Landslides最新文献

{"title":"3D stability analysis of submarine slopes: a probabilistic approach incorporating strain-softening behaviour","authors":"Nabil Sultan, Sébastien Garziglia","doi":"10.1007/s10346-024-02317-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02317-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Submarine landslides exhibiting extreme geometrical and run-out characteristics have been identified and mapped along most continental margins; raising concerns about potential risks to populations should similar events occur. Hazards associated with such events have frequently been assessed using approximations, resulting in data unsuitable for mitigation strategies. Three approximations appear consequential: (i) addressing the problem in two dimensions, thereby neglecting the effect of complex morphology; (ii) employing a deterministic approach that disregards uncertainty related to the heterogeneity of sediment properties; and (iii) treating the sediment as a perfectly elastic–plastic material, simplifying the mechanical behaviour and overlooking the degradation of sediment mechanical properties (strain softening) during different phases of slope movement. Here, we introduced the strain-softening behaviour into a 3D slope stability model. Identification of the critical failure surface was conducted in terms of the probability of failure, considering the influence of sediment parameter variability and uncertainty on the likelihood of failure. The developed model was then used to assess the slope stability of a well-studied example from the literature, the Nice slope (SE France). Our findings indicate that neglecting lateral morphological changes leads to an overestimation of the probability of failure. Additionally, we demonstrated that strain-softening behaviour could significantly affect the factor of safety and the probability of failure for the studied slopes. We argue that a risk assessment and definition of a mitigation strategy require well-advanced characterisation of the mechanical behaviour of sedimentary layers and an analysis incorporating the complex morphology of submarine slopes.</p>","PeriodicalId":17938,"journal":{"name":"Landslides","volume":"342 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141746355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Efficient risk assessment of landslide dam breach floods in the Yarlung Tsangpo river basin","authors":"Danyi Shen, Zhenming Shi, Ming Peng, Hongchao Zheng, Jiangtao Yang, Limin Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s10346-024-02309-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02309-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The sudden and unpredictable breach of landslide dams in the Yarlung Tsangpo river basin usually causes megafloods, posing great risks to human lives and infrastructures in the downstream areas. This study proposed an efficient and quantitative risk assessment framework of breach floods caused by landslide dam failures in the mainstream and tributaries of the Yarlung Tsangpo river basin with limited data. The impact of dam breach floods on human risks was evaluated. The flood attenuation along rivers, strategies for mitigating overlapping floods, and sensitivity analysis of human risks were also discussed. The results show that the developed framework successfully assessed flood risks caused by the breach of landslide dams. The flood attenuation ratio increased with river length but decreased with the peak discharge at dam site. A higher peak discharge and a larger inundated area downstream were predicted when the breach floods of two landslide dams, one in mainstream and the other in a tributary, overlapped at the confluence. The overlapping flood could be mitigated by reducing peak discharges of the two landslide dams or increasing time interval between the two peaks. The simulations also outlined the downstream peak discharge resulting from the cascading breach was larger than that of a single dam. However, it was smaller than the combined peak discharges of two separate dams, because the erosion during the breach of the downstream dam incurred energy dissipation. The human risks in the Pasighat village were greater when overlapping flood occurred due to the increased water depth and more hazardous inundated buildings. In the case of multi-peak floods, the warnings for the former peak flood would also warn the peak flood thereafter when individuals were notified multiple peaks. Otherwise, individuals might be misled by the warning of the previous peak flood, resulting in catastrophic flood impacts. A parametric analysis indicated that early evacuation warnings were needed to avoid serious loss of life and flood damages, especially in cases of dam breaches occurring at nighttime or for areas in close proximity to the dam site.</p>","PeriodicalId":17938,"journal":{"name":"Landslides","volume":"64 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141742821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Fuyang shallow landslides triggered by an extreme rainstorm on 22 July 2023 in Zhejiang, China","authors":"Qing Lü, Junyu Wu, Zhenghua Liu, Zhongxuan Liao, Zihao Deng","doi":"10.1007/s10346-024-02314-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02314-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p>An extreme rainstorm hit Fuyang District, Zhejiang Province, China, on 22 July 2023. A record-breaking 320 mm of rain fell in less than 48 h. In the early evening of 22 July, more than 145 shallow landslides emerged in a 20 km² hilly area of Fuyang amid turbulent flash flooding and claimed five lives. Post-event field investigations and laboratory experiments were urgently carried out, targeting two geologically typical shallow landslides, to decipher the initiation mechanism and distributing features of the regionally distributed landslides. The main findings are summarized as follows: (1) The week-long rainfall preceding the event and the intense storm on 22 July are presumably primary triggers for the landslides. Besides rainfall, convergent topography of hollows may be another important factor influencing the initiation of landslides. (2) The dominant moso bamboo has an extensive and interconnected root system, which could significantly stabilize slopes by enhancing soil strength and restricting cracks. (3) The sedimentary <i>Heshangzhen Group</i> area is more susceptible to landslides than the igneous <i>Shuangxiwu Group</i> area. Bedrock lithologies affect landslide distribution through controlling soil structures and properties to shape the hillslope hydrology and also through influencing landscape morphology. This study offers new evidence and insights into the lithological control on landslide initiation and distribution.</p>","PeriodicalId":17938,"journal":{"name":"Landslides","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141717866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rock avalanches in northeastern Baffin Island, Canada: understanding low occurrence amid high hazard potential","authors":"Maureen C. Matthew, John C. Gosse, Reginald L. Hermanns, Alexandre Normandeau, Tommy Tremblay","doi":"10.1007/s10346-024-02315-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02315-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rock avalanches in fjord environments can cause direct catastrophic damage and trigger secondary submarine landslides and tsunamis. These are well-documented in Greenland, Norway, and Alaska but have gone largely unreported in the extensive fjord terrain of the eastern Canadian Arctic. We provide the first inventory of rock avalanche deposits in northeastern Baffin Island—a region characterized by moderate to high seismic hazard, steep and high-walled fjords and glacial valleys, active deglaciation, and observed climate warming. Over a broad study area of ~60,000 km², one sixth of the terrain had sufficient slope height and gradient to potentially generate rock avalanches. Within that hazard zone, we identified eight rock avalanche deposits at six locations. Only three rock avalanche deposits at two locations are dated, using aerial imagery (1958-present), to the last century while five deposits at four locations are inferred as syn- to post-glacial, likely occurring shortly after local debuttressing. These total numbers fall well below documented inventories from Greenland, Norway, and Alaska. We hypothesize that (1) continuous permafrost persists throughout this region and continues to act as a stabilizing factor and (2) rock mass quality is high in areas of most extreme relief contrast within the study region relative to analogous high-latitude fjord systems such as those in southwestern Greenland. We suggest that Baffin Island is currently in a period of quasi-stability that follows the intense instability during initial deglaciation, yet precedes the higher anticipated slope instability that may occur during permafrost degradation.</p>","PeriodicalId":17938,"journal":{"name":"Landslides","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141717910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Discrete element analysis of deformation and failure characteristics in a slope affected by corrosion deterioration and underground mining: a case study of the Jiweishan landslide, China","authors":"Zhongping Yang, Qian Zhao, Shiqi Li, Yalong Zhao, Xinrong Liu, Zuliang Zhong","doi":"10.1007/s10346-024-02308-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02308-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The present study uses the Jiweishan landslide in Wulong District, Chongqing City, China, as an example to design a numerical simulation technique to examine two environmental consequences: corrosion deterioration and underground mining. A shear strength prediction model for the corrosion rate of the structural plane was thus proposed by mimicking the time-dependent weakening characteristics of structural planes by using strength reduction. The discrete element simulation method was applied to reproduce the complete process of dangerous rock body movement and slope instability under the effects of these two factors to clarify the influence of environmental and engineering effects on slope deformation behaviour. This was intended to clarify the overburden movement process, fracture evolution law, and rock formation subsidence characteristics of karst mountains affected by mining from the perspective of geomechanics, and the results showed that the deformation evolution process of the Jiweishan landslide can be divided into two stages: the slow chronic deformation caused by long-term corrosion deterioration and the more severe acute deformation caused by short-term underground mining. The overburden movement and fracture evolution seen under corrosion deterioration and underground mining thus represent a progressive evolutionary process with full spatial and temporal continuity. Corrosion is a long-term synchronous process that creates the transformation of numerous structural planes around a dangerous rock body. Underground mining, in contrast, is typically a short-term trigger factor that can nevertheless easily cause significant differential adjustment of the movement characteristics of different parts of a dangerous rock body that result in distinct spatial differentiations of dangerous rock body movement. Further, the subsidence deformation characteristics of the rock formation plane mainly depend on the spatial position and scale of the goaf created by such mining. Analysing the stress characteristics of the relevant inclined rock strata helps clarify the control mechanism of a mountain’s spatial structure’s adaptive adjustment. The simulation results in this case were also compared with the results of centrifuge tests and physical model tests to verify the rationality of the simulation scheme, and the conclusions thus remove provide an important reference for the study of landslide development processes and instability mechanisms under multi-factor coupling conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":17938,"journal":{"name":"Landslides","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141717911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A global-scale applicable framework of landslide dam formation susceptibility","authors":"Hang Wu, Mark A. Trigg, William Murphy, Raul Fuentes, Salvatore Martino, Carlo Esposito, Gian Marco Marmoni, Gabriele Scarascia Mugnozza","doi":"10.1007/s10346-024-02306-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02306-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The formation and failure of landslide dams is an important and understudied, multi-hazard topic. A framework of landslide dam formation susceptibility evaluation was designed for large-scale studies to avoid the traditional dependence on landslide volume calculations based on empirical relationships, which requires comprehensive local inventories of landslides and landslide dams. The framework combines logistic regression landslide susceptibility models and global fluvial datasets and was tested in Italy and Japan based on landslide and landslide dam inventories collected globally. The final landslide dam formation susceptibility index identifies which river reach is most prone to landslide dam formation, based on the river width and the landslide susceptibility in the adjacent delineated slope drainage areas. The logistic regression models showed good performances with area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values of 0.89 in Italy and 0.74 in Japan. The index effectively identifies the probability of landslide dam formation for specific river reaches, as demonstrated by the higher index values for river reaches with past landslide dam records. The framework is designed to be applied globally or for other large-scale study regions, especially for less studied data-scarce regions. It also provides a preliminary evaluation result for smaller catchments and has the potential to be applied at a more detailed scale with local datasets.</p>","PeriodicalId":17938,"journal":{"name":"Landslides","volume":"79 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141610259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Research on the method of determining landslide threshold based on accelerating point dynamic identification","authors":"Xinmin Hou, Yifan Liu, Jiangbo Xu, Zhanhui Qu, Fanghui Cheng, Shaohua Chen, Xuzhen Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s10346-024-02305-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02305-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article employs dynamic recognition of acceleration points to determine velocity thresholds for different deformation stages of landslides. It proposes a dimensionless time parameter, <i>t</i>_w, and analyzes over 60 slope cases using probability statistical methods to establish landslide threshold levels. Finally, based on various threshold determination methods and the dimensionless time threshold method, it establishes multiple early warning threshold indicators for rocky slopes along National Highway G312. The study validates the applicability of the dimensionless time threshold method by using landslide cases outside the statistical slope dataset. The research indicates the following: (1) The “two-sample <i>t</i>-test” method determines <i>t</i>_w = 0.24 and <i>t</i>_w = 0.39 as the first-level and second-level early warning thresholds for slopes, respectively. (2) The “ROC curve” method calculates an AUC of 0.85, confirming the high reliability and accuracy of the dimensionless time threshold method. (3) Using the dimensionless time threshold method, the analysis determines the first-level and second-level landslide thresholds for a landslide in Zhenggeer Banner, Ordos City, Inner Mongolia, as 84.03 h and 91.53 h, respectively. The second-level threshold provides an early warning time only 2.7 h ahead of the actual landslide time, demonstrating timely and accurate landslide prediction.</p>","PeriodicalId":17938,"journal":{"name":"Landslides","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141614591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Redundancy and hierarchical cluster analyses for characterizing geomorphic features contributing to the formation of landslide dams","authors":"Ho-Wen Chen, Chien-Yuan Chen, Yen-Hsun Chuang","doi":"10.1007/s10346-024-02310-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02310-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Landslides frequently produce dams that can cause widespread destruction when breached. Several factors influence the formation of landslide dams. This study used redundant analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis to investigate geomorphic features contributing to the formation of landslide dams. Eight landslide geomorphic features corresponding to the width of the river beneath the landslide and four geomorphic indices were selected to explore the geomorphic characteristics of 28 river-damming and 59 nondamming landslides in Taiwan. The redundancy analysis revealed that the geomorphic features derived for the river-damming landslides differed from those derived for the nondamming landslides. The width of the river beneath the landslide was noted to be strongly correlated with the aspect of nondamming landslides. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to cluster the river-damming landslides into three clusters based on the geomorphic features influencing dam formation. Based on these clusters, the landslide site may be damming rivers under different geomorphic combination conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":17938,"journal":{"name":"Landslides","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141568572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The giant mid-Holocene Linka rock avalanche with long-runout river blockage in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Zunhong Ke, Fuchu Dai, Qihui Fan, Yanchen Guo, Siyuan Zhao","doi":"10.1007/s10346-024-02311-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02311-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As a response to rapid tectonic uplift and intense river incision, giant river-damming landslides have frequently occurred in the mountain and canyon region of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. These landslides in turn can transiently affect the longitudinal profile evolution of rivers. The ca. 440 Mm³ channelized Linka rock avalanche initiated as a giant translational rockslide on the south-facing dip slope of the NW-trending divide of the Waqu catchment. The detached rock mass involved the thick and resistant Wada limestone, and the underlying Basu red-bed unit, comprising sandstone, conglomerate, and siltstone. The NWW-striking bedding planes and the SE-dipping joint set bounded the landslide source area at its base and sides, respectively, and a buckling failure controlled by the high-angle SW-dipping joints at the slope toe induced this giant mass-movement event. The rock slope failure was likely triggered by an earthquake that occurred at ca. 5.5 ka before present, probably corresponding to a prehistorical rupture on the active Bianba-Luolong Fault Zone. The confined rock avalanche deposits, covering ca. 5.5 km², rode up both of the constraining ridges that laterally constrained the motion path. The instantaneous velocity as the rock avalanche traveled through the distal bend of the motion path was calculated to be ca. 34 m/s using a superelevation-based equation. The rock avalanche traveled a horizontal distance of ca. 5970 m with a vertical drop of 1380 m, displaying a high mobility (<i>H</i>/<i>L</i> index value of 0.231), which can be attributed primarily to dynamic rock fragmentation. This giant mass-movement event completely blocked the Waqu River with a ca. 170-m high dam. This natural dam has experienced breaches at least 6 times (including 1 seepage failure and 5 subsequent overtopping failures), and the largest peak discharge from the 1st seepage failure was estimated to be ~ 19,500 m³/s. The formation and breaching of the natural dam have caused a transient but extremely profound influence on the longitudinal profile evolution of the Waqu River. This research involving landslide initiation, displacement, deposition, and the formation and breaching of the landslide dam can help enhance the understanding of effective risk assessments of landslide-induced disaster chains in high-relief regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":17938,"journal":{"name":"Landslides","volume":"2015 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141568573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A preliminary investigation of the small rockfall triggering conditions along a road network in Slovenia","authors":"Ela Šegina, Mateja Jemec Auflič, Matjaž Mikoš, Nejc Bezak","doi":"10.1007/s10346-024-02302-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02302-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rockfalls are among the natural hazards that endanger infrastructure, cause major economic disruptions, and threaten human lives. These phenomena result from long-term geological processes such as tectonic rock deformation or weathering, but the actual rockfall itself occurs suddenly, usually without warning. The triggering mechanisms are complex and difficult to trace. In this study, we investigated the triggering mechanisms of more than 2100 small rockfalls that occurred in 2021 in Slovenia, Europe, along the 51,000 km long national road network. We analyzed their spatial and temporal characteristics, as well as the triggering mechanisms of their occurrence, based on different weather scenarios. Multiple data mining methods were used to investigate triggering conditions, and scenario analyses were used to understand the triggering mechanisms. Most small rockfalls in 2021 were recorded in winter and spring at a density of 1 rockfall per 10 km². The results show that winter weather conditions have the greatest potential for triggering small rockfalls in Slovenia, both in terms of spatial extent and frequency of triggering weather conditions. The analysis showed that summer storms are an important but indeterminant factor for the occurrence of small rockfalls. Among the scenarios tested, the winter scenario, which includes a combination of antecedent precipitation, snowmelt, and freeze‒thaw cycles a few days before the event, was able to predict 72% of the events in the colder season.</p>","PeriodicalId":17938,"journal":{"name":"Landslides","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141568574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}