A mathematical model of malaria transmission in conflict-affected regions and the implications on malaria interventions

Abstract

Malaria remains a life-threatening disease that is endemic to many African countries. Currently, several malaria-endemic areas are also experiencing armed conflicts, exacerbating the challenges of disease control. In this study, we develop a compartmental mathematical model to study malaria transmission in conflict-affected regions, incorporating both malaria control interventions and the effects of armed conflicts. We analyse the model by examining the positivity of solutions, the feasible region, equilibrium points and their stability, and the basic reproduction number, $R_0$. Our findings indicate that the model exhibits a forward bifurcation, implying that malaria transmission can be eliminated when $R_0<1$ but persists and spreads when $R_0>1$. Through sensitivity analysis, we show that increasing malaria control interventions effectively reduce $R_0$, whereas conflict-related parameters contribute to its rise. Additionally, we fit the model to World Health Organisation (WHO) data from three malaria-endemic countries, and we found a Root Mean Square Error between the data and model outcome with values 0.0015 for Nigeria, 0.0055 for Sudan, and 0.0016 for DRC. The simulations highlight the impact of intensified malaria control efforts and the detrimental influence of armed conflict on malaria transmission dynamics. The sensitivity analysis results align with numerical findings, reinforcing the significance of intervention strategies. Furthermore, our study underscores the role of asymptomatic carriers in sustaining malaria transmission. The results of this paper have huge implications in providing recommendations on malaria control in conflict-affected areas, emphasising the need for strengthened control measures and targeted interventions despite the conflicts.