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Older Men’s Labor Force Participation in Belgium 比利时老年男性的劳动参与率
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2018-05-31 DOI: 10.3386/W24669
Alain Jousten, M. Lefebvre
{"title":"Older Men’s Labor Force Participation in Belgium","authors":"Alain Jousten, M. Lefebvre","doi":"10.3386/W24669","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W24669","url":null,"abstract":"The paper studies the labor market participation of older workers in Belgium over the last 3 decades. It outlines the changes to the institutional framework of relevance for labor market participation and employment. Drawing on data from the European Union Labour Force Survey (LFS) over the period 1983-2013, we provide evidence of the trends in participation in (early-) retirement routes. We also explore how the jobs occupied by older workers have changed over time, both in terms of their “quality” and the “quantity” of work involved. Part-time work is found to become more common, though with different attributes for men and women.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"102 1","pages":"33-50"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80647486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Take-Up, Drop-Out, and Spending in ACA Marketplaces ACA市场的接受、退出和支出
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2018-05-31 DOI: 10.3386/W24668
Rebecca Diamond, M. Dickstein, Timothy J McQuade, Petra Persson
{"title":"Take-Up, Drop-Out, and Spending in ACA Marketplaces","authors":"Rebecca Diamond, M. Dickstein, Timothy J McQuade, Petra Persson","doi":"10.3386/W24668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W24668","url":null,"abstract":"The Affordable Care Act (ACA) established health insurance marketplaces where consumers can buy individual coverage. Leveraging novel credit card and bank account micro-data, we identify new enrollees in the California marketplace and measure their health spending and premium payments. Following enrollment, we observe dramatic spikes in individuals' health care consumption. We also document widespread attrition, with more than half of all new enrollees dropping coverage before the end of the plan year. Enrollees who drop out re-time health spending to the months of insurance coverage. This drop-out behavior generates a new type of adverse selection: insurers face high costs relative to the premiums collected when they enroll strategic consumers. We show that the pattern of attrition undermines market stability and can drive insurers to exit, even absent differences in enrollees' underlying health risks. Further, using data on plan price increases, we show that insurers largely shift the costs of attrition to non-drop-out enrollees, whose inertia generates low price sensitivity. Our results suggest that campaigns to improve use of social insurance may be more efficient when they jointly target take-up and attrition.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85497499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 21
Leadership in Social Networks: Evidence from the Forty-Eighters in the Civil War 社会网络中的领导力:来自南北战争中的48年代的证据
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2018-05-24 DOI: 10.3386/W24656
C. Dippel, Stephan Heblich
{"title":"Leadership in Social Networks: Evidence from the Forty-Eighters in the Civil War","authors":"C. Dippel, Stephan Heblich","doi":"10.3386/W24656","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W24656","url":null,"abstract":"A growing theoretical literature emphasizes that prominent individuals (‘leaders’) can be instrumental in changing behaviors and beliefs inside social networks, and consequently play an important role in shaping the path of history. We test this assertion in the context of the U.S. Civil War. Our analysis is organized around a natural experiment: leaders of the failed German revolution of 1848-49 were expelled to the U.S., and became important anti-slavery campaigners who helped mobilize Union Army volunteers. We find that towns where Forty-Eighters settled in the 1850s increased their enlistments by ten men per hundred adult males over the course of the war, or roughly eighty percent. The Forty-Eighters’ influence worked at least in part through the local press and local social clubs. In the army, Forty-Eighter officers reduced their companies’ desertion rate. In the long run, towns where Forty-Eighters settled were more likely to form a local branch of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85600600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
Escaping Import Competition in China 逃避中国的进口竞争
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2018-04-19 DOI: 10.3386/w24527
Ana Cecília Fieler, Ann E. Harrison
{"title":"Escaping Import Competition in China","authors":"Ana Cecília Fieler, Ann E. Harrison","doi":"10.3386/w24527","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w24527","url":null,"abstract":"In a stylized model, firms differentiate their products to escape import com- petition. Facing a nested CES demand, each firm chooses between a nest with competitors and its own nest under higher costs. The profit from differentiation is an inverted U-shaped function of firm productivity. It increases with import competition and is lower than the social benefit. Differentiation increases the gains from trade. In establishment data from China spanning its 2001 WTO accession, tariff cuts are associated with increases in productivity, introduction of new goods, switches to skill-intensive sectors. Markups in the model explain the large increases in revenue productivity among small firms and input suppliers.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73282937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Foreign Direct Investment and Knowledge Diffusion in Poor Locations: Evidence from Ethiopia 外国直接投资与贫困地区的知识传播:来自埃塞俄比亚的证据
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2018-03-29 DOI: 10.3386/W24461
G. Abebe, Margaret S. McMillan, Michel Serafinelli
{"title":"Foreign Direct Investment and Knowledge Diffusion in Poor Locations: Evidence from Ethiopia","authors":"G. Abebe, Margaret S. McMillan, Michel Serafinelli","doi":"10.3386/W24461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W24461","url":null,"abstract":"We quantify foreign direct investment (FDI) spillovers by comparing changes in total factor productivity (TFP) among domestic plants in districts that attracted a large greenfield foreign plant and districts where greenfield FDI was licensed but not yet operational. Treated and untreated districts have similar trends in TFP prior to the opening of the large greenfield foreign plant. Over the four years starting with the year of the opening, TFP of domestic plants is 8% higher in treated districts. Using an alternative identification strategy that exploits the assignment of land for FDI by the Ethiopian Government, we obtain similar results. Foreign plants also attract new economic activity to treated districts. Exposure to foreign firms enhances domestic firms’: (i) production processes; (ii) managerial and organizational practices; (iii) logistics and; (iv) knowledge about exporting. Knowledge transfer is more likely among labor or vertically linked firms but also occurs outside these channels.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78229020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 40
What is the Impact of Successful Cyberattacks on Target Firms 成功的网络攻击对目标公司的影响是什么
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2018-03-16 DOI: 10.3386/W24409
Shinichi Kamiya, Jun-Koo Kang, Jungmin Kim, Andreas Milidonis, René M. Stulz
{"title":"What is the Impact of Successful Cyberattacks on Target Firms","authors":"Shinichi Kamiya, Jun-Koo Kang, Jungmin Kim, Andreas Milidonis, René M. Stulz","doi":"10.3386/W24409","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W24409","url":null,"abstract":"We examine which firms are targets of successful cyberattacks and how they are affected. We find that cyberattacks are more likely to occur at larger and more visible firms, more highly valued firms, firms with more intangible assets, and firms with less board attention to risk management. These attacks affect firms adversely when consumer financial information is appropriated, but seem to have little impact otherwise. Attacks where consumer financial information is appropriated are associated with a significant negative stock market reaction, an increase in leverage following greater debt issuance, a deterioration in credit ratings, and an increase in cash flow volatility. These attacks also affect sales growth adversely for large firms and firms in retail industries, and there is evidence that they decrease investment in the short run. Affected firms respond to such attacks by cutting the CEO's bonus as a fraction of total compensation, by reducing the risk-taking incentives of management, and by taking actions to strengthen their risk management. The evidence is consistent with cyberattacks increasing boards' assessment of target firm risk exposures and decreasing their risk appetite.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81422021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
Marriage, labour supply and the dynamics of the social safety net 婚姻、劳动力供给和社会安全网的动态
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2018-02-19 DOI: 10.1920/WP.IFS.2018.W1805
Hamish Low, C. Meghir, Luigi Pistaferri, Alessandra Voena
{"title":"Marriage, labour supply and the dynamics of the social safety net","authors":"Hamish Low, C. Meghir, Luigi Pistaferri, Alessandra Voena","doi":"10.1920/WP.IFS.2018.W1805","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1920/WP.IFS.2018.W1805","url":null,"abstract":"The 1996 PRWORA reform introduced time limits on the receipt of welfare in the United States. We use variation by state and across demographic groups to provide reduced form evidence showing that such limits led to a fall in welfare claims (partly due to \"banking\" benefits for future use), a rise in employment, and a decline in divorce rates. We then specify and estimate a life-cycle model of marriage, labor supply and divorce under limited commitment to better understand the mechanisms behind these behavioral responses, carry out counterfactual analysis with longer run impacts and evaluate the welfare effects of the program. Based on the model, which reproduces the reduced form estimates, we show that among low educated women, instead of relying on TANF, single mothers work more, more mothers remain married, some move to relying only on food stamps and, in ex-ante welfare terms, women are worse off.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80085927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Notice failure revisited: Evidence on the use of virtual patent marking 通知失败重审:关于使用虚拟专利标记的证据
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2018-02-01 DOI: 10.3386/W24288
Gaétan de Rassenfosse
{"title":"Notice failure revisited: Evidence on the use of virtual patent marking","authors":"Gaétan de Rassenfosse","doi":"10.3386/W24288","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W24288","url":null,"abstract":"One source of uncertainty in the patent system relates to the difficulty in identifying products that are protected with a patent. This paper studies the adoption by U.S. patentees of “virtual patent marking,” namely the online provision of constructive notice to the public that an article is patented. It proposes a simple model of the decision to adopt patent marking and empirically examines factors that affect adoption. Data suggest that about 12 percent of patent holders overall provide virtual marking information (and perhaps about 25 percent of commercially active assignees). Econometric analysis suggests that the most discriminant factor of the adoption of virtual marking is the size of the patent portfolio. The likelihood of adoption increases with portfolio size, consistent with evidence that firms with a larger patent portfolio are more likely to be infringed.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77061606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Are Interest Rates Really Low 利率真的很低吗
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2018-01-25 DOI: 10.3386/W24258
D. Feenberg, Clinton Tepper, I. Welch
{"title":"Are Interest Rates Really Low","authors":"D. Feenberg, Clinton Tepper, I. Welch","doi":"10.3386/W24258","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W24258","url":null,"abstract":"Contrary to common perception, many fixed-income investors have not suffered unusually low real interest rates in and after the Great Recession of 2008. This is because taxable investors must first pay taxes on nominal interest returns, before inflation further reduces their earned real interest rates. To obtain the same real after-tax yield, investors need more than one-to-one compensation for inflation. As a result, long-term Treasury bonds have been no less attractive for taxable investors in 2016 (with a 1.0% post-tax real yield) than they were in 2006 (0.5%), 1976 (–1.7%), 1966 (0.9%), and 1956 (0.8%), although they have been less attractive than they were in 1996 (2.4%) and 1986 (2.9%). Short-term Treasury bond yields have been on the low side but have also not been particularly unusual.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89305133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
A Neoclassical Theory of Liquidity Traps 流动性陷阱的新古典理论
National Bureau of Economic Research Pub Date : 2018-01-12 DOI: 10.3386/W24205
S. D. Tella
{"title":"A Neoclassical Theory of Liquidity Traps","authors":"S. D. Tella","doi":"10.3386/W24205","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W24205","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides an equilibrium theory of liquidity traps and the real effects of money. Money provides a safe store of value that prevents interest rates from falling enough during downturns, and the economy enters a persistent slump with depressed investment. This is an equilibrium outcome—prices are flexible, markets clear, and inflation is on target—but it’s not efficient. Investment is too high during booms and too low during liquidity traps. Although money has large real effects, monetary policy is ineffective—the zero lower bound is not binding, money is superneutral, and Ricardian equivalence holds. The optimal allocation requires the Friedman rule and a tax/subsidy on capital.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74225570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
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