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Scalable Price Targeting 可扩展的价格定位
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2017-09-08 DOI: 10.3386/W23775
Jean-Pierre Dubé, S. Misra
{"title":"Scalable Price Targeting","authors":"Jean-Pierre Dubé, S. Misra","doi":"10.3386/W23775","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W23775","url":null,"abstract":"We study the welfare implications of scalable price targeting, an extreme form of third-degree price discrimination implemented with machine learning for a large, digital firm. Targeted prices are computed by solving the firm's Bayesian Decision-Theoretic pricing problem based on a database with a high-dimensional vector of customer features that are observed prior to the price quote. To identify the causal effect of price on demand, we first run a large, randomized price experiment and use these data to train our demand model. We use l1 regularization (lasso) to select the set of customer features that moderate the heterogeneous treatment effect of price on demand. We use a weighted likelihood Bayesian bootstrap to quantify the firm's approximate statistical uncertainty in demand and profitability. We then conduct a second experiment that implements our proposed price targeting scheme out of sample. Theoretically, both firm and customer surplus could rise with scalable price targeting. Optimized uniform pricing improves revenues by 64.9% relative to the control pricing, whereas scalable price targeting improves revenues by 81.5%. Firm profits increase by over 10% under targeted pricing relative to optimal uniform pricing. Customer surplus declines by less than 1% with price targeting; although nearly 70% of customers are charged less than the uniform price. Our weighted likelihood bootstrap estimator also predicts demand and demand uncertainty out of sample better than several alternative approaches.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79738029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 55
Federalism, Partial Prohibition, and Cross-Border Sales: Evidence from Recreational Marijuana 联邦制、部分禁止和跨境销售:来自娱乐性大麻的证据
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2017-08-31 DOI: 10.3386/W23762
Benjamin Hansen, Benjamin Hansen, Benjamin Hansen, Keaton S. Miller, Caroline Weber
{"title":"Federalism, Partial Prohibition, and Cross-Border Sales: Evidence from Recreational Marijuana","authors":"Benjamin Hansen, Benjamin Hansen, Benjamin Hansen, Keaton S. Miller, Caroline Weber","doi":"10.3386/W23762","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W23762","url":null,"abstract":"Marijuana is partially prohibited: though banned federally, it is available to 1 in 4 U.S. adults under state statutes. We measure the size of the interstate trade generated by state-level differences in legal status with a natural experiment: Oregon allowed stores to sell marijuana for recreational use on October 1, 2015, next to Washington where stores had been selling recreational marijuana since July 2014. Using administrative data covering the universe of Washington's sales and a differences-in-discontinuities approach, we find retailers along the Oregon border experienced a 36 percent decline in sales immediately after Oregon's market opened. We investigate the home location of recent online reviewers of marijuana retailers and find similar cross-border patterns. By the end of Washington's 2018 fiscal year, our results imply that Washington had earned between $44 million and $75 million in tax revenue from cross-border shoppers. These cross-border incentives may create a “race to legalize.”","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78831629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The Taxation of Recreational Marijuana: Evidence from Washington State 娱乐性大麻的税收:来自华盛顿州的证据
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2017-07-27 DOI: 10.3386/W23632
Benjamin C. Hansen, Keaton S. Miller, C. Weber
{"title":"The Taxation of Recreational Marijuana: Evidence from Washington State","authors":"Benjamin C. Hansen, Keaton S. Miller, C. Weber","doi":"10.3386/W23632","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W23632","url":null,"abstract":"The median United States voter supports the legalization of marijuana, at least in part due to a desire to increase state tax revenues. However, states with legal markets have implemented wildly different regulatory schemes with tax rates ranging from 3.75 to 37 percent, indicating that policy makers have a range of beliefs about industry responses to taxes and regulation. We examine a policy reform in Washington: a switch from a 25 percent gross receipts tax collected at every step in the supply chain to a sole 37 percent excise tax at retail. Using novel, comprehensive administrative data, we assess responses to the reform throughout the supply and consumption chain. We find the previous tax regime provided strong incentives for vertical integration. Tax invariance did not hold, with some types of firms benefiting much more than predicted. Consumers bear 44 percent of the additional retail tax burden. Finally, we find evidence that consumer demand for marijuana is price-inelastic in the short-run, but becomes price-elastic within a few weeks of a price increase.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"128 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79260796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 38
Juvenile Punishment, High School Graduation and Adult Crime: Evidence from Idiosyncratic Judge Harshness 青少年刑罚、高中毕业与成人犯罪:来自法官异常严厉的证据
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2017-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/W23573
Ozkan Eren, N. Mocan, N. Mocan
{"title":"Juvenile Punishment, High School Graduation and Adult Crime: Evidence from Idiosyncratic Judge Harshness","authors":"Ozkan Eren, N. Mocan, N. Mocan","doi":"10.3386/W23573","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W23573","url":null,"abstract":"This paper contributes to the debate on the impact of juvenile punishment on adult criminal recidivism and high school completion. We link the universe of case files of those who were convicted of a crime as a juvenile between 1996 and 2012 in a southern U.S. state to the public school administrative records and to adult criminal records. The detail of the data allows us to utilize information on the exact types of crimes committed, as well as the type and duration of punishment imposed, both as a juvenile and as an adult. We exploit random assignment of cases to judges and use idiosyncratic judge stringency in imprisonment to estimate the causal effect of incarceration on adult crime and on high school completion. Incarceration has a detrimental impact on high school completion for earlier cohorts, but it has no impact on later cohorts, arguably because of the school reform implemented in the state in the late 1990s. We find that incarceration as a juvenile has no impact on future violent crime, but it lowers the propensity to commit property crime. Juvenile incarceration increases the propensity of being convicted for a drug offense in adulthood, but this effect is largely driven by time spent in prison as a juvenile. Specifically, juvenile incarceration has no statistically significant impact on adult drug offenses if time spent in prison is less than the median, but longer incarceration increases adult drug conviction, arguably because longer prison stays intensify emotional stress, leading to drug use.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74932824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 19
Identifying the Effect of Election Closeness on Voter Turnout: Evidence from Swiss Referenda 选举接近度对选民投票率的影响:来自瑞士公投的证据
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.3386/w23490
Leonardo Bursztyn, Davide Cantoni, Patricia Funk, Felix Schönenberger, Noam Yuchtman
{"title":"Identifying the Effect of Election Closeness on Voter Turnout: Evidence from Swiss Referenda","authors":"Leonardo Bursztyn, Davide Cantoni, Patricia Funk, Felix Schönenberger, Noam Yuchtman","doi":"10.3386/w23490","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w23490","url":null,"abstract":"We provide evidence of a causal effect of anticipated election closeness on voter turnout, exploiting the precise day-level timing of the release of Swiss national poll results for high-stakes federal referenda, and a novel dataset on daily mail-in voting for the canton of Geneva. Using an event study design, we find that the release of a closer poll causes voter turnout to sharply rise immediately after poll release, with no differential pre-release turnout levels or trends. We provide evidence that polls affect turnout by providing information shaping beliefs about closeness: first, the introduction of Swiss polls had significantly larger effects in politically unrepresentative municipalities, where locally available signals of closeness are less correlated with national closeness. Second, the effects of close polls are largest where newspapers report on them most. Counterfactual exercises suggest the importance of polls and reporting on polls in shaping election outcomes.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"104 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76468527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
China's Lost Generation: Changes in Beliefs and Their Intergenerational Transmission 中国迷惘的一代:信仰的变化及其代际传递
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2017-05-25 DOI: 10.3386/W23441
G. Roland, David Y. Yang
{"title":"China's Lost Generation: Changes in Beliefs and Their Intergenerational Transmission","authors":"G. Roland, David Y. Yang","doi":"10.3386/W23441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W23441","url":null,"abstract":"Beliefs about whether effort pays off govern some of the most fundamental choices individuals make. This paper uses China’s Cultural Revolution to understand how these beliefs can be affected, how they impact behavior, and how they are transmitted across generations. During the Cultural Revolution, China’s college admission system based on entrance exams was suspended for a decade until 1976, effectively depriving an entire generation of young people of the opportunity to access higher education (the “lost generation”). Using data from a nationally representative survey, we compare cohorts who graduated from high school just before and after the college entrance exam was resumed. We find that members of the “lost generation” who missed out on college because they were born just a year or two too early believe that effort pays off to a much lesser degree, even 40 years into their adulthood. However, they invested more in their children’s education, and transmitted less of their changed beliefs to the next generation, suggesting attempts to safeguard their children from sharing their misfortunes.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90579109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 18
Is Preventive Care Worth the Cost? Evidence from Mandatory Checkups in Japan 预防保健值得花钱吗?来自日本强制体检的证据
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2017-05-18 DOI: 10.3386/W23413
Toshiaki Iizuka, Katsuhiko Nishiyama, Brian K Chen, K. Eggleston
{"title":"Is Preventive Care Worth the Cost? Evidence from Mandatory Checkups in Japan","authors":"Toshiaki Iizuka, Katsuhiko Nishiyama, Brian K Chen, K. Eggleston","doi":"10.3386/W23413","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W23413","url":null,"abstract":"Using unique individual-level panel data, we investigate whether preventive medical care triggered by health checkups is worth the cost. We exploit the fact that biomarkers just below and above a threshold may be viewed as random. We find that people respond to health signals and increase physician visits. However, we find no evidence that additional care is cost effective. For the “borderline type” (“pre-diabetes”) threshold for diabetes, medical care utilization increases but neither physical measures nor predicted risks of mortality or serious complications improve. For efficient use of medical resources, cost effectiveness of preventive care must be carefully examined.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78645734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
Health Insurance and Traffic Fatalities: The Effects of Substance Use Disorder Parity Laws 健康保险和交通事故:物质使用障碍均等法的影响
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2017-05-04 DOI: 10.3386/W23388
Ioana Popovici, J. Maclean, Michael T. French
{"title":"Health Insurance and Traffic Fatalities: The Effects of Substance Use Disorder Parity Laws","authors":"Ioana Popovici, J. Maclean, Michael T. French","doi":"10.3386/W23388","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W23388","url":null,"abstract":"Each year, approximately 10,000 individuals die in alcohol-impaired traffic crashes in the United States, while psychoactive drugs are involved in 20% of all fatal traffic crashes. In this study, we investigate whether state-specific parity laws for substance use disorder (SUD) treatment have the added benefit of reducing traffic fatalities. Parity laws compel insurers to generously cover SUD treatment in private markets, thereby reducing the financial costs of and increasing access to treatment for beneficiaries. We employ 23 years of administrative data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) coupled with a differences-in-differences design to investigate the potential spillover effects of parity laws to traffic safety. Our findings indicate that passage of a parity law reduces traffic fatality rates by 5.8 to 8.6%. We also find that passage of parity laws reduces fatal alcohol poisonings and psychoactive drug overdoses. These findings suggest that government regulations requiring insurers to cover SUD treatment can significantly improve traffic safety, possibly by reducing the number of impaired drivers on roadways.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81168968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Did Inequality in Farm Sizes Lead to Suppression of Banking and Credit in the Late Nineteenth Century 19世纪后期，农场规模的不平等导致了银行和信贷的抑制吗
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2017-04-27 DOI: 10.3386/W23348
Matthew S. Jaremski, P. Fishback
{"title":"Did Inequality in Farm Sizes Lead to Suppression of Banking and Credit in the Late Nineteenth Century","authors":"Matthew S. Jaremski, P. Fishback","doi":"10.3386/W23348","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W23348","url":null,"abstract":"This paper creates a new database that covers all banks in the United States in the census years between 1870 and 1900 to test the interaction between inequality and financial development when the banking system was starting over from scratch. A fixed-effects panel regression shows that the number of banks per thousand people in the South has a strong positive relationship with the size of farm operations. This suggests that large Southern farm operators welcomed new banks after the Civil War. When the analysis is extended into the 1900s, the relationship becomes more negative, as bankers may have tried to block entrants.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80327843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
China's GDP Growth May be Understated 中国的GDP增长可能被低估
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2017-04-14 DOI: 10.3386/W23323
Hunter L. Clark, M. Pinkovskiy, Xavier Sala-i-Martin
{"title":"China's GDP Growth May be Understated","authors":"Hunter L. Clark, M. Pinkovskiy, Xavier Sala-i-Martin","doi":"10.3386/W23323","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W23323","url":null,"abstract":"Concerns about the quality of China’s official GDP statistics have been a perennial question in understanding its economic dynamics. We use data on satellite-recorded nighttime lights as an independent benchmark for comparing various published indicators of the state of the Chinese economy. Using the methodology of Pinkovskiy and Sala-i-Martin (2016a and b), we exploit nighttime lights to compute the optimal weights for various Chinese economic indicators in a best unbiased predictor of Chinese growth rates. Our computations of Chinese growth based on optimal weightings of various combinations of economic indicators provide evidence against the hypothesis that the Chinese economy contracted precipitously in late 2015, and are consistent with the rate of Chinese growth being higher than is reported in the official statistics.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75698932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 51
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