National Bureau of Economic Research最新文献_第2页

Back to School: The Effect of School Visits During COVID-19 on COVID-19 Transmission 重返校园:COVID-19期间学校访问对COVID-19传播的影响

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-04-05 DOI: 10.3386/W28645

D. Bravata, J. Cantor, N. Sood, C. Whaley

{"title":"Back to School: The Effect of School Visits During COVID-19 on COVID-19 Transmission","authors":"D. Bravata, J. Cantor, N. Sood, C. Whaley","doi":"10.3386/W28645","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28645","url":null,"abstract":"Schools across the United States and the world have been closed in an effort to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. However, the effect of school closure on COVID-19 transmission remains unclear. We estimate the causal effect of changes in the number of weekly visits to schools on COVID-19 transmission using a triple difference approach. In particular, we measure the effect of changes in county-level visits to schools on changes in COVID-19 diagnoses for households with school-age children relative to changes in COVID-19 diagnoses for households without school-age children. We use a data set from the first 46 weeks of 2020 with 130 million household-week level observations that includes COVID-19 diagnoses merged to school visit tracking data from millions of mobile phones. We find that increases in county-level in-person visits to schools lead to an increase in COVID-19 diagnoses among households with children relative to households without school-age children. However, the effects are small in magnitude. A move from the 25th to the 75th percentile of county-level school visits translates to a 0.3 per 10,000 household increase in COVID-19 diagnoses. This change translates to a 3.2 percent relative increase. We find larger differences in low-income counties, in counties with higher COVID-19 prevalence, and at later stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"51 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81011491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 24

Income Dynamics in Sweden 1985-2016 1985-2016年瑞典收入动态

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-03-08 DOI: 10.3386/W28527

Benjamin U. Friedrich, Lisa Laun, C. Meghir

引用次数: 6

COVID-19 Has Strengthened the Relationship Between Alcohol Consumption and Domestic Violence COVID-19强化了酒精消费与家庭暴力之间的关系

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-03-08 DOI: 10.3386/W28523

Aaron Chalfin, S. Danagoulian, Monica Deza

引用次数: 14

Scope Challenges to Social Impact 社会影响的范围挑战

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-02-08 DOI: 10.3386/W28406

Monica P Bhatt, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Anuj K. Shah

引用次数: 2

The Effects of Negative Equity on Children’s Educational Outcomes 负公平对儿童教育成果的影响

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-02-08 DOI: 10.3386/W28428

Vicki Been, I. Ellen, David N. Figlio, A. Nelson, Stephen L. Ross, A. Schwartz, Leanna Stiefel

{"title":"The Effects of Negative Equity on Children’s Educational Outcomes","authors":"Vicki Been, I. Ellen, David N. Figlio, A. Nelson, Stephen L. Ross, A. Schwartz, Leanna Stiefel","doi":"10.3386/W28428","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28428","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the effects of negative equity on children’s academic performance, using data on children attending Florida public schools and housing transactions from the State of Florida. Our empirical strategy exploits variation over time in the timing of family moves to Florida in order to account for household sorting into neighborhoods and schools and selection into initial mortgage terms. In contrast to the existing literature on foreclosure and children’s outcomes, we find that Florida students with the highest risk of negative equity exhibit significantly higher test score growth. These effects are largest among Black students and students who qualify for free or reduced-priced lunch. We find evidence supporting two underlying mechanisms: (1) consumption patterns suggest that families in negative equity may reduce the impact of income losses on consumption by forgoing mortgage payments, and (2) mobility patterns suggest that families exposed to high levels of negative equity may move to schools that are of higher quality on average. While negative equity and foreclosure are undesirable, the changing incentives in terms of mortgage delinquency may have helped families manage the economic shocks caused by the great recession, as well as temporarily reduced the housing market barriers faced by low income households when attempting to access educational opportunities.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"107 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85582780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Vaccination Planning under Uncertainty, with Application to Covid-19 不确定性下的疫苗接种规划，应用于Covid-19

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28446

C. Manski

{"title":"Vaccination Planning under Uncertainty, with Application to Covid-19","authors":"C. Manski","doi":"10.3386/W28446","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28446","url":null,"abstract":"Vaccination against infectious disease may be beneficial to reduce illness in vaccinated persons and disease transmission across the population. The welfare-economic practice of specifying a social welfare function and considering a planner who seeks to optimize welfare provides a constructive framework to evaluate vaccination policy. This paper characterizes choice of vaccination policy as a planning problem that aims to minimize the social cost of illness and vaccination. Manski (2010, 2017) studied vaccination as a problem of planning under uncertainty, assuming that a planner can choose any vaccination rate or that the planner has only two options: mandate or decentralize vaccination. The analysis focused on uncertainty regarding the effect of vaccination on disease transmission. Here I weaken the assumptions to recognize multiple uncertainties relevant to evaluation of policy for vaccination against COVID-19. These include uncertainty not only about the effect of vaccination on disease transmission, but also about the fraction of susceptible persons in the population, the effectiveness of vaccination in reducing illness and infectiousness, and the health risks associated with vaccination. The paper considers planning under ambiguity using the minimax and minimax-regret criteria, as well as planning using a subjective probability distribution on unknown quantities. It develops algorithms that may be applied flexibly to determine policy choices with specified degrees and types of uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83190448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 9

To What Extent Does In-Person Schooling Contribute to the Spread of COVID-19? Evidence from Michigan and Washington 面对面教育在多大程度上助长了COVID-19的传播?来自密歇根和华盛顿的证据

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28455

Dan Goldhaber, Scott A. Imberman, Katharine O. Strunk, B. Hopkins, Nate Brown, Erica Harbatkin, Tara Kilbride

{"title":"To What Extent Does In-Person Schooling Contribute to the Spread of COVID-19? Evidence from Michigan and Washington","authors":"Dan Goldhaber, Scott A. Imberman, Katharine O. Strunk, B. Hopkins, Nate Brown, Erica Harbatkin, Tara Kilbride","doi":"10.3386/W28455","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28455","url":null,"abstract":"The decision about how and when to open schools to in-person instruction has been a key question for policymakers throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The instructional modality of schools has implications not only for the health and safety of students and staff, but also student learning and the degree to which parents can engage in job activities. We consider the role of instructional modality (in-person, hybrid, or remote instruction) in disease spread among the wider community. Using a variety of regression modeling strategies , we find that simple correlations show in-person modalities are correlated with increased COVID cases, but accounting for both pre-existing cases and a richer set of covariates brings estimates close to zero on average. In Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) specifications, in-person modality options are not associated with increased spread of COVID at low levels of pre-existing COVID cases but cases do increase at moderate to high pre-existing COVID rates. A bounding exercise suggests that the OLS findings for in-person modality are likely to represent an upper bound on the true relationship. These findings are robust to the inclusion of county and district fixed effects in terms of the insignificance of the findings, but the models with fixed effects are also somewhat imprecisely estimated.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86859348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 54

Political Violence, Risk Aversion, and Non-Localized Disease Spread: Evidence from the U.S. Capitol Riot 政治暴力、风险规避和非局部疾病传播:来自美国国会大厦骚乱的证据

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28410

Dhaval M. Dave, Drew McNichols, Joseph J. Sabia

{"title":"Political Violence, Risk Aversion, and Non-Localized Disease Spread: Evidence from the U.S. Capitol Riot","authors":"Dhaval M. Dave, Drew McNichols, Joseph J. Sabia","doi":"10.3386/W28410","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28410","url":null,"abstract":"On January 6, 2021, the U.S. Capitol was sieged by rioters protesting certification of Joseph R. Biden’s election as the 46th president of the United States. The Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) quickly predicted that the Riot would be a COVID-19 “surge event.” This study is the first to estimate the impact of the Capitol Riot on risk-averting behavior and community-level spread of the novel coronavirus. First, using anonymized smartphone data from SafeGraph, Inc. and an event-study approach, we document that on January 6th there was a substantial increase in non-resident smartphone pings in the census block groups including the Ellipse, the National Mall, and the U.S. Capitol Building, consistent with a large protest that day. Next, using data from the same source and a synthetic control approach, we find that the Capitol Riot increased stay-at-home behavior among District of Columbia residents, indicative of risk averting behaviors in response to violence and health risks. Finally, turning to COVID-19 case data, we find no evidence that the Capitol Riot substantially increased community spread of COVID-19 in the District of Columbia in the month-long period following the event. This may be due to increases in social distancing and a “virtual lockdown” of the Capitol prior to the inauguration of the new president. However, exploiting variation in non-resident smartphone inflows into the January 6 Capitol protest, we find that counties with the highest protester inflows experienced a significant increase in the rate of daily cumulative COVID-19 case growth in the month following the protest. We conclude that the Capitol Riot may have contributed to non-localized COVID-19 spread.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"114 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88144700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 13

A Parsimonious Behavioral SEIR Model of the 2020 COVID Epidemic in the United States and the United Kingdom 2020年美国和英国新冠肺炎疫情的简约行为SEIR模型

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28434

A. Atkeson

引用次数: 24

Aggregate Employment Effects of Unemployment Benefits During Deep Downturns: Evidence from the Expiration of the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation 深度衰退期间失业救济金的总体就业效应:来自联邦大流行失业补偿到期的证据

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28470

Arindrajit Dubé

引用次数: 20