Malaria Journal最新文献

{"title":"Natural products as transmission-blocking agents against malaria: a comprehensive review of bioactive compounds and their therapeutic potential.","authors":"Patrick Valere Tsouh Fokou, Mariscal Brice Tchatat Tali, Cedric Derick Jiatsa Mbouna, Lauve Rachel Tchokouaha Yamthe, Javad Sharifi-Rad, Daniela Calina, Radha, Manoj Kumar, Jean Claude Tchouankeu, Fabrice Fekam Boyom","doi":"10.1186/s12936-025-05395-6","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12936-025-05395-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Malaria eradication is hindered by the persistence of transmission stages of Plasmodium falciparum that enable parasite transfer from humans to mosquitoes. Current therapeutic strategies, such as artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) combined with primaquine, are insufficient due to limited efficacy on mature gametocytes and safety concerns in populations with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency. This highlights the critical need for innovative, safe, and effective transmission-blocking interventions. This review explores the potential of natural sources, including medicinal plants, marine organisms, and microorganisms-as reservoirs of novel bioactive compounds with anti-malarial properties. A comprehensive literature search identified promising natural products with gametocytocidal and sporontocidal activity, validated through advanced bioassays. The review also evaluates various methodologies, such as colorimetric, microscopy, and flow cytometry assays, for assessing transmission-blocking efficacy. The findings emphasize the potent gametocytocidal effects of certain plant extracts, such as Azadirachta indica and Vernonia amygdalina, and microbial products, including ionophores and proteasome inhibitors. Despite promising in vitro and in vivo data, the transition of these compounds to clinical applications remains limited. Challenges include standardizing assays, addressing resistance to current therapies, and ensuring drug safety for endemic populations. The current review underscores the untapped potential of natural products as transmission-blocking agents and proposes a systematic, stage-specific screening cascade to identify and optimize these compounds. Addressing these gaps could significantly advance global malaria eradication efforts.</p>","PeriodicalId":18317,"journal":{"name":"Malaria Journal","volume":"24 1","pages":"164"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12105229/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144151006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Social determinants of malaria in low- and middle-income countries: a mixed-methods systematic review.","authors":"Edwinah Atusingwize, Kevin Deane, David Musoke","doi":"10.1186/s12936-025-05407-5","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12936-025-05407-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Malaria remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Factors outside the health sector, including social determinants, such as economic status remain important drivers of malaria in these settings. However, social determinants of malaria generally remain unaddressed in preventing the disease, with the limited existing evidence overly descriptive and fragmented.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A mixed-methods systematic review was conducted to thematically synthesize the current evidence on the social determinants of malaria in LMICs. PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus were searched to identify English articles on the social determinants of malaria published between January 2013 and December 2023. Search terms such as social determinant, socio-cultural, and socioeconomic factors were used. Articles that did not meaningfully engage with the social determinants were excluded.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The 39 articles included in the review were mostly cross-sectional and qualitative studies of moderate quality, in general. Findings indicate a range of social determinants of malaria related to the following overarching themes: environmental factors, access to and use of treatment, preventive interventions use, housing, stakeholder influence, livelihoods and economic development, and poverty. The various social determinants influenced malaria in different ways, including limiting access and use of preventive and treatment interventions and increased exposure to mosquitoes. Poverty and gender intersected with other social determinants such as housing and livelihoods.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Different social determinants of malaria are key drivers of malaria in LMICs. The findings emphasize the need for malaria control efforts to consider social determinants at all levels, including funding, implementation, and evaluation.</p>","PeriodicalId":18317,"journal":{"name":"Malaria Journal","volume":"24 1","pages":"165"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12105309/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144151007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal analysis of Anopheles gambiae larval sites and malaria transmission in Djilakh, Central Senegal.","authors":"Assane Ndiaye, Camille Morlighem, Aminata Niang Diène, Moussa Kane, Abdoulaye Diallo, Fassiatou Tairou, Mohamed Abderemane Nourdine, Pape Cheikh Sarr, Lassana Konaté, Ousmane Faye, Oumar Gaye, El Hadji Amadou Niang, Catherine Linard, Ousmane Sy","doi":"10.1186/s12936-025-05388-5","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12936-025-05388-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The progress made against malaria has resulted in a nationwide reduction of the disease burden in Senegal. The observed overall low transmission levels are, however, marked by an important spatial heterogeneity with hotspots subsisting in several parts of the country. This requires the determination of the local and regional factors of the observed disparities for tailored interventions to accelerate malaria elimination everywhere. This study aimed to demonstrate the role of larval breeding sites on malaria epidemiological trends in Djilakh, which is one of the malaria hotspots of the Mbour health district.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This study was carried out between 2013 and 2017, during the rainy season (June-November) of each year and surveys per year. The malaria incidence consisted of cases confirmed by RDT and climate data, including the rainfall were retrieved from the Mbour weather station. To assess the impact of larval breeding sites on malaria transmission in Djilakh village, logistic regression under the Poisson models were run. The QGIS 2.2.0 free mapping software was used to generate maps.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The results showed that mosquito breeding sites found within and in the vicinity of the study village consisted of natural temporary ponds, characterized by clay and clay-sandy soils. The analysis of meteorological and malaria morbidity indicated that malaria transmission is influenced by precipitation. The correlation between malaria morbidity and functioning breeding sites varied throughout the rainy season, depending on the size and stability of the existing breeding sites. The incidence of malaria cases was significantly higher (82.4%; 103/125; P < 0.011; OR = 27.006) in hamlets closer to the breeding sites (less than 500 m), declining gradually with distance with 17.6% (22/125) of the cases recorded in hamlets located between 500 and 1000 m apart from the larval habitats and, no cases in the most remote hamlets (> 1000 m).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>These findings represent a preliminary step towards a better understanding of how the environmental factors influence the persistence of malaria transmission in the studied hotspot villages in Senegal. The generated results indicate a need for targeted control actions in the studied site.</p>","PeriodicalId":18317,"journal":{"name":"Malaria Journal","volume":"24 1","pages":"167"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12108010/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144150240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does mass chloroquine treatment have any role in the elimination of Plasmodium vivax ?","authors":"Nicholas J White, Somya Mehra, James A Watson","doi":"10.1186/s12936-025-05399-2","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12936-025-05399-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Countries in the Greater Mekong sub-region (GMS) have been encouraged to deploy mass chloroquine treatments given monthly for four months to reduce the burden of vivax malaria. This paper summarizes briefly current knowledge on Plasmodium vivax epidemiology, the biology of vivax relapse and previous experience using dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine mass treatments in the GMS to show why this approach would be extremely cost-ineffective. Around 800 full treatment courses in 200 people would be needed to prevent one symptomatic case. Mass chloroquine treatment will contribute little or nothing to the elimination of vivax malaria in this area.</p>","PeriodicalId":18317,"journal":{"name":"Malaria Journal","volume":"24 1","pages":"166"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12105338/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144151005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prevalence of malaria and associated risk factors among febrile under-five refugee children attending Panyadoli Health Centre III, Kiryandongo District, Mid-western Uganda.","authors":"Dorcus Acan, Robert Opiro, Benson Musinguzi, Bosco B Agaba, Simon Peter Alarakol","doi":"10.1186/s12936-025-05404-8","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12936-025-05404-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Malaria presents a big threat to the health of refugees, internally displaced persons, returnees and other such persons affected by humanitarian emergencies, with almost two thirds of these groups of persons living in malaria endemic regions. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of malaria and associated risk factors among refugee children < 5 years attending a Health Centre in Panyadoli Refugee Settlement Camp, Kiryandongo District, Uganda.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A cross-sectional survey was done between February to April 2022, targeting refugee children < 5 years old seeking healthcare at Panyadoli Health Centre III in Kiryandongo District. Simple random sampling was employed to select 380 participants, who were then tested for the presence of malaria parasites using malaria rapid diagnostic tests and microscopy techniques. Data on risk factors of malaria was collected using a pre-tested and standardized semi-structured questionnaire. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses was used to identify the risk factors for malaria infections, at 95% confidence interval and p < 0.05.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Malaria prevalence among the refugee children < 5 years attending Panyadoli HCIII was 12.6% [95% CI: 8.7-18.0]. The associated risk factors for malaria infection included: non-application of indoor residual spraying over the last 12 months [AOR = 4.323; 95% CI 1.231-7.212], history of malaria in children (AOR = 5.861; 95% CI 1.562-8.433], and not sleeping under insecticide-treated nets (AOR = 3.141; 95% CI 0.865-5.221).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Malaria remains a threat to refugee children < 5 years old at Panyadoli Refugee Settlement Camp. Sustained implementation of IRS should be pursued through expanded geographic coverage and increased application frequency, in conjunction with complementary malaria control measures such as enhanced ITN distribution and IPT for pregnant women, to support long-term malaria reduction.</p>","PeriodicalId":18317,"journal":{"name":"Malaria Journal","volume":"24 1","pages":"162"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12103808/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144142849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of indoor residual spraying on malaria incidence in Ugandan prisons: an interrupted time series analysis.","authors":"Joseph Byaruhanga, James Kisambu, Adoke Yeka, Arthur Bagonza","doi":"10.1186/s12936-025-05422-6","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12936-025-05422-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is an effective intervention for reducing mosquito vector density and malaria transmission. Uganda Prison Services (UPS) routinely implements IRS for malaria control in main prison facilities; however, no assessment of its impact had been performed. The study assessed the general malaria incidence trends for 5 years and determined the impact of IRS on malaria incidence in the main prison facilities in Uganda.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This was a cross-sectional study which employed interrupted time series analysis to determine the effect of IRS programme on malaria incidence in prisons located in two different regions of Uganda. The malaria incidence trends of two prison facilities per region (in similar settings) were compared, one being an IRS intervention facility and the other being a comparison facility (did not receive an IRS) over 5 years (2018-2022) in the central and northern regions of Uganda.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 208 monthly malaria reports from all selected facilities (4) were reviewed. The peak malaria incidence rate was recorded from September to December across the years in both regions. The lowest incidence rate was recorded from January to March. The average monthly malaria incidence rate for the study period was much lower among the intervention facilities (7.1 and 13.3 cases per 1000 population per month for the central and northern regions, respectively) than among the comparison facilities (177.0 and 170.6 cases per 1000 population per month for the central and northern regions, respectively). The post-IRS intervention periods had lower malaria incidence rates than the pre-IRS periods across the intervention facilities in both regions. The IRS intervention had a statistically significant effect on reducing the malaria incidence rate in the intervention facility located in the northern region (slope: P = 0.001, CI [21.9, 67.7]).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Indoor residual spraying reduced the malaria incidence rate among the intervention facilities in both regions, but a significant impact was recorded in the northern region, which is a region with higher malaria transmission rates than the central region. In situations of limited resources, IRS implementation should prioritize prisons located in high malaria transmission areas to achieve significant impacts.</p>","PeriodicalId":18317,"journal":{"name":"Malaria Journal","volume":"24 1","pages":"163"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12105299/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144142848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prevalence, awareness, treatment-seeking behaviours and its implications in the control of malaria in Dumbu community, Donga-Mantung Division, North West Region, Cameroon.","authors":"Joan E E Eyong, Calvin B Ebai, Purity Awah, Antoine S Kada","doi":"10.1186/s12936-025-05249-1","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12936-025-05249-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Malaria remains a major public health problem in Cameroon where it accounts for high rates of morbidity and mortality. The management of the disease has been made worst in the North West region of Cameroon and in Dumbu in particular by the on-going socio-political crisis since 2016, which has limited the transport of drugs to this community and has also forced the inhabitants of this community to rely on traditional concoctions for treatment with the notion that it is cheap. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of malaria, assess the malaria awareness level, the treatment-seeking behaviours, and its implications on the prevalence of malaria in the Dumbu community.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Questionnaires were administered to consented individuals. Blood samples were collected by finger prick using sterile lancets and blood films prepared on well labelled glass slides. The dry blood films were stained using a 3% Giemsa staining solution for 30 min. Data was collected were later analysed using SPSS.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Out of the 385 persons screened, malaria was recorded in 107 persons (27.8%). Those in the age group 11-25 years old were the most infected with malaria prevalence of 32.3% (41/127) while those in the age group ≥ 50 years recorded the least prevalence [19.3% (11/57)] and the difference was not significant (χ² = 3.716, p = 0.294). Yaoundé quarter recorded the highest prevalence 32.7% (35/107) and males were more infected than females. On awareness level, they have heard of malaria and knew its causal agent to be an infected mosquito, 48.3% considered fever as the sign of the infection. Sixty-nine-point 8 percent (69.8%) of the population rushes to the health centre for treatment while 5.6% prefers herbal treatment.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Malaria is still a health challenge in this area and people infected should be advised to seek treatment, whenever they have malaria from a health facility to ensure that the treatment given is appropriate.</p>","PeriodicalId":18317,"journal":{"name":"Malaria Journal","volume":"24 1","pages":"161"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12100826/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144128049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Malaria control among Myanmar migrants in Thailand: a qualitative study of healthcare providers.","authors":"Nichakan Inthitanon, Piyarat Sripoorote, Yupaporn Wattanagoon, Pattamaporn Petchvijit, Ammarind Anantjitsupha, Kyawt Mon Win, Nattawan Rachaphaew, Khaing Zin Zin Htwe, Kritsana Suk-Aum, Peeriya Watakulsin, Liwang Cui, Jetsumon Sattabongkot, Daniel M Parker, Wang Nguitragool, Pyae Linn Aung","doi":"10.1186/s12936-025-05397-4","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12936-025-05397-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Thailand has experienced a recent surge in malaria cases, particularly along the Thailand-Myanmar border, likely driven by the importation of infections by Myanmar migrants. Implementing malaria control measures, especially surveillance among these high-risk populations, presents significant challenges. This study aimed to identify key obstacles and propose targeted solutions for enhancing malaria control among Myanmar migrants in border areas of Thailand.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A cross-sectional qualitative study was conducted in early 2024. Semi-structured interviews were held with 20 government healthcare providers and village health volunteers involved in malaria control across three districts in western Thailand with the highest malaria caseloads. Data were analysed using thematic analysis.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Respondents consistently linked the rise in malaria cases to increased cross-border migration from Myanmar following recent political unrest. Key challenges included difficulty locating and following up with short-term or undocumented migrants, language barriers that hinder health education, and delays in diagnosis because of limited infrastructure and reliance on rapid diagnostic tests in areas without electricity. Suggested solutions included deploying mobile malaria posts near informal border crossings, mandating malaria testing before worksite entry, and engaging local employers and community leaders to register new arrivals and support treatment adherence among migrants.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Ongoing political instability in Myanmar continues to drive a large and dynamic population of migrants into Thailand's border regions, sustaining malaria importation and complicating elimination efforts. Tailored, migrant-responsive strategies, such as mobile surveillance near border crossings, community-based follow-up mechanisms, and infrastructure improvements, are urgently needed to close coverage gaps and achieve malaria elimination by 2030.</p>","PeriodicalId":18317,"journal":{"name":"Malaria Journal","volume":"24 1","pages":"160"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12096533/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144128036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seasonal malaria chemoprevention in northern Mozambique: a cost-effectiveness analysis.","authors":"Neide Canana, Ivan Alejandro Pulido Tarquino, Sónia Enosse, Kevin Baker, Maria Rodrigues, Christian Rassi, Akashdeep Singh Chauhan, Chuks Nnaji, Baltazar Candrinho, Elisa M Maffioli","doi":"10.1186/s12936-025-05401-x","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12936-025-05401-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Malaria is endemic in Mozambique and one of the leading causes of death in children under 5 years old. In 2020 the country adopted the WHO-recommended seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) strategy and delivered the intervention in all 23 districts of Nampula province between January and April 2023. The aim of this study is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of SMC in Nampula, Mozambique.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Financial cost of implementing SMC were estimated from a limited health care provider perspective for the year 2023 in US$. Data on resource use of the SMC implementation was assessed from Malaria Consortium records. The number of eligible and treated children was collected from surveys after cycle 4. The number of malaria cases, deaths and Disability Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs) averted were estimated based on data from Global Burden of Disease 2019, Malaria Indicator Survey 2018, and National Malaria Control Programme. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated, and sensitivity analyses were used to test the robustness of the ICERs.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The total financial cost of SMC implementation in Nampula province in 2023 was estimated to be $7,871,361.72. The study estimated a cost per targeted child of $6.05 and a cost per child who received full 3-day course of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine in combination with amodiaquine (SPAQ) of $7.92. Furthermore, the cost per household with eligible children visited by a community distributor was $7.65; the cost per child who received day 1 SPAQ was $7.85 and the cost per child who received day 1 SPAQ by community distributor adhering to directly observed treatment was $8.50. In addition, the estimated cost was $93.50 per malaria case averted, $3286.59 per malaria death averted, and $130.16 per DALY averted. The ICERs were robust to a variety of alternative assumptions on costs and benefit estimates. Finally, $1,726,189.63 could have been saved if no ineligible children (60-119 months old) were treated through the programme.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>In line with existing evidence from other African countries, SMC is found to be cost-effective in Mozambique. SMC is a beneficial prevention strategy to improve under-five health in the country, at a relatively low-cost.</p>","PeriodicalId":18317,"journal":{"name":"Malaria Journal","volume":"24 1","pages":"159"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12096524/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144120107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecasting malaria cases using climate variability in Sierra Leone.","authors":"Saidu Wurie Jalloh, Boniface Malenje, Herbert Imboga, Mary H Hodges","doi":"10.1186/s12936-025-05389-4","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12936-025-05389-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Malaria continues to pose a public health challenge in Sierra Leone, where timely and accurate forecasting can guide more effective interventions. Although seasonal models such as Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) have traditionally been employed for disease forecasting, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have gained attention for capturing complex temporal patterns that linear models may not fully capture.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This study compares the forecasting performance of SARIMA and ANN models in forecasting malaria cases using malaria case data from 2018 to 2023. A baseline SARIMA model was developed and improved with exogenous climatic variables (precipitation, maximum temperature, and mean relative humidity) to form a SARIMAX approach. In parallel, an ANN was trained solely on historical malaria cases, without adding climatic variables.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>SARIMA offered reasonable predictive capabilities but was outperformed by the ANN, which captured complex temporal patterns more effectively, decreasing forecast errors and improving its coefficient of determination <math><mrow><mo>(</mo> <msup><mi>R</mi> <mn>2</mn></msup> <mo>)</mo></mrow> </math> . The SARIMA model achieved an MAPE of 12.01%, which improved further to an MAPE of 11.45% with the inclusion of climatic variables. A strong positive correlation between precipitation (r = 0.68) and malaria cases was observed, while maximum temperature showed a moderate negative correlation (r = <math><mrow><mo>-</mo> <mn>0.45</mn></mrow> </math> ), and mean relative humidity demonstrated a moderate positive correlation (r = 0.55). The ANN model outperformed both the baseline SARIMA and SARIMAX models with the lowest MAPE of 6.68%.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>These findings underscore the ANN's ability to capture non-linear dynamics, even without explicit climate inputs. These results reinforce the value of machine learning modelling approaches in guiding malaria control strategies, particularly in high-burden settings like Sierra Leone.</p>","PeriodicalId":18317,"journal":{"name":"Malaria Journal","volume":"24 1","pages":"158"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12093741/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144111345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}