National Bureau of Economic Research最新文献_第2页

Vaccination Planning under Uncertainty, with Application to Covid-19 不确定性下的疫苗接种规划，应用于Covid-19

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28446

C. Manski

{"title":"Vaccination Planning under Uncertainty, with Application to Covid-19","authors":"C. Manski","doi":"10.3386/W28446","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28446","url":null,"abstract":"Vaccination against infectious disease may be beneficial to reduce illness in vaccinated persons and disease transmission across the population. The welfare-economic practice of specifying a social welfare function and considering a planner who seeks to optimize welfare provides a constructive framework to evaluate vaccination policy. This paper characterizes choice of vaccination policy as a planning problem that aims to minimize the social cost of illness and vaccination. Manski (2010, 2017) studied vaccination as a problem of planning under uncertainty, assuming that a planner can choose any vaccination rate or that the planner has only two options: mandate or decentralize vaccination. The analysis focused on uncertainty regarding the effect of vaccination on disease transmission. Here I weaken the assumptions to recognize multiple uncertainties relevant to evaluation of policy for vaccination against COVID-19. These include uncertainty not only about the effect of vaccination on disease transmission, but also about the fraction of susceptible persons in the population, the effectiveness of vaccination in reducing illness and infectiousness, and the health risks associated with vaccination. The paper considers planning under ambiguity using the minimax and minimax-regret criteria, as well as planning using a subjective probability distribution on unknown quantities. It develops algorithms that may be applied flexibly to determine policy choices with specified degrees and types of uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83190448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 9

To What Extent Does In-Person Schooling Contribute to the Spread of COVID-19? Evidence from Michigan and Washington 面对面教育在多大程度上助长了COVID-19的传播?来自密歇根和华盛顿的证据

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28455

Dan Goldhaber, Scott A. Imberman, Katharine O. Strunk, B. Hopkins, Nate Brown, Erica Harbatkin, Tara Kilbride

{"title":"To What Extent Does In-Person Schooling Contribute to the Spread of COVID-19? Evidence from Michigan and Washington","authors":"Dan Goldhaber, Scott A. Imberman, Katharine O. Strunk, B. Hopkins, Nate Brown, Erica Harbatkin, Tara Kilbride","doi":"10.3386/W28455","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28455","url":null,"abstract":"The decision about how and when to open schools to in-person instruction has been a key question for policymakers throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The instructional modality of schools has implications not only for the health and safety of students and staff, but also student learning and the degree to which parents can engage in job activities. We consider the role of instructional modality (in-person, hybrid, or remote instruction) in disease spread among the wider community. Using a variety of regression modeling strategies , we find that simple correlations show in-person modalities are correlated with increased COVID cases, but accounting for both pre-existing cases and a richer set of covariates brings estimates close to zero on average. In Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) specifications, in-person modality options are not associated with increased spread of COVID at low levels of pre-existing COVID cases but cases do increase at moderate to high pre-existing COVID rates. A bounding exercise suggests that the OLS findings for in-person modality are likely to represent an upper bound on the true relationship. These findings are robust to the inclusion of county and district fixed effects in terms of the insignificance of the findings, but the models with fixed effects are also somewhat imprecisely estimated.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86859348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 54

A Parsimonious Behavioral SEIR Model of the 2020 COVID Epidemic in the United States and the United Kingdom 2020年美国和英国新冠肺炎疫情的简约行为SEIR模型

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28434

A. Atkeson

引用次数: 24

Political Violence, Risk Aversion, and Non-Localized Disease Spread: Evidence from the U.S. Capitol Riot 政治暴力、风险规避和非局部疾病传播:来自美国国会大厦骚乱的证据

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28410

Dhaval M. Dave, Drew McNichols, Joseph J. Sabia

{"title":"Political Violence, Risk Aversion, and Non-Localized Disease Spread: Evidence from the U.S. Capitol Riot","authors":"Dhaval M. Dave, Drew McNichols, Joseph J. Sabia","doi":"10.3386/W28410","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28410","url":null,"abstract":"On January 6, 2021, the U.S. Capitol was sieged by rioters protesting certification of Joseph R. Biden’s election as the 46th president of the United States. The Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) quickly predicted that the Riot would be a COVID-19 “surge event.” This study is the first to estimate the impact of the Capitol Riot on risk-averting behavior and community-level spread of the novel coronavirus. First, using anonymized smartphone data from SafeGraph, Inc. and an event-study approach, we document that on January 6th there was a substantial increase in non-resident smartphone pings in the census block groups including the Ellipse, the National Mall, and the U.S. Capitol Building, consistent with a large protest that day. Next, using data from the same source and a synthetic control approach, we find that the Capitol Riot increased stay-at-home behavior among District of Columbia residents, indicative of risk averting behaviors in response to violence and health risks. Finally, turning to COVID-19 case data, we find no evidence that the Capitol Riot substantially increased community spread of COVID-19 in the District of Columbia in the month-long period following the event. This may be due to increases in social distancing and a “virtual lockdown” of the Capitol prior to the inauguration of the new president. However, exploiting variation in non-resident smartphone inflows into the January 6 Capitol protest, we find that counties with the highest protester inflows experienced a significant increase in the rate of daily cumulative COVID-19 case growth in the month following the protest. We conclude that the Capitol Riot may have contributed to non-localized COVID-19 spread.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"114 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88144700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 13

Aggregate Employment Effects of Unemployment Benefits During Deep Downturns: Evidence from the Expiration of the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation 深度衰退期间失业救济金的总体就业效应:来自联邦大流行失业补偿到期的证据

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28470

Arindrajit Dubé

引用次数: 20

Housing Consumption and the Cost of Remote Work 住房消耗和远程工作成本

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28483

Christopher Stanton, P. Tiwari

引用次数: 27

What Kinds of Distributed Generation Technologies Defer Network Expansions? Evidence from France 何种分布式发电技术延缓了网络扩展?来自法国的证据

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-01-03 DOI: 10.3386/W28822

N. Astier, R. Rajagopal, F. Wolak

引用次数: 0

Sales Losses in the First Quarter of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from California Administrative Data 2019冠状病毒病大流行第一季度的销售损失:来自加州行政数据的证据

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28414

R. Fairlie, Frank M. Fossen

{"title":"Sales Losses in the First Quarter of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from California Administrative Data","authors":"R. Fairlie, Frank M. Fossen","doi":"10.3386/W28414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28414","url":null,"abstract":"COVID-19 led to a massive shutdown of businesses in the second quarter of 2020. Estimates from the CPS, for example, indicate that the number of active business owners dropped by 22 percent from February to April 2020. In this descriptive research note, we provide the first analysis of losses in sales and revenues among the universe of businesses in California using administrative data from the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration. The losses in sales average 17 percent in the second quarter of 2020 relative to the second quarter of 2019 even though year-over-year sales typically grow by 3-4 percent. We find that sales losses were largest in businesses affected by mandatory lockdowns such as Accommodations, which lost 91 percent, whereas online sales grew by 180 percent. Losses also differed substantially across counties with large losses in San Francisco (50 percent) and Los Angeles (24 percent) whereas some counties experienced small gains in sales. Placing business types into different categories based on whether they were essential or non-essential (and thus subject to early lockdowns) and whether they have a moderate or high level of person-to-person contact, we find interesting correlations between sales losses and COVID-19 cases per capita across counties in California. The results suggest that local implementation and enforcement of lockdown restrictions and voluntary behavioral responses as reactions to the perceived local COVID-19 spread both played a role, but enforcement of mandatory restrictions may have had a larger impact on sales losses.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76910625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

Migration, Specialization, and Trade: Evidence from Brazil's March to the West 移民、专业化与贸易:来自巴西向西方进军的证据

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28421

Heitor S. Pellegrina, Sebastian Sotelo

引用次数: 4

COVID-19 and SMEs: A 2021 "Time Bomb"? 2019冠状病毒病与中小企业:2021年的“定时炸弹”?

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28418

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Veronika Penciakova, N. Sander

引用次数: 19