PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)最新文献

{"title":"1918-1932: The International Great Depression (A)","authors":"R. Bruner","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3475938","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3475938","url":null,"abstract":"In May 1932, US president Herbert Hoover and British prime minister Ramsay MacDonald called for leaders from 65 nations to attend the World Economic Conference, scheduled to occur in the winter of 1933 after the American presidential election. Hoover turned his attention to the instructions he would have to give to the American delegation about the forthcoming conference. Arguments by pundits, critics, and Hoover's advisers fell into at least three mutually exclusive camps. Some wanted the United States to assume world monetary leadership, since the world needed a financial hegemon. Others thought the United States should simply promote better financial cooperation among nations, since the world needed cooperation more than hegemony, and hegemony was costly. The third camp wanted the United States to simply let the markets equilibrate, since even mild cooperation might sacrifice national self-interest without much benefit. The global economic depression presented a dire situation. All the old rules of international monetary stability had been broken. Now, what new rules should Hoover aim to promote?<br> <br>Excerpt<br><br>UVA-F-1902<br><br>Oct. 11, 2019<br><br>1918-1932: The International Great Depression (A)<br> <br>In May 1932, US president Herbert Hoover and British prime minister Ramsay MacDonald called for leaders from 65 nations to attend the World Economic Conference, scheduled to occur in the winter of 1933 after the American presidential election. The situation was dire and required decisive actions. Hoover wrote,<br> <br>[T]he world-wide collapse of finance and gold convertibility of currencies, which began with the German crisis the year before, was turning into a violent trade war between nations. In this war, depreciated currencies, managed currencies, increasing tariffs, other restrictions on imports, quotas, and foreign exchange controls were the weapons. The results appeared everywhere in the creeping paralysis of exports and imports and the constant fall of commodity prices. Creditor-debtor relations, both domestic and foreign, were fast becoming intolerable. It seemed to me that the time had arrived to revive the project of a world economic conference.<br> <br>The president hoped that at the conference, the world leaders would commit to a plan to stabilize currencies, reduce trade barriers, and lower obstacles to economic recovery.<br><br><br>. . .","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81290771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The European Union in Crisis What Challenges Lie ahead and Why It Matters for Korea","authors":"Heungchong Kim, F. Nicolas, Elvire Fabry, M. Goodwin, C. Demesmay, Barbara Kunz, Iana Dreyer, B. Andréosso-O'Callaghan, Hyun Jean Lee","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3422592","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3422592","url":null,"abstract":"This book illuminates the challenges that EU and member countries are currently facing, and those it has dealt with or must address in the future, going on to suggest possible implications for Korea. Each chapter represents the different perspectives of each author, converging to paint a picture on how the future will be shaped for the EU and its neighbours, notably Korea.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"509 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77351066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Big Con – Reassessing the \"Great\" Recession and its \"Fix\"","authors":"L. Kotlikoff","doi":"10.3386/W25213","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W25213","url":null,"abstract":"Most economists differ, not on the causes of the Great Recession, but on their relative importance. They concur, though, on the basic problem, namely human, not market failure. This study applies the evidence, some new, some old, to re-try the usual suspects. It finds none guilty. Instead, it identifies broadly defined multiple equilibrium, mediated by opacity, false rumors, and panic, as the real culprit. There are many models of bank runs. But each can trigger firing runs – firing someone else’s customers for fear that others are firing your customers. Firing runs, in turn, exacerbate bank runs, producing a vicious cycle. This cycle can be manipulated by those who benefit from economic distress (short sellers). If the banking system, not the banking players is the problem, the solution surely lies in fundamental banking reform. This paper concludes by pointing out that a reform that shifted to 100 percent, equity-financed mutual-fund banking with government-organized, real-time asset verification and disclosure could preclude financial runs and their ability to induce firing runs.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89478828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sovereign Market Tensions and Covered Bond Issuances","authors":"J. Arnal","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3270628","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3270628","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to test whether tensions in the sovereign of the 5 largest euro area Member States had an impact on the funding sources of the most relevant banks based in these Member States and more specically, on the issuance of covered bonds. This could constitute additional proof of the existence of the feedback loop between sovereigns and banks. To this end, we use several econometric methodologies like panel, VAR and ProbVAR models to analyze the impact an increase in the 10 year sovereign bond yield has on the amount of covered bonds issued and the probability to issue covered bonds by these banks. The results of the panel model indicate that the amount and probability of issuing covered bonds increase when sovereign bond yields soar in times of economic stress and not in times of more stability. The VAR and ProbVAR models confirm the results of the panel model for the cases of Germany, Spain and the Netherlands on the one hand and for Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands on the other hand. On the basis of these results, relevant policy implications can be drawn in terms of the diversification of the funding sources of credit institutions and the finalization of the projects of the Banking Union and the Capital Markets Union.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84073017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Decline of African-American and Hispanic Wealth Since the Great Recession","authors":"E. Wolff","doi":"10.3386/W25198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W25198","url":null,"abstract":"The ratio in standard net worth NW between African-Americans and (non-Hispanic) whites was the same in 2007 as in 1983 (0.19) but then fell to 0.14 in 2016, while that between Hispanics and whites climbed from 0.16 to 0.26 but then plunged to 0.19. Minorities had much higher debt-net worth ratios in 2007 – 0.55 for blacks, 0.51 for Hispanics, and 0.18 for whites. Minorities also had a higher share of assets in homes than whites – 0.54 and 0.53 versus 0.31. Decomposition analysis reveals that the lower return on wealth for minorities explained a large share of the widening wealth gap between 2007 and 2010. From 2010 to 2016, the return was higher for minorities but this was offset by larger dissavings. Adding pension and Social Security wealth to standard wealth substantially lowers the wealth gap. The racial ratio of mean augmented wealth AW (net worth, pension, and Social Security wealth) was 0.27 in 2016 and the ethnic ratio was 0.28. The racial gap was the same in 2016 as in 1989, while the ethnic ratio increased from 0.25 to 0.28. In 2016, NW inequality was considerably higher for blacks and Hispanics than whites (by 0.120 and 0.093 Gini points, but AW inequality was considerably lower (by 0.098 and 0.067 points). While AW inequality increased by 0.067 Gini points for whites from 1989 to 2016, it fell by 0.046 points for blacks and by 0.015 points for Hispanics. Social Security was the principal factor.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83309664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Local Employment Growth Patterns and the Great Recession: The Case of Spain","authors":"Adelheid Holl","doi":"10.1111/jors.12392","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12392","url":null,"abstract":"The 2008 financial and economic crisis has led to widespread destruction of employment in Spain. Using municipality data, I examine employment growth differences between urban cores, urban hinterlands, and rural areas during the pre‐crisis period and the recession period. The data show that patterns of growth and decline have been very uneven across different types of areas. While in the boom years, hinterlands and rural areas experienced higher growth, urban core areas have done better during the recession years. I then test three strands of explanations for local growth differences: (i) the role of the local sectoral composition, (ii) the role of human capital, and (iii) the role of access to urban core areas. Estimations for employment growth in the two periods show that the crisis has altered some of the drivers of local employment growth and that human capital has been a key determinant of local resilience during the Great Recession.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73389969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Quiet‐Loud‐Quiet Politics of Post‐Crisis Consumer Bankruptcy Law: The Case of Ireland and the Troika","authors":"J. Spooner","doi":"10.1111/1468-2230.12365","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2230.12365","url":null,"abstract":"A decade after the Global Financial Crisis, many developed economies continue to strain under excessive household debt. This article presents evidence suggesting that the failure of policymakers to enact debt relief measures may lie in the superior influence of the coordinated and concentrated financial sector over legislative processes as compared to the diffuse and disorganised interests of consumer debtors. Post-crisis popular interest in technical issues of personal insolvency law created only a narrow space of political opportunity. Soon these questions returned to the domain of technocratic actors and corporate influence. The article examines this situation through an inter-disciplinary case study of consumer bankruptcy reform in Ireland under ‘Troika’ supervision. Proposals initially billed as assisting over-indebted households developed into increasingly creditor-friendly legislation in ‘quieter’ stages of technocratic decision-making. The stark implications of these findings highlight obstacles to resolving household debt problems and consequent risks of economic and political instability","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86603862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spurious Regulation: Who Believes in 'No More Bailouts'?","authors":"Mark Henning, F. Lehrbass","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3210468","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3210468","url":null,"abstract":"One of main consequences of the Global Financial Crisis is stricter banking regulation. In fact, the black and white of the regulators' output misleads people to believe that there will be no more bailouts in the future. But history teaches us that this statement should not be taken too seriously. Therefore we may speak of 'spurious regulation'. To judge upon the degree to which implicit guarantees are pre-supposed by the credit and capital markets we investigate empirically whether there is a link between the creditworthiness of a country and the prospects of an investment in a bank's equity. Specifically, we check whether there is a significant impact of sovereign CDS spreads on stock returns using panel econometrics within a CAPM-type context. The findings are model-dependent: Using SUR we find eight cases, whereas using DCC we get only four. Hence, there might be some work to do for the regulators. Hence, using only SUR can be misleading.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75366417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Jump Spillover and Risk Effects on Excess Returns in the United States During the Great Recession","authors":"Jessica Schlossberg, Norman R. Swanson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3208759","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3208759","url":null,"abstract":"In this chapter, we review econometric methodology that is used to test for jumps and to decompose realized volatility into continuous and jump components. In order to illustrate how to implement the methods discussed, we also present the results of an empirical analysis in which we separate continuous asset return variation and finite activity jump variation from excess returns on various US market sector exchange traded funds (ETFs), during and around the Great Recession of 2008. Our objective is to characterize the financial contagion that was present during one of the greatest financial crises in US history. In particular, we study how shocks, as measured by jumps, propagate through nine different market sectors. One element of our analysis involves the investigation of causal linkages associated with jumps (via use of vector autoregressions), and another involves the examination of the predictive content of jumps for excess returns. We find that as early as 2006, jump spillover effects became more pronounced in the markets. We also observe that jumps had a significant effect on excess returns during 2008 and 2009; but not in the years before and after the recession.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89685815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Proposal on ELBE and LGD In-Default: Tackling Capital Requirements after the Financial Crisis","authors":"M. Ramos Gonzalez, A. Partal-Ureña, Pilar Gómez-Fernández-Aguado","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3202618","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3202618","url":null,"abstract":"Following the financial crisis, the share of non-performing loans has significantly increased, while the regulatory guidelines on the Internal-Ratings Based (IRB) approach for capital adequacy calculation related to defaulted exposures remains too general. As a result, the high-risk nature of these portfolios is clearly in danger of being managed in a heterogeneous and inappropriate manner by those financial institutions permitted to use the IRB system, with the consequent undue variability of Risk-Weighted Assets (RWA). This paper presents a proposal to construct Advanced IRB models for defaulted exposures, in line with current regulations, that preserve the risk sensitivity of capital requirements. To do so, both parameters Expected Loss Best Estimate (ELBE) and Loss Given Default (LGD) in-default are obtained, backed by an innovative indicator (Mixed Adjustment Indicator) that is introduced to ensure an appropriate estimation of expected and unexpected losses. The methodology presented has low complexity and is easily applied to the databases commonly used at these institutions, as illustrated by two examples.","PeriodicalId":20862,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Financial Crises (Topic)","volume":"716 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74761228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}