National Bureau of Economic Research最新文献_第5页

A Skeptic’s Guide to Modern Monetary Theory 怀疑论者的现代货币理论指南

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-01-10 DOI: 10.1257/PANDP.20201102

N. Mankiw

引用次数: 38

Who’s Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective 谁在为美国的关税买单?长远的眼光

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2020-01-03 DOI: 10.1257/PANDP.20201018

M. Amiti, S. Redding, David E. Weinstein

引用次数: 64

Do Property Rights Alleviate the Problem of the Commons? Evidence from California Groundwater Rights 产权能缓解公地问题吗?来自加州地下水权利的证据

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2019-09-12 DOI: 10.3386/w26268

A. Ayres, Kyle C. Meng, A. Plantinga

引用次数: 9

Who Chooses Commitment? Evidence and Welfare Implications 谁选择承诺?证据及福利影响

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.3386/W26161

M. Carrera, Heather Royer, Mark Stehr, Justin R. Sydnor, Dmitry Taubinsky

{"title":"Who Chooses Commitment? Evidence and Welfare Implications","authors":"M. Carrera, Heather Royer, Mark Stehr, Justin R. Sydnor, Dmitry Taubinsky","doi":"10.3386/W26161","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W26161","url":null,"abstract":"A large literature treats take-up of commitment contracts, in the form of choice-set restrictions or penalties, as a smoking gun for time-inconsistency or self-control problems (for short, “present focus”). This paper develops techniques for inspecting this assumption, presents new field-experimental results that challenge it, and provides an alternative approach to measuring present focus. Theoretically, we show that in a standard model of quasi-hyperbolic discounting, demand for commitment is unlikely when there is some uncertainty about the future. In a field experiment with 1292 members of a fitness facility, we test for the presence of imperfect perception of contract value and experimenter demand effects in commitment contract take-up by offering contracts both for going to the gym more and for going to the gym less. We find that there is significant take-up of both types of contracts, and that individuals who take up contracts to go to the gym more are the most likely to take up contracts to go the gym less. These starkly conflicting choices are inconsistent with all standard models of present focus, and suggest that offers of commitment contracts may not be well-targeted policy tools. However, we show that a combination of belief forecasts and elicitations of willingness-to-pay for piece-rate incentives provides more robust identification of present focus and people’s awareness of it. We apply the methodology to our experimental results to obtain estimates of the partially sophisticated quasi-hyperbolic discounting model.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"114 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79333070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 20

The Effect of E-Cigarette Taxes on Pre-pregnancy and Prenatal Smoking 电子烟税对孕前和产前吸烟的影响

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/W26126

Rahi Abouk, Scott Adams, Bo Feng, J. Maclean, M. Pesko

引用次数: 15

Do Local Governments Represent Voter Preferences? Evidence from Hospital Financing under the Affordable Care Act 地方政府代表选民的偏好吗?来自《平价医疗法案》下医院融资的证据

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/W26094

Victoria E Perez, J. Ross, K. Simon

引用次数: 3

Capital in the Nineteenth Century 19世纪的《资本论

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226633251.001.0001

R. Gallman, P. Rhode

{"title":"Capital in the Nineteenth Century","authors":"R. Gallman, P. Rhode","doi":"10.7208/chicago/9780226633251.001.0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226633251.001.0001","url":null,"abstract":"When we think about history, we often think about people, events, ideas, and revolutions, but what about the numbers? What do the data tell us about what was, what is, and how things changed over time? Economist Robert E. Gallman (1926–98) gathered extensive data on US capital stock and created a legacy that has, until now, been difficult for researchers to access and appraise in its entirety. Gallman measured American capital stock from a range of perspectives, viewing it as the accumulation of income saved and invested, and as an input into the production process. He used the level and change in the capital stock as proxy measures for long-run economic performance. Analyzing data in this way from the end of the US colonial period to the turn of the twentieth century, Gallman placed our knowledge of the long nineteenth century—the period during which the United States began to experience per capita income growth and became a global economic leader—on a strong empirical foundation. Gallman’s research was painstaking and his analysis meticulous, but he did not publish the material backing to his findings in his lifetime. Here Paul W. Rhode completes this project, giving permanence to a great economist’s insights and craftsmanship. Gallman’s data speak to the role of capital in the economy, which lies at the heart of many of the most pressing issues today.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85482822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 14

Does School Spending Matter? The New Literature on an Old Question 学校开支重要吗?一个老问题的新文学

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/W25368

Kirabo Jackson

引用次数: 108

Behavior within a Clinical Trial and Implications for Mammography Guidelines 临床试验中的行为及其对乳腺x线照相术指南的影响

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.3386/W25049

Amanda E. Kowalski

{"title":"Behavior within a Clinical Trial and Implications for Mammography Guidelines","authors":"Amanda E. Kowalski","doi":"10.3386/W25049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W25049","url":null,"abstract":"I unite the economics and medical literatures by examining behavior within a clinical trial to inform treatment guidelines. I use data from the Canadian National Breast Screening Study, an influential clinical trial on mammography. During the active study period of the trial, a substantial fraction of women in the control group received mammograms, and some women in the intervention group did not. Using this mammography behavior, random assignment within the trial, and a standard model from the economics literature, I divide participants into three groups that differ in how likely they are to receive mammograms. Making comparisons across these groups, I find two important relationships. First, I find heterogeneous selection into mammography: women more likely to receive mammograms are healthier. I find this relationship using a marginal treatment effect model that assumes no more than the local average treatment effect assumptions. Second, I find treatment effect heterogeneity along the margin of selection into mammography: women more likely to receive mammograms are more likely to experience harm from them. I find this relationship using an ancillary assumption that builds on the first empirical relationship. I find additional empirical support for the ancillary assumption using baseline covariates. My findings contribute to the literature concerned about harms from mammography by demonstrating variation across the margin of selection into mammography. This variation is problematic for current mammography guidelines for women in their 40s because it implies that they unintentionally encourage mammography for healthier women who are more likely to experience harm from them.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"132 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82952540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 9

Mirrlees meets Diamond-Mirrlees: simplifying nonlinear income taxation Mirrlees满足Diamond-Mirrlees:简化非线性所得税

National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.3386/W22076

Florian Scheuer, I. Werning

引用次数: 12