Assessing the effects of minimum floor price laws on tobacco use among youth in the state of Virginia, USA: an agent-based simulation approach.

Background: Preventing youth exposure to cigarette smoking is a public health priority. One of the most effective ways to reduce tobacco use is to increase the prices of tobacco products. Minimum floor price laws (MFPLs) are a relatively new but more feasible strategy that sets a price below which the product cannot be sold. We aim to examine the effects of minimum floor prices (MFPs) on tobacco use among youth in Virginia.

Methods: An agent-based modelling (ABM) was developed from bottom-up to evaluate the influence of increasing the cigarette MFPs on middle and high school students' smoking behaviour in the state of Virginia. A rational-addiction model was integrated to model the smoking decision of youth under the dynamic utility maximisation framework within the ABM.

Results: The model predicted that every 10% increase in the MFP in Virginia could prevent 2232 8th graders and 1890 12th graders from cigarette smoking, a 2.4% and 1.8% reduction in median smoking prevalence. For students who smoked, 8th and 12th graders would consume 0.36 and 0.45 fewer cigarettes per smoking day if experiencing a 10% increase in the MFP from the baseline US$7.50 to US$8.30. The MFP level that produces the maximal response was estimated to be between 10% and 30%.

Conclusions: MFPLs provide local jurisdictions with a potentially effective strategy to reduce tobacco use and mitigate-related harms among youth.