Spatiotemporal patterns of socioecological vulnerability in Tigray, Ethiopia: A multi-level analysis of climate and land-use change impacts on agricultural households

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia, faces mounting pressures from climate change and land cover alterations. Tigray, a region heavily reliant on agriculture, exemplifies the resulting vulnerabilities. This study investigates the socioecological vulnerability of agricultural households in Tigray, Ethiopia, to the combined pressures of climate and land-use/cover change. Employing a multi-level systemic approach, Principal Component Analysis, and a mixed effects ordered model, the research examines the spatial and temporal patterns of vulnerability and identifies key determinants. The results indicate significant spatial and temporal variations in vulnerability and its components. Ecological vulnerability varied across livelihood zones, with factors such as rainfall variability, the number of households affected by climate change-induced shocks, and deforestation serving as primary drivers, explaining approximately 46.7 % of the total variance. Livelihoods in the eastern Tigray border with Afar were more exposed and had lower ecological adaptive capacity, marking them as ecologically vulnerable hotspots. Similarly, socioecological vulnerability exhibited spatial and temporal variability, with eastern Tigray identified as a hotspot. Livelihood zones in western Tigray were also found to be highly ecologically and socially sensitive. Exposure consistently dominated sociological vulnerability. Socioeconomic factors, including land tenure insecurity, access to resources, and food security status, significantly (p-value <0.01) influenced vulnerability. The findings underscore the need for integrated interventions to address the complex interplay between ecological and social dimensions of vulnerability and build resilience among agricultural communities.