Gabriel Möring-Martínez, Murat Senzeybek, Samuel Hasselwander, Stephan Schmid
{"title":"Quantifying the impact of fleet turnover on electric vehicle uptake in Europe","authors":"Gabriel Möring-Martínez, Murat Senzeybek, Samuel Hasselwander, Stephan Schmid","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104945","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104945","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To achieve the EU’s decarbonization targets of the passenger car fleet by 2050, additional measures are required that go beyond the current policy. This paper presents a modular approach to project the future composition of the EU’s passenger car fleet, focusing on battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The methodology combines a bottom-up transportation model to estimate new BEV registrations with a country-specific empirical model based on survival rates to estimate the future BEV fleet composition. Findings show a significant increase in vehicle lifespan across the EU since 2008, posing a barrier to rapid fleet electrification. Assuming constant 2021 survival rates until 2050, the European BEV stock share is projected to reach 85% by 2050. Restoring turnover rates to 2008 levels could increase this share to 92%, while continued increases in vehicle life could lower it to 78%. Significantly different levels of passenger car fleet electrification across EU Member States are observed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 104945"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144903656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Post-pandemic public transport resilience and mode shift dynamics in India","authors":"Shahiq Ahmad Wani, Ranju Mohan","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104968","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104968","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted urban travel, with conflicting perspectives on the permanence of these changes. This study analyses data from 48,839 respondents across twelve diverse Indian cities, using a mixed-methods approach, including machine learning (ML) and Double Machine Learning (DML) to examine pre- and post-pandemic mode choice dynamics at aggregate and city-specific levels. The ML analysis identified fundamental life circumstances as the primary predictors of mode choice. The DML analysis revealed that while public transport (PT) demonstrated significant resilience, powerful behavioural inertia persists, and specific service failures causally deter PT adoption. Pre-pandemic private vehicle use is causally linked to a lower likelihood of shifting to PT. Furthermore, safety and comfort issues, such as station cleanliness and staff professionalism, are causally linked to negative passenger perceptions. The study highlights significant city-specific variations and informs targeted, actionable, evidence-based policy recommendations for developing more resilient and environmentally sustainable urban transport systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 104968"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144895185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Policies can accelerate EV diffusion by enhancing consumer expectations of future prevalence","authors":"Tomoya Akiyama, Tatsuya Kameda","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104964","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104964","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The early stages of electric vehicle (EV) adoption face a classic chicken-and-egg dilemma: EVs are inconvenient without sufficient public chargers, while installing chargers is unprofitable with too few EVs. Government policies may help break this cycle by fostering optimistic expectations about future EV diffusion. We conducted a randomized controlled pre-post survey experiment with 500 Tokyo residents, where only treatment groups received information about the city’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales target and a new EV-ready building code requiring charger installation in new apartment complexes. Results show that exposure to this policy information increased participants’ willingness to purchase a ZEV—even among those not directly affected by the policies. Mediation analysis indicates the effect was driven by enhanced optimism about future ZEV adoption. These findings highlight the critical role of consumer expectations in shaping the effectiveness of EV policies and underscore the value of broadly communicating policy initiatives to accelerate EV adoption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 104964"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144895183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yanfeng Xu , Mingyu Kang , Duxin Chen , Chenyang Wu , Xinglong Wang , Ran Tu , Wenwu Yu
{"title":"Flight departure optimization reduces airport CO2 emissions proved by Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei multiple-airport-region","authors":"Yanfeng Xu , Mingyu Kang , Duxin Chen , Chenyang Wu , Xinglong Wang , Ran Tu , Wenwu Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104920","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104920","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing number of flights in operation calls for scheduling optimization to alleviate departure delays and improve airport environmental efficiency. In this study, an aircraft dispatching model is proposed and solved with a digital twin (DT) system to capture the real-time airport operations. Setting the minimum airport surface operational emissions as the objective, this model highlights the resource utilization of the multiple-airport-region (MAR) in addition to the constraints from individual airports. DT simulation was applied to facilitate the real-time operational optimization within the region. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei MAR (BTH-MAR) is used as an example for DT system simulation validation, and the experimental results show that our model can effectively mitigate the flight delay, with Beijing Capital Airport able to reduce flight delays by 89 s on average, reduce takeoff congestion by 46 s on average, and altogether reduce 10% CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in the takeoff phase.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 104920"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144880283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jiangbo Wang , Zhongyu Sun , Jason Cao , Kai Liu , De Wang
{"title":"Counterproductive development: New towns may produce and attract more long-distance commuting","authors":"Jiangbo Wang , Zhongyu Sun , Jason Cao , Kai Liu , De Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104958","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104958","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Aggregate studies on commuting behavior have primarily focused on trips produced from an area while overlooking those attracted to the area, leading to a partial understanding of commuting patterns. Using mobile phone signaling data from Dalian and Shenyang, China, this study illustrates the spatial distributions of produced and attracted commuting distances and examines their nonlinear associations with built environment characteristics, using an XGBoost model. Results show strong positive correlations between produced and attracted commuting. Distance to business center is the most important predictor. As this distance grows, both produced and attracted commuting distances increase. Its association with attracted commuting distance differs from that in developed countries. Notably, some suburban new towns—intended to reduce commuting through simultaneous population and employment decentralization—have evolved into sparsely populated “job islands,” intensifying long-distance commuting instead. Therefore, phased development and more integrated residential and employment decentralization are conducive to mitigating long-distance commutes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 104958"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144863386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Qingquan Sha , Jiawei Zhao , Lin Huang , Wei Cao , Jiahui Li , Liangxia Zhang , Yun Wang
{"title":"A remote sensing-based paradigm for revealing road ecological impacts in permafrost regions","authors":"Qingquan Sha , Jiawei Zhao , Lin Huang , Wei Cao , Jiahui Li , Liangxia Zhang , Yun Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104933","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104933","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The ecological impacts of roads in permafrost regions remain poorly understood, particularly at small and medium scale, limiting effective conservation and road management strategies. We propose a multi-scale remote sensing-based paradigm to quantify these impacts throughout road construction and operation. Using spatial deviation (<em>D</em>), change rate (<em>I</em>), and Road Ecological Impact Index (REII), we assessed the Gongyu Expressway, the first expressway on the Tibetan Plateau. Results show that surface water and vegetation impacts extended up to 100 m, with seasonal variations: rainy season effects were 4–6 times stronger, and construction impacts exceeded operation impacts by 1.1–1.4 times. Monthly impact amplitudes surpassed annual values, highlighting intensified short-term variations. Our paradigm enables rapid, high-precision monitoring of road-induced ecosystem stresses, reducing time lags in ecological assessment. Given the sensitivity of permafrost environments, this approach is crucial for predicting and mitigating the long-term ecological effects of expanding expressway networks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 104933"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144830009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Enhancement of roadway pavement resilience to flooding: impact assessment and mitigation strategies","authors":"Xiao Chen, Hao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104946","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104946","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flooding has been a great threat to the functionality and longevity of transportation infrastructure, particularly roadway pavements. This study utilizes a systematic approach to improve roadway resilience through comprehensive review and synthesis of existing knowledge and identification of current gaps. The study first reveals the diverse mechanisms of flooding-related risk, including surface material degradation, hydraulic scouring, subsurface saturation, subgrade erosion, and washout. It then explores non-destructive testing methods, and pavement performance modelling approaches for assessing flooding impacts through fragility curves, highlighting their respective advantages and limitations. Finally, various mitigation strategies are discussed, each offering unique benefits. These include nature-based solutions, roadway geometry adjustments, pavement design and maintenance enhancements, and post-flooding operation. Future research is recommended to better understand and prevent washout damage, characterize recovery period after flooding, and select mitigation strategies based on life-cycle assessment for improving infrastructure resilience under climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 104946"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145010952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Assessing spatial access disparities to critical facilities during hurricanes in Florida","authors":"Pooya Komeilian , Ramin Shabanpour","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104957","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104957","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates equitable access to critical facilities including gas stations, hotels, and shelters during hurricane evacuations in Florida. Using facility location data from the Homeland Infrastructure Foundation-Level Data and Google Places API, alongside hurricane risk data from FEMA’s National Risk Index, we develop an Evacuation Resource Index (ERI). The ERI incorporates facility proximity, calculated using a network-based approach, and population distribution to assess the adequacy of resources during evacuations. Univariate analysis using Local Moran’s I—a Local Indicator of Spatial Association—highlights significant statewide disparities in resource access, while the corresponding bivariate analysis pinpoints vulnerability hotspots where low ERI and high hurricane risk converge. It is also found that these hotspots are disproportionately populated by socially vulnerable communities characterized by factors such as low incomes, limited vehicle access, linguistic isolation, and older age. Furthermore, these areas exhibit high income inequality, as indicated by their Gini index. This research underscores the urgent need for equitable disaster preparedness strategies that prioritize vulnerable populations residing in high-risk areas. By addressing these disparities, we can enhance evacuation effectiveness and foster community resilience in the face of hurricanes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 104957"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144830007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Wenqi Lu , Dongyu Luo , Ziwei Yi , Yikang Rui , Bin Ran
{"title":"Planning smart link-based geofences for urban sustainability via speed limit management","authors":"Wenqi Lu , Dongyu Luo , Ziwei Yi , Yikang Rui , Bin Ran","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104950","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104950","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban transportation faces severe challenges, including congestion, air pollution, and increased fuel consumption. With the widespread deployment of road monitoring equipment and the emergence of connected automated vehicles, precise speed management has become feasible. This paper combines link-based geofencing technology with speed management and proposes a smart link-based geofence planning (SLGP) approach based on deep reinforcement learning. We designed a sustainability-oriented reward function, enabling SLGP to simultaneously optimize traffic efficiency and reduce emission and fuel consumption when planning speed limits. Furthermore, we built a digital twin simulation platform that integrates multiple functional modules and scenarios for comprehensively evaluating the effectiveness of the SLGP. The results indicate that the SLGP significantly enhances urban transportation sustainability across various scenarios, particularly under high-volume scenarios, where it effectively reduces emissions and fuel consumption. This study provides robust support for leveraging digital twin and artificial intelligence technologies to empower traffic management and promote sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 104950"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144827045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shima Ashja-Ardalan , Ali Asghar Alesheikh , Mohammad Sharif , Dirk Wittowsky
{"title":"Resilience of urban road networks to climate change: a spatial-topological approach","authors":"Shima Ashja-Ardalan , Ali Asghar Alesheikh , Mohammad Sharif , Dirk Wittowsky","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104948","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104948","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As climate change intensifies, ensuring the resilience of urban road networks against mid- to long-term climatic shifts is crucial. This study develops a novel framework combining complex network theory, topological measures, and spatial climate exposure to assess road network resilience under climate change scenarios, focusing on precipitation and temperature changes. Entropy-weighted TOPSIS identifies key network components based on combined topological and spatial criteria, while resilience is evaluated through four component removal strategies: random, topological-based, climate-based, and spatial-topological. Metrics such as normalized efficiency, relative size of the giant component, average shortest path, and diameter are analyzed. Applying this approach to Duisburg, Germany, results highlight that central and southeastern regions require priority climate adaptation, containing key components especially under SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 precipitation scenarios, where resilience is lower. The study underscores the necessity of integrating spatial and topological factors for effective climate adaptation planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 104948"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145027292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}