pure and applied geophysics最新文献

{"title":"Lightning Forecasting in Pre-Monsoon Season Using Non-Linear Autoregressive Artificial Neural Network","authors":"Prabhat Kumar Upadhyay,&nbsp;Arun K. Dwivedi,&nbsp;Rohit Kumar","doi":"10.1007/s00024-024-03654-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-024-03654-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Lightning is one of the most beautiful and dangerous phenomena in nature. It is an interesting and undetermined area of research in which information is vaguely defined. It has excellent potential to produce severe damage to living bodies and properties. The process of lightning is generally dependent on different meteorological parameters. The main objective of this study is to apply the concept of a nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs to an artificial neural network model (NARX-ANN) and predict the afternoon lightning in the pre-monsoon season. For this purpose, three meteorological parameters, namely atmospheric temperature (AT), relative humidity (RH), and stability parameter (z/L), have been taken as inputs to the proposed model. The performance of the model was evaluated on pre-monsoon data with prediction accuracy of 96.14%. Furthermore, results obtained from the seven skill scores have been evaluated, where False Alarm Rate (FAR) and Miss Rate (MR) were found near to zero. The result shows that the NARX-ANN model has minimum prediction errors and can be considered a suitable method for forecasting lightning.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 4","pages":"1783 - 1798"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143883692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-Term Impacts of Aerosols on the Cloud, Temperature, and Rainfall Over the North–East Monsoon Region","authors":"Sanjay Kumar Mehta,&nbsp;Aravindavel Ananthavel","doi":"10.1007/s00024-025-03657-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-025-03657-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study analyses the long-term variation of the aerosol properties at the surface using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) including temperature from radiosonde observations and rainfall during 2001–2018 and within the boundary layer (BL) and free troposphere (FT) using Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) during 2007–2018 over Kattankulathur (12.82^oN, 80.04^oE) in the northeast monsoon region. Before estimating the trend using multiple regression analysis, semiannual, annual, and various interannual components are identified using the empirical mode decomposition analysis and removed from the monthly mean data. The relationship between the monthly mean aerosol optical depth (AOD), cloud fraction (CF), cloud top height (CTH), and cloud albedo indicates the dominance of the semi-indirect effect over Kattankulathur. The aerosol-cloud interaction was found to be positive at the liquid water path (LWP) of 40–80 g/m², and 160–200 g/m² while negative at 80–140 g/m². The long-term trend of the AOD and Angstrom exponent is found to increase at a rate of 0.14 ± 0.07 and 0.122 ± 0.04 per decade. Similarly, the cloud parameters CER (CF) are found to be decreasing (increasing) at a rate of − 0.06 ± 0.0013 μm (0.12 ± 0.09 μm) per decade over the period 2001–2018. The long-term increase in the AOD results in a decrease (increase) in BL (FT) temperature indicating the increasing aerosol load causing the surface dimming.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 2","pages":"843 - 858"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Novel Optimal Staggered Grid Finite Difference Scheme Based on Gram–Schmidt Procedure for Acoustic Wave Modelling","authors":"Min Zhang,&nbsp;Liming Zhou,&nbsp;Daiguang Fu,&nbsp;Shiqi Dong,&nbsp;Haibo Wu","doi":"10.1007/s00024-024-03652-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-024-03652-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The staggered grid finite difference method is used extensively in numerical simulations of acoustic equations; however, its application is accompanied by numerical dispersion. The most representative traditional method for suppressing the numerical dispersion is the Taylor expansion method, which primarily converts the acoustic equation into a polynomial equation of the trigonometric function and subsequently expands the trigonometric function into a power function polynomial through the Taylor expansion to finally obtain the difference coefficient. However, this traditional method is only applicable to the small wavenumber range. In this study, the Gram–Schmidt orthogonalization method, combined with the binomial theorem and Euler formula was used to reverse the polynomial of power function into a polynomial of trigonometric function and to obtain a new difference coefficient. To highlight the effectiveness of the proposed method, it was compared with the Taylor expansion method (TEM) and the least-squares method (LSM) by selecting a small wavenumber, middle wavenumber, and wide wavenumber ranges. Accuracy and dispersion analyses were conducted. The results showed that the new difference coefficient generated smaller errors and induced stronger suppression of the numerical dispersion. A comparative analysis of the uniform and complex models further validated the superiority of the proposed staggered grid difference coefficient.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 1","pages":"271 - 287"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143480999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction: Assessing the Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought in Afghanistan","authors":"Gokmen Tayfur,&nbsp;Ehsanullah Hayat,&nbsp;Mir Jafar Sadegh Safari","doi":"10.1007/s00024-024-03650-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-024-03650-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 1","pages":"309 - 309"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143480998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projecting and Downscaling Future Temperature and Precipitation Based on CMIP6 Models Using Machine Learning in Hatay Province, Türkiye","authors":"Mustafa Ozbuldu,&nbsp;Ahmet Irvem","doi":"10.1007/s00024-024-03656-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-024-03656-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Projections for future changes in precipitation and temperature are essential for decision-makers to understand climate change impacts on any region in the world. General circulation models (GCMs) are widely used tools to assess the future impacts of climate change. However, since they are produced at global scales, they cannot provide reliable information at local scales. For this reason, downscaling applications have been applied in recent years. In this study, support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), and multiple linear regression (MLR) methods were evaluated to improve the forecast accuracy of EC-EARTH3 CMIP6 GCM outputs for the Hatay province of Türkiye. The results obtained from the models were compared with meteorological observation data on a monthly time scale. As a result of the study, RF (RMSE = 19.19–45.41) for precipitation projections and SVR for maximum temperature (RMSE = 1.49–2.23) and minimum temperature (RMSE = 1.44–1.69) projections were found successful compared to other methods. These methods were applied to GCM’s future outputs. According to the results, it was determined that there could be a significant increase in the annual average temperature in Hatay province under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. It is also estimated that there may be an increase in temperature between 2.1 and 2.9 °C for the SSP2-4.5 scenario and 2.4 °C and 5.2 °C for the SSP5-8.5 scenario in the near (2020–2060) and far (2060–2100) future periods, respectively. It is also estimated that by the end of the 21st century, annual precipitation in Hatay province may decrease by approximately 10% for SSP2-4.5 and by approximately 20% for SSP5-8.5 scenarios.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 4","pages":"1825 - 1842"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00024-024-03656-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143883624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimation of the Gutenberg-Richter Seismic Hazard Parameters: A Way to Take into Account Isolated Earthquakes—Application to the Alps Domain","authors":"Anne Dutfoy","doi":"10.1007/s00024-024-03655-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-024-03655-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Depending on the time period and geographical location, the collection of seismic data has been more or less exhaustive and systematic. Thus, seismic catalogues contain some isolated seismic events. This information is usually excluded from the inference process of the recurrence model. In this paper, we assume that earthquakes are modelled by a stationary Poisson point process, under the Gutenberg-Richter assumption. We propose a way to take that information into account by adapting the expression of the likelihood of the Poisson point process. In addition, we consider that the completeness magnitude varies in time.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 1","pages":"29 - 44"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143480899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dispersion Analysis of Generalized Wave Equations Under the Single-Parameter Second-Order Strain Gradient Theory","authors":"Chaopu Chen,&nbsp;Wenlei Bai,&nbsp;Hong Liu,&nbsp;Zhiyang Wang,&nbsp;Youming Li","doi":"10.1007/s00024-024-03653-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-024-03653-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In the field of seismic exploration, scholars have been working to conduct wave propagation models that are close to physical reality. Researches for high-speed rail seismology show that the microstructural interactions by different scales will trigger the heterogeneous response of the medium, which in turn has an impact on the mechanical behavior of macro-scales. The generalized wave equations enhance the ability to reflect the heterogeneity of the medium by introducing the higher derivative of displacement and the characteristic scale parameters related to the microstructural properties of the medium. In this paper, we introduce the generalized wave equations under the single-parameter second-order strain gradient theory by considering the nonlocal effects, give the decoupled generalized wave equations using the Helmholtz decomposition theorem, and derive the expression of the phase-velocity of the P- and S-wave. Then, we investigate the dispersion characteristics of seismic wave propagation by considering the microstructural interactions in the medium utilizing theoretical dispersion analysis and numerical experiments which can provide a new approach for the establishment and interpretation of wave propagation models under actual medium.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 4","pages":"1697 - 1711"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143883622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Microzonation Through Seismic and Geotechnical Vulnerability Assessment: Recommendation of Foundation Selection Guidelines for the Srinagar Metropolitan Region","authors":"Falak Zahoor,&nbsp;K. Seshagiri Rao,&nbsp;Neelima Satyam","doi":"10.1007/s00024-024-03644-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-024-03644-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The paper presents the microzonation of Srinagar Metropolitan Region (SMR) located in the Himalayas which is exposed to a high level of seismic risk due to its critical tectonic setting. In an effort to improvise the microzonation process for the region, seismic hazard assessment has been combined with geotechnical vulnerability estimation to define vulnerability zones. An integrated hazard index (<i>IHI</i>), indicative of the vulnerability of a site, was estimated by combining a bearing capacity hazard index and a liquefaction hazard index for each site. Based on the value of <i>IHI</i>, four vulnerability zones viz. VZ-A (<i>IHI</i> &lt; 0.15), VZ-B (<i>IHI</i> 0.15–0.30), VZ-C (<i>IHI</i> 0.30–0.55), and VZ-D (<i>IHI</i> &gt; 0.55), representing low to high vulnerability, have been defined for the region. Subsequently, hilly areas in the region were categorised as VZ-A; floodplains as VZ-C,D; and Karewa highlands as VZ-B,C. General guidelines have been recommended for the selection of appropriate foundations and ground improvement techniques within these zones. The proposed approach models an application of microzonation as a direct input for the design of foundations of structures and intends to complement the Master-Plan 2035 for the ongoing urban development in the SMR.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 1","pages":"79 - 105"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143480904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Peculiar Variations and Long-term Changes in Sea Level Observed in the Lanzarote Geosciences Laboratory (Canary Islands, Spain)","authors":"M. Benavent,&nbsp;J. Arnoso,&nbsp;E. J. Vélez,&nbsp;F. G. Montesinos,&nbsp;U. Tammaro,&nbsp;U. Riccardi","doi":"10.1007/s00024-024-03638-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-024-03638-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We use tide gauge data spanning from 2005 to 2023 in the Geosciences Laboratory at Lanzarote (Canary Islands, Spain) to perform a detailed analysis of the local short and long-term changes not previously examined in this area. Sea level is affected by the spatial and temporal climate variability on annual to decadal time scales. Consequently, the analysis of the linear trends of sea level can be difficult even when long time series are available. To achieve this objective, we investigate multi-year (from 3 to 10 years) and decadal variations of sea level through its connection with climate indexes such as the sea surface temperature, the sunspots or the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). First, we apply the standard corrections for the ocean tides, the atmospheric dynamics and the interannual and seasonal variability of the observed time series. Second, we study the sea level changes at multi-year to decadal scales by applying the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform for the decomposition of the sea level signal. Furthermore, the correlations between the sea level and complementary data (sea water temperature, sunspot number and NAO Index) are investigated by means of the cross-wavelet and wavelet coherence methods. Finally, we perform a linear regression analysis of the sea level changes with the sea water temperature, including periodic components, to model the observed sea level data. Jointly with the tide gauge data, the sea level is monitored using a GNSS permanent station co-located with the tide gauge site. The study of both time series (sea level and vertical ground displacement), after removal of the previously modelled tidal and non-tidal components, provides the long-term linear trend for the complete period, from 2005 to 2023: an increase of 0.33 ± 0.06 cm/yr for the sea level and an increase of about 0.016 ± 0.003 cm/yr for GNSS-vertical displacement.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 3","pages":"961 - 985"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00024-024-03638-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143818142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhanced Earth and Rockfill Dam Seepage Forecasting via an Integrated PLS-BO-BiLSTM Approach: A Novel Model Incorporating Lag Effects and Optimization Algorithms","authors":"Zhiwen Xie,&nbsp;Liang Chen","doi":"10.1007/s00024-024-03625-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00024-024-03625-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Seepage significantly impacts the stability of earth and rockfill dams, making effective monitoring essential. This research introduces a novel PLS-BO-BiLSTM model that integrates Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression with Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) networks and Bayesian Optimization (BO). The model is further optimized using Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO) to account for the lag effects of water depth and precipitation. The novelty of the model lies in its ability to effectively address multicollinearity while improving the prediction of nonlinear time-series data in complex seepage scenarios. Key results from multiple engineering case studies demonstrate the model’s high predictive accuracy (<span>({textrm{R}}^{2} &gt; 0.98)</span>), significantly reducing mean absolute errors and showing strong generalizability during sudden seepage events caused by heavy rainfall. These findings highlight the practical utility of the model for real-world dam safety monitoring.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":21078,"journal":{"name":"pure and applied geophysics","volume":"182 2","pages":"667 - 683"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}