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The Boll Weevil’s Impact on Racial Income Gaps in the Early Twentieth Century 20世纪初棉铃象鼻虫对种族收入差距的影响
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.3386/w27101
K. Clay, Ethan Schmick, Werner Troesken
{"title":"The Boll Weevil’s Impact on Racial Income Gaps in the Early Twentieth Century","authors":"K. Clay, Ethan Schmick, Werner Troesken","doi":"10.3386/w27101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27101","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the effect of a large negative agricultural shock, the boll weevil, on black-white inequality in the first half of the twentieth century. To do this we use complete count census data to generate a linked sample of fathers and their sons. We find that the boll weevil induced enormous labor market and social disruption as more than half of black and white fathers moved to other counties following the arrival of the weevil. The shock impacted black and white sons differently. We compare sons whose fathers initially resided in the same county and find that white sons born after the boll weevil had similar wages and schooling outcomes to white sons born prior to its arrival. In contrast, black sons born after the boll weevil had significantly higher wages and years of schooling, narrowing the black-white wage and schooling gaps. This decrease appears to have been driven by relative improvements in early life conditions and access to schooling both for sons of black fathers that migrated out of the South and sons of black fathers that stayed in the South.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84746280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Asset Prices and Aggregate Demand in a "Covid-19" Shock: A Model of Endogenous Risk Intolerance and LSAPs “Covid-19”冲击中的资产价格和总需求:一个内生风险不耐受和LSAPs模型
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-04-23 DOI: 10.3386/W27044
Ricardo J. Caballero, Alp Simsek
{"title":"Asset Prices and Aggregate Demand in a \"Covid-19\" Shock: A Model of Endogenous Risk Intolerance and LSAPs","authors":"Ricardo J. Caballero, Alp Simsek","doi":"10.3386/W27044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W27044","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we: (i) provide a model of the endogenous risk intolerance and severe aggregate demand contractions following a large real (non-financial) shock; and (ii) demonstrate the effectiveness of Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAPs) in addressing these contractions. The key mechanism stems from heterogeneous risk tolerance: as a recessionary shock hits the economy and brings down asset prices, risk-tolerant agents' wealth share declines and their leverage rises endogenously. This reduces the market's risk tolerance and generates downward pressure on asset prices and aggregate demand. When monetary policy is unconstrained, it can offset the decline in risk tolerance with an interest rate cut that boosts the market's Sharpe ratio. However, if the interest rate policy is constrained, new contractionary feedbacks arise: recessionary shocks lead to further asset price and output drops, which feed the risk-off episode and trigger a downward loop. In this context, LSAPs improve asset prices and aggregate demand by transferring risk to the government's balance sheet, which reduces the market's required Sharpe ratio. Optimal LSAPs are larger when the (consolidated) government has greater future fiscal capacity and the downward spiral is more severe. In an extension, we show how corporate debt overhang problems strengthen our mechanisms. The Covid-19 shock and the large response by all the major central banks provide a vivid illustration of the environment we seek to capture.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81864554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 16
Measuring Welfare and Inequality with Incomplete Price Information 用不完全价格信息衡量福利与不平等
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.3386/w26890
D. Atkin, Benjamin Faber, Thibault Fally, Marco Gonzalez-Navarro
{"title":"Measuring Welfare and Inequality with Incomplete Price Information","authors":"D. Atkin, Benjamin Faber, Thibault Fally, Marco Gonzalez-Navarro","doi":"10.3386/w26890","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w26890","url":null,"abstract":"Measuring changes in welfare, and particularly the price index, is challenging in the absence of well-measured prices covering the entire consumption basket. We propose and implement a new approach to estimate changes in income-group specific price indices and welfare using rich, but widely available, expenditure survey microdata. We build on existing work that uses Engel curves and expenditures on income-elastic goods to infer real incomes. While based on non-homothetic preferences, the price indices this approach recovers are homothetic and hence are neither theory consistent nor suitable for distributional analysis. We show that we can recover income-specific price index and welfare changes from horizontal shifts in Engel curves if preferences are quasi-separable and we focus on \"relative\" Engel curves. Our approach is flexible enough to allow for the non-linear Engel curves we document in the data, and for non-parametric estimation at each point of the income distribution. We implement this approach to estimate inflation and welfare in rural India between 1987/1988 and 1999/2000, and to revisit the impacts of India's trade reforms. Our estimates reveal that lower inflation rates for the rich erased the real income convergence documented by the existing literature that calculates inflation using only well-measured prices.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"104 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80934390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Language Training and Refugees' Integration 语言培训与难民融入
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.3386/w26834
J. Arendt, Iben Bolvig, M. Foged, Linea Hasager, G. Peri
{"title":"Language Training and Refugees' Integration","authors":"J. Arendt, Iben Bolvig, M. Foged, Linea Hasager, G. Peri","doi":"10.3386/w26834","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w26834","url":null,"abstract":"Social and economic integration of refugees are key to their personal fulfillment and to producing positive effects in the host country. We evaluate the impact of a reform that expanded and improved early language classes to refugees in Denmark while also temporarily lowering welfare benefits for a subgroup of them. The policy change applied to those who obtained refugee status in Denmark on or after January 1, 1999. Using a regression discontinuity design around the cutoff date we find that employment and earnings gradually diverged for the treated group after completion of the language program. The effect was significant and resulted in four percentage points permanently higher employment and almost USD 2,510 in extra yearly earnings over eighteen years. We do not find temporary or permanent labor market effects of cutting welfare benefits, but we find evidence of temporarily higher property crime when refugees received lower benefits. We also find that children of refugees who received enhanced language classes were more likely to complete lower secondary school and less likely to commit crime.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74635770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 25
Global Effects of the Brexit Referendum: Evidence from US Corporations 英国脱欧公投的全球影响:来自美国企业的证据
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-01-30 DOI: 10.3386/w26714
Murillo Campello, Gustavo S. Cortés, Fabrício d'Almeida, Gaurav Kankanhalli
{"title":"Global Effects of the Brexit Referendum: Evidence from US Corporations","authors":"Murillo Campello, Gustavo S. Cortés, Fabrício d'Almeida, Gaurav Kankanhalli","doi":"10.3386/w26714","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w26714","url":null,"abstract":"We show that the 2016 Brexit Referendum led American corporations to cut jobs and investment within US borders. Using establishment-level data, we document that these effects were modulated by the degree of reversibility of capital and labor. American job losses were particularly pronounced in industries with less skilled and more unionized workers. UK-exposed firms with less redeployable capital and high input-offshoring dependence cut investment the most. Data on the near-universe of US establishments also point to measurable, negative effects on establishment turnover (openings and closings). Our results demonstrate how foreign-born political uncertainty is transmitted across international borders, shaping domestic capital formation and labor allocation.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78654194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 25
A Skeptic’s Guide to Modern Monetary Theory 怀疑论者的现代货币理论指南
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-01-10 DOI: 10.1257/PANDP.20201102
N. Mankiw
{"title":"A Skeptic’s Guide to Modern Monetary Theory","authors":"N. Mankiw","doi":"10.1257/PANDP.20201102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/PANDP.20201102","url":null,"abstract":"This essay discusses a new approach to macroeconomics called modern monetary theory (MMT). It identifies the key differences between MMT and the approach found in mainstream textbooks. It concludes that while MMT contains some kernels of truth, its most novel policy prescriptions do not follow cogently from its premises.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"32 1","pages":"141-144"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80242981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 38
Who’s Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective 谁在为美国的关税买单?长远的眼光
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-01-03 DOI: 10.1257/PANDP.20201018
M. Amiti, S. Redding, David E. Weinstein
{"title":"Who’s Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective","authors":"M. Amiti, S. Redding, David E. Weinstein","doi":"10.1257/PANDP.20201018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/PANDP.20201018","url":null,"abstract":"Using data from 2018, a number of studies have found that recent U.S tariffs have been passed on entirely to U.S. importers and consumers. These results are surprising given that trade theory has long stressed that tariffs applied by a large country should drive down foreign prices. Using another year of data including significant escalations in the trade war, we find that U.S. tariffs continue to be almost entirely borne by U.S. firms and consumers. We show that the response of import values to the tariffs increases in absolute magnitude over time, consistent with the idea that it takes time for firms to reorganize supply chains. We find heterogeneity in the responses of some sectors, such as steel, where tariffs have caused foreign exporters to drop their prices substantially, enabling them to export relatively more than in sectors where tariff passthrough was complete.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"41 1","pages":"541-546"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88522664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 64
Do Property Rights Alleviate the Problem of the Commons? Evidence from California Groundwater Rights 产权能缓解公地问题吗?来自加州地下水权利的证据
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2019-09-12 DOI: 10.3386/w26268
A. Ayres, Kyle C. Meng, A. Plantinga
{"title":"Do Property Rights Alleviate the Problem of the Commons? Evidence from California Groundwater Rights","authors":"A. Ayres, Kyle C. Meng, A. Plantinga","doi":"10.3386/w26268","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w26268","url":null,"abstract":"Property rights are widely prescribed for addressing overextraction of common pool resources, yet causal evidence of their effectiveness remains elusive. We develop a model of dynamic groundwater extraction to demonstrate how a spatial regression discontinuity design exploiting a spatially-incomplete property rights regime recovers a lower bound on the value of property rights. We apply this estimator to a major aquifer in water-scarce southern California and find that the introduction of ground- water property rights generated substantial net benefits, as capitalized in land values. Heterogeneity analyses suggest gains arise in part from tradeability of these rights, which enables more efficient water use.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90808934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Who Chooses Commitment? Evidence and Welfare Implications 谁选择承诺?证据及福利影响
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.3386/W26161
M. Carrera, Heather Royer, Mark Stehr, Justin R. Sydnor, Dmitry Taubinsky
{"title":"Who Chooses Commitment? Evidence and Welfare Implications","authors":"M. Carrera, Heather Royer, Mark Stehr, Justin R. Sydnor, Dmitry Taubinsky","doi":"10.3386/W26161","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W26161","url":null,"abstract":"A large literature treats take-up of commitment contracts, in the form of choice-set restrictions or penalties, as a smoking gun for time-inconsistency or self-control problems (for short, “present focus”). This paper develops techniques for inspecting this assumption, presents new field-experimental results that challenge it, and provides an alternative approach to measuring present focus. Theoretically, we show that in a standard model of quasi-hyperbolic discounting, demand for commitment is unlikely when there is some uncertainty about the future. In a field experiment with 1292 members of a fitness facility, we test for the presence of imperfect perception of contract value and experimenter demand effects in commitment contract take-up by offering contracts both for going to the gym more and for going to the gym less. We find that there is significant take-up of both types of contracts, and that individuals who take up contracts to go to the gym more are the most likely to take up contracts to go the gym less. These starkly conflicting choices are inconsistent with all standard models of present focus, and suggest that offers of commitment contracts may not be well-targeted policy tools. However, we show that a combination of belief forecasts and elicitations of willingness-to-pay for piece-rate incentives provides more robust identification of present focus and people’s awareness of it. We apply the methodology to our experimental results to obtain estimates of the partially sophisticated quasi-hyperbolic discounting model.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"114 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79333070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 20
The Effect of E-Cigarette Taxes on Pre-pregnancy and Prenatal Smoking 电子烟税对孕前和产前吸烟的影响
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/W26126
Rahi Abouk, Scott Adams, Bo Feng, J. Maclean, M. Pesko
{"title":"The Effect of E-Cigarette Taxes on Pre-pregnancy and Prenatal Smoking","authors":"Rahi Abouk, Scott Adams, Bo Feng, J. Maclean, M. Pesko","doi":"10.3386/W26126","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W26126","url":null,"abstract":"We use the universe of birth records in the United States from 2013 to 2017 to examine the effect of e-cigarette taxes on pre-pregnancy smoking, prenatal smoking, and birth outcomes (birth weight, gestational length, and Apgar 5 score). We apply a differences-in-differences model to study these questions. We have two principle findings. First, e-cigarette tax adoption increases pre-pregnancy and prenatal smoking, implying that e-cigarettes and traditional cigarettes are substitutes among pregnant women. Second, in line with clinical literature suggesting that both e-cigarettes and traditional cigarettes are harmful to developing fetuses, birth outcomes are largely unchanged following adoption of an e-cigarette tax. In sum, our results suggest that e-cigarettes reduce prenatal smoking, but have no observable benefit towards the goal of promoting fetal development.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83115163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 15
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