Scientific African最新文献

筛选
英文 中文
Spatiotemporal patterns of socioecological vulnerability in Tigray, Ethiopia: A multi-level analysis of climate and land-use change impacts on agricultural households 埃塞俄比亚提格雷地区社会生态脆弱性时空格局:气候和土地利用变化对农户影响的多层次分析
IF 3.3
Scientific African Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02982
Tadele Tafese Habtie , Ermias Teferi , Fantu Guta
{"title":"Spatiotemporal patterns of socioecological vulnerability in Tigray, Ethiopia: A multi-level analysis of climate and land-use change impacts on agricultural households","authors":"Tadele Tafese Habtie ,&nbsp;Ermias Teferi ,&nbsp;Fantu Guta","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02982","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02982","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia, faces mounting pressures from climate change and land cover alterations. Tigray, a region heavily reliant on agriculture, exemplifies the resulting vulnerabilities. This study investigates the socioecological vulnerability of agricultural households in Tigray, Ethiopia, to the combined pressures of climate and land-use/cover change. Employing a multi-level systemic approach, Principal Component Analysis, and a mixed effects ordered model, the research examines the spatial and temporal patterns of vulnerability and identifies key determinants. The results indicate significant spatial and temporal variations in vulnerability and its components. Ecological vulnerability varied across livelihood zones, with factors such as rainfall variability, the number of households affected by climate change-induced shocks, and deforestation serving as primary drivers, explaining approximately 46.7 % of the total variance. Livelihoods in the eastern Tigray border with Afar were more exposed and had lower ecological adaptive capacity, marking them as ecologically vulnerable hotspots. Similarly, socioecological vulnerability exhibited spatial and temporal variability, with eastern Tigray identified as a hotspot. Livelihood zones in western Tigray were also found to be highly ecologically and socially sensitive. Exposure consistently dominated sociological vulnerability. Socioeconomic factors, including land tenure insecurity, access to resources, and food security status, significantly (p-value &lt;0.01) influenced vulnerability. The findings underscore the need for integrated interventions to address the complex interplay between ecological and social dimensions of vulnerability and build resilience among agricultural communities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article e02982"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145159091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Deterministic nonlinear epidemiological model for COVID-19 infection with double-dose vaccination 双剂量接种下COVID-19感染的确定性非线性流行病学模型
IF 3.3
Scientific African Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02947
Eric Okyere , Baba Seidu , Kwara Nantomah
{"title":"Deterministic nonlinear epidemiological model for COVID-19 infection with double-dose vaccination","authors":"Eric Okyere ,&nbsp;Baba Seidu ,&nbsp;Kwara Nantomah","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02947","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02947","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>COVID-19 remains relevant public health concern, and vaccinations play central role in reducing transmission and severity. While vaccination has been incorporated into several epidemic models, it is often represented as a single-dose process, with explicit modeling of double vaccination receiving limited consideration. Therefore, in this work, we have formulated and analyzed a new SEIR-type dynamic model that incorporates double-dose vaccination with a standard incidence force of infection to examine the spread of COVID-19 disease in Ghana. The proposed dynamic mathematical model, constructed within the framework of deterministic compartmental modeling, is new and different from those previously developed for COVID-19 infection. Analytical results include the derivation of the model equilibria, the basic reproduction number, and conditions for both the local and global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium point. Extensive analytical investigation of bifurcation analysis considered in this study demonstrates that complete vaccine efficacy leads to guaranteed forward bifurcation dynamics. The outcome of the bifurcation analysis is a significant contribution to this study, as it establishes the conditions under which forward or backward bifurcation can occur for the proposed model. Using appropriate data fitting techniques, the mathematical model is fitted to the real reported infected COVID-19 cases in Ghana from March 1, 2021, to May 9, 2023. In addition, we carried out global sensitivity analysis on the basic reproduction number by using the efficient Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) statistical methods. Results from the numerical illustrations indicate that enhanced vaccination efforts in the population decrease the prevalence of COVID-19 infection. The results highlight the need to incorporate the strategy of multi-dose vaccination into nonlinear epidemic models to facilitate sound policy decisions and to increase the preparedness against present and future infectious diseases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article e02947"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Flood vulnerability and risk mapping in Arba minch city using remote sensing, GIS and AHP 基于遥感、GIS和AHP的Arba minch市洪水脆弱性与风险制图
IF 3.3
Scientific African Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02976
Melion Kasahun , Dechasa Diriba , Tesfaye Lemma , Shankar Karuppannan , Niguse Kanko
{"title":"Flood vulnerability and risk mapping in Arba minch city using remote sensing, GIS and AHP","authors":"Melion Kasahun ,&nbsp;Dechasa Diriba ,&nbsp;Tesfaye Lemma ,&nbsp;Shankar Karuppannan ,&nbsp;Niguse Kanko","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02976","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02976","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flooding is a major threat to urban areas, especially in developing countries facing rapid urbanization and weak infrastructure. This study addresses the limited flood risk assessment for Arba Minch City, Ethiopia, a fast-growing city in a flood-prone region. The research used an integrated approach of Remote Sensing, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to map flood hazard and risk zones. Biophysical and socio-environmental factors were weighted using AHP, which identified slope (26.3%) and elevation (23.7%) as the most significant contributors to flood risk. The model's reliability was confirmed with a Consistency Ratio (CR) of 0.042. The resulting flood hazard map shows that, out of the total 32.15 km² area of the city, 63.51% falls within the high and very high hazard categories (41.11% high and 22.40% very high), particularly in low-lying and urbanized areas. A comprehensive risk map was created by combining these hazard zones with socio-economic data. This revealed that, out of the total 32.15 km² area, 40.50% is at high and very high risk (32.16% high and 8.33% very high). The model’s accuracy was validated using historical flood data from 1985-2003 and 26 flood points, yielding an Area Under the Curve (AUC) score of 0.847. The flood risk map highlights the critical interplay between urban expansion, socio-economic vulnerability, and hydrometeorological dynamics, underscoring the need for integrated flood management strategies. These findings provide valuable support for urban planners and disaster managers in developing targeted mitigation strategies to enhance resilience and protect vulnerable communities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article e02976"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Machine learning for air quality forecasting: Insights from five provinces of Rwanda 空气质量预测的机器学习:来自卢旺达五个省的见解
IF 3.3
Scientific African Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02959
Dioumacor Faye , Redouane Lguensat , François Kaly , Andrew Sudmant , Amadou T. Gaye , Egide Kalisa
{"title":"Machine learning for air quality forecasting: Insights from five provinces of Rwanda","authors":"Dioumacor Faye ,&nbsp;Redouane Lguensat ,&nbsp;François Kaly ,&nbsp;Andrew Sudmant ,&nbsp;Amadou T. Gaye ,&nbsp;Egide Kalisa","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02959","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02959","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurately predicting air quality is a crucial challenge for public health and environmental management. This study compares and contrasts machine learning approaches to benchmark best practices for the Rwandan context and to evaluate the added value of advanced statistical methods for air quality monitoring in data-scarce settings. We forecast fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) concentrations across five provinces in Rwanda, using multi-year meteorological and air quality data to identify context-specific patterns. This work establishes a methodological foundation for context-optimized early warning systems and informs policy interventions to improve air quality management in Rwanda. By rigorously testing machine learning capabilities against regional constraints, we demonstrate how machine learning can reduce population exposure to pollution, quantify attribution gaps in under-monitored regions, and improve sustainable environmental governance in resource-limited settings. The results indicate significant seasonal variability, with higher PM<sub>2.5</sub> levels during dry seasons than wet seasons. Our evaluation demonstrates that machine learning models can capture complex, non-linear relationships between environmental variables and pollution trends, although performance varies between algorithms. Limitations remain, including the integration of real-time data streams and localized variables such as industrial emissions, road traffic, and agricultural practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article e02959"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Socioeconomic and environmental determinants of child malnutrition in Burkina Faso 布基纳法索儿童营养不良的社会经济和环境决定因素
IF 3.3
Scientific African Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02895
Alassane Soma , Pyrrus C. 1er Yehouenou , Mintodê Nicodème Atchadé , Windpanga Aristide Ouédraogo , Karim Traoré
{"title":"Socioeconomic and environmental determinants of child malnutrition in Burkina Faso","authors":"Alassane Soma ,&nbsp;Pyrrus C. 1er Yehouenou ,&nbsp;Mintodê Nicodème Atchadé ,&nbsp;Windpanga Aristide Ouédraogo ,&nbsp;Karim Traoré","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02895","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02895","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Child malnutrition remains a critical public health challenge in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Burkina Faso, where persistent socioeconomic and environmental disparities worsen its prevalence. Despite numerous interventions, malnutrition rates remain stubbornly high, especially in rural communities. This study aims to identify the key determinants of child malnutrition by examining household socioeconomic conditions and environmental factors using data from the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). A cross-sectional analytical design was applied, drawing on data collected from 2,463 households in 2022. Logistic regression models, including both simple and mixed-effects specifications, were tested to assess the influence of factors such as main income source, water supply, toilet type, electricity access, and presence of a protected garden on the nutritional status of children under five. The final retained model was the simple logistic regression, selected for its parsimony and interpretability. The analysis identified key risk factors including rural residence, dependence on agriculture, absence of a protected garden, and use of torches for lighting. Interestingly, some non-conventional sanitation practices and use of alternative water sources were associated with lower odds of malnutrition. The model was statistically significant (<span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mo>&lt;</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>001</mn></mrow></math></span>) with an AIC of 3075.028 and a pseudo<span><math><mrow><mo>−</mo><msup><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span> of 0.065. These findings highlight the potential of improving water infrastructure, strengthening agricultural resilience, promoting household gardens, and expanding educational opportunities as pathways to reduce child malnutrition. Future research should integrate longitudinal and spatial analyses to better capture dynamic and contextual drivers of nutritional outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article e02895"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Power-saving queueing model of a wireless sensor node operating in two modes subject to random occurrences of sleep orders 随机睡眠顺序下两种模式下无线传感器节点的省电排队模型
IF 3.3
Scientific African Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02962
C.T. Dora Pravina , S. Udayabaskaran , P. Kamala , Joshua Kiddy K. Asamoah
{"title":"Power-saving queueing model of a wireless sensor node operating in two modes subject to random occurrences of sleep orders","authors":"C.T. Dora Pravina ,&nbsp;S. Udayabaskaran ,&nbsp;P. Kamala ,&nbsp;Joshua Kiddy K. Asamoah","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02962","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02962","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyzes the pursuance of a wireless sensor node that works in two modes: fast and slow. The node is also subject to random occurrences of sleep orders from the base station. The service rate in the slow phase is less than in fast mode. Customers arrive at the node only when the server is in fast mode. In fast or slow mode, the available customers in the server are served on a first-come, first-served discipline. If no further customers are present for service, the server immediately enters sleep mode and resides in it for a random time. All arriving customers are lost during the sleep mode. At the end of sleep mode, the server moves immediately to fast mode to serve the arriving customers. The server in fast mode becomes sick randomly, and the sick server immediately switches to slow mode and available customers are served. The sensor node experiences random occurrences of sleep orders in slow mode only, and at the occurrence of a sleep order, all customers are washed out, and the sensor moves to sleep mode. Steady-state probabilities for system size and some system performance measures are explicitly obtained. A numerical illustration of the impact of sleep orders on system performance is provided.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article e02962"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Profiling the gut microbiome of Pacific Whiteleg shrimp, Litopeneaus vannamei raised in an indoor biofloc aquaculture system 在室内生物群落养殖系统中饲养的凡纳滨对虾肠道菌群分析
IF 3.3
Scientific African Pub Date : 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02971
Edward Terhemen Akange , Victor Tosin Okomoda , Tivfa Samuel Gbaior , Femi Pius Asuwaju , Nor Azman Kasan
{"title":"Profiling the gut microbiome of Pacific Whiteleg shrimp, Litopeneaus vannamei raised in an indoor biofloc aquaculture system","authors":"Edward Terhemen Akange ,&nbsp;Victor Tosin Okomoda ,&nbsp;Tivfa Samuel Gbaior ,&nbsp;Femi Pius Asuwaju ,&nbsp;Nor Azman Kasan","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02971","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02971","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the microbial composition and functionality within the gut system of cultured organisms provide crucial information about nutrient utilisation and immunity potentials. This study investigated the gut microbiome of <em>Litopenaeus vannamei</em> cultured in an indoor biofloc aquaculture system. The research aimed to evaluate the influence of biofloc treatments on microbial diversity and abundance within shrimp guts essential for their defence system. Shrimp were raised under three treatment conditions namely, a control (non-biofloc) and two biofloc setups. The biofloc treatment comprised GRG1 (200 shrimp/m³, C/N ratio of 10, probiotic dosage 14 ml/L) and GRG2 (200 shrimp/m³, C/N ratio of 20, probiotic dosage 7 ml/L). Ten gut samples of shrimp from each group were analysed using 16S rRNA gene sequencing to characterize the microbial communities. Biofloc-treated groups, particularly GRG2, showed substantially higher abundances of beneficial microbes, such as <em>Fusobacteriaceae</em> and <em>Peptostreptococcaceae</em>. The microbial family <em>Fusobacteriaceae</em> reached a relative abundance of 0.79 in GRG2 and 0.32 in GRG1, compared to 0.03 in the control group. Also, the presence of Bacteroidetes and Photobacterium further indicated a favourable microbial shift in biofloc treatments. It was concluded that biofloc positively influenced the gut microbiome by enhancing microbial diversity and promoting beneficial microbial populations that could improve the shrimp health and aquaculture productivity. These findings underscore the potential of biofloc to enhance digestive efficiency and immune function in shrimp.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article e02971"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An attention-guided hybrid statistical and deep learning modeling for enhanced time series forecasting: A case study of South African telecommunication companies 用于增强时间序列预测的注意力引导混合统计和深度学习模型:南非电信公司的案例研究
IF 3.3
Scientific African Pub Date : 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02950
Wandile Nhlapho , Marcellin Atemkeng , Jean-Claude Ndogmo
{"title":"An attention-guided hybrid statistical and deep learning modeling for enhanced time series forecasting: A case study of South African telecommunication companies","authors":"Wandile Nhlapho ,&nbsp;Marcellin Atemkeng ,&nbsp;Jean-Claude Ndogmo","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02950","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02950","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate stock volatility forecasting is critical for informed investment decisions and effective risk management. This study proposes an attention-guided hybrid modeling framework that integrates Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to improve volatility prediction for South African telecommunication companies (MTN SA, Telkom SA, and Vodacom SA). While GARCH-based models capture volatility clustering and asymmetries and LSTMs learn non-linear dependencies, each method on its own has limitations. We therefore develop GARCH-LSTM and EGARCH-LSTM hybrids enhanced with attention mechanisms that dynamically weight time-series features. The models are trained on one year of stock price data (July 2023–July 2024), incorporating technical indicators such as Simple Moving Average (SMA), Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and Relative Strength Index (RSI) to enrich the feature sets. Using an 80/20 train–test split and rolling window validation, performance is evaluated via Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The attention-enhanced EGARCH-LSTM achieves the lowest MAE values: 0.0780 (MTN), 0.0901 (Telkom), and 0.0905 (Vodacom). For RMSE, the lowest errors are model-specific: LSTM-Attn performs best for MTN (0.1036), GARCH-LSTM (without attention) for Telkom (0.1190), and EGARCH-LSTM-Attn for Vodacom (0.1259). These models reduce forecasting errors by up to 4.84% in MAE and 3.67% in RMSE compared to non-attention counterparts. Volatility projections show Telkom exhibits the most significant upward volatility trend rising from 2.66 to 2.99 (GARCH) and from 0.0249 to 0.0306 (EGARCH) over 10 days, while MTN and Vodacom remain more stable. Correlation analysis confirms that attention-based models provide more consistent forecasts across stocks. These findings suggest that combining econometric volatility models with deep learning (DL) and attention mechanisms yields a robust forecasting strategy, particularly well-suited for volatile emerging markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article e02950"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modeling third trimester gestational age using transcerebellar diameter and fetal kidney length: A comparative statistical evaluation 利用经小脑直径和胎儿肾脏长度建模妊娠晚期胎龄:比较统计评价
IF 3.3
Scientific African Pub Date : 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02944
Asimi Ajani Amalare , Matthew Iwada Ekum , Adeyinka Soloman Ogunsanya
{"title":"Modeling third trimester gestational age using transcerebellar diameter and fetal kidney length: A comparative statistical evaluation","authors":"Asimi Ajani Amalare ,&nbsp;Matthew Iwada Ekum ,&nbsp;Adeyinka Soloman Ogunsanya","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02944","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02944","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate estimation of gestational age (GA) in the third trimester remains a clinical challenge, particularly in low-resource settings where early ultrasound dating or reliable menstrual history may be unavailable. This study evaluates the predictive validity of the transcerebellar diameter (TCD) and the length of the fetal kidney (FKL) to estimate the third-trimester GA within a Nigerian cohort, to improve diagnostic precision using alternative biometric parameters. Data from 239 singleton pregnancies were collected prospectively from two tertiary hospitals in Lagos, Nigeria. Pearson’s correlation, linear regression, polynomial regression of degree 2 and generalized additive models (GAM) were employed to examine the relationship between TCD, FKL and clinically assigned GA. Six models were developed, individual and combined, for TCD and FKL, and their performance was compared. The agreement between predicted and clinical GA was assessed using the Welch t-test. Both TCD and FKL showed strong correlations with GA (<span><math><mrow><mi>r</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>7315</mn></mrow></math></span> and <span><math><mrow><mi>r</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>7317</mn></mrow></math></span>; <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mo>&lt;</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>001</mn></mrow></math></span>), with GAM outperforming other models in predictive precision. No significant differences were observed between the clinical and predicted GA for all models (<span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mo>&gt;</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>05</mn></mrow></math></span>). These findings suggest that both TCD and FKL are reliable in estimating GA in the third trimester, and GAM offers greater flexibility. The study supports the integration of these parameters into clinical protocols, especially for pregnancies with missed early ultrasounds or uncertain dates, and highlights their relevance in improving maternal-fetal care in sub-Saharan Africa.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article e02944"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A note on the solution to a 1D advection–diffusion equation with exponentially decaying inlet boundary condition 入口边界条件指数衰减的一维平流扩散方程解的注记
IF 3.3
Scientific African Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02956
Joseph K. Ansong, Ferdinard Obeng-Forson, Vincent T. Teyekpiti
{"title":"A note on the solution to a 1D advection–diffusion equation with exponentially decaying inlet boundary condition","authors":"Joseph K. Ansong,&nbsp;Ferdinard Obeng-Forson,&nbsp;Vincent T. Teyekpiti","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02956","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02956","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An analytical solution is presented for a one-dimensional advection–diffusion equation (ADE) with an exponentially decaying inlet boundary condition and a non-zero gradient at the outlet. The solution is derived using the Laplace transform method, and a numerical solution is obtained through an explicit finite difference scheme for comparison. The numerical results show good agreement with the analytical solution. Additionally, this work corrects an error in a previously published analytical solution (van Genuchten and Alves, 1982), which applied a zero-gradient condition at the outlet.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article e02956"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145047645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
相关产品
×
本文献相关产品
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术官方微信