{"title":"Near-Earth phase risk comparison of human Mars campaign architectures","authors":"T. Manning, H. Nejad, C. Mattenberger","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2013.6517729","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2013.6517729","url":null,"abstract":"A risk analysis of the launch, orbital assembly, and Earth-departure phases of human Mars exploration campaign architectures was completed as an extension of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) originally carried out under the NASA Constellation Program Ares V Project [1]. The objective of the updated analysis was to study the sensitivity of loss-of-campaign risk to such architectural factors as composition of the propellant delivery portion of the launch vehicle fleet (Ares V heavy-lift launch vehicle vs. smaller/cheaper commercial launchers) and the degree of launcher or Mars-bound spacecraft element sparing. Both a static PRA analysis and a dynamic, event-based Monte Carlo simulation were developed and used to evaluate the probability of loss of campaign under different sparing options. Results showed that with no sparing, loss-of-campaign risk is strongly driven by launcher count and on-orbit loiter duration, favoring an all-Ares V launch approach. Further, the reliability of the all-Ares V architecture showed significant improvement with the addition of a single spare launcher/payload. Among architectures utilizing a mix of Ares V and commercial launchers, those that minimized the on-orbit loiter duration of Mars-bound elements were found to exceed the reliability of no spare all-Ares V campaign if unlimited commercial vehicle sparing was assumed.","PeriodicalId":189714,"journal":{"name":"2013 Proceedings Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131790598","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Performance degeneration analysis and reliability evaluation of servo valve","authors":"Jinling Wang, Jianbin Guo, S. Zeng, Wensheng Shi","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2013.6517672","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2013.6517672","url":null,"abstract":"Generally, products especially aviation products must satisfy rigorous demand on the performance sensitivity caused by uncertainty disturbance. As long as performance indexes overstep the specified range, the temporal failure would happen. Otherwise, long time degeneration becomes increasingly obvious with usage and further intensifies performance sensitivity. So performance reliability gradually degrades. However, traditional reliability assessment methods are distinctly deficient when applied to evaluate performance reliability considering degeneration. Therefore, an improved method is proposed in this research. The definition and expression of performance reliability are presented first, and the theory of performance reliability evaluation considering degeneration is also introduced. To solve the simulation problem for the long time, a multi Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed. In the case of servo valve, according the procedure of the performance reliability evaluation method, initial uncertainty disturbance sub-models of design parameters& environment & noise, and degenerated uncertainty disturbance sub-models are both established. Then two kinds of submodels are respectively injected into the performance model to construct the integrated performance and reliability model considering uncertainty and degeneration. Finally time-dependent performance reliability is evaluated via the multi Monte Carlo method. Simulation results demonstrate that the method in this study is feasible.","PeriodicalId":189714,"journal":{"name":"2013 Proceedings Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS)","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121703071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Estimating component reliabilities from incomplete system failure data","authors":"Huairui Guo, F. Szidarovszky, Pengying Niu","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2013.6517765","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2013.6517765","url":null,"abstract":"Engineers often need to estimate component reliabilities from system failure data that are obtained either from in-house tests or field operations. The components that caused the system failures usually can be identified by checking the failed systems; however, in some cases, the exact cause of failure is very difficult or impossible to identify. For the latter case, the information on the system failures is not complete, and such data are usually called masked failure data. In this paper, we propose a method for estimating component reliabilities from masked system failure data. Solutions for systems with serial and parallel configurations are provided. The failure distribution of each component is obtained from the proposed method, and is then used to calculate the probability that a system failure is caused by the given component when the exact time or an interval time of the system failure is known. This probability is very useful since it can be used to decide which component should be analyzed first when a system failure occurs, depending on the failure time.","PeriodicalId":189714,"journal":{"name":"2013 Proceedings Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS)","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121781230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reliability of phased-mission systems subject to competing failures","authors":"Chaonan Wang, L. Xing, G. Levitin","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2013.6517701","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2013.6517701","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers the reliability analysis of phased-mission systems (PMS) subject to competing failure propagation and failure isolation effects. A propagated failure with global effect (PFGE) originating from a system component is a failure that causes damage to all other system components besides the component itself. However, in systems subject to the functional dependence (FDEP) behavior, the failure of a trigger component can make the system insensitive to PFGE originating from the dependent components, i.e., the failure isolation effect. On the other hand, if the trigger component is still functioning when the PFGE of a dependent component happens, the failure propagation effect takes place causing the entire system failure. In summary, there exists competition between the failure isolation and failure propagation effects. Existing works addressing the above described competing failures focus only on single-phase systems. In this work, we propose a combinatorial algorithm for the reliability analysis of non-repairable PMS subject to the competing failures. The proposed approach is applicable to different types of time-to-failure distributions for the system components. A case study is given to demonstrate application and advantages of the proposed method.","PeriodicalId":189714,"journal":{"name":"2013 Proceedings Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125153762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Better bottom line through lower component stress","authors":"N. Bidokhti","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2013.6517712","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2013.6517712","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses the value of having a methodology and capability to de-risk the design from stress de-rating point of view and how to improve the bottom line by following and building enough margins in the design. As designs are becoming more complex and development time is getting shorter, the chance of designing overstressed components and introducing schematic connectivity errors increases significantly which could lead to higher number of failures. This scenario is a one of typical cases where the overall product bottom line is impacted. Electronic assemblies are utilizing complex circuitry with smarter and denser ICs with more than 1000 pins. Due to sophisticated features and requirements of new designs, power dissipation and temperatures are increasing that jeopardizes the design reliability and integrity for mission critical systems. In addition to lack of acceptable product performance, mission critical and non-critical products will experience higher number of returns where it directly impacts customer confidence and cost of ownership. The challenge for today's reliability and design engineers is to perform an analysis in a timely manner at the schematic level before the first prototype to identify overstressed components and pins to prevent hardware re-spin. The intent if this paper is to demonstrate methods that should be implemented during the design phase of electronic boards, which will help the designer and the reliability analyst to detect components with high operational stress. The stress level can be power, voltage, current or temperature. Through this technique, product time to market will be reduced and decreases the risk of hardware failures during product operation. The analysis will provide best rules for schematic modeling, stress analysis and the importance of de-rating standard in a design. The paper will include the results of more than 20 analysis performed utilizing the recommended best practices and how many re-spins were prevented. This analysis can be performed on any types of components such as analog, digital and RF.","PeriodicalId":189714,"journal":{"name":"2013 Proceedings Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124547906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Storage life prediction of electromagnetic relay based on PoF analysis","authors":"B. Wan, Guicui Fu, Nan Li, Youhu Zhao, Li Wang","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2013.6517671","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2013.6517671","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposed a storage life prediction method for air sealed electromagnetic relay based on Physics of Failure (PoF) analysis by an Accelerated Storage Degradation Test (ASDT) of the electromagnetic relay to forecast the component failure. Firstly, an Accelerated Storage Degradation Test (ASDT) of air sealed electromagnetic relay is designed and implemented based on the storage failure mechanism. Secondly, the PoF analysis such as Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) energy spectrum analysis is designed for the contact of relay after ASDT. The organic compound content on contact is analyzed at each temperature testing samples. Then the time series method is applied to model the degradation path and the storage life is predicted according to the characteristic of ASDT data. Finally, based on the relationship between prediction of the storage life and organic contamination degree of the contact, the PoF model of contact contamination of electromagnetic relay is proposed, which presents the relationship between the storage residual life and the carbon content of the organic compound on the contact. It is meaningful to avoiding the redundant preventive maintenance and saving the maintenance costs.","PeriodicalId":189714,"journal":{"name":"2013 Proceedings Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS)","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116039614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Effective R&M activities","authors":"A. Foote","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2013.6517702","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2013.6517702","url":null,"abstract":"Alion's System Reliability Center (SRC) has developed a systematic approach for independently assessing all aspects of the product's life cycle to determine whether proven reliability and maintainability (R&M) activities are being utilized within an organization. Alion SRC's Reliability Maturity Assessment benefits from lessons learned in a wide range of industries to objectively identify strengths and weaknesses to provide a numerical rating of an organization's current reliability maturity. The assessment also provides an actionable improvement plan for moving the organization forward to higher levels of reliability maturity.","PeriodicalId":189714,"journal":{"name":"2013 Proceedings Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116126064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Integrated circuit reliability prediction based on physics-of-failure models in conjunction with field study","authors":"A. Hava, J. Qin, J. Bernstein, Y. Bot","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2013.6517737","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2013.6517737","url":null,"abstract":"Microelectronics device reliability has been improving with every generation of technology whereas the density of the circuits continues to double approximately every 18 months. We studied field data gathered from a large fleet of mobile communications products that were deployed over a period of 8 years in order to examine the reliability trend in the field. We extrapolated the expected failure rate for a series of microprocessors and found a significant trend whereby the circuit failure rate increases approximately half the rate of the technology, going up by approximately √2 in that same 18 month period.","PeriodicalId":189714,"journal":{"name":"2013 Proceedings Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126419945","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Defect types and surveillance strategies for one-shot items","authors":"R. Bierbaum, A. Robertson","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2013.6517631","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2013.6517631","url":null,"abstract":"This paper will describe some of the challenges and strategies for sampling and testing of complex one-shot systems. A taxonomy for defect types will be offered that informs the nature of the testing and analysis that should be done. In addition, some options for balancing and articulating risk will be summarized for the various surveillance programs described.","PeriodicalId":189714,"journal":{"name":"2013 Proceedings Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS)","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128794184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Pre-proposal assessment of reliability for spacecraft docking with limited information","authors":"A. Brall","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2013.6517719","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2013.6517719","url":null,"abstract":"This paper addresses the problem of estimating the reliability of a critical system function as well as its impact on the system reliability when limited information is available. The approach addresses the basic function reliability, and then the impact of multiple attempts to accomplish the function. The dependence of subsequent attempts on prior failure to accomplish the function is also addressed. The autonomous docking of two spacecraft was the specific example that generated the inquiry, and the resultant impact on total reliability generated substantial interest in presenting the results due to the relative insensitivity of overall performance to basic function reliability and moderate degradation given sufficient attempts to try and accomplish the required goal. The application of the methodology allows proper emphasis on the characteristics that can be estimated with some knowledge, and to insulate the integrity of the design from those characteristics that can't be properly estimated with any rational value of uncertainty. The nature of NASA's missions contains a great deal of uncertainty due to the pursuit of new science or operations. This approach can be applied to any function where multiple attempts at success, with or without degradation, are allowed.","PeriodicalId":189714,"journal":{"name":"2013 Proceedings Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS)","volume":"85 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132661750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}