Tobacco ControlPub Date : 2024-08-06DOI: 10.1136/tc-2024-058711
Belen Saenz-de-Miera, Kevin Welding, Tuo-Yen Tseng, Graziele Grilo, Joanna E Cohen
{"title":"Tobacco industry pricing strategies during recent tax adjustments in Mexico: evidence from sales data.","authors":"Belen Saenz-de-Miera, Kevin Welding, Tuo-Yen Tseng, Graziele Grilo, Joanna E Cohen","doi":"10.1136/tc-2024-058711","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/tc-2024-058711","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Previous studies have identified pricing strategies that the tobacco industry employs to try to minimise the impact of tobacco taxation, but these studies are mostly about high-income countries. This research examines industry price responses to a recent cigarette tax increase in Mexico, including in the capsule cigarette segment that has expanded rapidly in Latin America.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data of cigarette prices and sales in Mexico between October 2018 and September 2021 licensed from NielsenIQ were used following a quasi-experimental design to analyse price changes after excise tax increases with fixed effect models by product. To explore heterogeneous responses, estimates were disaggregated by cigarette attributes such as presence of capsules and market segment. Differential shifting was also assessed.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Increasing the tobacco tax from 2011MX$0.35(≈US$0.02) to 2020 MX$0.4944(≈US$0.0283) in January 2020 was associated with an overall 8% cigarette price increase in real terms. However, some cigarette types, including premium to discount segments, exhibited price increases larger than the tax increase, which reduced the relative price of ultra-low-priced cigarettes. Instead of a single hike, prices were gradually raised throughout the first months of 2020 for all cigarette types. A combination of both pricing strategies was employed for capsule cigarettes. The 2021 smaller tax adjustment for annual inflation was fully passed onto consumer, maintaining real prices constant.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The industry's ability to raise prices more than the tax increase and manage these price increases smoothly suggests that there was room for larger tobacco tax increases in Mexico. Future developments on tobacco taxes could consider a fully specific tax structure or minimum taxes to mitigate the adverse effects of market segmentation and differential shifting.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141898289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tobacco ControlPub Date : 2024-08-03DOI: 10.1136/tc-2023-058511
John Mehegan, Allen Gallagher, Sherif Elmitwalli, Richard Edwards, Anna Gilmore
{"title":"Analysis of Philip Morris International's 'aspirational' target for its 2025 cigarette shipments.","authors":"John Mehegan, Allen Gallagher, Sherif Elmitwalli, Richard Edwards, Anna Gilmore","doi":"10.1136/tc-2023-058511","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2023-058511","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Philip Morris International (PMI) claims to be transforming and has committed to a 'smoke-free' future. In 2020, it announced an 'aspirational' target for reduced cigarette shipments by 2025.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>PMI cigarette shipment data are taken from PMI quarterly financial reports 2008-2023. Trends in these data before and after the 2020 announcement are analysed using linear regression, and auto regressive integrated moving average and error, trend, seasonal time-series models to assess if PMI's 2025 target would be met on pre-existing trends, and if the trend changed after the announcement. These trends are also compared with the global retail market for cigarettes, using sales data from Euromonitor.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Findings were consistent across all three models. PMI's shipment target of 550 billion cigarette sticks by 2025 would readily have been met given pre-existing shipment trends. Following the 2020 announcement, the decline in PMI cigarette shipments stalled markedly with a statistically significant change in trend (p<0.001). The current and projected trend to 2025 is consistent with no further decline in cigarette volumes, meaning PMI is unlikely to hit its target. This mirrors a global pattern in which declines in cigarette sales have stalled since 2020.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>PMI's 2025 target was not 'aspirational' but highly conservative-it would have been met based on pre-existing trends in declining cigarette shipments. Yet PMI will nonetheless fail to meet that target providing evidence it is not transforming. Stalling of the decline of PMI and global cigarette sales raises significant concerns about progress in global tobacco control.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141087797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tobacco ControlPub Date : 2024-08-01DOI: 10.1136/tc-2023-058549
Hana Raskin, Melina Samar Magsumbol, Nandita Murukutla
{"title":"Future of tobacco marketing: the metaverse, NFTs and the next generation of the internet.","authors":"Hana Raskin, Melina Samar Magsumbol, Nandita Murukutla","doi":"10.1136/tc-2023-058549","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/tc-2023-058549","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141876052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Chasing a buzz: developments in the nicotine pouch market in the UK.","authors":"Crawford Moodie, Georgia Alexandrou, Kamran Siddiqi","doi":"10.1136/tc-2024-058679","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/tc-2024-058679","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141876051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tobacco ControlPub Date : 2024-07-31DOI: 10.1136/tc-2023-058568
Marion Devaux, Marina Dorfmuller Ciampi, Romain Guignard, Aliénor Lerouge, Alexandra Aldea, Viêt Nguyen-Thanh, François Beck, Pierre Arwidson, Michele Cecchini
{"title":"Economic evaluation of the recent French tobacco control policy: a model-based approach.","authors":"Marion Devaux, Marina Dorfmuller Ciampi, Romain Guignard, Aliénor Lerouge, Alexandra Aldea, Viêt Nguyen-Thanh, François Beck, Pierre Arwidson, Michele Cecchini","doi":"10.1136/tc-2023-058568","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/tc-2023-058568","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>One in four French adults smoked daily in 2021, compared with one in six in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. To strengthen its tobacco control policy, in 2016, France has started implementing a policy package that includes a 3-year gradual price increase, plain packaging, an annual social marketing campaign promoting cessation and the reimbursement of nicotine replacement products. This study aims to evaluate the health and economic impact of this policy package.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The long-term policy impact on disease cases, healthcare expenditure and gains in labour participation and productivity was evaluated by using the OECD microsimulation model for Strategic Public Health Planning for Non-Communicable Diseases. The model was fed with historical and projected trends on tobacco smoking prevalence as produced by the policy package.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Over the period 2023-2050, the policy package is estimated to avoid about 4.03 million (2.09-11.84 million) cases of chronic diseases, save €578 million (365-1848 million) per year in health expenditure and increase employment and workforce productivity by the equivalent to 19 800 (9100-59 900) additional full-time workers per year, compared with a scenario in which the intervention package is not implemented. The intervention cost is estimated at about €148 million per year. For each euro invested in the policy package, €4 will be returned in long-term savings in healthcare expenditure.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The tobacco control policy package implemented by France, targeting smoking initiation and promoting tobacco cessation is an effective intervention with an excellent return on investment.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141861036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tobacco ControlPub Date : 2024-07-31DOI: 10.1136/tc-2024-058651
Reid C Whaley, Erin A Vogel, Ariana Coba Clementel, Jessica L Barrington-Trimis, Rob McConnell, Feifei Liu, Steve Sussman, Alyssa F Harlow, Jennifer B Unger, Alayna P Tackett, Adam M Leventhal
{"title":"Effects of exposure to snus marketing with versus without modified risk tobacco product claims on snus use intention and perceived harm among young adults.","authors":"Reid C Whaley, Erin A Vogel, Ariana Coba Clementel, Jessica L Barrington-Trimis, Rob McConnell, Feifei Liu, Steve Sussman, Alyssa F Harlow, Jennifer B Unger, Alayna P Tackett, Adam M Leventhal","doi":"10.1136/tc-2024-058651","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2024-058651","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>We tested whether snus marketing with modified risk tobacco product (MRTP) claims: (a) promotes accurate knowledge about snus's health effects in young adults and (b) encourages use intentions in only those who use combustible tobacco without attracting other young adult populations.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A randomised between-subjects experiment was embedded in a 2020 web survey of participants from Los Angeles (aged 19-23 years). Participants viewed mass-marketed snus advertising materials with (n=1212) vs without (n=1225) US Food and Drug Administration-authorised MRTP claims. After advertising exposure, snus use intention and perceptions of snus harms relative to cigarettes or e-cigarettes were measured.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Advertisements with versus without MRTP claims did not affect snus use intention (18.0% vs 19.4%) but produced a higher prevalence of perceptions that snus was less harmful than cigarettes (12.6% vs 9.1%; p=0.007) and e-cigarettes (8.0% vs 5.8%; p=0.04). MRTP claim exposure effects did not differ by past 30-day e-cigarette or combustible tobacco use. Snus use intentions after marketing exposure, collapsed across MRTP claim conditions, were higher in those who did versus did not report past 30-day use of e-cigarettes (38.4% vs 14.3%; adjusted OR (95% CI) 2.95 (2.28 to 3.81); p<0.001) or combustible tobacco (44.0% vs 16.2%; adjusted OR (95% CI) 2.26 (1.62 to 3.16); p<0.001).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Although some young adults who vape or smoke may have snus use intentions, snus MRTP claims might not affect young adults' snus use intentions, regardless of whether they vape/smoke. MRTP claims might modestly increase the accuracy of perceived harms of snus relative to cigarettes while also slightly causing unsubstantiated perceptions of lower harm than e-cigarettes.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141860980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tobacco ControlPub Date : 2024-07-26DOI: 10.1136/tc-2024-058719
Nathan A Silver, Elexis C Kierstead, Sherry L Emery, Steven Binns, Mignonne C Guy, Barbara Schillo
{"title":"Reframing social media discourse following the FDA's menthol ban announcement as industry agenda setting rather than public sentiment.","authors":"Nathan A Silver, Elexis C Kierstead, Sherry L Emery, Steven Binns, Mignonne C Guy, Barbara Schillo","doi":"10.1136/tc-2024-058719","DOIUrl":"10.1136/tc-2024-058719","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The tobacco industry has spent millions of dollars promoting racialised narratives against the US Food and Drug Administration's recently announced ban on menthol as a characterising cigarette flavour. This research investigates racialised narratives in online discourse following the ban's announcement.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Tweets and users responding to the April 2022 menthol ban announcement were content analysed to examine the influence of tobacco industry affiliates and potentially organic African-American/Black (AA/B) users. Next we investigated the extent to which the menthol ban was discussed on AA/B subreddits and used Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic modelling to provide an overview of the menthol ban discussion on Reddit.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Only 28 (13.9%) tweets by 22 users claimed that the menthol ban would lead to police violence and/or racial discrimination. Of users who tweeted about over-policing, eight (36.4%) had financial connections to the tobacco industry. There were only three tweets receiving a combined seven retweets from potentially organic AA/B users. On Reddit, only two posts with one comment discussed the menthol ban on subreddits dedicated to AA/B issues and culture. Topic modelling showed that the most common topic related to the menthol ban involved the social and political implications of the ban followed by illicit markets and protecting youth.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Tweets claiming a menthol ban will lead to police violence are indicative of industry agenda-setting. The menthol ban was not a prominent topic of discussion in AA/B subreddits although users discussing news and politics expressed concern for how AA/B people would respond to a ban politically.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141767431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tobacco ControlPub Date : 2024-07-25DOI: 10.1136/tc-2024-058788
Ziyad Ben Taleb, Danny Edson Dabroy, Steven Alec Barrientos, Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan
{"title":"Hookah Battle: the global sponsoring and brand marketing of smoking competitions.","authors":"Ziyad Ben Taleb, Danny Edson Dabroy, Steven Alec Barrientos, Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan","doi":"10.1136/tc-2024-058788","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/tc-2024-058788","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141767430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tobacco ControlPub Date : 2024-07-22DOI: 10.1136/tc-2024-058690
André Salem Szklo, Adriana Carvalho, Mariana Coutinho Marques de Pinho, Mirian Carvalho de Souza, Neilane Bertoni, Andre Luiz Oliveira da Silva
{"title":"Bitter taste of the tobacco industry interference in Brazil.","authors":"André Salem Szklo, Adriana Carvalho, Mariana Coutinho Marques de Pinho, Mirian Carvalho de Souza, Neilane Bertoni, Andre Luiz Oliveira da Silva","doi":"10.1136/tc-2024-058690","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/tc-2024-058690","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>Although Brazil became the first country worldwide to ban the sale of all tobacco products with any additive that could alter their flavours and tastes in 2012, its implementation was effectively halted by tobacco industry lawsuits, including a constitutional challenge filed in the Federal Supreme Court in 2013. This study aimed at examining, for the first time in the country, the evolution over time of the new registrations of tobacco products with additives that would have been banned if not for the tobacco industry's interference ('counterfactual scenario').</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used the newly available public database on the registration of tobacco products developed by the Health Regulatory Agency (from 2008 onwards). All types of tobacco products intended for the domestic market that contained 'banned additives in a counterfactual scenario' and were registered between January 1 and December 31 of each year were selected.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Between 2012 and 2023, a total of 1112 new registrations of tobacco products with 'banned additives' were recorded. The spread of hookah tobacco registrations started in 2014, and by 2023, the cumulative incidence of registrations containing 'banned additives' was 641. Both manufactured cigarettes and hookah products reached their peaks in new registrations in 2020.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>After 12 years since the resolution intended to ban all additives that change the aroma and taste of tobacco products in Brazil, primarily to prevent smoking initiation, the tobacco industry's interference continues to successfully block its implementation. Countries facing similar challenges in tobacco control could consider generating comparable national data that might help expose the adverse impacts of tobacco industry interference on public health.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141749084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tobacco ControlPub Date : 2024-07-22DOI: 10.1136/tc-2024-058596
Katia Gallegos Carrillo, Dèsirée Vidaña-Pérez, Inti Barrientos-Gutierrez, Edna Arillo-Santillán, Lizeth Cruz-Jiménez, Rosibel Rodríguez-Bolaños, James F Thrasher
{"title":"To use or not to use electronic cigarettes? Reasons for use, stopping use and their behavioural sequelae among Mexicans who smoke.","authors":"Katia Gallegos Carrillo, Dèsirée Vidaña-Pérez, Inti Barrientos-Gutierrez, Edna Arillo-Santillán, Lizeth Cruz-Jiménez, Rosibel Rodríguez-Bolaños, James F Thrasher","doi":"10.1136/tc-2024-058596","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/tc-2024-058596","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Reasons for using and stopping the use of e-cigarettes and their associations with transitions in nicotine product use are relatively unknown in countries with e-cigarette bans, such as Mexico.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data comes from an open cohort of people who smoke in Mexico, surveyed every 4 months from November 2018 to November 2021. Those who smoked and used e-cigarettes at time t (n=904 individuals, 1653 observations) were categorised at 4-month follow-up (t+1): (1) continued 'dual use', (2) exclusive smoking, (3) exclusive use of e-cigarettes or neither product. For people who formerly used e-cigarettes at time t (n=332 individuals, 372 observations), follow-up categories were: (1) continued exclusive smoking; (2) re-initiated e-cigarette use. Multinomial and logistic models regressed follow-up status (ref=status at time t) on reasons for using or stopping e-cigarette use, respectively, at time t, adjusting for covariates.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The most prevalent reasons for current e-cigarette use were 'they were less harmful to others' (40.5%) and 'enjoyable' (39.0%). Those who reported using e-cigarettes because they were less harmful to others (Adjusted Relative Risk Ratio (ARRR)=0.67), more enjoyable (ARRR=0.52), could help them to quit smoking (ARRR=0.65), or to control weight (ARRR=0.46) were less likely to return to exclusively smoking. Among people who formerly used e-cigarettes, lack of satisfaction was the primary reason for stopping e-cigarette use (32%) and those who reported this were less likely to start using e-cigarettes again at follow-up (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR)=0.58).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Specific reasons for using and stopping e-cigarettes predict changes in smoking and e-cigarette use, and targeting these beliefs could promote desired behaviour changes.</p>","PeriodicalId":23145,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141749085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}