Scientific African最新文献

{"title":"Marketed surplus of head cabbage in Northwest Ethiopia: Evidence from an instrumental variable regression analysis","authors":"Abera Ayalew,&nbsp;Yohannes Girma","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03236","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03236","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Head cabbage plays a vital role in supporting household livelihoods in Ethiopia. This study aimed to examine the main factors affecting the marketed surplus of head cabbage, along with the production and marketing challenges faced by producers, and available opportunities. A multistage sampling procedure was used, starting with the purposive selection of four major cabbage producing districts, followed by the random selection of 364 producers from eight kebeles. Data analysis was carried out in STATA 17 using linear and instrumental variable regression methods. Due to suspect of endogeneity problem, human labor, seed, horse labor, distance to development center, and credit access were taken as instrumental variables and determinants of marketed surplus were assessed through 2SLS estimation. The 2SLS results revealed that total production, cooperative membership, farming experience, family size, access to market information, and participation in off/non-farm activities significantly influenced the marketed surplus of head cabbage. Favorable agroecological conditions, irrigation access, high market demand, and the presence of multipurpose cooperatives were identified as key opportunities supporting production and marketing of cabbage. Conversely, weak market linkages, pest and disease problems, seasonal production patterns, and limited risk management options were major constraints. Therefore, strengthening cooperatives, advisory services, and market linkages is crucial to promote sustainable head cabbage production and the marketed surplus.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e03236"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146188188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Item Response Theory for trait assessment in randomized item pool for computer based test","authors":"Rhydal Esi Eghan,&nbsp;Edward Osei-Sarpong,&nbsp;Gaston Edem Awashie,&nbsp;Reindorf Nartey Borkor,&nbsp;Evans Yaokumah,&nbsp;Aditta Abigail N’ganomah","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03226","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03226","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid adoption of computer-based examinations (CBE) has raised concerns regarding fairness and reliability in assessing student performance. This study examines randomized test item fairness to test takers’ traits in CBE through the application of Item Response Theory (IRT), with a focus on the two-parameter logistic (2PL) model. Data were collected from 500 level 100 undergraduate students who responded to ten Algebra test items. Raw scores were dichotomized into binary outcomes and analyzed to estimate each item’s difficulty level <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>b</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span>, item’s discrimination power <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>a</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span>, student ability (latent trait) <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>θ</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> and overall test performance. The estimated item discrimination parameter ranged from 0.87 to 2.14, while the item difficulty parameter estimate ranged from 0.26 to 1.91. These estimates indicated moderate to strong discriminatory power across most test items and its effectiveness between low and high ability examinees, as well as a balanced mix of less difficult, moderately difficult, and highly difficult items, respectively. The test-level analyses using the Test Characteristic Curve (TCC) and Test Information Curve (TIC) showed that the test was most reliable for candidates with average ability levels, clustered at latent traits of <span><math><mrow><mn>0</mn><mo>≤</mo><mi>θ</mi><mo>≤</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></math></span>. The item-fit metric evaluation utilizing the S-<span><math><msup><mrow><mi>X</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup></math></span> statistic ranging from 1.182 to 5.304, with corresponding p-values between 0.505 and 0.978 above the chosen significance level (<span><math><mrow><mi>α</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>05</mn></mrow></math></span>), and RMSEA values close to 0.000 highlighted eight out of the ten items within the acceptable model fit criteria. This implied that although the majority of examinees receive fair and reliable measurements from the randomized test, some items may need to be revised in order to increase measurement accuracy and equity. The study shows how IRT may be used practically for trait assessment and test item fairness evaluation in computer-based exams.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e03226"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146188259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rural residents' climate change perception and its influence on climate-smart business adoption using technology acceptance model: A study in Lahijan County, Iran","authors":"Ali Akbar Barati,&nbsp;Hossein Shabanali Fami,&nbsp;Seyed Erfan Hosseini,&nbsp;Mohadeshe Aliakbari","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03256","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03256","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rural areas heavily rely on natural resources. This makes their residents and businesses vulnerable to the climate change and its impacts. Addressing these challenges requires reducing harmful climate effects, promoting adaptation, and improving rural-environmental relationships for sustainable development. This study aims to explore how rural residents perceive climate change influence their adoption of climate-smart rural businesses in northern Iran. Data were collected using a questionnaire from a sample include 175 rural residents selected from a population of 23,668. The partial least squares modeling method was employed to data analysis. Results showed that tangible natural impacts, such as rising soil salinity and poorer groundwater quality, most strongly shaped villagers’ perceptions of climate change. However, residents exhibited low trust in climate-smart rural businesses as effective solutions, indicating a confidence gap. Attitudes toward climate-smart rural businesses as the most important factor affecting adoption intention. The study highlights the need for policies that address trust gaps, enhance perceived usefulness and ease of climate-smart rural businesses to shift attitudes toward climate-smart rural businesses, and resolve urgent environmental challenges. It seems, integrating local perspectives with ecological and social realities is vital to align rural livelihoods with sustainability goals and ensure effective climate adaptation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e03256"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147395182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Kinetics, isotherm, thermodynamics, and DFT studies for the simultaneous adsorption of two anionic dyes using MgAl layered double hydroxide","authors":"Chaymae Hmimen ,&nbsp;Alae Elabed ,&nbsp;Mohamed Amine Djebbi ,&nbsp;Abdesslem Ben Haj Amara ,&nbsp;Saad Ibnsouda Koraichi ,&nbsp;Soumya Elabed","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03248","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03248","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Efficient removal of synthetic dyes from wastewater is crucial to mitigate their environmental impact. In this study, MgAl-layered double hydroxides (MgAl LDHs) with Mg²⁺:Al³⁺ ratios of 2:1, 3:1, and 4:1 and two interlayer anions (Cl⁻ and CO₃²⁻) were synthesized by co-precipitation and characterized by XRD, FTIR, BET, SEM, and TEM. Batch adsorption experiments optimized key variables, with best performance at pH 5, 120 min contact time, and 0.02 g adsorbent dosage. The Mg₃Al–Cl sample showed the highest capacities–even when both dyes were present and interfering with each other–reaching 166.62 mg·g⁻¹ for methyl orange (MO) and 123.35 mg·g⁻¹ for congo red (CR). Kinetic data were best described by the pseudo-second-order model, and isotherms fitted the Langmuir equation. Thermodynamic parameters indicated a feasible, spontaneous, and endothermic process. The interlayer anion critically affected performance: chloride-intercalated LDHs outperformed carbonate-intercalated ones under identical conditions, consistent with differences in anion exchange and interaction strength with the galleries. The material retained &gt;80 % capacity after five regeneration cycles. Density functional theory (DFT) supported the experiments, showing adsorption governed by electrostatic attraction, hydrogen bonding, surface complexation, and n–π stacking, and clarifying how both the Mg²⁺:Al³⁺ ratio and the interlayer anion identity tune adsorption efficiency. The originality of this work lies in a combined experimental–DFT framework that co-optimizes cation ratio and interlayer anion to predict and enhance simultaneous removal of multiple anionic dyes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e03248"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147395291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling urban expansions and its environmental effects in Arba Minch City, Southern Ethiopia using GIS, remote sensing, and Shannon entropy","authors":"Betelhem Zemenu ,&nbsp;Ephrem Getahun ,&nbsp;Sisay Alemayehu ,&nbsp;Muralitharan Jothimani","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03251","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03251","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid urban expansion in developing countries has intensified land use and land cover (LULC) changes, resulting in significant environmental impacts that challenge sustainable urban development. Although Arba Minch City is one of the fastest-growing urban centers in southern Ethiopia, comprehensive studies integrating advanced geospatial techniques and quantitative models to assess urban expansion patterns and their environmental implications remain limited. This study analyzed urban expansion in Arba Minch, southern Ethiopia, between 2013 and 2023 using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, and the Shannon entropy model. The supervised classification, utilizing the maximum likelihood algorithm on Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS imagery, achieved high overall accuracies of 93% in 2013 and 94% in 2023. Additionally, Kappa coefficients of 0.91 for both years indicate a strong level of classification reliability. LULC change analysis revealed a notable increase in built-up areas by 1262.34 hectares, primarily at the expense of vegetation (-929.34 ha) and bare land (-359.19 ha). During 2013–2023, vegetation indices (NDVI) declined from an average of 0.31 to 0.2, while built-up index (NDBI) values increased from a mean of -0.17 to -0.09. Land Surface Temperature (LST) rose from 18.7 °C - 35.6 °C in 2013 to 19.6 °C - 44.0 °C in 2023, reflecting intensification of the urban heat island effect. The Shannon entropy analysis indicates dispersed patterns of urban growth, particularly toward the northwest (NW) and northeast (NE) directions. Furthermore, the urban expansion intensity index (UEII) uncovered a high level of urban growth intensity (UEII=1.64). The findings indicate substantial spatio-temporal changes in LULC and urban growth during 2013–2023. The study concludes that rapid and dispersed urban growth in Arba Minch City has led to considerable environmental degradation. It recommends the implementation of sustainable urban planning strategies, protection of remaining vegetation, and integration of geospatial tools into urban management policies to balance future urban development with environmental conservation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e03251"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147395299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Targeting detoxification pathways: Larvicidal and GST-Inhibitory potentials of essential oils in Culex pipiens","authors":"Ashwaq M. Al-Nazawi ,&nbsp;Mohamed A.M. Shahat ,&nbsp;Ahmed H. Abdelwahab ,&nbsp;Hatoon A. Niyazi ,&nbsp;Hanouf A. Niyazi ,&nbsp;Ahmed S. Hashem","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03154","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03154","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The mosquito <em>Culex pipiens</em> L. (Diptera: Culicidae) is the principal and most widespread vector of the West Nile virus worldwide. Conventional mosquito control heavily relies on synthetic insecticides, which, despite their effectiveness, contribute to resistance development and pose risks to ecosystems. Resistance is frequently associated with target-site mutations and enhanced detoxification mediated by enzymes such as glutathione S-transferases (GSTs). Essential oils (EOs) from clove (<em>Syzygium aromaticum</em> L.), marjoram (<em>Origanum majorana</em> L.), and cinnamon (<em>Cinnamomum zeylanicum</em> L.) represent promising eco-friendly alternatives for mosquito management. This study investigated their larvicidal potential with particular emphasis on GST inhibition in <em>C. pipiens</em>. Molecular docking revealed that limonene, a major EO constituent, exhibited the strongest binding affinity to GST (ΔG = –6.3 ± 0.2 kcal/mol), surpassing the standard inhibitor diethyl maleate. Biochemical assays confirmed significant GST inhibition, while ADMET predictions indicated favorable pharmacokinetic profiles for limonene alongside certain toxicity alerts. These results suggest that EO-derived compounds act through a dual mechanism—direct larvicidal toxicity and disruption of detoxification pathways. Beyond laboratory efficacy, the findings underscore the potential ecological advantages of EOs, including their rapid environmental degradation and reduced risk of bioaccumulation, though further validation under field conditions and non-target safety assessments remains essential. Collectively, this integrative study highlights the potential of clove, marjoram, and cinnamon EOs as sustainable, safer alternatives to synthetic larvicides in mosquito control programs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e03154"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145976858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Phytochemical characterization and nephroprotective potential of Euphorbia echinus: antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and anti-apoptotic effects in acute kidney injury","authors":"Nihad Sahri ,&nbsp;Noura A Hassan ,&nbsp;Nadia Hassan ,&nbsp;Mona F Mahmoud ,&nbsp;Ahmet Buğra Ortaakarsu ,&nbsp;Abdellah Ezzanad ,&nbsp;Asmae Alaoui ,&nbsp;Elhassania Elherradi ,&nbsp;Mansour Sobeh","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03166","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03166","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a major clinical problem associated with high morbidity and mortality, and current treatment options remain limited. Herine, phytochemical characterization, computational analyses, and the nephroprotective effects of the aqueous extract of <em>Euphorbia echinus</em> aerial parts were investigated, and the underlying mechanisms were explored. The phytochemical components were identified employing LC-MS/MS, and their antioxidant potential was evaluated using the DPPH radical scavenging assay, while <em>in vivo</em> nephroprotection was evaluated using the glycerol-induced AKI model. Rats were given 200 or 400 mg/kg of the extract, and kidney function was assessed based on serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen, urinary albumin, urinary creatinine, and the albumin/creatinine ratio. Biomarkers of oxidative stress (GSH, catalase), inflammation (IL-1β), and apoptosis (Bcl-2) were also quantified. Molecular docking, molecular dynamics simulations, and deep learning-based affinity prediction (Boltz-2) were used to determine the interactions of the identified phytoconstituents with caspase-1. LC-MS/MS analysis identified 76 phytocomponents, predominantly flavonoids, phenolic acids, and daphnane-type diterpenoids. The extract demonstrated marked antioxidant capacity, as indicated by a DPPH IC₅₀ of 17.15 μg/mL, and its administration significantly restored renal function while attenuating oxidative stress, inflammatory cytokine production, and apoptotic signaling in a dose-dependent manner. Consistent computational analyses revealed resiniferatoxin and eupatorin as strong and stable caspase-1 binders. The findings of this study demonstrate the relevance of <em>E. echinus</em> phytoconstituents as promising candidates for AKI management and encourage plant-derived therapies against inflammasome-associated pathways.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e03166"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145976856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Novel high-precision explicit equations for pipe diameter in turbulent flow via modified rough model method (MRMM)","authors":"Imene Foual ,&nbsp;Lotfi Zeghadnia ,&nbsp;Giuseppe Oliveto ,&nbsp;Fares Laouacheria ,&nbsp;Kaan Yetilmezsoy","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03107","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e03107","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study addresses key hydraulic engineering challenges in turbulent pipe flow - computing flow rate (Q), hydraulic energy slope <span><math><msub><mi>S</mi><mi>f</mi></msub></math></span>, and pipe diameter (D) - by introducing the Modified Rough Model Method (MRMM). We propose novel, high-precision explicit equations for D (Eqs. 56 and 60). These achieve maximum relative errors of 0.017 % and 0.0086 %, respectively. We also introduce an innovative friction factor equation (54) with 0.086 % error. Validated across the entire Moody diagram (<span><math><mrow><mrow><mi>ε</mi></mrow><mo>/</mo><mi>D</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0</mn><mrow><mspace></mspace><mtext>to</mtext></mrow><mspace></mspace><mn>0.05</mn></mrow></math></span>, and <span><math><mrow><mn>2300</mn><mo>≤</mo><mi>R</mi><mo>≤</mo><msup><mrow><mn>10</mn></mrow><mn>8</mn></msup></mrow></math></span>) using a brute-force approach with over 7 million data points, these non-iterative solutions outperform existing models. A comprehensive set of statistical metrics including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), correlation coefficients (R² and Pearson's R), Bias, Mean Relative Error (MRE), Standard Deviation (SD), Coefficient of Variation (CV), and maximum relative error were employed to assess the accuracy and reliability of the proposed and existing formulas; the results of the Statistical metrics confirm their robustness, establishing a new benchmark for accuracy in pipeline design. This advancement enhances efficiency and reliability in water, oil, and gas transport systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e03107"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unveiling the cardiovascular mechanisms of Dittrichia viscosa (L.) Greuter: from folk remedies to experimental evidence","authors":"Mourad Akdad ,&nbsp;Ridwane Ghanimi ,&nbsp;Walid El mjiyad ,&nbsp;Abdelfattah EL Moussaoui ,&nbsp;Toufik Bouddine ,&nbsp;Mohamed Ajebli ,&nbsp;Ismail Bouadid ,&nbsp;Mohammed Al-zharani ,&nbsp;Fahd A. Nasr ,&nbsp;Ashraf Ahmed Qurtam ,&nbsp;Mohamed bouhrim ,&nbsp;Mohamed Eddouks","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03243","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03243","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The objective of this research was to evaluate the possible blood pressure-lowering activity of the aqueous extract from the aerial parts of <em>Dittrichia viscosa</em> (L.) (AEDV) in rats with induced hypertension. This research investigated the short- and long-term effects of AEDV administration on hemodynamic parameters, including systolic (SBP), mean (MBP), and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), as well as heart rate (HR), in both normotensive and <span>l</span>-NAME–induced hypertensive rats. Moreover, the vasodilatory activity of AEDV was examined in isolated rat aortic rings with an intact endothelium, which had been preconstricted with epinephrine (EP). To further elucidate the mechanisms underlying this vascular relaxation, five specific pharmacological antagonists and inhibitors were employed. The findings revealed that daily oral administration of AEDV at doses of 100 or 200 mg/kg produced a significant reduction in systolic blood pressure (SBP) in hypertensive rats, without inducing any notable alteration in HR. In addition, AEDV at concentrations ranging from 0.05 to 0.25 mg/mL exhibited a dose-dependent vasodilatory response in thoracic aortic rings precontracted with EP (10 µM). This relaxant effect was attenuated in the presence of indomethacin, suggesting that prostacyclin-dependent mechanisms may be involved in mediating the vascular relaxation induced by AEDV. Overall, these findings suggest that <em>D. viscosa</em> has potential as a natural antihypertensive agent, and further research may be warranted to explore its therapeutic potential.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e03243"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147395184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The unintended consequence of COVID-19 containment measures in Africa: A double machine learning perspective","authors":"Christian S. Otchia","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03273","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03273","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how COVID-19 containment measures affected multidimensional welfare across seven sub-Saharan African countries. We collected novel survey data from 840 respondents and applied Double Machine Learning (DML) with dual treatments to identify causal effects while addressing confounding and selection bias. Stay-home orders reduced quality of life by 0.184 to 0.489 standard deviations. These effects operated through increased financial difficulties (0.074 SD) and social disruption (0.095 SD). Curfews generated smaller effects, primarily affecting mental health (0.066 SD). Tanzania experienced improved quality of life (0.374 SD) under limited restrictions, while Zimbabwe faced severe negative impacts (-0.489 SD). These contrasts reveal that institutional capacity critically moderates policy effects. Neither intervention significantly affected insecurity or violence. Our findings demonstrate that containment measures impose substantial, persistent welfare costs 24–30 months post-implementation, with effects varying dramatically by policy design and institutional context. Our results advance pandemic policy evaluation by providing the first rigorous causal evidence across multiple African countries using machine learning methods. They reveal that optimal policy design requires context-specific approaches rather than uniform strategies. These insights inform pandemic preparedness and social protection design in developing economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e03273"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147395183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}