{"title":"Regulatory Cycles: Revisiting the Political Economy of Financial Crises","authors":"Jihad Dagher","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2772373","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2772373","url":null,"abstract":"Financial crises are usually perceived and analyzed as purely economic phenomena. The political economy of financial booms and busts, while far from ignored, remains under-emphasized and has mostly been analyzed in isolated episodes. The recent wave of financial crises has brought unprecedented attention to financial regulatory policy; yet the policy discussions and economic literature, which are usually cast in technical terms, tend to overlook political forces that shape regulations and impact their effectiveness over time. The narrative usually revolves around the fact that financial innovations are ahead of regulators. This paper examines the political economy of financial policy during some of the most infamous financial booms and busts and finds consistent evidence of pro-cyclical policies by governments. Financial booms, and risk-taking during these episodes, were often amplified, if not ignited, by political regulatory stimuli and interventions. The bust has always resulted in an overhaul of the regulatory and supervisory framework and a political turnover. The interplay between politics and financial policy over these cycles, and their institutional underpinnings, deserve further attention. History suggests that politics can be the undoing of macro-prudential regulations.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84577812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Financial Contagion: A New Perspective (and a New Test)","authors":"Matteo Cominetta","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3139029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3139029","url":null,"abstract":"Contagion has mostly been interpreted and tested as a break from a stable linear correlation of financial markets caused by an extraordinary shock. This paper argues that quantile regression can provide a tool to investigate alterations in other features of financial returns’ distribution caused by extraordinary shocks, thus providing additional understanding of the mechanism of financial shock propagation and its instability. Applying the technique to stock market returns, we find evidence that jumps in uncertainty have powerful contagious effects of a form different from an increase in markets’ correlation. These effects would not be detectable in standard contagion tests that search for increases in market correlation.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83348768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
B. Jankowska, Katarzyna Mroczek-Dąbrowska, M. Gorynia, M. Dzikowska
{"title":"Are Firms in Corporate Groups More Resilient during an Economic Crisis? Evidence from the Manufacturing Sector in Poland","authors":"B. Jankowska, Katarzyna Mroczek-Dąbrowska, M. Gorynia, M. Dzikowska","doi":"10.7341/20161241","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7341/20161241","url":null,"abstract":"Corporate groups are specific types of business networks that generate particular advantages for firms. They allow corporates to reduce costs, develop the pool of resources and increase the flexibility of operations and responses to external shocks among others. The above mentioned benefits are of even greater importance during times of economic turbulence. Their involvement in a corporate group should theoretically allow firms to perform better. The aim of this study is to verify whether corporate group membership truly translated into a firm’s higher input competitiveness and a firm’s better performance during the recent economic crisis. First, we try to investigate if the input competitiveness is higher in the case of firms being members of corporate groups. Second, we test whether the involvement in a corporate group matters for the performance of the firms. Using critical in-depth literature studies and conducting the primary empirical research using the CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviewing) method we strive to verify the following hypothesis - the higher a company’s input competitiveness during the economic crisis, the better a competitive position the company achieves. The empirical research encompasses more than 700 corporates from the manufacturing sector in Poland during the global economic crisis and shortly afterwards. To investigate the issue we use the following methods of statistical analysis – cluster analysis, non-parametric tests and correlation coefficients. The results of the study show that firms involved in both Polish and international corporate groups were more resilient during the economic crisis than those which were not.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73296677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Minimum Wage and the Great Recession: Evidence from the Current Population Survey","authors":"Jeffrey Clemens","doi":"10.3386/w21830","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w21830","url":null,"abstract":"I analyze recent federal minimum wage increases using the Current Population Survey. The relevant minimum wage increases were differentially binding across states, generating natural comparison groups. I first estimate a standard difference-in-differences model on samples restricted to relatively low-skilled individuals, as described by their ages and education levels. I also employ a triple-difference framework that utilizes continuous variation in the minimum wage's bite across skill groups. In both frameworks, estimates are robust to adopting a range of alternative strategies, including matching on the size of states' housing declines, to account for variation in the Great Recession's severity across states. My baseline estimate is that this period's full set of minimum wage increases reduced employment among individuals ages 16 to 30 with less than a high school education by 5.6 percentage points. This estimate accounts for 43 percent of the sustained, 13 percentage point decline in this skill group's employment rate and a 0.49 percentage point decline in employment across the full population ages 16 to 64.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73109187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Income Distribution and Economic Crises","authors":"B. Neyapti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2698582","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2698582","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the relationship between income distribution and the severity of economic crises, where the severity is measured by the length and the depth of the recessions. Using an extensive panel dataset on income distribution and employing an event study framework, we find significant evidence that there is a negative association between the prevailing degree of income inequality and the severity of the recessions. In the case of high income countries that have bad income distribution, however, recessions are observed to be longer than the average. This observation is likely to result from the combination of the strong status-quo bias of the financially powerful income groups and the available means to redistribute towards the poor so as to help mitigate the pressures for reforms to improve income distribution via creative destruction. The longer period of recessions observed in developed countries than in less developed countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession is in support of this argument. The findings also reveal that recessions tend to be longer during the decade of the 1990s than the rest of the period studied. The evidence regarding the corrective effect on the recessions of accommodative fiscal or monetary policy stance, measured by the size of the government and the inflation rate, is observed to be only barely significant on average. With regard to the impact of recessions on income distribution, the evidence in the paper indicates that the post-crises income distribution worsens significantly with the length but improves with the depth of the preceding recession. We also note that, in addition to the persistence effect, the lack of monetary discipline worsens income distribution in the postcrises period significantly.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85989108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An Agent-Based Model for Crisis Liquidity Dynamics","authors":"Richard M. Bookstaber, M. Paddrik","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2664230","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2664230","url":null,"abstract":"Financial crises are often characterized by sharp reductions in liquidity followed by cascades of falling prices. Researchers are making progress in work to understand the levels of liquidity on a daily basis, but understanding the vulnerability of liquidity to market shocks remains a challenge. We develop an agent-based model with the objective of evaluating the market dynamics that lead the market supply of liquidity to recede during periods of crisis. The model uses a limit-order-book framework to examine the interaction of three types of traditional market agents: liquidity demanders, liquidity suppliers, and market makers. The paper highlights the implications of changes in market makers' ability to provide intermediation services and the heterogeneous decision cycles of liquidity demanders versus liquidity suppliers for crisis-induced illiquidity.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"81 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81808467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Mobile Collateral Versus Immobile Collateral","authors":"Gary B. Gorton, Tyler Muir","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2638886","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2638886","url":null,"abstract":"In the face of the Lucas Critique, economic history can be used to evaluate policy. We use the experience of the U.S. National Banking Era to evaluate the most important bank regulation to emerge from the financial crisis, the Bank for International Settlement's liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) which requires that (net) short-term (uninsured) bank debt (e.g. repo) be backed one-for-one with U.S. Treasuries (or other high quality bonds). The rule is narrow banking. The experience of the U.S. National Banking Era, which also required that bank short-term debt be backed by Treasury debt one-for-one, suggests that the LCR is unlikely to reduce financial fragility and may increase it.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89036067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Restructuring and Forgiveness in Financial Crises C: The Swedish Banking Crisis of 1990-1994","authors":"C. McNamara, Lars H. Thunell, Andrew Metrick","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2723501","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2723501","url":null,"abstract":"In the Spring of 1992 the Swedish government faced a dilemma. The country was in the midst of an economic downturn stemming from the collapse of asset prices (especially in real estate) that had spiked as a result of a credit boom that followed the deregulation of the Swedish banking system in the mid-1980s. Initially the impact of the downturn on the country’s banks had seemed to be limited to a small number of specific firms that the government moved to assist on an ad hoc basis in 1991. However, evidence was mounting that the banking crisis was reaching a systemic level. Guided by such principles as the need for broad political consensus, prompt action, transparency, and the imposition of strict conditions including shareholder losses in exchange for support, the Swedish government crafted a response centered around a blanket guarantee of all bank liabilities, an immediate recognition of all bank losses, support for banks that was based on each bank’s specific financial condition and prospects, and the use of asset management companies to resolve the troubled assets of struggling banks. This approach, coupled with an improving economy, helped restore the Swedish banking system to profitability by 1995. While the fact that the Swedish banking sector of the early 1990s was much less complex than most major financial systems today cautions against drawing any firm conclusion about the appropriateness of deploying specific Swedish policy responses in new crises, the various principles that guided the Swedish response could well be of interest in addressing future systemic events.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"87 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87409062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Platon Monokroussos, Theodoros G. Stamatiou, S. Gogos
{"title":"GRexit and Why It Will Not Happen: Catastrophic for Greece and Destabilizing for the Euro","authors":"Platon Monokroussos, Theodoros G. Stamatiou, S. Gogos","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2616278","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2616278","url":null,"abstract":"Severe cash constraints faced by the Greek Government due to a pretty demanding schedule of interest and amortization payments in the second half of 2015 have engineered a new explosion of sovereign bond spreads and rekindled fears of a GRexit down the road. Such fears have been exacerbated further in late April 2015 as the progress in implementing the February 20th 2015 Eurogroup agreement has proven to be rather slow and the cash-strapped Greek Government was struggling to meet sizeable debt service obligations. As a result, media reports had been speculating on a number of disastrous scenarios, ranging from the imposition of capital controls or the payment of civil servants and various state suppliers with promissory notes to a sovereign default, either within or outside the Economic and Monetary Union. This paper refrains from analyzing the legal and technical complications involved in the materialization of any of the aforementioned scenarios. Instead, it leans on purely economic and political economy considerations to argue that calls for exit are ill advised, potentially involving immense risks not only for Greece, but also for the EMU project as a whole. We take a close look at Greece’s past history of drachma devaluations and their outcome, the current high sovereign indebtedness, and the country’s persisting competitiveness gap vis-a-vis its main trading partners as well as the effects of financial contagion during the ongoing European Sovereign Debt Crisis. We explain why a GRexit would be a hugely suboptimal (and, in fact, a highly dangerous) strategy to address these problems.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82442882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Notes on Bonds: Liquidity at all Costs in the Great Recession","authors":"David K. Musto, Greg Nini, Krista Schwarz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3680151","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3680151","url":null,"abstract":"The financial crisis saw a large premium paid for Treasury notes over bonds, reaching six percent of face value. We relate this premium to the underlying sources of liquidity supply and demand. On the supply side, we find that arbitrageurs faced low direct costs but high frictions, and that the largest premium coincided with a high price charged by market makers to carry new positions. On the demand side, we find that those investors in more distress or with more active trading strategies demanded the notes relatively more as the premium grew.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78078868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}