Progress in Oceanography最新文献

{"title":"Iron fertilization from Asian dust drives tertiary-level productivity of Pacific salmon","authors":"Yongsong Qiu","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103514","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103514","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Iron enrichment in high-macronutrient, low-chlorophyll surface oceans was hypothesized to enhance primary production and carbon sinks that ultimately influence the earth’s climatic system. Although the enhancement of primary production and carbon sinks has been repeatedly verified, the role of iron in upper-level production remained uninvestigated, and thus, our understanding of ecosystem responses is incomplete. In this analysis, paleorecords and modern time series are gleaned to test an extended hypothesis that tertiary-level productivity is also promoted by iron fertilization. Paleoproxies and modern records for the abundance of sockeye salmon returning to an Alaskan lake are related to climatic variables describing the flux of iron-laden Asian dust, its <em>trans</em>-Pacific transport, and its deposition into the iron-limited Gulf of Alaska sockeye salmon feeding ground. The linkage shows that for ∼2,200 years, the productivity of the salmon stock has been driven by this Asian dust supply. Data from modern observations provide more direct support for the linkage between dust-iron input, primary production, and salmon abundance. This analysis indicates that iron from Asian dust drives primary through to sockeye salmon productivity via bottom-up food-web control. This understanding of the role of iron in tertiary-level production provides a basis for the artificial enhancement of ocean living resources, but questions arise regarding the efficiency of iron fertilization in climate mitigation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"237 ","pages":"Article 103514"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144270644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Biogeochemical features along the northern and central Patagonian shelf during a spring cruise: implications for biological productivity","authors":"Valentina Valdés-Castro ,&nbsp;Diego A. Narváez ,&nbsp;Marcelo H. Gutiérrez ,&nbsp;Silvio Pantoja-Gutiérrez ,&nbsp;Camila Fernández","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103511","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103511","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Patagonian fjords, channels, and glacial meltwater plays a key role in shaping the hydrography and biogeochemistry of the Southeastern Pacific Ocean, through substantial exchanges with open ocean waters. However, the continental shelf between 46°S and 48°S remains less explored, leaving critical gaps in our understanding of nutrient dynamics and productivity patterns. This study investigates latitudinal gradients in water column biogeochemistry and productivity in northern and central Chilean Patagonia during the austral spring of 2018. We identified three distinct zones: a northern area (41°S and 46°S) with higher temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and chlorophyll-a concentrations; an exchange zone between Guafo entrance and Moraleda Channel, characterized by elevated inorganic nutrient concentrations; and a southern area (46°S and 48°S) with increased ammonium concentrations and the lowest silicic acid levels. Offshore stations in the northern area exhibited the highest integrated primary production rates (up to 6.3 g C m⁻² d⁻¹), primarily sustained by nitrate uptake (<em>ƒ</em> ratios up to 0.98). In contrast, the southern area showed a preference for ammonium assimilation, with lower <em>ƒ</em> ratios (0.1–0.3). These findings suggest that the northern area supports a high proportion of new primary production, which likely enhances organic matter export and the efficiency of the biological pump, whereas regenerated production in the southern area may limit carbon export potential. Our study provides the first large-scale description of the biogeochemical features of the Patagonian continental shelf, particularly around the Taitao Peninsula, offering a critical baseline for understanding biogeochemical processes in this region and its potential responses to climate change and anthropogenic pressure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"236 ","pages":"Article 103511"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144195131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Census of mesoscale eddies in the Northwestern Japan Sea based on Lagrangian analysis and ship observations","authors":"A.A. Udalov,&nbsp;V.B. Lobanov,&nbsp;S.V. Prants,&nbsp;S.Y. Ladychenko,&nbsp;M.V. Budyansky,&nbsp;A.N. Salyuk","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103513","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103513","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mesoscale eddies are intrinsic features in the Japan Sea northwest of the Subpolar Front, some of which have been sampled by the authors in different years. Using an automatic eddy-detection algorithm and altimetry-based Lagrangian maps, we have found two domains with increased occurrence frequency of anticyclones and three domains with increased occurrence frequency of cyclones, where the mesoscale eddies regularly form, circulate and decay. The census of long-lived eddies with a surface signature in 1993 – 2022 has been conducted. The distributions of these eddies over the values of nonlinearity parameter, lifetime, radius, swirl and translational velocities and the months of formation and decay have been calculated and analyzed. Using the shipboard and satellite observations and Lagrangian analysis, a few sampled anticyclones and cyclones have been studied in detail with the focus on the thermohaline properties and vertical structure, the genesis and variability. These properties differ for the eddies in the discovered formation domains. Using the Lagrangian particle-tracking method, the content of waters of subtropical and subarctic origin in the surface cores of the sampled eddies and its temporal variability have been estimated. It has been found that cyclonic eddies are associated with a dome-like lifting of isolines which can be traced down to the bottom, but they do not transport trapped water over a long distance. Anticyclonic eddies contain low-salinity water in their cores. Extremely low saline water is observed in the eddies located in the western domain, northwest of the Subpolar Front. The eddies, located at the front and to the south of it, have warm and high-salinity upper cores formed by modified subtropical water and also contain secondary cores of low-salinity water at an intermediate depth. By trapping and transporting low-salinity water, these eddies contribute to distribution of low-salinity intermediate water in the Japan Sea.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"236 ","pages":"Article 103513"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144205300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does the oceanographic response to wind farm wind-wakes affect the spring phytoplankton bloom?","authors":"Arianna Zampollo ,&nbsp;Rory O’Hara Murray ,&nbsp;Alejandro Gallego ,&nbsp;Beth Scott","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103512","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103512","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Large offshore wind farms (OWFs) will be deployed in the North Sea, potentially causing multiple effects on marine ecosystems some of which may be synergistic with climate change. This study modelled the oceanographic bio-physical response to anticipated atmospheric wind farm wakes in the north-west North Sea. The wind wake was included as a reduction of the wind speed into the atmospheric forcing of the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) coupled with the European Regional Sea Model (ERSEM) from three OWFs using a year with available <em>in situ</em> data for model validation. The spatial distribution of physical variables and chlorophyll <em>a</em> (Chl-a) was compared between model runs with and without OWFs during three temporal subdivisions (pre-bloom, bloom and post-bloom) of the spring-summer period. Overall, across the entire period there was a 7 % decrease in Chl-a concentration, with the decrease being more pronounced during the bloom period. However, there was a slight increase in Chl-a in the post-bloom period. At higher temporal (12 h) and spatial (&gt; 1 km) scales, significant changes in Chl-a were identified throughout the vertical water column and during the prevailing south-west and north-west winds, which generated a persistent upwelling/downwelling dipole across the simulated time series. The spatial variations of potential energy anomaly (PEA) and Chl-a were the most informative variables as they displayed distinct values and spatial distributions linked to the upwelling/downwelling dipoles. The downwelling cell was characterised by fresher and warmer waters, especially at the surface, with areas displaying an increase in stratification with a resulting decrease of Chl-a in seasonally stratified waters. On the other hand, upwelling regions were characterised by saltier and cooler waters with increasing PEA in permanently mixed and intermittently stratified waters showing consistently increased Chl-a production. The changes to levels of stratification are ecologically important as they change the vertical characteristics of the water column differently over a seasonal cycle. The analyses confirmed that it is critical to identify the temporal and spatial scales at which important changes to the physics and Chl-a production occur as they will play a role in assessing the range of impacts of OWFs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"237 ","pages":"Article 103512"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144549193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ocean circulation drives zonation of deep-water coral communities and their traits in the Northwest Atlantic","authors":"Maria Rakka ,&nbsp;Anna Metaxas ,&nbsp;Martha Nizinski ,&nbsp;David Packer ,&nbsp;Marlene Wall","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103509","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103509","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>One of the main objectives of community ecology is to unravel the mechanisms that influence the composition of species assemblages, a process known as community assembly. While research in terrestrial and coastal marine ecosystems has provided extensive knowledge on community assembly, little is known about the processes that shape ecological communities in the deep sea. In this study, we focus on deep-water coral communities in the NW Atlantic to assess the importance of environmental variables and coral traits for community assembly, by using joint species distribution modelling and trait-based approaches. We found that oceanographic variables, such as bottom temperature and salinity, influence the composition and trait characteristics of deep-water coral communities. Model predictions revealed a bathymetric zonation of coral communities driven by the predominant water masses in the region. Coral skeletal material emerged as an important trait: increased bottom salinity associated with subtropical water masses promoted the occurrence of corals with aragonite-based skeletons, while low salinity associated with subarctic water masses promoted the occurrence of corals that use calcite. Coral communities located at sites influenced by subtropical water masses showed higher species and trait diversity, while communities within the Gulf of Maine showed signs of strong environmental filtering and disturbance. These results emphasize the importance of ocean circulation for the assembly of deep-water coral communities. Our findings advance our understanding of the mechanisms that influence community assembly in the deep sea and improve our ability to predict potential consequences of future shifts in ocean circulation caused by climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"236 ","pages":"Article 103509"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Meiofauna assemblages in and around the Aleutian Trench, with focus on Harpacticoida (Copepoda)","authors":"Frederic Bonk ,&nbsp;Franziska Iwan ,&nbsp;Angelika Brandt ,&nbsp;Pedro Martínez Arbizu","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103510","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103510","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The aim of this study was to investigate and compare the composition of meiofaunal organisms in and around the Aleutian Trench, with a detailed focus on Harpacticoida. Overall, Nematoda were the most abundant Taxon (88.5 – 86.6%) followed by Copepoda (4.8 – 3.8%). The highest concentrations of these two taxa were observed in the northern rim of the trench and the Bering Sea, while Loricifera demonstrated higher abundances in the southern rim. Furthermore, a greater number of harpacticoid families were identified in samples from the northern rim and the Bering Sea compared to the other sampling sites. A total of 16 different harpacticoid families were identified, with Ectinosomatidae being the most abundant. Samples from the Aleutian trench exhibited low diversity and the lowest number of encountered families. The distribution and composition of meiofaunal organisms were found to be influenced by water depth, silt and clay content, and TOC. For the harpacticoid families, the most influential factors were water depth and Chl-<em>a</em>. The families Ectinosomatidae and Pseudotachidiidae contribute the most to Bray-Curtis dissimilarities. Out of seven selected harpacticoid genera, no genera showed a significant high abundance in the Aleutian trench, while <em>Pseudotachidius</em> showed a higher abundance in the Bering Sea compared to the northern rim of the trench and within the trench, and <em>Zosime</em> showed a higher abundance in the Bering Sea and in the northern rim compared to the southern rim of the trench.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"236 ","pages":"Article 103510"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144146901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Abyssal and hadal macroinbenthic assemblages in the eastern Aleutian Trench (NE Pacific)","authors":"Mathis Preikschardt ,&nbsp;Davide Di Franco ,&nbsp;Andreas Kelch ,&nbsp;Karin Meißner ,&nbsp;Angelika Brandt ,&nbsp;Stefanie Kaiser","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103508","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103508","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Aleutian Trench area is characterized by topographic and hydrographic discontinuities that may act as dispersal barriers, as well as strong environmental gradients that are likely to limit species distribution and promote diversification. The western part of the Aleutian Trench is comparably well studied, but there has been a paucity of benthic samples from its eastern part. This study aims to shed light on the benthic fauna of the eastern Aleutian Trench by analysing patterns in density and community structure of macrobenthic infauna, particularly isopod crustaceans and polychaetes, in relation to various environmental variables. The samples for this study were collected during the Aleutian Trench Biodiversity Studies (AleutBio) expedition (SO293) in 2022, which involved transects from north to south (abyssal North, hadal, abyssal South) along the Aleutian Trench and two sampling areas in the adjacent Bering Sea. In total, 14 stations at depths of 3,511–7,287 m were sampled using a box corer. Our findings indicated polychaetes to dominate macrofaunal communities followed by peracarids and molluscs. We observed a significant decrease in the densities of total macrofauna, polychaetes, and isopods with depth. There were no significant differences in macrofaunal composition at higher taxonomic levels, nor in the family-level composition of polychaetes and isopods between regions. Yet, at higher taxonomic resolution, i.e. genus and species level of Isopoda, the composition of isopods exhibited significant differences between the north and south abyssal as well as hadal region of the Aleutian Trench. Most isopod species identified (∼77%) were new to science and only a few were shared between regions or depth zonation. Additionally, the abyssal north Aleutian Trench showed a higher species diversity than the hadal and abyssal south. Overall, depth and sediment characteristics appeared to be the main drivers of differences in macrofaunal densities, community composition and isopod diversity. The study of deep-sea organisms, particularly isopods — one of the most abundant and diverse groups of macrofauna in the abyssal and hadal zones — is crucial for understanding, monitoring, and assessing the integrity of deep-sea benthic ecosystems. This includes assessing their biodiversity, distribution patterns, and the potential impacts of global change on species with limited dispersal capacity. However, more samples, higher taxonomic resolution and genetic analyses would help to elucidate ecological and environmental drivers of macrofaunal and especially isopod composition and connectivity across the trench.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"237 ","pages":"Article 103508"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144313037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dispersion characteristics in the East Australian Current system: Insights from 20 years of Lagrangian drifter data","authors":"Luke Matisons ,&nbsp;Moninya Roughan ,&nbsp;Amandine Schaeffer","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103498","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103498","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dispersion is a fundamental physical mechanism that shapes marine ecosystems through transporting and mixing heat, salt, and nutrients, as well as affecting the distribution and connectivity of organisms. Western Boundary Currents (WBC) are key to driving regional heat circulation, have immense economic and social value, and also have a significant impact on dispersion. Despite its importance, the understanding of dispersion in the East Australian Current (EAC) system, a dynamic WBC that is experiencing rapid changes, remains limited. Using 20 years of data collected as part of the Global Drifter Program, we conduct an in-depth analysis of dispersion characteristics in the EAC system. We show that both single (absolute) and pairwise (relative) dispersion metrics closely align with theoretical quasi- or surface quasi-geostrophic regimes based on both surface (undrogued drifter) and near surface (<span><math><mrow><mo>∼</mo><mn>15</mn></mrow></math></span> m; drogued drifter) observations, but absolute dispersion can be super-diffusive after the integral time scale, especially at the surface where wind and wave energy may play a role. Diffusivity is spatially heterogeneous, generally being higher where the current has a strong influence, but particularly so where the current separates into a vast eddy field in the Tasman Sea. Strengthening of the EAC jet and the eddy kinetic energy at its separation during austral summer can lead to an approximate doubling of the eddy diffusivity at 33° S and prolonged Richardson pairwise dispersion. This important baseline study demonstrates the influence that EAC dynamics can have on dispersion characteristics, and emphasizes the possible need for better model parameterizations that can account for anisotropic or spatially inhomogeneous dispersion prominent in dynamic WBC regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"236 ","pages":"Article 103498"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144108119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Which processes structure global pelagic ecosystems and control their trophic functioning? Insights from the mechanistic model APECOSM","authors":"Laureline Dalaut ,&nbsp;Nicolas Barrier ,&nbsp;Matthieu Lengaigne ,&nbsp;Jonathan Rault ,&nbsp;Alejandro Ariza ,&nbsp;Mokrane Belharet ,&nbsp;Adrien Brunel ,&nbsp;Ralf Schwamborn ,&nbsp;Mariana Travassos-Tolotti ,&nbsp;Olivier Maury","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103480","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103480","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pelagic ecosystems are distributed throughout the world’s seas and oceans. They are characterised by strong vertical structuring, horizontal heterogeneity and temporal variability, which pose significant challenges for modelling them on a global scale. In this paper, we use the mechanistic high trophic level model APECOSM (Apex Predators ECOSystem Model) to assess how the physical and biogeochemical environment constrains the structure and trophic functioning of pelagic ecosystems worldwide.</div><div>To this end, we configure the model to represent the three-dimensional and size-structured dynamics of six generic pelagic communities: small and medium epipelagics, tropical tunas, mesopelagic feeding tunas, small coastal pelagics, mesopelagic residents and mesopelagic migrants. We analyse their emergent three-dimensional spatial structuring on a global scale.</div><div>We first show that the modelled horizontal and vertical distributions are consistent with the observed data. We then analyse the role of key environmental drivers, such as temperature, light, primary production, currents and oxygen on the response of the communities. Finally, we explore the trophic functioning of pelagic ecosystems, focusing on the emergent diets of communities and their variation with organism size.</div><div>This study demonstrates the ability of a mechanistic ecosystem model to represent the multidimensional structural heterogeneity of marine ecosystems globally (encompassing three-dimensional distribution, size variations, and community composition) from a small set of universal principles and well-defined hypotheses. This approach helps to understand how the various processes at stake act and interact to shape the structure of global pelagic ecosystems, and eventually elucidate the heterogeneity of their trophic functioning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"235 ","pages":"Article 103480"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143947175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Future climate projections in the global coastal ocean","authors":"Jason Holt ,&nbsp;Anna Katavouta ,&nbsp;Joanne Hopkins ,&nbsp;Laurent O. Amoudry ,&nbsp;Christian M. Appendini ,&nbsp;Lars Arneborg ,&nbsp;Alex Arnold ,&nbsp;Yuri Artioli ,&nbsp;Jerome Aucan ,&nbsp;Barbara Berx ,&nbsp;Laura Cagigal ,&nbsp;Michela De Dominicis ,&nbsp;Cléa Denamiel ,&nbsp;Giovanni Galli ,&nbsp;Jennifer A. Graham ,&nbsp;Zoe Jacobs ,&nbsp;Svetlana Jevrejeva ,&nbsp;Bahareh Kamranzad ,&nbsp;Clothilde Langlais ,&nbsp;Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen ,&nbsp;Nadia Pinardi","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103497","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103497","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Resilient coastal communities and sustainable marine economies require actionable knowledge to plan for and adapt to emerging and potential future climate change, particularly in relation to ecosystem services and coastal hazards. Such knowledge necessarily draws heavily on coastal ocean modelling of future climate impacts, using a great diversity of both global and regional approaches to explore multiple societal challenges in coastal and shelf seas around the world. In this paper, we explore the challenges, solutions and benefits of developing a better coordinated and global approach to future climate impacts modelling of the coastal ocean, in the context of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development project Future Coastal Ocean Climates (FLAME; part of the CoastPredict programme). Particularly, we address the need for diverse modelling approaches to meet different societal challenges, how regions can be harmonised through clustering and typology approaches, and how coordination of experimental designs can promote a better understanding of uncertainties and regional responses. Improved harmonisation of future climate impact projections in the global coastal ocean would allow sectoral and cross-sectoral global scale risk assessments, improve process understanding and help build capacity in under-represented areas such as the global south and small island developing states. We conclude with a proposed framework for a Global Coastal Ocean Model Intercomparison Project.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"235 ","pages":"Article 103497"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143937745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}