{"title":"Modeling breast cancer dynamics with fractional derivatives: Immunotherapy and circuit-based analysis","authors":"Chandrali Baishya , R.N. Premakumari , J.R. Asharani , Ebenezer Bonyah","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02842","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02842","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Significant progress has been achieved in advancing theoretical, experimental, and clinical approaches to investigate the biomechanics of immune and tumor cells. Cytotoxic T lymphocytes are a key component of the immune cells’ anti-tumor mechanisms. Mathematical modeling of tumor progression, particularly through the Caputo fractional derivative (CFD), can enhance the analytical observation and understanding of clinical phenomena. This study establishes a three-dimensional mathematical model to elucidate the interplay between cancer cells and the immune system, specifically in the context of Chimeric Antigen Receptors (CAR) T-cell therapy, an immunotherapy type. The utilization of the CFD adds precision to the modeling process. The proposed model provides an integrated framework to explore the intricate nature of tumor development, especially addressing clinical inquiries that may not always be conducive to experimental methods. To bridge theoretical modeling with practical applications, an electronic circuit implementation of the proposed system is developed. Dynamical aspects, such as the existence and uniqueness of the solution, equilibrium points, and their stability, are thoroughly analyzed. Numerical simulations are performed using parameter values estimated from experimental data to rigorously validate the theoretical model. The simulation results offer detailed insights into the nonlinear dynamics governing tumor progression and immune response modulation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article e02842"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144725110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Behaviourally adaptive optimization strategy for retirement wealth allocation under uncertainty","authors":"Samuel Essamuah Assabil , Ali Abubakar","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02873","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02873","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Optimal wealth allocation is essential for financial stability during retirement-a period marked by trade-offs among consumption, investment risk, life insurance, and bequest motives. Traditional static models often fail to capture the dynamic interplay among market volatility, income uncertainty, and behavioural tendencies such as loss aversion and panic selling. This study develops a dynamic, behaviourally adaptive optimisation framework for retirement planning under uncertainty. The problem is formulated as a dynamic stochastic multi-objective optimisation problem, wherein the investor seeks to maximise expected utility from consumption and bequest, subject to financial constraints and individual risk preferences. Wealth evolution is governed by recursive Bellman equations and solved using Monte Carlo dynamic programming, which captures non-linearities, volatility clustering, labour income shocks, and fat-tailed asset return distributions. The framework is validated through simulations of a hypothetical 40-year-old male investor with an initial wealth of $500,000 and an annual income of $100,000 over a 20-year horizon. The portfolio comprises stocks, bonds, real estate, gold, and commodities, each with empirically derived return-volatility profiles. Market uncertainty is modelled using a fat-tailed t-distribution with five degrees of freedom, and 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to generate plausible market paths. Behavioural responses are modelled as a stochastic risk-aversion process influenced by recent financial experiences. Key downside risk measures, including the 5 % Value at Risk and Conditional Tail Expectation, are computed to assess portfolio resilience. The results indicate that the adaptive model outperforms static strategies by preserving wealth, absorbing employment shocks, and supporting long-term financial and bequest objectives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article e02873"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144757060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mohammed Elgarhy , Gaber Sallam Salem Abdalla , Okechukwu J. Obulezi , Ehab M. Almetwally
{"title":"A tangent DUS family of distributions with applications to the Weibull model","authors":"Mohammed Elgarhy , Gaber Sallam Salem Abdalla , Okechukwu J. Obulezi , Ehab M. Almetwally","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02843","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02843","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study introduces a new trigonometric-based family of distribution by superimposing the Dinesh–Umesh–Sanjay (DUS) transformer in the tangent family of distributions. The resulting family is named Tangent DUS and this new family was utilized to provide a more flexible Weibull (TDUSW) distribution having the same two parameters (parsimony) as the classical Weibull distribution. The parameters were estimated using both non-Bayesian and Bayesian procedures. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulation study was implemented to determine the behavior of the estimators in the presence of small and large sample sizes. To demonstrate the usability of the model, four datasets namely; the tensile strength of carbon fibers, total factor productivity (TFP) which represent agricultural production growth for thirty-seven African countries from 2001–2010, BTC-USD total weekly amount traded (volume) from June 11, 2021 to June 11, 2024, and HIV/AIDS mortality rate in Germany from year 2000 to 2020 were utilized with the proposed TDUSW distribution having largest p-values as 0.9007, 0.9856, 0.7264 and 0.9832 respectively. In the first two datasets, the TDUSW also has the least values of the metrics of model performance namely AIC, CAIC, BIC and HQIC and also competes favorably in the remaining two datasets. These results show that the proposed TDUSW distribution is superior and possesses some competitive advantage over other existing trigonometric-based models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article e02843"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144722417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chaimae ALLA , Afaf MEHIOU , Zachee L.E. AKISSI , Ali BERRAAOUAN , Amanat ALI , Hassane MEKHFI , Abdelkhaleq LEGSSYER , Sevser SAHPAZ , Abderrahim ZIYYAT
{"title":"Hypotensive and potent vasorelaxant effects of the methanolic extract of Ziziphus lotus (L.) Lam: Involvement of NO/SERCA Pathway and Activation of Kir Channels","authors":"Chaimae ALLA , Afaf MEHIOU , Zachee L.E. AKISSI , Ali BERRAAOUAN , Amanat ALI , Hassane MEKHFI , Abdelkhaleq LEGSSYER , Sevser SAHPAZ , Abderrahim ZIYYAT","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02872","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02872","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In Morocco, <em>Ziziphus lotus</em> is used in traditional medicine to treat hypertension. This study investigated the vasorelaxant effect, antioxidant activity, and chemical composition of sequential extracts of <em>Z. lotus</em>. The methanolic extract (MeOHExt) was specifically examined for its mechanisms of action and hypotensive effect.</div><div>The vasorelaxant effect was assessed using thoracic aorta rings, while the hypotensive effect was evaluated on anesthetized rats. Antioxidant activity was determined using the DPPH assay. Chemical analysis involved thin-layer chromatography, colorimetric methods, and UHPLC-ESI-MS.</div><div>Sequential extracts of <em>Z. lotus</em> exhibited vasorelaxant effects in a concentration-dependent manner. MeOHExt appeared to be the most active with a 79 % relaxation response at 10<sup>–1</sup> mg/mL. This effect was completely abolished in the absence of endothelium and after pretreatment with l-NAME and thapsigargin. Preincubation of aortic rings with BaCl<sub>2</sub> significantly decreased the effect; however, 4-AP did not impact it. In <em>vivo</em>, at a dose of 25 mg/kg, MeOHExt caused a significant reduction in systolic, diastolic, and mean blood pressure without affecting heart rate. MeOHExt is characterized by a potent antioxidant activity, with an IC<sub>50</sub> of 170 µg/mL. Preliminary phytochemical analysis of the sequential extracts revealed the presence of flavonoids and tannins. MeOHExt was rich in non-tannic polyphenols, with rutin identified as a major compound.</div><div>These results show that MeOHExt exhibits significant vasorelaxant and hypotensive effects via the NO/SERCA pump pathway, partially involving Kir channels. These effects are likely attributable to its high content of non-tannic polyphenols, especially flavonoids.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article e02872"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144723455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ebenezer David Okwaning Ansa , Ruby Cleland , Linda Ama Owusuaa Amoah , Regina Ama Banu , Sylvia Afriyie Squire
{"title":"Microbial contamination of biodigester effluents in the La Dadekotopon district of Accra, Ghana","authors":"Ebenezer David Okwaning Ansa , Ruby Cleland , Linda Ama Owusuaa Amoah , Regina Ama Banu , Sylvia Afriyie Squire","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02868","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02868","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>Challenges in wastewater treatment have prompted the adoption of cost-effective and environmentally cleaner biodigesters as alternatives to septic tanks. However, their effectiveness in the field is uncertain. This study investigated the effluent quality from bio-digesters and assessed enteric bacterial contamination in the La community.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We evaluated the quality of effluents from bio-digesters in six suburbs by measuring Total coliform (T. C) and faecal coliform counts. We also tested food pack samples and hand rinse/hand washing water from vendors for T.C., <em>Escherichia coli</em> contamination, moulds, and yeast. Additionally, we analysed reported enteritis cases from 2016 to 2019 to assess prevalence.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Biodigesters discharged effluent with <em>E. coli</em> concentrations from 2.6 × 10⁶ to 6.51 × 10⁶ cfu/ml, and T. C levels ranged from 50 × 10<sup>5</sup> to 930 × 10<sup>5</sup> cfu/ml. Leaf food packs had yeast counts from 520 to 2808 cfu/ml. For hand rinse/hand washing water, T.C. levels varied from 5.0 × 10⁴ to 1395 × 10⁴ cfu/mL, and <em>E. coli</em> levels ranged from 1.0 × 10⁴ to 651 × 10⁴ cfu/ml. The prevalence of typhoid fever increased with age, while diarrhoeal diseases decreased.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>Biodigester effluent exceeded E.P.A Ghana's permissible levels for total and faecal coliforms. High yeast levels were found in food leaf packs, and hand rinse/hand washing water showed elevated coliform counts, which pose infection risks for consumers, especially since vendors sometimes serve food with bare hands. Regular community engagement in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) practices is essential to achieve SDGs 6 and 3.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article e02868"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144757061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Choice experimental assessment of the cost of sea level rise in the context of global climatic change: Evidence based on private insurance packages in Ghana","authors":"Chineboaba A. Afful , Aklesso Y.G. Egbendewe","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02862","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02862","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research seeks to estimate the cost of sea level rise in the context of global climatic change with evidence from the coastal West African country of Ghana. The willingness to pay for proposed flood insurance packages which translates into private demand of protection against damages caused by sea level is used to estimate the total out of sample cost faced by economic agents living across the region. The Choice Modeling (CM) approach which has its foundation from the Random Utility Theory (RUT) originally developed by Marschak (1960), is used in the estimation of the total sea level rise cost from private market perspective. The results show that gender, knowledge of sea level rise, ability to cope with sea level rise and being displaced by sea level rise are the key factors that govern one’s decision to choose an insurance package or not. Also, men are more likely to choose insurance packages and pay more as compared to women. The estimated average willingness to pay for all packages is 1830 local currency units (LCU). In addition, the average willingness to pay for all packages for the total households (about 1808 households) of the study area is approximately 3308,640 LCU. The study encourages flood insurance purchase as a private solution to sea level rise which may require subsidies from the government for the coastal dwellers to afford the proposed packages. In particular, vulnerable groups such as households led by women may need subsidies from public funds to adapt.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article e02862"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144711763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Deo Shao , Roselyne Alphonce , Fredrick Ishengoma , Hilda Mwangakala , Frederick Chali , Cesilia Mambile , Abiud Bongole , Hector Mongi , Bernard Julius , Aliko Matola
{"title":"Blockchain technology and power asymmetries in Tanzanian agricultural supply chains","authors":"Deo Shao , Roselyne Alphonce , Fredrick Ishengoma , Hilda Mwangakala , Frederick Chali , Cesilia Mambile , Abiud Bongole , Hector Mongi , Bernard Julius , Aliko Matola","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02867","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02867","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the role of power relations in agricultural supply chains and their impact on sustainability, market access, and technology adoption. Using the Resource Dependence Theory (RDT), this study explains the influence of power asymmetries between stakeholders, such as large buyers and smallholder farmers, on the diffusion of emerging technologies in the Agricultural Supply Chain (ASC) in Tanzania. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining field surveys in three regions of Tanzania with a comprehensive literature review. The surveys targeted key groups in the ASC, including smallholder farmers, large-scale farmers, buyers, transporters, and local and national leaders. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics and correlation analyses. The findings show that buyers exert disproportionate influence over pricing (mean score: 5.61), while smallholders, youth, and women remain marginalised (mean scores below 4.0). Large-scale farmers and buyers heavily influence pricing decisions and technology adoption. Correlation analysis reveals a significant disparity, with smallholders and buyers exhibiting almost no pricing alignment (<em>r</em> = 0.002), whereas buyers and national leaders show a close alignment (<em>r</em> = 0.396). Strong AMCOS reported higher stakeholder influence than weak ones (mean 5.76 vs. 4.85). The results signal critical barriers to equitable technology adoption. We argue that blockchain technology can intervene by decentralising information access to rebalance these power asymmetries and enhance market inclusion. The study offers empirical insights for designing inclusive, technology-enabled agricultural markets. The results help policymakers develop targeted interventions to enable smallholders, women, and other disadvantaged groups to access and adopt technologies. Comparative research in different regions could further expand the understanding of how power dynamics and technology adoption evolve.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article e02867"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144711765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Elijah Kolawole Oladipo , Isaac Oluseun Adejumo , Jerry Ayobami Oluwasegun , Boluwatife Ayobami Irewolede , Gladys Ayodele Adigun , Elizabeth Olawumi Akindiya , Daniel Adewole Adediran , Glory Jesudara Oluwasanya , Seun Elijah Olufemi , Sola Peter Ogunmodede
{"title":"Advancing yaws diagnosis through point of care diagnostics: A peptide-centric design approach","authors":"Elijah Kolawole Oladipo , Isaac Oluseun Adejumo , Jerry Ayobami Oluwasegun , Boluwatife Ayobami Irewolede , Gladys Ayodele Adigun , Elizabeth Olawumi Akindiya , Daniel Adewole Adediran , Glory Jesudara Oluwasanya , Seun Elijah Olufemi , Sola Peter Ogunmodede","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02869","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02869","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Yaws, a chronic Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) caused by Treponema pallidum subsp. pertenue, causes severe skin ulcers and bone damage if untreated, primarily affecting marginalized communities. Current diagnostics, like serology and microscopy, are impractical in endemic regions due to their reliance on lab infrastructure and trained personnel. To overcome this, we developed the first strain-specific, multi-epitope peptide-based diagnostic targeting unique T. p. pertenue genes (*tprA-L, arp, tp92*), enabling point-of-care detection. Using combinatorial bioinformatics (VaxiJen, ABCpred, IEDB) and structural validation, we predicted immunogenic B- and T-cell epitopes from 15 conserved genes (tprA–L, arp, tp92, recQ, mcp1–4) across six T. p. pertenue strains (SamoaD, CDC_2, Gauthier, Ghana_051, CDC_2575, LMNP). Twelve high-affinity peptides were identified with strong antigenicity and stability. Candidates were evaluated for solubility, codon optimization, and structural stability, followed by molecular docking to confirm binding affinity with human antibodies. Results showed exceptional binding characteristics (e.g., -364.74 kcal/mol for Tp92), surpassing prior treponemal biomarkers, with high confidence scores (>0.9). Our multi-target approach achieved 94.2 % specificity and 88.5 % sensitivity in silico, effectively distinguishing T. p. pertenue from related pathogens. This study provides a scalable, low-cost framework for field-deployable diagnostics, aligning with WHO’s 2030 eradication goals by enabling early detection in resource-limited settings. By merging computational design with translational feasibility, our work advances tropical disease diagnostics and offers a template for other NTDs with similar challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article e02869"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144722421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Energy consumption forecasting and thermal insulator selection with random forest regression","authors":"Mohammed Fellah , Salma Ouhaibi , Naoual Belouaggadia , Khalifa Mansouri","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02870","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02870","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Thermal insulation is one of the most widespread and effective solutions for minimizing energy consumption in buildings. However, selecting the most suitable insulating material for specific climatic conditions remains a major challenge. Moreover, predicting this energy consumption is complex due to the diversity of parameters to be considered as well as the different existing climate zones.</div><div>In this context, this work proposes a machine learning-based model to predict an energy consumption index in the case of using thermal insulators in various climate zones around the world. The objective is to identify the most optimal insulator among several options. The model used in this study is Random Forest (RF), which belongs to the family of ensemble learning models.</div><div>The data used in this study come from numerical simulations carried out with Matlab and consist of 1400 samples, derived from the analysis of 35 thermal insulators distributed across 20 climate zones. Each zone was studied by considering three typical summer days and three typical winter days. After designing this database, a preprocessing step was performed to analyze the distribution of the Φ index to be predicted. In addition, a correlation analysis was conducted to identify the most influential characteristics on energy consumption, thereby enhancing the predictive performance of the model.</div><div>The results show that the RF algorithm provides remarkable performance in predicting this performance index, with an R² accuracy of 84% and a mean absolute error of 0.02. These performances were evaluated in comparison with other models commonly used in similar studies, confirming the superiority of the RF model in terms of accuracy and reliability.</div><div>These results highlight the strong predictive capability of the RF model in estimating the value of the Φ index, i.e., energy consumption. The application of this model appears promising for optimizing energy consumption in buildings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article e02870"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144716115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}