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Education Reform in General Equilibrium: Evidence from California's Class Size Reduction 一般均衡下的教育改革:来自加州班级规模缩减的证据
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2018-01-05 DOI: 10.3386/W24191
Michael Gilraine, Hugh Macartney, R. Mcmillan
{"title":"Education Reform in General Equilibrium: Evidence from California's Class Size Reduction","authors":"Michael Gilraine, Hugh Macartney, R. Mcmillan","doi":"10.3386/W24191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W24191","url":null,"abstract":"This paper sheds new light on general equilibrium responses to major education reforms, focusing on a sorting mechanism likely to operate whenever a reform improves public school quality significantly. It does so in the context of California’s statewide class size reduction program of the late-1990s, and makes two main contributions. First, using a transparent differencing strategy that exploits the grade-specific roll-out of the reform, we show evidence of general equilibrium sorting effects: Improvements in public school quality caused marked reductions in local private school shares, consequent changes in public school demographics, and significant increases in local house prices – the latter indicative of the reform’s full impact. Second, using a generalization of the differencing approach, we provide credible estimates of the direct and indirect impacts of the reform on a common scale. These reveal a large pure class size effect of 0.11Iƒ (in terms of mathematics scores), and an even larger indirect effect of 0.16Iƒ via induced changes in school demographics. Further, we show that both effects persist positively, giving rise to an overall policy impact estimated to be 0.4Iƒ higher after four years of treatment (relative to none). The analysis draws attention, more broadly, to conditions under which the indirect sorting effects of major reforms are likely to be first order.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90237618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 13
Stock price crashes: Role of slow-moving capital 股价暴跌:缓慢流动资本的作用
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2017-12-07 DOI: 10.3386/w24098
Mila Getmansky, R. Jagannathan, L. Pelizzon, E. Schaumburg, Darya Yuferova
{"title":"Stock price crashes: Role of slow-moving capital","authors":"Mila Getmansky, R. Jagannathan, L. Pelizzon, E. Schaumburg, Darya Yuferova","doi":"10.3386/w24098","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w24098","url":null,"abstract":"We study the role of various trader types in providing liquidity in spot and futures markets based on complete order-book and transactions data as well as cross-market trader identifiers from the National Stock Exchange of India for a single large stock. During normal times, short-term traders who carry little inventory overnight are the primary intermediaries in both spot and futures markets, and changes in futures prices Granger-cause changes in spot prices. However, during two days of fast crashes, Granger-causality ran both ways. Both crashes were due to large-scale selling by foreign institutional investors in the spot market. Buying by short-term traders and cross-market traders was insufficient to stop the crashes. Mutual funds, patient traders with better trade-execution quality who were initially slow to move in, eventually bought sufficient quantities leading to price recovery in both markets. Our findings suggest that market stability requires the presence of well-capitalized standby liquidity providers.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"79 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81494835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Too Much of a Good Thing? Exporters, Multiproduct Firms and Labor Market Imperfections 好事太多?出口商、多产品企业和劳动力市场不完善
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/w23834
C. Eckel, S. Yeaple
{"title":"Too Much of a Good Thing? Exporters, Multiproduct Firms and Labor Market Imperfections","authors":"C. Eckel, S. Yeaple","doi":"10.3386/w23834","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w23834","url":null,"abstract":"International trade is primarily conducted by large, multiproduct firms (MPFs) that pay above average wages and exhibit high productivity. In this paper we show that if firms can invest in management technologies for identifying worker skill then they will enjoy a form of market power in the labor market that artificially lowers their labor costs. This market failure results in excessive consumption of resources by large, productive exporting firms relative to the social optimum. Trade liberalization then has an ambiguous effect on aggregate welfare: lower trade costs increase access to foreign goods but also exacerbates the labor market distortion as resources are transferred to large firms. The model highlights the need to know why firms \"excel\" before drawing welfare conclusions regarding cross firm reallocations of resources.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84340816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Consumption Risk and Human Capital Accumulation in India 消费风险与印度人力资本积累
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2017-11-16 DOI: 10.3386/w24041
A. Foster, Esther Gehrke
{"title":"Consumption Risk and Human Capital Accumulation in India","authors":"A. Foster, Esther Gehrke","doi":"10.3386/w24041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w24041","url":null,"abstract":"We study the consequences of dynamic complementarities in the production of child human capital for the relationship between risk and schooling investment in a low income setting. In contrast to previous literature, we explore the ex ante response of schooling to risk. We develop a model that incorporates, dynamic complementarity in the education production function, ex-post labor market responses by mothers to income shocks, and substitutability between maternal and child work in the household. We test the model using data from rural India, focusing particularly on the schooling of girls. We find that risk substantially reduces the probability that girls attend school. We then simulate the effects of an implicit social insurance program, modeled after the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS). Our results suggest that the risk-reducing effect of the NREGS may offset adverse effects on child education that were evident during the NREGS phase-in due to rising wages.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"191 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77755508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
ECB Policies Involving Government Bond Purchases: Impact and Channels 欧洲央行涉及政府债券购买的政策:影响和渠道
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2017-11-02 DOI: 10.3386/W23985
A. Krishnamurthy, S. Nagel, Annette Vissing-Jorgensen
{"title":"ECB Policies Involving Government Bond Purchases: Impact and Channels","authors":"A. Krishnamurthy, S. Nagel, Annette Vissing-Jorgensen","doi":"10.3386/W23985","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W23985","url":null,"abstract":"We evaluate the effects of three ECB policies (the Securities Markets Programme, the Outright Monetary Transactions, and the Long-Term Refinancing Operations) on government bond yields. We use a novel Kalman-filter augmented event-study approach and yields on euro-denominated sovereign bonds, dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, corporate bonds, and corporate CDS rates to understand the channels through which policies reduced sovereign bond yields. On average across Italy, Spain and Portugal, considering both the Securities Markets Programme and the Outright Monetary Transactions, yields fall considerably. Decomposing this fall, default risk accounts for 37% of the reduction in yields, reduced redenomination risk for 13%, and reduced market segmentation effects for 50%. Stock price increases in distressed and core countries suggest that these policies also had beneficial macro-spillovers.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78676066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 174
Daily Price Limits and Destructive Market Behavior 每日价格限制和破坏性的市场行为
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.3386/w24014
Ting Chen, Zhenyu Gao, Jibao He, Wenxi Jiang, Wei Xiong
{"title":"Daily Price Limits and Destructive Market Behavior","authors":"Ting Chen, Zhenyu Gao, Jibao He, Wenxi Jiang, Wei Xiong","doi":"10.3386/w24014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w24014","url":null,"abstract":"We use account-level data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange to show that daily price limits, a widely adopted market stabilization mechanism, may lead to unintended, destructive market behavior: large investors tend to buy on the day when a stock hits the 10% upper price limit and then sell on the next day; and their net buying on the limit-hitting day predicts stronger long-run price reversal. We also analyze a sample of special treatment (ST) stocks, which face tighter 5% daily price limits, and provide a causal validation from comparing market dynamics before and after they are assigned the ST status.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w24014","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147894246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Pass-Through of Input Cost Shocks Under Imperfect Competition: Evidence from the U.S. Fracking Boom 不完全竞争下投入成本冲击的传递:来自美国水力压裂热潮的证据
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.3386/W24025
E. Muehlegger, R. Sweeney
{"title":"Pass-Through of Input Cost Shocks Under Imperfect Competition: Evidence from the U.S. Fracking Boom","authors":"E. Muehlegger, R. Sweeney","doi":"10.3386/W24025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W24025","url":null,"abstract":"The advent of hydraulic fracturing lead to a dramatic increase in US oil production. Due to regulatory, shipping and processing constraints, this sudden surge in domestic drilling caused an unprecedented divergence in crude acquisition costs across US refineries. We take advantage of this exogenous shock to input costs to study the nature of competition and the incidence of cost changes in this important industry. We begin by estimating the extent to which US refining’s divergence from global crude markets was passed on to consumers. Using rich microdata, we are able to decompose the effects of firm-specific, market-specific and industry-wide cost shocks on refined product prices. We show that this distinction has important economic and econometric significance, and discuss the implications for prospective policy which would put a price on carbon emissions. The implications of these results for perennial questions about competition in the refining industry are also discussed.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86298565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 22
Can Audits Backfire? Evidence from Public Procurement in Chile 审计会适得其反吗?来自智利公共采购的证据
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2017-10-26 DOI: 10.3386/W23978
M. Gerardino, S. Litschig, D. Pomeranz
{"title":"Can Audits Backfire? Evidence from Public Procurement in Chile","authors":"M. Gerardino, S. Litschig, D. Pomeranz","doi":"10.3386/W23978","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W23978","url":null,"abstract":"Audits are generally intended to monitor compliance with existing rules. However, audits can also create unintended impacts and incentives through the specific protocol by which they are executed. In particular, audits can discourage the use of complex administrative procedures with more rules for auditors to check. This paper investigates the effects of procurement audits on public entities' choice of purchase procedures in Chile. While the national procurement legislation tries to promote the use of more transparent and competitive auctions rather than discretionary direct contracts for selection of suppliers, auctions are significantly more complex and the audit protocol mechanically leads to more scrutiny and a higher probability of further investigation for auctions than for direct contracts. Using a regression discontinuity design based on a scoring rule of the National Comptroller Agency, we find that audits lead to a decrease in the use of auctions and a corresponding increase in the use of direct contracts. In order to further test the underlying mechanism, we develop a new approach to conduct subgroup analysis in regression discontinuity designs while holding other observables constant.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87300612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 31
The Perils of Voter Mobilization 选民动员的危险
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2017-10-20 DOI: 10.3386/w23946
Benjamin M. Marx, V. Pons, T. Suri
{"title":"The Perils of Voter Mobilization","authors":"Benjamin M. Marx, V. Pons, T. Suri","doi":"10.3386/w23946","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w23946","url":null,"abstract":"Voter mobilization campaigns face trade-offs in young democracies. In a large-scale experiment implemented in 2013 with the Kenyan Electoral Commission (IEBC), text messages intended to mobilize voters boosted participation but also decreased trust in electoral institutions after the election, a decrease that was stronger in areas that experienced election-related violence, and for individuals on the losing side of the election. The mobilization backfired because the IEBC promised an electronic voting system that failed, resulting in manual voting and tallying delays. Using a simple model, we show signaling high institutional capacity via a mobilization campaign can negatively affect beliefs about the fairness of the election.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"150 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72684940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 13
Weighting for External Validity 外部效度加权
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2017-09-15 DOI: 10.3386/W23826
Isaiah Andrews, E. Oster
{"title":"Weighting for External Validity","authors":"Isaiah Andrews, E. Oster","doi":"10.3386/W23826","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W23826","url":null,"abstract":"External validity is a fundamental challenge in treatment effect estimation. Even when researchers credibly identify average treatment effects – for example through randomized experiments – the results may not extrapolate to the population of interest for a given policy question. If the population and sample differ only in the distribution of observed variables this problem has a well-known solution: reweight the sample to match the population. In many cases, however, the population and sample differ along dimensions unobserved by the researcher. We provide a tractable framework for thinking about external validity in such cases. Our approach relies on the fact that when the sample is drawn from the same support as the population of interest there exist weights which, if known, would allow us to reweight the sample to match the population. These weights are larger in a stochastic sense when the sample is more selected, and their correlation with a given variable reflects the intensity of selection along this dimension. We suggest natural benchmarks for assessing external validity, discuss implementation, and apply our results to data from several recent experiments.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86680579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 34
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