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A Risk-Based Safety Class System for Onshore Pipelines 基于风险的陆上管道安全等级系统
Risk Management Pub Date : 2022-09-26 DOI: 10.1115/ipc2022-87099
M. Nessim, M. Stephens, H. Yue
{"title":"A Risk-Based Safety Class System for Onshore Pipelines","authors":"M. Nessim, M. Stephens, H. Yue","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87099","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 A consequence-based safety class system was developed as an alternative to the class location system currently used as the basis for defining the maximum allowable hoop stress in Canadian Standard Association’s Standard Z662. The system accounts for the key pipeline, service fluid, and right-of-way parameters affecting the safety and environmental impact of releases from pipelines transporting natural gas, low- and high-vapour-pressure liquid hydrocarbons, sour gas, carbon dioxide, multiphase, and oilfield water pipelines. This paper describes the safety class system and the simplified release consequence modelling approach developed to support its implementation.\u0000 Companion papers provide more detail on the release hazard analyses used as a basis for consequence modelling, and the application of the safety class system as a basis for defining pressure design hoop stress factors that achieve acceptable and consistent public safety and environmental protection levels for all pipelines considered.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"143 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89867257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reliability-Based Self-Imposed Pressure Restriction / Derate Pressure Estimation for Corrosion and Crack 基于可靠性的腐蚀和裂纹自施加压力限制/降额压力估计
Risk Management Pub Date : 2022-09-26 DOI: 10.1115/ipc2022-87252
Jason Yan, Shenwei Zhang, Joe Saunders, C. Blackwell
{"title":"Reliability-Based Self-Imposed Pressure Restriction / Derate Pressure Estimation for Corrosion and Crack","authors":"Jason Yan, Shenwei Zhang, Joe Saunders, C. Blackwell","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87252","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87252","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Corrosion and crack anomalies are the major threats to the safety and structural integrity of oil and gas transmission pipelines. Pipeline operators commonly manage the corrosion and crack threats by regular in-line inspection.\u0000 After inspection, operators need to identify critical anomalies and plan mitigation works. Traditionally, a deterministic approach is used to assess anomalies using characteristic values of pipe properties, anomaly size, growth rate, and considering a minimum required safety factor (e.g., 1.25). TC Energy has used a full reliability-based method to determine the mitigation plan for corrosion and stress corrosion cracking (SCC) anomalies considering all the uncertainties associated with pipe geometry, material properties, anomaly size, growth rate and assessment model error explicitly. This method enables TC Energy to maintain the annual probability of failure of all known anomalies with the same location class not exceeding a consistent threshold (e.g., 1E−3 per anomaly per year).\u0000 Anomalies that do not meet the minimum safety margin (e.g., deterministic safety factor or reliability-based threshold) and cannot be mitigated timely, are usually managed by applying short-term self-imposed pressure restriction (derate). Derate pressure is typically calculated deterministically with conservative anomaly size, growth rate and a global safety factor. To account for potential parameter variation, conservative inputs often lead to conservative derate pressure. There is inconsistency between a full reliability-based mitigation plan and a deterministic short-term derate plan.\u0000 This study introduces a new efficient reliability-based approach using a Monte Carlo simulation technique to determine the derate schedule (e.g., the minimum required derate pressure for each month) to maintain the system to a consistent safety level. Two case studies, one MFL and one EMAT inspection with reported critical corrosion and crack anomalies, are conducted to demonstrate the advantage of fully reliability-based derate approach. The optimized derate plan minimizes the economical business impact to operators. The proposed framework in this study can be widely used to improve derate programs.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74618517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Geospatial Database Development: Supporting Geohazard Risk Assessments Through Real-Time Data and Geospatial Analytics 地理空间数据库开发:通过实时数据和地理空间分析支持地质灾害风险评估
Risk Management Pub Date : 2022-09-26 DOI: 10.1115/ipc2022-87139
C. Johnson, Stephen Schmidt, Justin Taylor, J. deLaChapelle
{"title":"Geospatial Database Development: Supporting Geohazard Risk Assessments Through Real-Time Data and Geospatial Analytics","authors":"C. Johnson, Stephen Schmidt, Justin Taylor, J. deLaChapelle","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87139","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 TC Energy owns and operates over 32,000 miles of natural gas pipelines within 38 states in the United States, a sizable portion of which crosses through terrain highly susceptible to geologic hazards. To better support geohazard risk management, TC Energy has implemented a customized web-based geohazard platform (GeoForce) to identify, inventory, and track geohazards across their U.S. pipeline system. The platform was built within the Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) ArcGIS Enterprise environment and leverages a diverse amount of ESRI product offerings. The platform is hosted on ArcGIS Portal and includes multiple custom apps and dashboards which allow users to efficiently view, summarize, add, and update geohazard data. Another key component of the system is a connection to ArcGIS GeoEvent Server. GeoEvent Server allows for the delivery of near real-time geohazard threat notifications through emails and dashboards (i.e., seismic events, flooding, precipitation). The notifications also provide detailed information for the sections of the system affected by the event, and in the case of a seismic event, a suggested course of action in alignment with TC Energy procedures. ArcGIS Image Server was leveraged to host over 4 terabytes of LiDAR imagery which can be used in concert with the other geohazard datasets present in the database. Custom geospatial scripts were also developed to create a near real-time link between the GeoForce master database and TC Energy’s master data mart, asset information, regulatory, and other organizational data. These scripts flag and report where spatial and/or attribute data have changed or may no longer be valid and therefore require follow-up action to support risk management (e.g., when pipelines are abandoned, HCAs are updated, or pipe properties are updated). The scripts also store the centerline attribute changes in a table for further review to identify potential trends. The GeoForce database is also built as a launching platform for proactive analytics, and eventually predictive analytics for critical precipitation thresholds for landslide risk management, landslide susceptibility mapping, system-wide risk scoring, seismic events and ILI bending strain coincident with geohazards. Details related to the threat alerts that are issued by the geospatial system are stored and visualized in a PowerBI integration. With the incorporation of ArcGIS Notebook Server, algorithms will be developed that will review the historical threat repository that is being generated and issue threat alerts based on probability of a hazardous event occurring in proximity of the pipeline system.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79122683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Methodologies for Conversion of New Natural Gas Pipelines to Hydrogen Service in North America 北美新天然气管道转换为氢气服务的方法
Risk Management Pub Date : 2022-09-26 DOI: 10.1115/ipc2022-87316
K. Olsen, G. Shulhan, Pietro Di Zanno
{"title":"Methodologies for Conversion of New Natural Gas Pipelines to Hydrogen Service in North America","authors":"K. Olsen, G. Shulhan, Pietro Di Zanno","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87316","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87316","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 There is an increased interest in the production and use of hydrogen by various industries (utilities, refining, petrochemical, transportation) over the last three years. Applications run from monetizing the molecule for its chemical as well as for its heating and combustion properties, in boilers and fuel cells.\u0000 As hydrogen projects begin to scale-up across the world, the best distribution solution is via pipelines, even within present natural gas distribution and transmission pipeline systems. A project’s upper hydrogen blending limit will be dictated by the natural gas pipeline owner’s excess driver, compression, and pipeline flow capacities. In this paper we consider a project whereby a greenfield 100% natural gas pipeline would be designed for future conversion to blended natural gas - hydrogen operation and possibly even to 100% hydrogen use. Material selection would have to meet stringent guidelines, including dual certification to ASME B31.8 Gas Transmission and Piping Systems / ASME B31.12 Hydrogen Piping and Pipelines in the US and CSA Z662 Oil and Gas Pipelines / ASME B31.12 in Canada. In addition, the integrity management strategy should be tailored to provide sufficient information for an engineering assessment that maximizes the chances of regulatory acceptance with minimal effort. In this paper, we outline anticipated advisory services for regulatory, engineering, construction support, and integrity management to increase the validity of the service conversion application. Cost differences between natural gas only and hydrogen-ready infrastructure are summarized, including strategies for low-stress design, selection of pipe material grade and wall thickness, and metallurgical considerations for welding, fracture toughness, hydrogen embrittlement and fatigue life management. Finally, additional cost considerations are explored regarding integrity management program development costs, environment and engineering permitting, and consultation.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85397258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Performance of Twelve Different Equations of State for Natural Gas and Hydrogen Blends 12种不同状态方程对天然气和氢气混合物的性能
Risk Management Pub Date : 2022-09-26 DOI: 10.1115/ipc2022-86297
K. Botros, L. Jensen
{"title":"Performance of Twelve Different Equations of State for Natural Gas and Hydrogen Blends","authors":"K. Botros, L. Jensen","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-86297","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-86297","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The aspiration for blending hydrogen (H2) into natural gas (NG) in gas transmission systems is high and is happening globally. However, the principal properties of the blended mixtures and their thermodynamic derivatives can significantly vary depending on the Equation of State (EOS) employed. There is a need to arrive at the best performing EOS for the prediction of the blended mixtures from low to high concentration of H2 in the blend with NG. Twelve different EOS were evaluated against measured data found in the open literature of pure H2, binary mixtures with alkanes and mixtures with NG. Three measured properties were found, namely density, speed of sound and isobaric heat capacity (Cp) in the range of pressures up to 50 MPa and temperatures in the range of −20°C to +80°C and H2 concentration up to 88%(mole). The total number of measured data points are 629 for pure H2 and 1788 for Binaries and NG mixtures with H2.\u0000 Performance of each EOS is based on the average of the absolute error (deviation%) between predicted vs. measured parameters. These were: density, which represents the principal performance of the EOS with respect the basic formulation of P, ρ and T, the speed of sound, which represents a thermodynamic derivative with respect to entropy, and isobaric heat capacity which represents a thermodynamic derivative with respect to enthalpy. All other thermodynamic derivatives can be related to these three parameters (e.g., J.T coefficient, isochoric heat capacity, enthalpy, internal energy,, compressibility factor and Helmholtz and Gibbs free energies, etc.). Transport properties predictions are based on other empirical and semi-empirical correlations that are independent of the EOS and hence were not considered. It was found that, for the most part and for pure H2, GERG2008 EOS performed best in predicting the above three principal parameters followed by AGA8. For Binary and NG mixtures with H2, again GERG2008 was found to be the best performing EOS for all ranges of P and T, while the second-best performer is BWRS in the range of 0.1–3 MPa and AGA8 in the range of 3–25 MPa, respectively.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84637210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Finite Element Analysis of Cold Field Bends for Sour Service Applications 酸工况冷场弯头有限元分析
Risk Management Pub Date : 2022-09-26 DOI: 10.1115/ipc2022-83791
Ismael Ripoll, C. Sicilia, K. Williams
{"title":"Finite Element Analysis of Cold Field Bends for Sour Service Applications","authors":"Ismael Ripoll, C. Sicilia, K. Williams","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-83791","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-83791","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In onshore pipelines, cold field bends are regularly used for planned and in-situ pipeline route adjustments. The cold field bending operation consists of curving permanently a straight pipe until the desired change of alignment is achieved. The bends are achieved by locally bending the pipe against a die using a pipe bending machine. Bending against the die imposes a transversal plastic deformation over a short distance, many such local deformations are made to form the required cold field bend. Thus, cold field bends experience plastic strains from the formation process and residual stresses are left in the finished product.\u0000 The onshore pipeline industry typically disregards residual stresses from cold bending as these are difficult to evaluate; mainly, because the main pipeline stress software packages used by the industry do not capture them. This empirical approach has provided a good record of pipeline service reliability for many years; although, international codes such as ASME B31.8 transfer the ultimate responsibility to determine whether such stresses should be evaluated to engineers (projects).\u0000 For applications in sour service environments, where additional plasticity during operation generally needs to be avoided, the influence of these residual stresses may be significant, and the robustness of the current practice should be considered.\u0000 In this context, this paper presents a comparative finite element analysis (FEA) using ABAQUS to evaluate the impact of the residual stresses from cold field bending on the overall stress state during operation. Analyses are performed using a representative single 14″ × 19.05mm × 80D × 14.7° cold field bend which is buried in a non-cohesive soil. To bound the range of local curvatures that the bend has to withstand during the formation process, models are run with a bend uniformly bent to 52D which relaxes to 80D, and a bend with 24 short sections bent to 17D (die radius) which relaxes to an average of 80D with a non-constant curvature along the bend length. To capture the impact of the type of element over the ovalisation and capture the influence of the residual longitudinal and hoop stresses, models are run with pipe, elbow and shell element models.\u0000 Based on the results of these analyses, this paper recommends additional modelling and testing requirements for cold field bends for more sensitive applications such as sour service. These requirements intend to complement the approach currently adopted by the industry and ensure the fitness for service of cold field bends.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90180161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Full-Scale Coating Abrasion Test to Supplement Laboratory Testing 全尺寸涂层磨损试验作为实验室试验的补充
Risk Management Pub Date : 2022-09-26 DOI: 10.1115/ipc2022-87106
David B. Futch, Davide D‘Ambrosio
{"title":"Full-Scale Coating Abrasion Test to Supplement Laboratory Testing","authors":"David B. Futch, Davide D‘Ambrosio","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87106","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Laboratory coating qualifications often require determining the ability of the coating to resist abrasion and gouging. These tests help inform a pipeline operator on the coating’s ability in extreme conditions, often those that may be required during a horizontal directional drill (HDD) when specifying an abrasion resistant overcoat (ARO) would be considered. However, these laboratory bench-top tests subject the coating to subscale loading that typically is not of the magnitude that can be experienced during pipeline construction.\u0000 An HDD is a trenchless pipeline installation method where a pipeline is pulled through a pilot hole and is likely to increase in popularly over the coming decades as current pipeline right of ways become more congested and urban sprawl increases. As HDDs increase, their construction will be pushed to the extreme: longer distances, larger/heavier pipe, and through more challenging formations. Drilling through more challenging formations, such as granite, will subject additional abrasion and gouging to the pipe coating. Therefore, there remains a need to supplement traditional laboratory bench-top testing with a full-scale alternative that more closely represents the abrasion and gouging risk experienced during an HDD.\u0000 This paper provides an overview of common subscale abrasion testing as well as the newly developed, innovative full-scale test. This full-scale test was designed to subject a pipe sample and ARO coating to varying obstructions pneumatically engaged against the outside pipe/coating surface. Obstructions utilized during this test development included: (1) a granite block selected to represent a natural formation, (2) a round tip selected to represent wear, and (3) carbide-tipped machining inserts selected to simulate aggressive gouging. Applying larger loads pneumatically to each obstruction simulates higher loading during an HDD — either due to a longer pull, heavier pipe, or variations in drilling mud/ballast. Finally, this paper will review industry accepted HDD load calculations providing a selection chart to determine the thickness of an applied ARO sacrificial overwrap.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90526351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Risk-Based Hoop Stress Factors for Pressure Design 基于风险的压力设计环向应力因子
Risk Management Pub Date : 2022-09-26 DOI: 10.1115/ipc2022-86815
R. Adianto, M. Nessim, Balek Ngandu
{"title":"Risk-Based Hoop Stress Factors for Pressure Design","authors":"R. Adianto, M. Nessim, Balek Ngandu","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-86815","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-86815","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 A risk-based pressure design approach has been developed as an alternative to the class location approach currently used in the Canadian Standard Association’s (CSA’s) Standard Z662. Similar to the current approach, the new approach uses a set of hoop stress factors to calculate the minimum wall thickness from the pressure, diameter, and specified minimum yield strength. The hoop stress factors, termed class factors, are calibrated to keep the failure probability below an allowable value for the limit states representing burst of undamaged pipe under the operating pressure and failure due to equipment impact loading. Yielding under the strength test pressure is addressed as a separate limit on the class factor. To achieve a consistent safety level for all pipelines, the allowable failure probabilities are inversely proportional to the magnitude of failure consequences, as implied by a safety class determined according to the approach described in a companion IPC paper.\u0000 This paper describes the calibration process used to define the class factors and provides a comparison between the wall thicknesses resulting from the risk-based approach and those obtained from the current hoop stress factors in CSA Z662.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"2016 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87823177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Probabilistic Corrosion Assessment for Natural Gas Storage Wells 天然气储气井的概率腐蚀评价
Risk Management Pub Date : 2022-09-26 DOI: 10.1115/ipc2022-86794
B. Ayton, T. Dessein, A. Fraser, Mari Shironishi, Travis Sera, Daniel Shapiro
{"title":"Probabilistic Corrosion Assessment for Natural Gas Storage Wells","authors":"B. Ayton, T. Dessein, A. Fraser, Mari Shironishi, Travis Sera, Daniel Shapiro","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-86794","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-86794","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Regulations for gas storage wells require that operators perform initial and subsequent mechanical integrity evaluations as determined using risk assessment [1], incorporated by reference in 49 CFR 192.12 for U.S. operators [2]. As a well ages, metal loss on the casing can grow, increasing the probability of a failure from corrosion. Inspection and repair programs manage this probability by reducing uncertainty in the casing condition and repairing significant metal loss anomalies. However, performing a casing inspection involves a considerable amount of risk, which can vary depending on the well configuration [3]. The benefit of inspection and repair needs to be balanced with the inspection risk to determine the interval that minimizes the overall risk. This paper demonstrates that if detailed information about a well’s configuration, loading, and existing corrosion population is considered, a probabilistic corrosion analysis can be completed to determine a reinspection date that minimizes the overall risk of a release.\u0000 A probabilistic implementation of the Level II analysis found in API 579 Fitness-For-Service is described and recommended for these assessments [4]. The deterministic version of this model is the most accurate for predicting burst pressures of casings with metal loss under a wide range of loading conditions [5].\u0000 The measurement error of inspection tools and their reporting thresholds relative to typical corrosion rates presents many challenges in calculating corrosion rates deterministically. Calculating unrealistically high growth rates and apparent negative growth rates using inspection data is common. Using the tool measurement error and the distribution of calculated growth rates across several wells, a Bayesian updating approach is described, grouping anomalies in similar environments to develop credible growth rate distributions specific to each joint on a well.\u0000 This paper provides several assessments of realistic storage well configurations and corrosion populations to demonstrate how the probabilistic corrosion assessment can determine an inspection interval that minimizes the overall risk and ultimately inform integrity maintenance plans on a well-by-well basis. The examples span a wide range of well conditions to illustrate that the optimal inspection and repair program depends on each well’s configuration, loading, and existing corrosion population. The effect of a corrosion anomaly’s depth in the well and the cement quality on the expected release rate and the resulting risk is also examined.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88280758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Subset Simulation of Pipeline Corrosion, Crack, and Dent Defects Considering Multiple Limit States With Large-Scale Validation 考虑多极限状态的管道腐蚀、裂纹和凹痕缺陷子集模拟及大规模验证
Risk Management Pub Date : 2022-09-26 DOI: 10.1115/ipc2022-87255
Daryl Bandstra, A. Fraser, Juan S. Rojas
{"title":"Subset Simulation of Pipeline Corrosion, Crack, and Dent Defects Considering Multiple Limit States With Large-Scale Validation","authors":"Daryl Bandstra, A. Fraser, Juan S. Rojas","doi":"10.1115/ipc2022-87255","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1115/ipc2022-87255","url":null,"abstract":"Structural reliability is an engineering method that focuses on the calculation and prediction of the probability of failure for a structural system. Structural reliability is used by many pipeline operators to assess the probability of failure, and these probability of failure estimates are then used to manage safety, environmental, and operational risks for threats such as corrosion, cracking, and third-party damage. In the structural reliability approach, the probability of failure is obtained from a multi-dimensional integral, for which the solution is commonly estimated numerically using Direct Monte Carlo (DMC) simulation. DMC is straight-forward and robust but requires a significant amount of computational effort to estimate small probabilities, which are typical of threats to pipeline integrity. Subset Simulation is an approach that improves on the efficiency issues of DMC by representing the rare event probability as the product of a number of more frequent events, which are each estimated separately. Previous work published at IPC in 2020 by Bandstra and Fraser [1] showed very close agreement between DMC and Subset Simulation for a single defect reference case with a single limit state. This study extends that initial work by applying Subset Simulation to various failure models for a variety of pipeline defects. Subset Simulation is applied to the CSA corrosion model, PRCI MAT-8 crack model, and the EPRG dent failure model, and the performance is evaluated by comparing the results to DMC. For each of these comparisons, simulations are performed across a large-scale grid of validation cases that consider a range of pipeline and defect sizes. An approach that utilizes Subset Simulation to handle multiple limit states is also presented and applied for relevant failure models and the results are evaluated against DMC.","PeriodicalId":21327,"journal":{"name":"Risk Management","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87107985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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