National Bureau of Economic Research最新文献_第4页

The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S. 大封锁和大刺激:追踪美国大流行的可能性边界

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27794

Greg Kaplan, Benjamin Moll, G. Violante

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引用次数: 97

Forced) Feminist Firms 强迫)女权主义公司

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-08-29 DOI: 10.3386/w27788

Benjamin Bennett, Isil Erel, L. Stern, Zexi Wang

引用次数: 3

Optimal Management of a Pandemic in the Short Run and the Long Run 短期和长期大流行的最佳管理

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-08-27 DOI: 10.3386/w27742

Andrew B. Abel, Stavros Panageas

引用次数: 13

The Aggregate Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from the COVID-19 Unemployment Supplement 财政刺激的总体效应:来自COVID-19失业补助的证据

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27576

Miguel Garza Casado, Britta Glennon, J. Lane, David McQuown, Daniel P. Rich, Bruce A. Weinberg

{"title":"The Aggregate Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from the COVID-19 Unemployment Supplement","authors":"Miguel Garza Casado, Britta Glennon, J. Lane, David McQuown, Daniel P. Rich, Bruce A. Weinberg","doi":"10.3386/w27576","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27576","url":null,"abstract":"Policymakers, faced with different options for replacing lost earnings, have had limited evidence to inform their decisions. The current economic crisis has highlighted the need for data that are local and timely so that different fiscal policy options on local economies can be more immediately evaluated. This paper provides a framework for evaluating real-time effects of fiscal policy on local economic activity using two new sources of near real-time data. The first data source is administrative records that provide universal, weekly, information on unemployment claimants. The second data source is transaction level data on economic activity that are available on a daily basis. We use shift-share approaches, combined with these two data sources and the novel cross-county variation in the incidence of the COVID-19 supplement to Unemployment Insurance to estimate the local impact of unemployment, earnings replacement, and their interaction on economic activity. We find that higher replacement rates lead to significantly more consumer spending – even with increases in the unemployment rate – consistent with the goal of the fiscal stimulus. Our estimates suggest that, based on the latest data, eliminating the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) supplement would lead to a 44% decline in local spending. If the FPUC supplement is reduced to $200, resulting in a reduction of the replacement rate by 44%, spending would fall by 28%. Even if the FPUC supplement is reduced to $400, the replacement rate would fall by 29% and spending would fall by 12%. Because these data are available in every state, the approach can be used to inform decision making not just in this current crisis, but also in future recessions.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85325612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 18

Financing Municipal Water and Sanitation Services in Nairobi’s Informal Settlements 资助内罗毕非正式住区的市政供水和卫生服务

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27569

Aidan Coville, S. Galiani, P. Gertler, Susumu Yoshida

{"title":"Financing Municipal Water and Sanitation Services in Nairobi’s Informal Settlements","authors":"Aidan Coville, S. Galiani, P. Gertler, Susumu Yoshida","doi":"10.3386/w27569","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27569","url":null,"abstract":"Most of the recent focus in the delivery of public utility services has been on last mile connections to water, sewerage and electricity grids. However, the high frequency of nonpayment for services associated with this expansion has created a fiscal crisis for public utilities and has forced utilities to ration services. Public utilities afraid that service disconnections will have political consequences are reluctant to enforce payment with service cutoff. We test this hypothesis using a field experiment in the slums of Nairobi with two interventions intended to improve repayment for water and sewage services: a soft encouragement that informs tenants about landlord’s payment delinquency and, second, a hard threat of disconnection for nonpayment with enforcement if landlords do not pay. While we find no effect of the soft encouragement intervention, we find very large effects of the disconnection intervention on repayment. Moreover, there seems to be no effect on landlord and tenant perceptions of utility fairness or quality of service delivery, on community activism, on the relationships of tenants with their landlords, or on child health. To counterbalance the effective increase in utility fees paid, landlords increase their rental income by both renting out additional space in their compounds and by marginally increasing tenant rents. These results suggest that strict enforcement through disconnections increases payment and the financial position of the utility without incurring political costs.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72706331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, & Public Policy Implications 评估COVID-19感染致死率的年龄特异性:系统评价、荟萃分析和公共政策影响

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27597

Andrew T. Levin, W. Hanage, Nana Owusu-Boaitey, Kensington B. Cochran, Seamus P. Walsh, G. Meyerowitz-katz

{"title":"Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, & Public Policy Implications","authors":"Andrew T. Levin, W. Hanage, Nana Owusu-Boaitey, Kensington B. Cochran, Seamus P. Walsh, G. Meyerowitz-katz","doi":"10.3386/w27597","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27597","url":null,"abstract":"This paper assesses the age specificity of the infection fatality rate (IFR) for COVID-19. Our benchmark meta-regression synthesizes the age-specific IFRs from six recent large-scale seroprevalence studies conducted in Belgium, Geneva, Indiana, New York, Spain, and Sweden. The estimated IFR is close to zero for children and younger adults but rises exponentially with age, reaching about 0.3 percent for ages 50-59, 1.3 percent for ages 60-69, 4.6 percent for ages 70-79, and 25 percent for ages 80 and above. We compare those predictions to the age-specific IFRs implied by recent seroprevalence estimates for nine other U.S. locations, three smale-scale studies, and three countries (Iceland, New Zealand, and Republic of Korea) that have engaged in comprehensive tracking and tracing of COVID-19 infections. We also review seroprevalence studies of 32 other locations whose design was not well-suited for estimating age-specific IFRs. Our findings indicate that COVID-19 is not just dangerous for the elderly and infirm but also for healthy middle-aged adults, for whom the fatality rate is more than 50 times greater than the risk of dying in an automobile accident. Consequently, the overall IFR for a given location is intrinsically linked to the age-specific pattern of infections. In a scenario where the U.S. infection rate reaches 20 percent, our analysis indicates that protecting vulnerable age groups could prevent more than 200,000 deaths.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75186334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 13

Experimental Evidence on Alternative Policies to Increase Learning at Scale 增加大规模学习的替代政策的实验证据

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27298

Annie Duflo, Jessica Kiessel, Adrienne M. Lucas

引用次数: 21

Measuring the Environmental Benefits of Electric Vehicles (Relative to the Car that Wasn’t Bought) 衡量电动汽车的环境效益(相对于未购买的汽车)

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-05-21 DOI: 10.3386/w27197

E. Muehlegger, D. Rapson

引用次数: 2

A No-Arbitrage Perspective on Global Arbitrage Opportunities 全球套利机会的无套利视角

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-05-21 DOI: 10.3386/w27231

Patrick Augustin, Mikhail Chernov, L. Schmid, Dongho Song

引用次数: 9

The Contribution of Chinese Diaspora Researchers to Global Science and China's Catching Up in Scientific Research 海外华人学者对全球科学的贡献与中国科学研究的赶超

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27169

Qingnan Xie, Richard B. Freeman

引用次数: 2