Jorge Luis García, Patrick Warren, Lynn Ann Watson
{"title":"Basic Income and the Dynamics of Employment and Human Capital in a Non-Urban Disadvantaged Setting","authors":"Jorge Luis García, Patrick Warren, Lynn Ann Watson","doi":"10.3386/w33891","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w33891","url":null,"abstract":"Why and when could basic income inhibit employment?We randomize 200 dollars of basic income per month for two years within a non-urban disadvantaged sample tracked using high-frequency administrative data.The amount provided is 21% of average all-source income.In the short term (0.5 years after baseline), relative to the control group, treatment-group employment decreases by 58%, average all-source income remains constant, and health-investment rates increase.In the longer term (1.25 years after baseline), employment and health-investment rates revert to their control-group counterparts.Treatment participants receive basic income, take time off work, address health needs, and, subsequently, reintegrate into employment.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w33891","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147888799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Long-Run Impacts of Banning Affirmative Action in US Higher Education","authors":"Francisca Antman, Brian Duncan, Michael Lovenheim","doi":"10.3386/w32778","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w32778","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates the long-run impacts of banning affirmative action on men and women from under-represented minority (URM) racial and ethnic groups in the United States.Using data from the US Census and American Community Survey, we use a difference-in-differences framework to compare the college degree completion, graduate degree completion, earnings, and employment of URM individuals to non-URM individuals before and after affirmative action bans went into effect across several US states.We also employ event study analyses and alternative estimators to confirm the validity of our approach and discuss the generalizability of the findings.Results suggest that banning affirmative action results in a decline in URM women's college degree completion, earnings, and employment relative to non-Hispanic White women, driven largely by impacts on Hispanic women.Thus, affirmative action bans resulted in an increase in racial/ethnic disparities in both college degree completion and earnings among women.Effects on URM men are more ambiguous and indicate significant heterogeneity across states, with some estimates pointing to a possible positive impact on labor market outcomes of Black men.These results suggest that the relative magnitude of college quality versus mismatch effects vary for URM men and women and highlight the importance of disaggregating results by gender, race, and ethnicity.We conclude by discussing how our results compare with others in the literature and directions for future research.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w32778","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147914755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Tax Incentives for Charitable Giving: New Findings from the TCJA","authors":"Xiao Han, Daniel Hungerman, Mark Ottoni–Wilhelm","doi":"10.3386/w32737","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w32737","url":null,"abstract":"The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act eliminated federal charitable giving incentives for roughly 20 percent of US income-tax payers.We study the impact of this on giving.Basic theory and our empirical results suggest heterogeneous effects for taxpayers with different amounts of itemizable expenses.Overall, the reform decreased charitable giving by about $20 billion annually.Using a new method to adjust estimates for retimed giving, we find evidence of moderate intertemporal shifts from pre-announcement of the law.The permanent price elasticity of giving estimates range from .6 for the average donor to over 2 for those predicted to be most responsive to the reform.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w32737","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147911341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kathryn Baragwanath Vogel, Gordon Hanson, Amit Khandelwal, Chen Liu, Hogeun Park
{"title":"Using Satellite Imagery to Detect the Impacts of New Highways: An Application to India","authors":"Kathryn Baragwanath Vogel, Gordon Hanson, Amit Khandelwal, Chen Liu, Hogeun Park","doi":"10.3386/w32047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w32047","url":null,"abstract":"This paper integrates daytime and nighttime satellite imagery into a spatial general-equilibrium model to evaluate the returns to investments in new motorways.Our approach has particular value in developing-country settings in which spatially granular economic data are scarce.To demonstrate our method, we use publicly available imagery to evaluate India's road construction projects in the early 2000s.Estimating the model and evaluating welfare impacts only requires remotely-sensed data.We find that India's road investments improved aggregate welfare, particularly for the largest and smallest urban markets.Most welfare gains accrued within Indian districts-the unit of analysis in conventional approaches-which demonstrates the benefits of using of high-resolution satellite imagery.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w32047","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147921639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Five Myths About Carbon Pricing","authors":"Gilbert E. Metcalf","doi":"10.3386/w31104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w31104","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w31104","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147916054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Maximum Employment and the Participation Cycle","authors":"B. Hobijn, A. Sahin","doi":"10.3386/w29222","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w29222","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the source, magnitude, and unevenness of the procyclical forces that shape labor force participation, i.e., the participation cycle, which are important for the implementation of the maximum employment mandate. We show that these forces can be analyzed in real time using a flow decomposition of the changes in the labor force participation rate. The decomposition reveals that the source of the participation cycle is fluctuations in job-loss and job-finding rates, rather than cyclical movements in labor force entry and exit rates. The magnitude of the participation cycle is large. Cyclical downward pressures on employment from participation are two-thirds that of unemployment. Moreover, the participation cycle delays the recovery in employment because it lags the unemployment cycle. It also amplifies the unevenness of the impact of recessions. Groups that see large increases in their unemployment rates also experience more pronounced participation cycles. Despite differences in their magnitudes, the source of the participation cycle is the same for all groups. Application of our method to the COVID-19 Recession suggests that, as of June 2021, the bulk of the drop in the participation rate since the onset of the pandemic is cyclical and that the cyclical recovery in participation likely will trail that of the unemployment rate.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"97 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85324977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Gay Politics Goes Mainstream: Democrats, Republicans, and Same-Sex Relationships","authors":"Raquel Fernández, Sahar Parsa","doi":"10.3386/W29062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W29062","url":null,"abstract":"Attitudes towards same-sex relationships in the US have changed radically over a relatively short period of time. After remaining fairly constant for over two decades, opinions became more favorable starting in 1992—a presidential election year in which the Democratic and Republican parties took opposing stands over the status of gay people in society. What roles did political parties and their leaders play in this process of cultural change? Using a variety of techniques including machine learning, we show that the partisan opinion gap emerged substantially prior to 1992—in the mid 1980s —and did not increase as a result of the political debates in 1992-'93. Furthermore, we identify people with a college-and-above education as the potential \"leaders\" of the process of partisan divergence.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83028805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Which Markets (Don't) Drive Pharmaceutical Innovation? Evidence From U.S. Medicaid Expansions","authors":"Craig L. Garthwaite, Rebecca M. Sachs, A. Stern","doi":"10.3386/W28755","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28755","url":null,"abstract":"Pharmaceutical innovation policy involves managing a tradeoff between high prices for new products in the short-term and stronger incentives to develop products for the future. Prior research has documented a causal relationship between market size and pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) activities. The existing literature, however, provides no evidence of how this relationship varies across markets. We investigate whether recent expansions in state Medicaid programs caused an increase in R&D. We find no evidence of a response, potentially a result of Medicaid’s low reimbursement for pharmaceuticals, suggesting low(er) price markets may have different dynamics with respect to innovation policy.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88048603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Welfare and Output with Income Effects and Taste Shocks","authors":"D. Baqaee, Ariel T. Burstein","doi":"10.3386/W28754","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28754","url":null,"abstract":"We provide a non-parametric characterization of how welfare responds to changes in budget and production possibility sets when preferences are non-homothetic or subject to shocks, in both partial and general equilibrium. We generalize Hulten’s theorem, which is the basis for constructing aggregate quantities, to this context. We identify a new bias in measures of real consumption. This bias depends on the covariance of price changes and expenditure changes due to income effects or preference shocks. We apply our results to long-run and short-run phenomena. In the long-run, we show that structural transformation, if caused by income effects, is roughly twice as important for welfare than what is implied by standard measures of Baumol’s cost disease. In the short-run, we show that when firms’ demand shocks are correlated with their supply shocks, industry-level price and output indices are biased, and this bias does not disappear in the aggregate. Finally, we show that correlated supply and demand shifters make real GDP and aggregate TFP unreliable metrics for measuring production and productivity, and illustrate this using the Covid-19 crisis.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"120 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77434376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Charles Courtemanche, A. Le, Aaron Yelowitz, R. Zimmer
{"title":"School Reopenings, Mobility, and COVID-19 Spread: Evidence from Texas","authors":"Charles Courtemanche, A. Le, Aaron Yelowitz, R. Zimmer","doi":"10.3386/W28753","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28753","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the effect of fall 2020 school reopenings in Texas on county-level COVID-19 cases and fatalities. Previous evidence suggests that schools can be reopened safely if community spread is low and public health guidelines are followed. However, in Texas, reopenings often occurred alongside high community spread and at near capacity, making it difficult to meet social distancing recommendations. Using event-study models and hand-collected instruction modality and start dates for all school districts, we find robust evidence that reopening Texas schools gradually but substantially accelerated the community spread of COVID-19. Results from our preferred specification imply that school reopenings led to at least 43,000 additional COVID-19 cases and 800 additional fatalities within the first two months. We then use SafeGraph mobility data to provide evidence that spillovers to adults’ behaviors contributed to these large effects. Median time spent outside the home on a typical weekday increased substantially in neighborhoods with large numbers of school-age children, suggesting a return to in-person work or increased outside-of-home leisure activities among parents.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81757441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}