase-decrease-increase” process. Notably, in the past 20 years, the duration, intensity, and affected area of flood events are increasing. The methods and findings of this study may provide valuable references for flood risk management and mechanism analysis.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145103811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Probabilistic Physics-Guided Deep Neural Networks With Recurrence and Attention Mechanisms for Interpretable Daily Streamflow Simulation","authors":"Sadegh Sadeghi Tabas, Vidya Samadi, Catherine Wilson, Biswa Bhattacharya","doi":"10.1029/2025wr040173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr040173","url":null,"abstract":"As Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are being increasingly employed to make important simulations in rainfall-runoff contexts, the demand for interpretability is increasing in the hydrology community. Interpretability is not just a scientific question, but rather knowing where the models fall flat, how to fix them, and how to explain their outcomes to scientific communities so that everyone understands how the model arrives at specific simulations This paper addresses these challenges by deciphering interpretable probabilistic DNNs utilizing the Deep Autoregressive Recurrent (DeepAR) and Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) for daily streamflow simulation across the continental United States (CONUS). We benchmarked TFT and DeepAR against conceptual to physics-based hydrologic models. In this setting, catchment physical attributes were incorporated into the training process to create physics-guided TFT and DeepAR configurations. Our proposed physics-guided configurations are also designed to aggregate the patterns across the entire data set, analyze the sensitivity of key catchment physical attributes and facilitate the interpretability of temporal dynamics in rainfall-runoff generation mechanisms. To assess the uncertainty, the modeling configurations were coupled with a quantile regression by adding Gaussian noise <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/f08ca202-e8b6-4447-8b71-f3014d7da62e/wrcr70337-math-0001.png\"></span><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00431397:media:wrcr70337:wrcr70337-math-0001\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/wrcr70337-math-0001.png\">\u0000<semantics>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<mi>N</mi>\u0000<mspace width=\"0.25em\"></mspace>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<mo>(</mo>\u0000<mrow>\u0000<mn>0</mn>\u0000<mo>,</mo>\u0000<mi>σ</mi>\u0000</mrow>\u0000<mo>)</mo>\u0000</mrow>\u0000</mrow>\u0000$N,(0,sigma )$</annotation>\u0000</semantics></math> with increasing standard deviation to the individual catchment attributes. Analysis suggested that the physics-guided TFT was superior in predicting daily streamflow compared to the original TFT and DeepAR as well as benchmark hydrologic models. Predictive uncertainty intervals effectively bracketed most of the observational data by simultaneous simulation of various percentiles (e.g., 10th, 50th, and 90th). Interpretable physics-guided TFT proved to be a strong candidate for CONUS daily streamflow simulations.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"78 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145103810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Revegetation Reduces Soil Moisture and Groundwater but Not Water Yield in Humid Karst Areas","authors":"Sibo Zeng, Yongjun Jiang, Zaihua Liu, Junbing Pu, Kazakis Nerantzis, Qiufang He, Ze Wu, Xing Tian","doi":"10.1029/2024wr038758","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038758","url":null,"abstract":"While vegetation restoration results in increased carbon storage and benefits ecosystems, its effects on water availability in ecologically fragile karst areas are unclear. Here, we investigate the long-term spatial-temporal variations of climate parameters, vegetation greenness, hydrological variables (evapotranspiration, runoff, soil moisture), water yield, and terrestrial water storage in the Southwest China Karst (1982–2018), where large-scale ecological restoration projects (ERPs) were implemented in the past few decades. The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) was employed to quantify the contributions of climate change and vegetation greening on the changes in water availability in this humid region. We found that vegetation greening in the Southwest China Karst was significant during 1982–2018. Climate change resulted in a remarkable change from a wetting trend to a drying trend during 1993–2013. We show that the vegetation-greening and climate change across this humid region strongly increased the evapotranspiration (ET, +2.08–2.67 mm yr<sup>−1</sup>) and reduced the terrestrial water storage (TWS, −2.19–2.96 mm yr<sup>−1</sup>) over the past almost four decades, while the water yield was almost unchanged. Vegetation greening accounted for a ∼26.43%–52.09% decrease in TWS, and we attribute this water depletion to decreases in soil moisture and groundwater during dry years (1993–2013). These findings show that future “green projects” in humid karst areas should consider the impact of revegetation on the sustainable water supply.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145103715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}