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Housing Consumption and the Cost of Remote Work 住房消耗和远程工作成本
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28483
Christopher Stanton, P. Tiwari
{"title":"Housing Consumption and the Cost of Remote Work","authors":"Christopher Stanton, P. Tiwari","doi":"10.3386/W28483","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28483","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates housing choice differences between households with and without remote workers. Prior to the pandemic, the expenditure share on housing was more than seven percent higher for remote households compared to similar non-remote households in the same commuting zone. Remote households’ higher housing expenditures arise from larger dwellings (more rooms) and a higher price per room. Pre-COVID, households with remote workers were actually located in areas with above-average housing costs, and sorting within-commuting zone to suburban or rural areas was not economically meaningful. Using the pre-COVID distribution of locations, we estimate how much additional pre-tax income would be necessary to compensate non-remote households for extra housing expenses arising from remote work in the absence of geographic mobility, and we compare this compensation to commercial office rents in major metro areas.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"68 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84159778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 27
What Kinds of Distributed Generation Technologies Defer Network Expansions? Evidence from France 何种分布式发电技术延缓了网络扩展?来自法国的证据
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-01-03 DOI: 10.3386/W28822
N. Astier, R. Rajagopal, F. Wolak
{"title":"What Kinds of Distributed Generation Technologies Defer Network Expansions? Evidence from France","authors":"N. Astier, R. Rajagopal, F. Wolak","doi":"10.3386/W28822","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28822","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates the relationship between investments in five distributed generation technologies and hourly net injections to the distribution grid for over 2,000 substations in France between 2005 and 2018. We find that investments in distributed wind and solar capacity have little or no impact on the annual peak of hourly net injections to the distribution grid, while investments in hydroelectric and thermal distributed generation significantly reduce it. An optimistic analysis of battery storage suggests that high levels of investments are required for distributed wind and solar investments to deliver similar reductions in the annual peak of hourly net injections.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77568079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sales Losses in the First Quarter of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from California Administrative Data 2019冠状病毒病大流行第一季度的销售损失:来自加州行政数据的证据
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28414
R. Fairlie, Frank M. Fossen
{"title":"Sales Losses in the First Quarter of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from California Administrative Data","authors":"R. Fairlie, Frank M. Fossen","doi":"10.3386/W28414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28414","url":null,"abstract":"COVID-19 led to a massive shutdown of businesses in the second quarter of 2020. Estimates from the CPS, for example, indicate that the number of active business owners dropped by 22 percent from February to April 2020. In this descriptive research note, we provide the first analysis of losses in sales and revenues among the universe of businesses in California using administrative data from the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration. The losses in sales average 17 percent in the second quarter of 2020 relative to the second quarter of 2019 even though year-over-year sales typically grow by 3-4 percent. We find that sales losses were largest in businesses affected by mandatory lockdowns such as Accommodations, which lost 91 percent, whereas online sales grew by 180 percent. Losses also differed substantially across counties with large losses in San Francisco (50 percent) and Los Angeles (24 percent) whereas some counties experienced small gains in sales. Placing business types into different categories based on whether they were essential or non-essential (and thus subject to early lockdowns) and whether they have a moderate or high level of person-to-person contact, we find interesting correlations between sales losses and COVID-19 cases per capita across counties in California. The results suggest that local implementation and enforcement of lockdown restrictions and voluntary behavioral responses as reactions to the perceived local COVID-19 spread both played a role, but enforcement of mandatory restrictions may have had a larger impact on sales losses.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76910625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Migration, Specialization, and Trade: Evidence from Brazil's March to the West 移民、专业化与贸易:来自巴西向西方进军的证据
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28421
Heitor S. Pellegrina, Sebastian Sotelo
{"title":"Migration, Specialization, and Trade: Evidence from Brazil's March to the West","authors":"Heitor S. Pellegrina, Sebastian Sotelo","doi":"10.3386/W28421","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28421","url":null,"abstract":"Exploiting a large migration of farmers to the West of Brazil between 1950 and 2010, we study how migration shapes aggregate and regional comparative advantage. We document that farmers emigrating from regions with high employment in an activity are more likely to work in that activity and have higher income than other migrants doing so. We incorporate this heterogeneity into a quantitative model and find that, by reshaping comparative advantage, declines in migration costs contributed substantially to Brazil's rise as a leading commodity exporter. Opportunities to migrate, moreover, account for a substantial share of the gains from trade.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85219287","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
COVID-19 and SMEs: A 2021 "Time Bomb"? 2019冠状病毒病与中小企业:2021年的“定时炸弹”?
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28418
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Veronika Penciakova, N. Sander
{"title":"COVID-19 and SMEs: A 2021 \"Time Bomb\"?","authors":"Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Veronika Penciakova, N. Sander","doi":"10.3386/W28418","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28418","url":null,"abstract":"This paper assesses the prospects of a 2021 time bomb in SME failures triggered by the generous support policies enacted during the 2020 COVID-19 crisis. Policies implemented in 2020, on their own, do not create a 2021 “time-bomb” for SMEs. Rather, business failures and policy costs remain modest. By contrast, credit contraction poses a significant risk. Such a contraction would disproportionately impact firms that could survive COVID-19 in 2020 without any fiscal support. Even in that scenario, most business failures would not arise from excessively generous 2020 policies, but rather from the contraction of credit to the corporate sector.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82657842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 19
How Well Insured are Job Losers? Efficacy of the Public Safety Net. 失业人员的保险有多好?公共安全网的功效。
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/w28218
Chloe N. East, David Simon
{"title":"How Well Insured are Job Losers? Efficacy of the Public Safety Net.","authors":"Chloe N. East, David Simon","doi":"10.3386/w28218","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28218","url":null,"abstract":"An extensive literature in economics documents large and persistent declines in earnings following involuntary job loss. We study whether the public safety net mitigates this loss in resources using the Survey of Income and Program Participation in 1996-2013. With an individual fixed effects model, we document which public safety net programs provide the most insurance, and how this varies by pre-job-loss characteristics. We find that Unemployment Insurance provides the largest buffer against lost income, but that due to the structure of the program, the neediest are less-well insured (in terms of dollars transferred and percentage of lost earnings replaced), compared to middle and higher income job losers. This has important implications for the progressivity of the safety net, and how best to support displaced workers, which is crucial to understand for job losers at any time, and especially now, in light of the historic number of job losses during the COVID-19 pandemic.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87962803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Aggregate and Distributional Impacts of LTV Policy: Evidence from China's Micro Data LTV政策的总体和分布影响:来自中国微观数据的证据
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-11-16 DOI: 10.3386/w28092
Kaiji Chen, Qing Wang, Tong Xu, T. Zha
{"title":"Aggregate and Distributional Impacts of LTV Policy: Evidence from China's Micro Data","authors":"Kaiji Chen, Qing Wang, Tong Xu, T. Zha","doi":"10.3386/w28092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28092","url":null,"abstract":"Using three unique micro datasets, we find that an unexpected and unprecedented loosening of China's LTV policy for non-primary houses fueled the entire mortgage boom during 2014Q4-2016Q3. The mortgage expansion disproportionately increased the share of mortgages to middle-aged homeowners with high education, while their consumption growth declined persistently. To interpret these empirical findings, we develop a quantitative model and identify that homeowners' trade-up of their primary homes as speculative housing investment is a key channel for a change in LTV policy to exert aggregate and distributional impacts on mortgage markets. Our cross-city evidence provides empirical support for this channel.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86542503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Advice-Driven Demand and Systematic Price Fluctuations 建议驱动的需求和系统性的价格波动
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-11-16 DOI: 10.3386/W28103
Itzhak Ben-David, Jiacui Li, Andrea Rossi, Yang Song
{"title":"Advice-Driven Demand and Systematic Price Fluctuations","authors":"Itzhak Ben-David, Jiacui Li, Andrea Rossi, Yang Song","doi":"10.3386/W28103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28103","url":null,"abstract":"We show that advice in the form of mutual fund ratings generates correlated demand that creates systematic price fluctuations. Mutual fund investors chase fund performance via Morningstar ratings. Until June 2002, funds pursuing the same investment style had highly correlated ratings. Therefore, rating-chasing investors directed capital into winning styles, generating style-level price pressures that reverted over time. In June 2002, Morningstar reformed its methodology to equalize ratings across styles. Style-level correlated demand via mutual funds immediately became muted, significantly altering the time-series and cross-sectional variation of style returns. Advice-driven demand also explains substantial variation in the size and value factors.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"3069 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86551899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Opening the Door: Immigrant Legalization and Family Reunification in the United States 打开大门:美国的移民合法化和家庭团聚
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27874
Elizabeth U. Cascio, Ethan G. Lewis
{"title":"Opening the Door: Immigrant Legalization and Family Reunification in the United States","authors":"Elizabeth U. Cascio, Ethan G. Lewis","doi":"10.3386/w27874","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27874","url":null,"abstract":"We examine how the large, one-time legalization authorized by the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) has affected the scale and character of immigration to the U.S. since the late 1980s. Exploiting cross-country variation in the magnitude of the legalization shock, we find that each IRCA admit accounts for the subsequent admission of 1 to 2 family members, mostly immediate family. There is little evidence that the legalization increased subsequent unauthorized migration; in fact, fewer temporary visa overstays have somewhat offset the additional family admissions. The marginal family-sponsored admit has not been negatively selected and has not increased fiscal burdens.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74658423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Retail Raw: Wisdom of the Robinhood Crowd and the COVID Crisis 零售原材料:罗宾汉人群的智慧和COVID危机
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-09-24 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3696066
I. Welch
{"title":"Retail Raw: Wisdom of the Robinhood Crowd and the COVID Crisis","authors":"I. Welch","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3696066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3696066","url":null,"abstract":"Small retail investors at the Robinhood (RH) retail brokerage firm from 2018 to 2020 shared with Finnish and larger US investors from the 1990s a preference for extreme recent winners and losers. Interestingly, this preference held even for the overall stock market during the March-2020 Covid crisis, indicating an absence of panic and margin calls. Thus, RH investors acted as a (small) market-stabilizing force. They were also unusually interested in some “experience” stocks (e.g., Cannabis stocks). Nevertheless, the narrative of pure irrational exuberance is misleading. Collectively, RH investors bought and held stocks with large past share-volume and dollar-volume, making them invest overwhelmingly in large rather than in obscure stocks. A portfolio constructed on the basis of just these two variables can make it possible to mimick the investments of RH traders, plausibly even beyond the sample. The collective RH crowd portfolio also did not underperform with respect to standard academic benchmark models.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"67 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72602333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 73
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