The Scientific Journal Grain Crops最新文献

{"title":"Influence of treatment of seeds with disinfectants and microfertilizers on seeding quality and yield of spring wheat","authors":"A. Siroshtan, O. Zaima, V. Kavunets, S. F. Liskovskyi","doi":"10.31867/2523-4544/0183","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31867/2523-4544/0183","url":null,"abstract":"The research was conducted in 2019–2020 at the Myronivka Institute of Wheat. Seeds of such spring wheat varieties as MIP Zlata, Bozhena, MIP Raiduzhna, Diana were used in the experiment. When determin-ing the sowing qualities of spring wheat seeds, depending on the treatment with the disinfectant, it was found that these preparations had a positive effect on them. Seed treatment was carried out with disinfectants Maxim Star 025 FS (1.5 l/t), Yunta Quattro FS 373.4 (1.5 l/t), Cruiser 350 FS (0.5 l/t) in combination with micro-fertilizer Orakul nasinnia (0,5 l/t). Seed treatment with the studied chemicals revealed an increase in seed germination activity by 5–15 % and a slight increase in seed vigor and laboratory germination. The highest seed germination activity of the studied varieties was observed at treatment with combi-nation of Cruiser 350 FS + Orakul nasinnia, highest indicator of seed vigor – Celest Max 165 FS + Orakul nasinnia, and laboratory germination – Yunta Quattro 373.4 FS + Orakul nasinnia. The grain yield was significantly increased due to the seed treatment of spring wheat with dressing chemicals in combination with biological microfertilizers. The increase in grain yield was: MIP Zlata – 0.31–0.35 t/ha, Bozhena – 0.30–0.36 t/ha, MIP Raiduzhna – 0.32–0.38 t/ha, Diana – 0.31–0, 35 t/ha. Higher in-creases in grain yield of all varieties were observed when seed dressing was carried out with insecti-cides/fungicides together with the biological microfertilizer Orakul nasinnia. On the basis of the conducted researches, it was established that grain yield and sowing seed qualities of spring wheat under seed treatment with combination of seed dressing chemicals with microfertilizer were significantly increased. As a result, we suggest seed farmers to apply the foregoing seed dressing chemicals. Key words: spring wheat, seed dressing chemicals, microfertilizer, seed treatment, sowing quality, yield.","PeriodicalId":23071,"journal":{"name":"The Scientific Journal Grain Crops","volume":"239 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89043460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Agroeconomic justification of the maize and soybean production at coulisse-strip planting","authors":"S. Artemenko, O. Kovtun","doi":"10.31867/2523-4544/0200","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31867/2523-4544/0200","url":null,"abstract":"We researched the formation of maize and soybean grain productivity in conditions of insufficient moisture at coulisse-strip planting with mineral fertilizer application in a rate of N30Р30К30 under primary tillage and rational use of moisture. In conditions of insufficient moisture and at the alternation of maize and soybean rows, it was found that the illumination of the agrocenosis significantly changed, especially in adjacent rows. In this case, there were differences in temperature and humidity of air, on soil surface and between rows on the plot. The best results were obtained with the wide-row sowing maize and soybeans with 45 cm row spacing compared to 70 cm row spacing. Under the canopy of closed soybean leaves in 30 and 45 cm row spacing, the air temperature at afternoon (1:00 p.m.) was by 4.5–6.2 ° C lower than in open soil areas and above the agrocenosis surface. In adjacent rows, maize plants shaded soybean plants in the morning and afternoon; they were less exposed to sunlight and had more favorable conditions for growth and development. The soybean and maize plot with 45 cm row spacing was the most productive. Grain productivity of soybean and maize plants from the whole plot was 2.04 and 4.55 t/ha, respectively, and was maximum. The cost of 1 ton of soybean and maize grain was the lowest at coulisse-strip planting with 45 cm row spacing. When growing soybeans in coulisse-strip planting with row spacing of 30 cm, the cost of production was slightly higher. In case when row width was 70 cm, a cost increased and a profit decreased by 240 and 98 UAH, re-spectively. The profitability of soybean and maize cultivation at coulisse-strip planting with 45 cm row spac-ing was 114 and 128%, respectively. Keywords: maize, soybeans, coulisse-strip planting, sowing method, production costs, cost price, profit, profitability.","PeriodicalId":23071,"journal":{"name":"The Scientific Journal Grain Crops","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84504788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Productivity of spring barley in short-term crop rotation of Left-Bank Forest Steppe depending on the fertilization system","authors":"I. Martyniuk, P. Boiko, Y. Tsymbal","doi":"10.31867/2523-4544/0194","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31867/2523-4544/0194","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzed the research results for 2016–2020 in a long-term stationary experiment, which was established in 2001 on typical chernozems with unstable humidity of the Left Bank Forest-Steppe of Ukraine, namely, on the Panfil research station National Science Center \"Institute of Agriculture NAAS\". The research results convincingly showed that 4-field crop rotations with 100 % saturation with grain crops (peas–winter wheat–maize for grain–spring barley) under different fertilization systems, such as control (without fertilizers), mineral (with the application of N60P60K60), organo-mineral (NPK + by-products of the predecessor), organic (by-products of the predecessor) fertilization systems, are most rational for highly specialized farms the in this area. The grain yield of spring barley, depending on the fertilization system, was in the range of 4.18–5.54 t/ha. Productivity of crop rotation area in a 4-field crop rotation for harvesting spring barley per 1 ha was: grain – 5.50–7.69 tons, fodder units – 7.48–10.47; digestible protein – 0.60–0.84 tons. The economic efficiency of growing spring barley in short-term crop rotation depending on the fertilization systems is: relatively net profit – 14.2–20.7 thousand UAH/ha, profitability – 122.6–197.0 %. Balanced short-term crop rotations with an optimal set and ratio of crops have been studied and introduced into production. Under market conditions, these crop rotations will ensure the production of competitive products and the preservation of soil fertility. Key words: crop rotation, rotation, fertilizers, productivity, yield, grain, fodder units, digestible protein, economic efficiency.","PeriodicalId":23071,"journal":{"name":"The Scientific Journal Grain Crops","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90003953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Peas grain production in the Steppe zone of Ukraine and increasing efficiency by the application of biological products","authors":"S. Lemishko, А. О. Kulyk","doi":"10.31867/2523-4544/0190","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31867/2523-4544/0190","url":null,"abstract":"According to the results of economic analysis, the tendencies of development of grain legume crop production in natural and climatic conditions of the Steppe zone of Ukraine for the period 1990–2020 are established. The place of grain legumes and peas in the structure of sown areas, both in the Steppe zone and Ukraine whole is determined. The dynamics of indicators of harvested areas, yield and gross yield of peas in the Steppe zone for the last five years are analyzed; the reasons of instability of annual gross yield of pea grain and dynamic fluctuations of its productivity are established. The pea grain production efficiency was investigated. Peculiarities of territorial location of pea production in the regions of the Steppe zone of Ukraine were analyzed. According to the economic analysis, the need for measures to improve the efficiency of pea grain production, in particular, the implementation of progressive agricultural measures was established. For chemical load mitigation and ecologization of growing grain legumes crops, it was determined that the primary direction is an application of effective biological products. The article presents the results of the production inspection on compliance of application of biological products and their combinations under the cultivation of peas, which was conducted during 2013–2017 on the areas of the Hryvas farm of Piatykhatky district of Dnipropetrovsk region. The following biological preparations were used: Reacom-C-Beans – for seed incrustation; phosphorus-mobilizing bacteria – for inoculation of sowing material; a three-component mixture of Krystalon, Agat-25K and Aktofit for spraying vegetative pea plants. It was carried out a substantiation of cost standards on production of pea grain, which was grown under the different variants of biological products application, on the basis of process flow diagram of cultivation. According to the results of the production inspection, the most effective variants of biological products application were identified both in terms of productivity and economic efficiency. Key words: peas, production, economic efficiency, biological products, yield, cost, profitability.","PeriodicalId":23071,"journal":{"name":"The Scientific Journal Grain Crops","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79435238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Water consumption by uneven-aged winter wheat plants in arid conditions of the Steppe","authors":"O. Romanenko, I. Kushch, A. Agafonova, Yu. O. Tenyukh, M. Solodushko, N. N. Usova","doi":"10.31867/2523-4544/0187","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31867/2523-4544/0187","url":null,"abstract":"It was established that there are significant changes in hydrothermal indicators over the past thirty years in the south of the Steppe. During the growing seasons of 1963/64–1989/90, the average annual air temperature was 9.6 °С, in 1990/91–2019/20 – 11.3 °C. Average annual precipitation in 1957/58–1989/90 was 456.1 mm, 1990/91–2019/20 – 400.5 mm. Thus, the increase in climate aridity over the last thirty years is obvious: the average annual precipitation has decreased by 55.6 mm, and the average annual air temperature has increased by 1.7 °C. During the growing seasons of 1990/91–2019/20, scientific research found that water consumption by wheat plants after black fallow during the growing season decreased to 2536–2811 m3/ha in the Steppe zone. Moisture was most efficiently consumed by crops at sowing on September 25 (background N40P40K40, seed rate – 4.5 million germinable seeds/ha): total water consumption was 2605 m3/ha, water consumption coefficient – 428 m3/t, grain yield – 6,08 t/ha. According to 28-year-old data, it was found that the available moisture reserves in the 0-10 cm soil layer on black fallow, as the most stable predecessor on water availability of soil, equaled 10.2 mm and ensured almost annual obtainment of full winter wheat seedlings. It was found that the winter wheat plants did not evenly consume moisture during the growing season: in the autumn period – 8.0–19.2 % of the total water consumption, resumption of spring growing season – beginning of stem elongation – 28.3–30.9 %, stem elongation – beginning of heading – 22.1–24.2 %, heading – full ripeness – 30.0–36.9 %. According to the research results, it was proposed the measures to minimize the negative impact of further climate aridity increase by an increase in the autumn-winter precipitation absorption by soil, an improvement of the agrophysical soil properties and its water permeability, the introduction of varieties with a more pronounced xeromorphic structure and an increased level of adaptation to arid conditions of the Steppe zone and resistance to abiotic stress factors. Key words: predecessors, sowing dates, productive moisture reserves in the soil, water consumption, yield, winter wheat, water consumption coefficient.","PeriodicalId":23071,"journal":{"name":"The Scientific Journal Grain Crops","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84776821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improvement of grain quality of winter wheat in the zone of thermal power station influence","authors":"O. Viniukov, L. Konovalenko, O. Bondareva","doi":"10.31867/2523-4544/0186","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31867/2523-4544/0186","url":null,"abstract":"During 2018–2020, we conducted researches in the eastern part of the Northern Steppe of Ukraine, which were aimed to determine the complex influence of winter wheat seed inoculation with biologic poly-myxobacterin and plant treatment with growth stimulants on the accumulation of heavy metals in grain under aerogenic emissions by thermal power station. It was established effectiveness of the biologic polymyxobac-terin and humic plant growth stimulants, which complex action was aimed to decrease the bioaccumulation of heavy metals in the grain of winter wheat cultivated in high man-made load areas. At 2 km distance from the thermal power station (extremely dangerous level of pollution), the copper content in the samples of wheat grain decreased compared to the control variant by 16.9%, the zinc content – by 19.5%. It was identified a significant decrease in the content of the Class 1 dangerous elements: lead – by 34.9%, cadmium – by 33.3. The winter wheat grain yield of Popeliushka variety was 7.9 t/ha, which was by 0.9 t/ha or 12.9% higher compared to the control. The introduction of seed inoculation and plant growth stimulants allow to reduce the pollution risk of grain products at the crop cultivation in industrial regions with a high level of man-made load on agricultural land. The grain grown in 20 km distance from thermal power station (dangerous level of soil pollution) had the less content of heavy metals: copper and zinc – by 15.3%, lead – by 32.3%, cadmium – by 33.3%. The coefficients of biological absorption of chemical elements, which allow to assess the impact of agro-technological measures on the bioaccumulative processes of heavy metals in man-made load areas, decreased by 1.3 times. Key words: winter wheat, technogenic load, biopreparation, growth stimulant, heavy metals, biolog-ical absorption coefficient of heavy metals, yield","PeriodicalId":23071,"journal":{"name":"The Scientific Journal Grain Crops","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86146852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influence of technical and technological indicators on the harvest and post-harvest processing seeds of maize hybrids","authors":"М. Y. Kyrpa, Т. М. Lukianenko","doi":"10.31867/2523-4544/0182","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31867/2523-4544/0182","url":null,"abstract":"The research result of technical and technological indicators, which largely characterize the seed condition and quality and allow to optimize the harvest and post-harvest processing of maize seeds, was pre-sented. The harvest and post-harvest processing of seeds are particularly affected by such indicators as: size, uniformity, level of damage, the content of self-hulled seeds in the total mass. In order to optimize the high-quality seed preparation, it is recommended to use for sowing the coarse seeds with a uniformity of more than 80 %. It was found that a uniformity of 80% or less causes the decrease of field seed germination (A) by 2–6 %, the extension of \"sowing – full sprouts\" period (B) by 6–8 days, and the decrease of index A/B by 32.1–41.0 %. Thus, the low seed uniformity has the negative effect. The indicator of uniformity is controlled by means the seed separation, and it must be at least 81 %. It is not allowed a presence of self-hulled seeds with embryo damage level more than 10 % in the seed material. With a higher content of self-hulled seeds in the total mass, laboratory germination decreases by 5–7 %, field germination – by 10–17 %, growth rate by number of sprouts – by 6–12 %, by sprout weight – by 8.0–11.6 %. To reliably predict the moisture loss rate of seeds at drying, it is proposed to determine the coefficient of the specific seed surface by a ratio of outer surface to volume. We established that an increase in the coefficient of specific surface area from 1.053 to 1.167 mm results to increase the moisture loss rate of seeds by 19.1%, and ears – by 30.9 %. The effectiveness for determination of the seed quality, in particular, its viability was confirmed by the cold test (germination at a temperature of 6–10 ºC). Key words: maize hybrids, technical and technological indicators, seed quality, harvest and post-harvest processing, fraction, cold tes","PeriodicalId":23071,"journal":{"name":"The Scientific Journal Grain Crops","volume":"65 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73590705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic efficiency of nitrogen feedings for winter wheat cultivation in northen Steppe of Ukraine","authors":"O. M. Drumova, I. I. Hasanova, A. Kulyk","doi":"10.31867/2523-4544/0191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31867/2523-4544/0191","url":null,"abstract":"In the northern Steppe of Ukraine at the State Institution Institute of Grain Crops of NAAS for 2016–2019, we studied the influence of plant feeding with different types of nitrogen fertilizers (ammonium nitrate, urea ammonium nitrate mixture (UAN-32), ammonium sulfate) on the economic efficiency of winter wheat cultivation after black fallow and after sunflower. It was established that the lowest cost of one grain ton, the highest net income per hectare and profitability level were in the trial variant where after both predecessors against the background of pre-sowing fertilization (N30P60K30 – after black fallow and N60P60K60 – after sunflower) feeding crops with nitrogen fertilizers was locally applied on two dates: N30 on freeze-thawed soil + N30 at the end of plant tillering stage. The above indicators among the studied varieties of winter wheat, such as Kokhanka (valuable variety), Nyva odeska and Uzhynok (strong varieties), were the best in the Nyva odeska variety, and they achieved at cultivation after black fallow depending on the type of nitrogen fertilizers 2055– 2222 UAH, 28470–30089 UAH per hectare and 200.2–224.6 %, respectively. When growing the same variety after sunflower with nitrogen feedings on two dates, the indicators ranged depending on the fertilizer type: the cost of one grain ton – 2813–2953 UAH, net income – 16802–17821 UAH/ha and profitability level – 125.9–137.1 %. The Uzhynok winter wheat variety after the non-fallow predecessor had the lowest economic indicators and produced lower yield compared to Nyva odeska and Kohanka varieties. It was found that Urea Ammonium Nitrate mixture (UAN-32) fertilizer for nitrogen feedings provided the higher economic cultivation efficiency of all winter wheat varieties, and the more expensive ammonium sulfate had the lower efficiency after both predecessors. Keywords: winter wheat, variety, predecessor, mineral fertilizers, nitrogen feedings, yield, economic efficiency.","PeriodicalId":23071,"journal":{"name":"The Scientific Journal Grain Crops","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74716778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Efficiency of the nitrogen fertilizers for maize root fertilizing","authors":"V. Moldovan, Z. Moldovan","doi":"10.31867/2523-4544/0192","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31867/2523-4544/0192","url":null,"abstract":"We carried out research on the efficiency of maize root fertilizing with nitrogen fertilizers in the critical stage of plant development and presented its results, and clarified its influence on the indicators of individual plant productivity and grain yield. It was found that nitrogen fertilizers caused an extension of the growing season of the early-ripening DN Meotyda hybrid by 4–8 days, and the mid-early DB Khotyn hybrid – by 2–9 days depending on the rate and method of fertilizing. At the same time, maize root fertilizing with nitrogen fertilizers provided an increase in the number of productive ears per hybrid plant: DN Meotyda - by 4.3–13.0%, DB Khotyn - by 2.1–5.3% compared to the control. The grain weight per 1 ear of these hybrids increased by 9.1–28.7 and 11.6–36.6%, and the 1000 grain weight - by 4.6–17.6 and 7.3–21.4%, respectively. The grain yield of hybrid plants in the studied variants on root fertilizing with nitrogen fertilizers increased: DN Meotyda - by 1.24–2.47 t/ha, or 17.1–34.0%, DB Khotyn - by 1.41–2, 65 t/ha, or by 18.8–35.3%. It was observed that the indicators of individual productivity and grain yield in each of the studied maize hybrids were the highest when nitrogen application with a rate of N45 in 3–5th and 7–9th leaf stages. The one-time-application of nitrogen fertilizers of N90 in the 7–9th leaf stages was the least effective. The increase in grain yield of the early-ripening DN Meotyda hybrid compared to the control was 1.24 t/ha, or 17.1%, the mid-early – DB Khotyn –1.41 t/ha, or 18.8%. Root fertilizing maize plants with nitrogen fertilizers in the critical development stages both optimizes their nutrition and reduces unproductive nitrogen losses, but also has a positive effect on growth and development, leaf surface area, individual productivity, and provides a significant increase in grain yield. Key words: maize, hybrids, nitrogen fertilizers, fertilizing, individual productivity, yield.","PeriodicalId":23071,"journal":{"name":"The Scientific Journal Grain Crops","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82645501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sunflower yield forecast using ARIMA time series models","authors":"V. Chaban, S. P. Kliavzo, O. Podobed, S. Chernyh","doi":"10.31867/2523-4544/0185","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31867/2523-4544/0185","url":null,"abstract":"The forecast of sunflower yield was based on the analysis of the time series of yield data of this crop at its cultivation in the Northern Steppes of Ukraine against the background of natural fertility for 1971-2019. The true average yield value of sunflower ranged from 2.15 ± 0.17 t/ha, the average variation of yield data for the study period was: coefficient of variation – Cv = 24 %, standard deviation – s = 0.516 t/ha. Analysis of the scattering graph of the series showed a tendency to increase the sunflower yield over a given period of time. An adequate linear model with an increasing trend of yield data is obtained. According to the forecast results by this method for the period up to 2025, the sunflower yield is expected at the level of 2.59–2.67 t/ha. Forecasting with ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) was carried out by reduction of the yield data series to a stationary form, which was achieved by first order differentiation D (-1). The selection of the most adaptive model was carried out by varying the values of p and q, according to the type of autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF). It was found that the best model is D (-1) ARIMA model: (2,0,0), the stationarity of which was achieved by first order differentiation, the residuals are not autocorrelated and normally distributed, and the regression coefficients corresponded to the values of residual probabilities less (p <0, 05). According to the short-term forecast based on the chosen model, it was found that the maximum of sunflower yield against the background of natural fertility in 2023 should be expected up to 3.56 t/ha. Keywords: forecast, yield, sunflower, model, time series, ARIMA model.","PeriodicalId":23071,"journal":{"name":"The Scientific Journal Grain Crops","volume":"81 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83869603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}