National Bureau of Economic Research最新文献

Maximum Employment and the Participation Cycle 最大就业和参与周期

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.3386/w29222

B. Hobijn, A. Sahin

{"title":"Maximum Employment and the Participation Cycle","authors":"B. Hobijn, A. Sahin","doi":"10.3386/w29222","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w29222","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the source, magnitude, and unevenness of the procyclical forces that shape labor force participation, i.e., the participation cycle, which are important for the implementation of the maximum employment mandate. We show that these forces can be analyzed in real time using a flow decomposition of the changes in the labor force participation rate. The decomposition reveals that the source of the participation cycle is fluctuations in job-loss and job-finding rates, rather than cyclical movements in labor force entry and exit rates. The magnitude of the participation cycle is large. Cyclical downward pressures on employment from participation are two-thirds that of unemployment. Moreover, the participation cycle delays the recovery in employment because it lags the unemployment cycle. It also amplifies the unevenness of the impact of recessions. Groups that see large increases in their unemployment rates also experience more pronounced participation cycles. Despite differences in their magnitudes, the source of the participation cycle is the same for all groups. Application of our method to the COVID-19 Recession suggests that, as of June 2021, the bulk of the drop in the participation rate since the onset of the pandemic is cyclical and that the cyclical recovery in participation likely will trail that of the unemployment rate.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"97 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85324977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 10

Gay Politics Goes Mainstream: Democrats, Republicans, and Same-Sex Relationships 同性恋政治走向主流:民主党、共和党和同性关系

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-07-26 DOI: 10.3386/W29062

Raquel Fernández, Sahar Parsa

引用次数: 2

Which Markets (Don't) Drive Pharmaceutical Innovation? Evidence From U.S. Medicaid Expansions 哪些市场(不)推动制药创新?来自美国医疗补助扩张的证据

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-05-10 DOI: 10.3386/W28755

Craig L. Garthwaite, Rebecca M. Sachs, A. Stern

引用次数: 4

Welfare and Output with Income Effects and Taste Shocks 收入效应与品味冲击下的福利与产出

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-05-10 DOI: 10.3386/W28754

D. Baqaee, Ariel T. Burstein

引用次数: 18

School Reopenings, Mobility, and COVID-19 Spread: Evidence from Texas 学校复课、流动性和COVID-19传播:来自德克萨斯州的证据

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-05-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28753

Charles Courtemanche, A. Le, Aaron Yelowitz, R. Zimmer

{"title":"School Reopenings, Mobility, and COVID-19 Spread: Evidence from Texas","authors":"Charles Courtemanche, A. Le, Aaron Yelowitz, R. Zimmer","doi":"10.3386/W28753","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28753","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the effect of fall 2020 school reopenings in Texas on county-level COVID-19 cases and fatalities. Previous evidence suggests that schools can be reopened safely if community spread is low and public health guidelines are followed. However, in Texas, reopenings often occurred alongside high community spread and at near capacity, making it difficult to meet social distancing recommendations. Using event-study models and hand-collected instruction modality and start dates for all school districts, we find robust evidence that reopening Texas schools gradually but substantially accelerated the community spread of COVID-19. Results from our preferred specification imply that school reopenings led to at least 43,000 additional COVID-19 cases and 800 additional fatalities within the first two months. We then use SafeGraph mobility data to provide evidence that spillovers to adults’ behaviors contributed to these large effects. Median time spent outside the home on a typical weekday increased substantially in neighborhoods with large numbers of school-age children, suggesting a return to in-person work or increased outside-of-home leisure activities among parents.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81757441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 38

Back to School: The Effect of School Visits During COVID-19 on COVID-19 Transmission 重返校园:COVID-19期间学校访问对COVID-19传播的影响

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-04-05 DOI: 10.3386/W28645

D. Bravata, J. Cantor, N. Sood, C. Whaley

{"title":"Back to School: The Effect of School Visits During COVID-19 on COVID-19 Transmission","authors":"D. Bravata, J. Cantor, N. Sood, C. Whaley","doi":"10.3386/W28645","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28645","url":null,"abstract":"Schools across the United States and the world have been closed in an effort to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. However, the effect of school closure on COVID-19 transmission remains unclear. We estimate the causal effect of changes in the number of weekly visits to schools on COVID-19 transmission using a triple difference approach. In particular, we measure the effect of changes in county-level visits to schools on changes in COVID-19 diagnoses for households with school-age children relative to changes in COVID-19 diagnoses for households without school-age children. We use a data set from the first 46 weeks of 2020 with 130 million household-week level observations that includes COVID-19 diagnoses merged to school visit tracking data from millions of mobile phones. We find that increases in county-level in-person visits to schools lead to an increase in COVID-19 diagnoses among households with children relative to households without school-age children. However, the effects are small in magnitude. A move from the 25th to the 75th percentile of county-level school visits translates to a 0.3 per 10,000 household increase in COVID-19 diagnoses. This change translates to a 3.2 percent relative increase. We find larger differences in low-income counties, in counties with higher COVID-19 prevalence, and at later stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"51 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81011491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 24

Income Dynamics in Sweden 1985-2016 1985-2016年瑞典收入动态

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-03-08 DOI: 10.3386/W28527

Benjamin U. Friedrich, Lisa Laun, C. Meghir

引用次数: 6

COVID-19 Has Strengthened the Relationship Between Alcohol Consumption and Domestic Violence COVID-19强化了酒精消费与家庭暴力之间的关系

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-03-08 DOI: 10.3386/W28523

Aaron Chalfin, S. Danagoulian, Monica Deza

引用次数: 14

Scope Challenges to Social Impact 社会影响的范围挑战

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-02-08 DOI: 10.3386/W28406

Monica P Bhatt, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Anuj K. Shah

引用次数: 2

The Effects of Negative Equity on Children’s Educational Outcomes 负公平对儿童教育成果的影响

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-02-08 DOI: 10.3386/W28428

Vicki Been, I. Ellen, David N. Figlio, A. Nelson, Stephen L. Ross, A. Schwartz, Leanna Stiefel

{"title":"The Effects of Negative Equity on Children’s Educational Outcomes","authors":"Vicki Been, I. Ellen, David N. Figlio, A. Nelson, Stephen L. Ross, A. Schwartz, Leanna Stiefel","doi":"10.3386/W28428","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28428","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the effects of negative equity on children’s academic performance, using data on children attending Florida public schools and housing transactions from the State of Florida. Our empirical strategy exploits variation over time in the timing of family moves to Florida in order to account for household sorting into neighborhoods and schools and selection into initial mortgage terms. In contrast to the existing literature on foreclosure and children’s outcomes, we find that Florida students with the highest risk of negative equity exhibit significantly higher test score growth. These effects are largest among Black students and students who qualify for free or reduced-priced lunch. We find evidence supporting two underlying mechanisms: (1) consumption patterns suggest that families in negative equity may reduce the impact of income losses on consumption by forgoing mortgage payments, and (2) mobility patterns suggest that families exposed to high levels of negative equity may move to schools that are of higher quality on average. While negative equity and foreclosure are undesirable, the changing incentives in terms of mortgage delinquency may have helped families manage the economic shocks caused by the great recession, as well as temporarily reduced the housing market barriers faced by low income households when attempting to access educational opportunities.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"107 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85582780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2