Reviews of Geophysics最新文献

{"title":"Coastal Flooding in Asian Megadeltas: Recent Advances, Persistent Challenges, and Call for Actions Amidst Local and Global Changes","authors":"M. Becker,&nbsp;K. Seeger,&nbsp;A. Paszkowski,&nbsp;M. Marcos,&nbsp;F. Papa,&nbsp;R. Almar,&nbsp;P. Bates,&nbsp;C. France-Lanord,&nbsp;Md S. Hossain,&nbsp;Md J. U. Khan,&nbsp;M. A. Karegar,&nbsp;M. Karpytchev,&nbsp;N. Long,&nbsp;P. S. J. Minderhoud,&nbsp;J. Neal,&nbsp;R. J. Nicholls,&nbsp;J. Syvitski","doi":"10.1029/2024RG000846","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024RG000846","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Asian megadeltas, specifically the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, Irrawaddy, Chao Phraya, Mekong, and Red River deltas host half of the world's deltaic population and are vital for Asian countries' ecosystems and food production. These deltas are extremely vulnerable to global change. Accelerating relative sea-level rise, combined with rapid socio-economic development intensifies these vulnerabilities and calls for a comprehensive understanding of current and future coastal flood dynamics. Here we provide a state-of-the-art on the current knowledge and recent advances in quantifying and understanding the drivers of coastal flood-related hazards in these deltas. We discuss the environmental and physical drivers, including climate influence, hydrology, oceanography, geomorphology, and geophysical processes and how they interact from short to long-term changes, including during extreme events. We also jointly examine how human disturbances, with catchment interventions, land use changes and resource exploitations, contribute to coastal flooding in the deltas. Through a systems perspective, we characterize the current state of the deltaic systems and provide essential insights for shaping their sustainable future trajectories regarding the multifaceted challenges of coastal flooding.</p>","PeriodicalId":21177,"journal":{"name":"Reviews of Geophysics","volume":"62 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":25.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024RG000846","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142832711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Short-Lived Air Pollutants and Climate Forcers Through the Lens of the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Yuan Wang,&nbsp;Chenchong Zhang,&nbsp;Elyse A. Pennington,&nbsp;Liyin He,&nbsp;Jiani Yang,&nbsp;Xueying Yu,&nbsp;Yangfan Liu,&nbsp;John H. Seinfeld","doi":"10.1029/2022RG000773","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2022RG000773","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Dramatic reductions in anthropogenic emissions during the lockdowns of the COVID-19 pandemic provide an unparalleled opportunity to assess responses of the Earth system to human activities. Here, we synthesize the latest progress in understanding changes in short-lived atmospheric constituents, that is, aerosols, ozone (O₃), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), and methane (CH₄), in response to COVID-19 induced emission reductions and the associated climate impacts on regional and global scales. The large-scale emission reduction in the transportation sector reduced near-surface particulate and ozone concentrations, with certain regional enhancements modulated by atmospheric oxidizing capacity and abnormal meteorological conditions. The methane increase during the pandemic is a combined effect of fluctuations in methane emissions and chemical sinks. Global net radiative forcing of all short-lived species was found to be small, but regionally, aerosol radiative impacts during the lockdowns were discernible near China and India. Aerosol microphysical effects on clouds and precipitation were reported from modeling assessments only, except for observed reductions in aircraft contrails. There exist moderate climatic impacts of the pandemic on regional surface temperature, atmospheric circulations, and ecosystems, mainly over populous and polluted areas. Novel methodologies emerge in the pandemic-related research to achieve the synergy between observations from multiple platforms and model simulations and to overcome the enormous hurdles and sophistication in detection and attribution studies. The insight gained from COVID-19 research concerning the complex interplay between emission, chemistry, and meteorology, as well as the unexpected climate forcing-responses relationships, underscores future challenges for cleaning up the air and alleviating the adverse impacts of global warming.</p>","PeriodicalId":21177,"journal":{"name":"Reviews of Geophysics","volume":"62 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":25.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142804954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Carbon Mineralization in Fractured Mafic and Ultramafic Rocks: A Review","authors":"H. Nisbet,&nbsp;G. Buscarnera,&nbsp;J. W. Carey,&nbsp;M. A. Chen,&nbsp;E. Detournay,&nbsp;H. Huang,&nbsp;J. D. Hyman,&nbsp;P. K. Kang,&nbsp;Q. Kang,&nbsp;J. F. Labuz,&nbsp;W. Li,&nbsp;J. Matter,&nbsp;C. W. Neil,&nbsp;G. Srinivasan,&nbsp;M. R. Sweeney,&nbsp;V. R. Voller,&nbsp;W. Yang,&nbsp;Y. Yang,&nbsp;H. S. Viswanathan","doi":"10.1029/2023RG000815","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2023RG000815","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Mineral carbon storage in mafic and ultramafic rock masses has the potential to be an effective and permanent mechanism to reduce anthropogenic CO₂. Several successful pilot-scale projects have been carried out in basaltic rock (e.g., CarbFix, Wallula), demonstrating the potential for rapid CO₂ sequestration. However, these tests have been limited to the injection of small quantities of CO₂. Thus, the longevity and feasibility of long-term, large-scale mineralization operations to store the levels of CO₂ needed to address the present climate crisis is unknown. Moreover, CO₂ mineralization in ultramafic rocks, which tend to be more reactive but less permeable, has not yet been quantified. In these systems, fractures are expected to play a crucial role in the flow and reaction of CO₂ within the rock mass and will influence the CO₂ storage potential of the system. Therefore, consideration of fractures is imperative to the prediction of CO₂ mineralization at a specific storage site. In this review, we highlight key takeaways, successes, and shortcomings of CO₂ mineralization pilot tests that have been completed and are currently underway. Laboratory experiments, directed toward understanding the complex geochemical and geomechanical reactions that occur during CO₂ mineralization in fractures, are also discussed. Experimental studies and their applicability to field sites are limited in time and scale. Many modeling techniques can be applied to bridge these limitations. We highlight current modeling advances and their potential applications for predicting CO₂ mineralization in mafic and ultramafic rocks.</p>","PeriodicalId":21177,"journal":{"name":"Reviews of Geophysics","volume":"62 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":25.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023RG000815","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142665329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Land Subsidence: Impact of Climate Extremes and Human Activities","authors":"Laurie S. Huning,&nbsp;Charlotte A. Love,&nbsp;Hassan Anjileli,&nbsp;Farshid Vahedifard,&nbsp;Yunxia Zhao,&nbsp;Pedro L. B. Chaffe,&nbsp;Kevin Cooper,&nbsp;Aneseh Alborzi,&nbsp;Edward Pleitez,&nbsp;Alexandre Martinez,&nbsp;Samaneh Ashraf,&nbsp;Iman Mallakpour,&nbsp;Hamed Moftakhari,&nbsp;Amir AghaKouchak","doi":"10.1029/2023RG000817","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2023RG000817","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Globally, land subsidence (LS) often adversely impacts infrastructure, humans, and the environment. As climate change intensifies the terrestrial hydrologic cycle and severity of climate extremes, the interplay among extremes (e.g., floods, droughts, wildfires, etc.), LS, and their effects must be better understood since LS can alter the impacts of extreme events, and extreme events can drive LS. Furthermore, several processes causing subsidence (e.g., ice-rich permafrost degradation, oxidation of organic matter) have been shown to also release greenhouse gases, accelerating climate change. Our review aims to synthesize these complex relationships, including human activities contributing to LS, and to identify the causes and rates of subsidence across diverse landscapes. We primarily focus on the era of synthetic aperture radar (SAR), which has significantly contributed to advancements in our understanding of ground deformations around the world. Ultimately, we identify gaps and opportunities to aid LS monitoring, mitigation, and adaptation strategies and guide interdisciplinary efforts to further our process-based understanding of subsidence and associated climate feedbacks. We highlight the need to incorporate the interplay of extreme events, LS, and human activities into models, risk and vulnerability assessments, and management practices to develop improved mitigation and adaptation strategies as the global climate warms. Without consideration of such interplay and/or feedback loops, we may underestimate the enhancement of climate change and acceleration of LS across many regions, leaving communities unprepared for their ramifications. Proactive and interdisciplinary efforts should be leveraged to develop strategies and policies that mitigate or reverse anthropogenic LS and climate change impacts.</p>","PeriodicalId":21177,"journal":{"name":"Reviews of Geophysics","volume":"62 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":25.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023RG000817","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142563106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamics, Monitoring, and Forecasting of Tephra in the Atmosphere","authors":"F. Pardini,&nbsp;S. Barsotti,&nbsp;C. Bonadonna,&nbsp;M. de’ Michieli Vitturi,&nbsp;A. Folch,&nbsp;L. Mastin,&nbsp;S. Osores,&nbsp;A. T. Prata","doi":"10.1029/2023RG000808","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023RG000808","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Explosive volcanic eruptions inject hot mixtures of solid particles (tephra) and gasses into the atmosphere. Entraining ambient air, these mixtures can form plumes rising tens of kilometers until they spread laterally, forming umbrella clouds. While the largest clasts tend to settle in proximity to the volcano, the smallest fragments, commonly referred to as ash (≤2 mm in diameter), can be transported over long distances, forming volcanic clouds. Tephra plumes and clouds pose significant hazards to human society, affecting infrastructure, and human health through deposition on the ground or airborne suspension at low altitudes. Additionally, volcanic clouds are a threat to aviation, during both high-risk actions such as take-off and landing and at standard cruising altitudes. The ability to monitor and forecast tephra plumes and clouds is fundamental to mitigate the hazard associated with explosive eruptions. To that end, various monitoring techniques, ranging from ground-based instruments to sensors on-board satellites, and forecasting strategies, based on running numerical models to track the position of volcanic clouds, are efficiently employed. However, some limitations still exist, mainly due to the high unpredictability and variability of explosive eruptions, as well as the multiphase and complex nature of volcanic plumes. In the next decades, advances in monitoring and computational capabilities are expected to address these limitations and significantly improve the mitigation of the risk associated with tephra plumes and clouds.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":21177,"journal":{"name":"Reviews of Geophysics","volume":"62 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":25.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023RG000808","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142541023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Age of Stratospheric Air: Progress on Processes, Observations, and Long-Term Trends","authors":"H. Garny,&nbsp;F. Ploeger,&nbsp;M. Abalos,&nbsp;H. Bönisch,&nbsp;A. E. Castillo,&nbsp;T. von Clarmann,&nbsp;M. Diallo,&nbsp;A. Engel,&nbsp;J. C. Laube,&nbsp;M. Linz,&nbsp;J. L. Neu,&nbsp;A. Podglajen,&nbsp;E. Ray,&nbsp;L. Rivoire,&nbsp;L. N. Saunders,&nbsp;G. Stiller,&nbsp;F. Voet,&nbsp;T. Wagenhäuser,&nbsp;K. A. Walker","doi":"10.1029/2023RG000832","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2023RG000832","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Age of stratospheric air is a well established metric for the stratospheric transport circulation. Rooted in a robust theoretical framework, this approach offers the benefit of being deducible from observations of trace gases. Given potential climate-induced changes, observational constraints on stratospheric circulation are crucial. In the past two decades, scientific progress has been made in three main areas: (a) Enhanced process understanding and the development of process diagnostics led to better quantification of individual transport processes from observations and to a better understanding of model deficits. (b) The global age of air climatology is now well constrained by observations thanks to improved quality and quantity of data, including global satellite data, and through improved and consistent age calculation methods. (c) It is well established and understood that global models predict a decrease in age, that is, an accelerating stratospheric circulation, in response to forcing by greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances. Observational records now confirm long-term forced trends in mean age in the lower stratosphere. However, in the mid-stratosphere, uncertainties in observational records are too large to confirm or disprove the model predictions. Continuous monitoring of stratospheric trace gases and further improved methods to derive age from those tracers will be crucial to better constrain variability and long-term trends from observations. Future work on mean age as a metric for stratospheric transport will be important due to its potential to enhance the understanding of stratospheric composition changes, address climate model biases, and assess the impacts of proposed climate geoengineering methods.</p>","PeriodicalId":21177,"journal":{"name":"Reviews of Geophysics","volume":"62 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":25.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023RG000832","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142451944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Managing Induced Seismicity Risks From Enhanced Geothermal Systems: A Good Practice Guideline","authors":"Wen Zhou,&nbsp;Federica Lanza,&nbsp;Iason Grigoratos,&nbsp;Ryan Schultz,&nbsp;Julia Cousse,&nbsp;Evelina Trutnevyte,&nbsp;Annemarie Muntendam-Bos,&nbsp;Stefan Wiemer","doi":"10.1029/2024RG000849","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024RG000849","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Geothermal energy is a green source of power that could play an important role in climate-conscious energy portfolios; enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) have the potential to scale up exploitation of thermal resources. During hydraulic fracturing, fluids injected under high-pressure cause the rock mass to fail, stimulating fractures that improve fluid connectivity. However, this increase of pore fluid pressure can also reactivate pre-existing fault systems, potentially inducing earthquakes of significant size. Induced earthquakes are a significant concern for EGS operations. In some cases, ground shaking nuisance, building damages, or injuries have spurred the early termination of projects (e.g., Basel, Pohang). On the other hand, EGS operations at Soultz-sous-Forêts (France), Helsinki (Finland), Blue Mountain (Nevada, USA), and Utah FORGE (USA) have adequately managed induced earthquake risks. The success of an EGS operation depends on economical reservoir enhancements, while maintaining acceptable seismic risk levels. This requires state-of-the-art seismic risk management. This article reviews domains of seismology, earthquake engineering, risk management, and communication. We then synthesize “good practice” recommendations for evaluating, mitigating, and communicating the risk of induced seismicity. We advocate for a modular approach. Recommendations are provided for key technical aspects including (a) a seismic risk management framework, (b) seismic risk pre-screening, (c) comprehensive seismic hazard and risk evaluation, (d) traffic light protocol designs, (e) seismic monitoring implementation, and (f) step-by-step communication plans. Our recommendations adhere to regulatory best practices, to ensure their general applicability. Our guidelines provide a template for effective earthquake risk management and future research directions.</p>","PeriodicalId":21177,"journal":{"name":"Reviews of Geophysics","volume":"62 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":25.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024RG000849","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142384987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-Scale Soil Salinization Dynamics From Global to Pore Scale: A Review","authors":"Nima Shokri,&nbsp;Amirhossein Hassani,&nbsp;Muhammad Sahimi","doi":"10.1029/2023RG000804","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2023RG000804","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Soil salinization refers to the accumulation of water-soluble salts in the upper part of the soil profile. Excessive levels of soil salinity affects crop production, soil health, and ecosystem functioning. This phenomenon threatens agriculture, food security, soil stability, and fertility leading to land degradation and loss of essential soil ecosystem services that are fundamental to sustaining life. In this review, we synthesize recent advances in soil salinization at various spatial and temporal scales, ranging from global to core, pore, and molecular scales, offering new insights and presenting our perspective on potential future research directions to address key challenges and open questions related to soil salinization. Globally, we identify significant challenges in understanding soil salinity, which are (a) the considerable uncertainty in estimating the total area of salt-affected soils, (b) geographical bias in ground-based measurements of soil salinity, and (c) lack of information and data detailing secondary salinization processes, both in dry- and wetlands, particularly concerning responses to climate change. At the core scale, the impact of salt precipitation with evolving porous structure on the evaporative fluxes from porous media is not fully understood. This knowledge is crucial for accurately predicting soil water loss due to evaporation. Additionally, the effects of transport properties of porous media, such as mixed wettability conditions, on the saline water evaporation and the resulting salt precipitation patterns remain unclear. Furthermore, effective continuum equations must be developed to accurately represent experimental data and pore-scale numerical simulations.</p>","PeriodicalId":21177,"journal":{"name":"Reviews of Geophysics","volume":"62 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":25.2,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023RG000804","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142328944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Synthetic Aperture Radar for Geosciences","authors":"Lingsheng Meng,&nbsp;Chi Yan,&nbsp;Suna Lv,&nbsp;Haiyang Sun,&nbsp;Sihan Xue,&nbsp;Quankun Li,&nbsp;Lingfeng Zhou,&nbsp;Deanna Edwing,&nbsp;Kelsea Edwing,&nbsp;Xupu Geng,&nbsp;Yiren Wang,&nbsp;Xiao-Hai Yan","doi":"10.1029/2023RG000821","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2023RG000821","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has emerged as a pivotal technology in geosciences, offering unparalleled insights into Earth's surface. Indeed, its ability to provide high-resolution, all-weather, and day-night imaging has revolutionized our understanding of various geophysical processes. Recent advancements in SAR technology, that is, developing new satellite missions, enhancing signal processing techniques, and integrating machine learning algorithms, have significantly broadened the scope and depth of geosciences. Therefore, it is essential to summarize SAR's comprehensive applications for geosciences, especially emphasizing recent advancements in SAR technologies and applications. Moreover, current SAR-related review papers have primarily focused on SAR technology or SAR imaging and data processing techniques. Hence, a review that integrates SAR technology with geophysical features is needed to highlight the significance of SAR in addressing challenges in geosciences, as well as to explore SAR's potential in solving complex geoscience problems. Spurred by these requirements, this review comprehensively and in-depth reviews SAR applications for geosciences, broadly including various aspects in air-sea dynamics, oceanography, geography, disaster and hazard monitoring, climate change, and geosciences data fusion. For each applied field, the scientific advancements produced because of SAR are demonstrated by combining the SAR techniques with characteristics of geophysical phenomena and processes. Further outlooks are also explored, such as integrating SAR data with other geophysical data and conducting interdisciplinary research to offer comprehensive insights into geosciences. With the support of deep learning, this synergy will enhance the capability to model, simulate, and forecast geophysical phenomena with greater accuracy and reliability.</p>","PeriodicalId":21177,"journal":{"name":"Reviews of Geophysics","volume":"62 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":25.2,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142123963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Developing, Testing, and Communicating Earthquake Forecasts: Current Practices and Future Directions","authors":"Leila Mizrahi,&nbsp;Irina Dallo,&nbsp;Nicholas J. van der Elst,&nbsp;Annemarie Christophersen,&nbsp;Ilaria Spassiani,&nbsp;Maximilian J. Werner,&nbsp;Pablo Iturrieta,&nbsp;José A. Bayona,&nbsp;Iunio Iervolino,&nbsp;Max Schneider,&nbsp;Morgan T. Page,&nbsp;Jiancang Zhuang,&nbsp;Marcus Herrmann,&nbsp;Andrew J. Michael,&nbsp;Giuseppe Falcone,&nbsp;Warner Marzocchi,&nbsp;David Rhoades,&nbsp;Matt Gerstenberger,&nbsp;Laura Gulia,&nbsp;Danijel Schorlemmer,&nbsp;Julia Becker,&nbsp;Marta Han,&nbsp;Lorena Kuratle,&nbsp;Michèle Marti,&nbsp;Stefan Wiemer","doi":"10.1029/2023RG000823","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2023RG000823","url":null,"abstract":"<p>While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible, earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes occurring within some region over time. To enable informed decision-making of civil protection, governmental agencies, or the public, Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) systems aim to provide authoritative earthquake forecasts based on current earthquake activity in near-real time. Establishing OEF systems involves several nontrivial choices. This review captures the current state of OEF worldwide and analyzes expert recommendations on the development, testing, and communication of earthquake forecasts. An introductory summary of OEF-related research is followed by a description of OEF systems in Italy, New Zealand, and the United States. Combined, these two parts provide an informative and transparent snapshot of today's OEF landscape. In Section 4, we analyze the results of an expert elicitation that was conducted to seek guidance for the establishment of OEF systems. The elicitation identifies consensus and dissent on OEF issues among a non-representative group of 20 international earthquake forecasting experts. While the experts agree that communication products should be developed in collaboration with the forecast user groups, they disagree on whether forecasting models and testing methods should be user-dependent. No recommendations of strict model requirements could be elicited, but benchmark comparisons, prospective testing, reproducibility, and transparency are encouraged. Section 5 gives an outlook on the future of OEF. Besides covering recent research on earthquake forecasting model development and testing, upcoming OEF initiatives are described in the context of the expert elicitation findings.</p>","PeriodicalId":21177,"journal":{"name":"Reviews of Geophysics","volume":"62 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":25.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023RG000823","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141980989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}