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Enhanced dam spillage prediction using lagged feedback random forests at Weija Dam, Ghana 利用滞后反馈随机森林在加纳Weija大坝增强大坝溢出预测
IF 3.7
Scientific African Pub Date : 2026-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03611
Michael Nyoagbe, Jonathan Arthur Quaye-Ballard, John Divine Wise Ayer, Yaw Mensah Asare, Tina Dzigbordi Wemegah
{"title":"Enhanced dam spillage prediction using lagged feedback random forests at Weija Dam, Ghana","authors":"Michael Nyoagbe,&nbsp;Jonathan Arthur Quaye-Ballard,&nbsp;John Divine Wise Ayer,&nbsp;Yaw Mensah Asare,&nbsp;Tina Dzigbordi Wemegah","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03611","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03611","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate prediction of dam spillage is essential for mitigating flood risks to downstream communities and for the optimal management of water resources. Existing machine learning models often struggle to capture the delayed hydrological responses that influence reservoir spillage. This limits their operational usefulness for early warning and reservoir management. This study proposes a lag-enhanced Random Forest forecasting framework, termed Lagged-Feedback Random Forest (LFRF), that systematically incorporates temporal feedback from historical data points to improve dam spillage prediction. The framework was benchmarked against three alternative approaches, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, standard Random Forest (RF), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), as well as four additional contemporary architectures, XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, and a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), using the Weija Dam's 15-year daily historical record and a 40-day lag structure. Models were evaluated using RMSE, MAE, and R² (in m³/s, consistent with the observed spillage discharge), alongside the dimensionless Correlation and T-test statistics. LFRF outperformed all other models with an R² of 0.94 and a Correlation of 0.97, with a T-test statistic of 0.078 indicating minimal systematic deviation from observed values; LFRF and LSTM achieved comparable, markedly lower prediction errors than RF and ANN. Standard RF, XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, and ANN were evaluated as naive baselines using only current-day readings, without either the lagged features given to LFRF or the sequence-native architecture used by LSTM and a Temporal Convolutional Network; all five naive models performed similarly poorly regardless of algorithm sophistication. For the Weija Dam dataset and the configurations evaluated, access to lagged temporal information appeared to contribute more strongly to predictive performance than model architecture alone. These findings highlight the value of lagged features in Random Forest ensembles for dam spillage prediction and identify several lag “sweet spots” — 7-8 days, 15-17 days, 25-26 days, and approximately 30-40 days — at which LFRF provided consistently strong predictive performance that could support real-time operational decisions and risk mitigation at the dam.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article e03611"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148951699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Disturbance type predicts Isoberlinia spp. regeneration modes across vegetation units in sudano-guinean woodlands of Benin 干扰类型预测了贝宁苏丹-几内亚林地不同植被单元间的异红蝇再生模式
IF 3.7
Scientific African Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-08-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03586
Hidirou Orou, Eméline Sêssi Pélagie Assèdé, Euphrasie Mede, Samadori Sorotori Honoré Biaou
{"title":"Disturbance type predicts Isoberlinia spp. regeneration modes across vegetation units in sudano-guinean woodlands of Benin","authors":"Hidirou Orou,&nbsp;Eméline Sêssi Pélagie Assèdé,&nbsp;Euphrasie Mede,&nbsp;Samadori Sorotori Honoré Biaou","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03586","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03586","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The degradation of West African woodland ecosystems threatens the natural regeneration processes of <em>Isoberlinia spp</em>., dominant tree species in sudano-guinean woodlands of Benin. This study analyzed its natural regeneration modes in the N'dali protected forest (Benin) across three vegetation units. Using stratified random sampling, we established 30 main plots (20 m × 20 m) and characterized 481 regenerating individuals as regeneration from seed, root suckers, and stump sprouts. Vegetative regeneration overwhelmingly dominated (82.5%), with stump sprouts accounting for 59%, root suckers 23.5%, and regeneration from seed for only 17.5%. Stump sprouts showed superior growth performance (median diameter: 0.8 cm, median height: 55 cm) compared to root suckers (0.5 cm, 45 cm) and regeneration from seed (0.2 cm, 15 cm). Regeneration modes varied significantly across vegetation units (p &lt; 0.001). Stump sprouts decreased from 93.3% in fallow land to 55.6% in wooded savanna and 44.4% in woodland, whereas regeneration from seed rose from 6.7% to 17.8% and 23.5%. A multinomial mixed-effects logistic regression accounting for the nested spatial structure of the data (subplots within plots) identified disturbance type as the main driver of regeneration mode. Grazing alone suppressed stump sprouts (p &lt; 0.001), whereas the combination of grazing and logging significantly increased the probability of root suckering (p = 0.018). These results reveal a dynamic shift between sexual and vegetative regeneration pathways in <em>Isoberlinia</em> spp. Woodland. Conserving sexual reproduction in less disturbed woodlands is recommended to maintain genetic diversity, while vegetative regeneration of <em>Isoberlinia</em> spp. can be harnessed for the rapid restoration of the degraded woodlands.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article e03586"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148951695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
LC-MS/MS validation of ellagic acid rhamnopyranoside as a species-specific chemical marker for authentication of Synadenium glaucescens in herbal medicines LC-MS/MS验证鞣花酸鼠李糖苷作为药材中甘草的物种特异性化学标记
IF 3.7
Scientific African Pub Date : 2026-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03613
Edward C. Dilunga, Christopher J. Mwankuna, Shimo P. Shimo, Faith P. Mabiki
{"title":"LC-MS/MS validation of ellagic acid rhamnopyranoside as a species-specific chemical marker for authentication of Synadenium glaucescens in herbal medicines","authors":"Edward C. Dilunga,&nbsp;Christopher J. Mwankuna,&nbsp;Shimo P. Shimo,&nbsp;Faith P. Mabiki","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03613","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03613","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The authentication of medicinal plants used in herbal products remains a major challenge due to morphological similarities among species, processing-induced loss of diagnostic characteristics, and the absence of reliable species-specific chemical markers. <em>Synadenium glaucescens</em>, an important medicinal plant widely used in Tanzania, lacks an analytically validated marker for routine authentication and quality control.</div><div>This study aimed to validate ellagic acid rhamnopyranoside (EAR) and evaluate its suitability as a candidate species-specific marker for the authentication of <em>S. glaucescens</em> using a targeted and selective liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) platform, thereby providing an evidence-based approach for marker-driven verification of this medicinal species in finished herbal products</div><div>Chromatographic and mass spectrometric conditions were systematically optimized using multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) under positive electrospray ionization (ESI). The developed method was validated for linearity, sensitivity, precision, accuracy, matrix effect, and chromatographic performance in accordance with international analytical validation guidelines and was subsequently applied to a commercial herbal formulation. EAR exhibited characteristic fragmentation via dual MRM transitions (m/z 477→331 and 331→299), which were tracked to provide high analytical specificity for compound confirmation. The optimized LC-MS/MS method demonstrated excellent linearity (R² = 0.9983), satisfactory sensitivity, acceptable precision and accuracy, negligible matrix interference, and stable chromatographic performance. EAR was successfully detected and quantified (444.41 µg mL⁻¹) in the commercial herbal formulation, confirming the presence of <em>S. glaucescens</em> in the finished product.</div><div>This study establishes ellagic acid rhamnopyranoside as a validated species-specific chemical marker for <em>Synadenium glaucescens</em>, providing the first robust analytical framework for the authentication, quality control, and standardization of <em>S. glaucescens</em>-containing herbal medicines, while offering a practical approach to strengthen the regulatory evaluation of herbal products</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article e03613"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148951693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Protection techniques in AC microgrids under DGER penetration : A comprehensive review and future directions DGER渗透下交流微电网保护技术综述及未来发展方向
IF 3.7
Scientific African Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-08-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03578
Hamza Squendissy, Wiam Ayrir, Hassan El fadil
{"title":"Protection techniques in AC microgrids under DGER penetration : A comprehensive review and future directions","authors":"Hamza Squendissy,&nbsp;Wiam Ayrir,&nbsp;Hassan El fadil","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03578","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03578","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid integration of renewable Distributed Generation (DG) is transforming traditional electrical networks into decentralized AC microgrids. While these systems offer enhanced flexibility, the high penetration of inverter-dominated resources introduces significant protection challenges. Conventional schemes, designed for unidirectional flow and high fault currents, often fail in microgrids due to bidirectional power flows, and the limited fault current capacity of power electronic interfaces in both grid-connected and islanded modes. Numerous strategies have been proposed in the literature to address these challenges. This paper provides a comprehensive review of recent AC microgrid protection techniques, including conventional, and adaptive-based methods. A comparative analysis highlights the strengths, limitations, and suitability of each approach under varying microgrid operating conditions. Based on this analysis, key insights and recommendations are presented to support future advancements in microgrid protection systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article e03578"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148854089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trust-aware federated spectrum sensing for secure and sustainable smart city satellite networks 用于安全和可持续的智慧城市卫星网络的信任感知联合频谱传感
IF 3.7
Scientific African Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03575
Enfel Barkat
{"title":"Trust-aware federated spectrum sensing for secure and sustainable smart city satellite networks","authors":"Enfel Barkat","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03575","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03575","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reliable and scalable wireless connectivity is essential for smart city infrastructures supporting large-scale Internet of Things (IoT) deployments, intelligent transportation systems, and urban environmental monitoring. Efficient spectrum utilization in such environments requires cooperative sensing mechanisms that remain accurate under heterogeneous signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) conditions and non-independent and identically distributed (non-IID) sensing data, while preserving privacy and scalability. However, conventional centralized spectrum sensing approaches suffer from high communication overhead, limited scalability, and vulnerability to unreliable sensing updates, making them unsuitable for distributed satellite-assisted cognitive radio networks (CRNs). This paper proposes a secure and privacy-preserving federated spectrum sensing framework for satellite-assisted smart city CRNs. The framework combines trust-weighted federated learning, permissioned blockchain-based secure validation, and differential privacy (DP) to improve aggregation reliability without requiring the exchange of raw sensing data. A lightweight one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D-CNN) enables efficient spectrum feature extraction under low-SNR conditions, while a dynamic trust evaluation mechanism mitigates the influence of unreliable participants by weighting local updates according to a reliability score derived from local validation accuracy on a held-out sensing subset.</div><div>Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed framework converges approximately 35% faster than standard federated averaging (FedAvg) and achieves <span><math><mrow><mn>97.5</mn><mtext>%</mtext><mo>±</mo><mn>0.4</mn><mtext>%</mtext></mrow></math></span> sensing accuracy across five independent simulation runs, closely approaching centralized performance (98.2%), and remains robust when scaled to 200 devices. Trust-weighted aggregation yields a 6%–8% accuracy improvement over FedAvg under low-SNR conditions, while DP introduces only a 0.6% reduction in accuracy. The secure validation layer incurs approximately 10% additional inter-satellite communication overhead, confirming that Byzantine-resilient aggregation and privacy preservation can be achieved with limited performance penalty in satellite-assisted smart city spectrum sensing systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article e03575"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148854088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatiotemporal analysis of Belg rainfall in drought-prone areas of the eastern Amhara region of Ethiopia and agricultural implications 埃塞俄比亚东部阿姆哈拉地区干旱易发地区比利时降水时空分析及其农业意义
IF 3.7
Scientific African Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03596
Amogne Asfaw Eshetu
{"title":"Spatiotemporal analysis of Belg rainfall in drought-prone areas of the eastern Amhara region of Ethiopia and agricultural implications","authors":"Amogne Asfaw Eshetu","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03596","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03596","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Belg rainfall plays a vital role in sustaining rural livelihoods in the drought-prone eastern Amhara Region of Ethiopia. However, increasing climate variability has created significant uncertainty for agricultural production. Localized assessments of Belg rainfall integrating quantitative climatic analysis with stakeholder perceptions remain limited. This study examined the spatiotemporal variability and trends of Belg rainfall across the eastern Amhara Region. A mixed-methods research design was employed by integrating quantitative analysis of Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data (CHIRPS) rainfall records (1981–2025) with qualitative data obtained from interviews with 32 purposively selected agricultural development agents. Rainfall variability was assessed using the coefficient of variation, standardized rainfall anomaly, and standardized precipitation index, while temporal trends were evaluated using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. The findings revealed substantial spatio-temporal variability in Belg rainfall. Seasonal rainfall exhibited moderate interannual variability (CV = 26.74%) but significant fluctuations between wet and dry years. Trend analysis showed statistically significant declines in March rainfall (−0.883 mm per year) and total Belg rainfall (−1.784 mm/year). Interview participants consistently reported delayed rainfall onset, erratic intra-seasonal distribution, recurrent dry spells, and declining rainfall reliability, corroborating the quantitative findings. The study concludes that Belg rainfall is becoming increasingly unreliable, posing serious risks to rain-fed agriculture and food security. Strengthening climate information services, promoting drought-tolerant and early-maturing crop varieties, expanding soil and water conservation practices, water harvesting, supplemental irrigation, and location-specific climate adaptation strategies are recommended to enhance agricultural resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article e03596"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148951698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Determinants of blockchain adoption in beekeeping: Evidence from selected regions of Spain, Tunisia, and Turkey 在养蜂业中区块链采用的决定因素:来自西班牙、突尼斯和土耳其选定地区的证据
IF 3.7
Scientific African Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03584
Yamna Erraach, Lamia Arfa, Emna Ouertani, Selene Ivette Ornelas Herrera, Tahani Mlayeh, Seval Mutlu Çamoğlu, Tiziana de-Magistris, Zein Kallas
{"title":"Determinants of blockchain adoption in beekeeping: Evidence from selected regions of Spain, Tunisia, and Turkey","authors":"Yamna Erraach,&nbsp;Lamia Arfa,&nbsp;Emna Ouertani,&nbsp;Selene Ivette Ornelas Herrera,&nbsp;Tahani Mlayeh,&nbsp;Seval Mutlu Çamoğlu,&nbsp;Tiziana de-Magistris,&nbsp;Zein Kallas","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03584","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03584","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Blockchain technology (BCT) has emerged as an innovative solution to improve traceability, transparency, and trust in food supply chains. Nevertheless, its adoption is still at a nascent stage worldwide, particularly in the agriculture and agrifood sectors.</div><div>In this context, this study empirically investigates the determinants of beekeepers' intention to adopt a BCT traceability system through the integration of three relevant theories: the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), and the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT). A quantitative survey was conducted among 159 beekeepers in selected regions from three Mediterranean countries: Tunisia, Turkey, and Spain. We used Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) in SmartPLS 4.0 for data analysis.</div><div>Findings reveal that performance expectancy was the strongest direct predictor of behavioral intention. Likewise, attitudes and perceived behavioral control significantly influence the intention to adopt, while subjective norms and facilitating conditions do not have any significant influence. Furthermore, the perceived cost of blockchain emerges as a significant barrier to adoption. These results underscore that, at this early stage of blockchain diffusion, adoption intention among the sampled beekeepers is shaped primarily by individual-centered cost-benefit evaluations rather than normative pressure or facilitating conditions.</div><div>The study provides important theoretical and managerial implications. It contributes to technology adoption theory by showing that the determinants of adoption depend on the characteristics of the sector. In the studied context, beekeepers’ evaluations were more strongly associated with adoption intention than normative pressure or perceived facilitating conditions. From a practical perspective, technology providers should prioritize intuitive, cost-effective, and user-friendly platforms. Policymakers and extension services should deliver targeted capacity-building training to strengthen beekeepers' digital capabilities and raise favorable attitudes regarding blockchain benefits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article e03584"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148994691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Relay de-noising algorithm for physical layer network coding with higher order M-QAM 高阶M-QAM物理层网络编码中继去噪算法
IF 3.7
Scientific African Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03568
Alaa A. Yassin, Ebtihal H.G. Yousif, Rashid A. Saeed, Hashim Elshafie, Mohammed Ali Alhariri
{"title":"Relay de-noising algorithm for physical layer network coding with higher order M-QAM","authors":"Alaa A. Yassin,&nbsp;Ebtihal H.G. Yousif,&nbsp;Rashid A. Saeed,&nbsp;Hashim Elshafie,&nbsp;Mohammed Ali Alhariri","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03568","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03568","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Physical-layer Network Coding (PNC) was investigated to achieve high performance of wireless communication systems. This paper introduces a new relay de-noising algorithm called RDA for the two-way relaying channel of PNC (TWRN-PNC) over a Rician fading channel. In addition, the error probability of the proposed scenario is analyzed and derived for the multiple access (MA) phase and the end-to-end communication link. The scenario considers square M-ary Quadrature Amplitude Modulation (square M-QAM) at all nodes, and RDA generates a custom Latin square (CLS) based on clustering rules for constellation points to remove the singular fade state (SFS). Furthermore, theoretical and simulation results of average error probability are obtained to verify the mathematical model for both MA and end-to-end links. The results indicate that the RDA improves the performance of PNC systems with high-order modulation and reduces the average Symbol Error Rate (SER) by 20% for 4-QAM and 16-QAM schemes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article e03568"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148854090","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of Fusarium wilt of banana in a plantation system 香蕉枯萎病在种植系统中传播动力学的确定性数学模型
IF 3.7
Scientific African Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03573
Olivia Andrea, Edwiga Renald, Geminpeter Lyakurwa, Verdiana G. Masanja
{"title":"A deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of Fusarium wilt of banana in a plantation system","authors":"Olivia Andrea,&nbsp;Edwiga Renald,&nbsp;Geminpeter Lyakurwa,&nbsp;Verdiana G. Masanja","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03573","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03573","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fusarium wilt of banana (FWB), caused by the soil-borne fungus <em>Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense</em>, remains one of the most devastating diseases threatening banana production across Africa and worldwide. Understanding its transmission dynamics is essential for developing effective management strategies. In this study, a deterministic susceptible, exposed, infectious, removed-pathogens (SEIR-P) mathematical model is formulated to investigate the transmission dynamics of FWB in a banana plantation system, incorporating both banana plants and environmental pathogens populations. The effective reproduction number <span><math><mi>ℛ</mi></math></span> is derived using the next-generation matrix method, and stability analysis is conducted to determine conditions for disease elimination or persistence. Model parameters have been estimated using a synthetically generated dataset obtained by adding Gaussian noise to model simulation to mimic real-world variability with the help of adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method implemented in MATLAB. Local and global sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the model’s robustness to parameter values. Population level impacts of significant parameters were studied. The results indicate that recruitment of susceptible plants, plant-to-plant transmission, pathogen recruitment, and incubation rates positively influence disease spread, while removal of infectious plants reduce transmission. These findings highlight the importance of early detection and timely removal of infectious plants, together with improved sanitation practices that limit environmental pathogen recruitment, as effective strategies for controlling FWB in banana plantation systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article e03573"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148854091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Drimia plant species for the treatment of various diseases: An overview of the scientific evaluations with its ethnobotany 治疗各种疾病的水草属植物:及其民族植物学的科学评价综述
IF 3.7
Scientific African Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03601
Sherouk Hussein Sweilam, Dalia E. Ali, Marwa Elhady, Reham Hassan Mekky
{"title":"Drimia plant species for the treatment of various diseases: An overview of the scientific evaluations with its ethnobotany","authors":"Sherouk Hussein Sweilam,&nbsp;Dalia E. Ali,&nbsp;Marwa Elhady,&nbsp;Reham Hassan Mekky","doi":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03601","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03601","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The genus <em>Drimia</em> (syn. <em>Urginea</em>) comprises bulbous plants belonging to the family Asparagaceae (formerly Hyacinthaceae), widely recognized for their medicinal and toxic properties. Several <em>Drimia</em> species are indigenous to South Africa, where they have been traditionally employed for centuries to treat a range of ailments, including dropsy, respiratory infections, bone and joint disorders, skin diseases, epilepsy, and cancer. The bulbs are particularly valued for treating colds, pneumonia, coughs, fever, and headaches. This review aims to comprehensively summarize and critically evaluate the ethnomedicinal uses, phytochemical composition, pharmacological activities, and toxicological aspects of <em>Drimia</em> species, elucidating their therapeutic potential and highlighting existing knowledge gaps. A systematic search of scientific databases, including ScienceDirect, Scopus, PubMed, Web of Science, and Google Scholar, was conducted. Literature published up to 2025 was analyzed, emphasizing studies between 2017 and 2025 to assess recent trends in phytochemical and pharmacological investigations. Cardiac glycosides were identified as the principal bioactive constituents across <em>Drimia</em> species, accompanied by phenolic compounds, phytosterols, and other secondary metabolites. Reported pharmacological effects include antiviral, antibacterial, antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, immunomodulatory, and anticancer activities. Despite extensive biological evaluation, only 4 out of 464 retrieved publications addressed toxicity and safety, indicating a substantial research gap in toxicological characterization. Analytical <em>Drimia</em> represents a pharmaceutically valuable yet toxic genus whose dual nature demands cautious investigation. Further studies are warranted to isolate novel therapeutic compounds, define safety thresholds, and establish standardized preparations that balance efficacy with toxicity for safe ethnopharmacological application.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21690,"journal":{"name":"Scientific African","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article e03601"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148951694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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