Flood Evolution in the Past 60 Years Revealed by Reconstructed Daily Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies in China

IF 5 1区地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Water Resources Research Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI:10.1029/2024wr038712

Cuiyu Xiao, Yulong Zhong, Yunlong Wu, Zizhan Zhang, Hongbing Bai, Zilong Li

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and its successor mission, the GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) satellites provide a unique capability to monitor terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA) and key hydrological variables associated with flood events. However, GRACE data is only available from 2002 onwards, which poses challenges for long-term studies of terrestrial water storage and flooding. Additionally, the monthly temporal resolution of GRACE (-FO) data limits its utility for detailed flood studies on finer time scales. Against these issues, this study employed a statistical model to reconstruct daily TWSA on a grid scale in China from 1963 to 2022. Considering that flood events have three-dimensional spatiotemporal characteristics, this study identified 359 flood events that occurred in China between 1963 and 2022 using a three-dimensional Image-CONnectivity based FLOOD identification (ICON-FLOOD) approach, combined with Normalized Daily Flood Potential Index (NDFPI) calculated from reconstructed daily TWSA and surface runoff. The spatiotemporal variations characteristics of flood events in China over the past 60 years were also analyzed. The results show that 60 flood events that were not recorded in these three disaster databases but actually occurred were detected. The average duration, intensity, and affected area have experienced an “increase-decrease-increase-decrease-increase” process. Notably, in the past 20 years, the duration, intensity, and affected area of flood events are increasing. The methods and findings of this study may provide valuable references for flood risk management and mechanism analysis.

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中国陆地日蓄水量异常重建揭示的近60年洪水演变

重力恢复和气候实验（GRACE）卫星及其后续任务，GRACE后续（GRACE- fo）卫星提供了监测陆地储水异常（TWSA）和与洪水事件相关的关键水文变量的独特能力。然而，GRACE只提供2002年以后的数据，这对陆地储水和洪水的长期研究提出了挑战。此外，GRACE （-FO）数据的月时间分辨率限制了其在更细时间尺度上进行详细洪水研究的效用。针对这些问题，本研究采用统计模型重构了1963 - 2022年中国网格尺度的日TWSA。考虑到洪水事件具有三维时空特征，本研究采用基于三维图像连通性的洪水识别（图标-洪水）方法，结合由重建的日TWSA和地表径流计算的归一化日洪水潜力指数（NDFPI），对1963 - 2022年间中国发生的359次洪水事件进行了识别。分析了近60年来中国洪水事件的时空变化特征。结果表明，在这3个灾害数据库中，共检测到60起未被记录但实际发生的洪水事件。平均持续时间、强度和受影响区域经历了“增加-减少-增加-减少-增加”的过程。值得注意的是，近20年来，洪水事件的持续时间、强度和影响范围都在增加。本研究的方法和结果可为洪水风险管理和机理分析提供有价值的参考。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Water Resources Research 环境科学-湖沼学

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

13.00%

发文量

599

审稿时长

3.5 months

期刊介绍： Water Resources Research (WRR) is an interdisciplinary journal that focuses on hydrology and water resources. It publishes original research in the natural and social sciences of water. It emphasizes the role of water in the Earth system, including physical, chemical, biological, and ecological processes in water resources research and management, including social, policy, and public health implications. It encompasses observational, experimental, theoretical, analytical, numerical, and data-driven approaches that advance the science of water and its management. Submissions are evaluated for their novelty, accuracy, significance, and broader implications of the findings.