基于加速点动态识别的滑坡阈值确定方法研究

IF 5.8 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL
Xinmin Hou, Yifan Liu, Jiangbo Xu, Zhanhui Qu, Fanghui Cheng, Shaohua Chen, Xuzhen Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文采用动态识别加速点的方法来确定滑坡不同变形阶段的速度阈值。文章提出了一个无量纲时间参数 tw,并利用概率统计方法分析了 60 多个斜坡案例,以确定滑坡阈值水平。最后,基于各种阈值确定方法和无量纲时间阈值方法,建立了 G312 国道沿线岩质边坡的多个预警阈值指标。研究通过使用统计边坡数据集之外的滑坡案例,验证了无量纲时间阈值法的适用性。研究表明(1) "双样本 t 检验 "法分别确定 tw = 0.24 和 tw = 0.39 为斜坡的一级和二级预警阈值。(2) "ROC 曲线 "法计算出的 AUC 为 0.85,证实了无量纲时间阈值法的高可靠性和准确性。(3)利用无量纲时间阈值法,分析确定内蒙古鄂尔多斯市正镶白旗滑坡的一级和二级阈值分别为 84.03 h 和 91.53 h。二级阈值的预警时间仅比实际滑坡时间提前 2.7 h,体现了滑坡预测的及时性和准确性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Research on the method of determining landslide threshold based on accelerating point dynamic identification

Research on the method of determining landslide threshold based on accelerating point dynamic identification

This article employs dynamic recognition of acceleration points to determine velocity thresholds for different deformation stages of landslides. It proposes a dimensionless time parameter, tw, and analyzes over 60 slope cases using probability statistical methods to establish landslide threshold levels. Finally, based on various threshold determination methods and the dimensionless time threshold method, it establishes multiple early warning threshold indicators for rocky slopes along National Highway G312. The study validates the applicability of the dimensionless time threshold method by using landslide cases outside the statistical slope dataset. The research indicates the following: (1) The “two-sample t-test” method determines tw = 0.24 and tw = 0.39 as the first-level and second-level early warning thresholds for slopes, respectively. (2) The “ROC curve” method calculates an AUC of 0.85, confirming the high reliability and accuracy of the dimensionless time threshold method. (3) Using the dimensionless time threshold method, the analysis determines the first-level and second-level landslide thresholds for a landslide in Zhenggeer Banner, Ordos City, Inner Mongolia, as 84.03 h and 91.53 h, respectively. The second-level threshold provides an early warning time only 2.7 h ahead of the actual landslide time, demonstrating timely and accurate landslide prediction.

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来源期刊
Landslides
Landslides 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
13.60
自引率
14.90%
发文量
191
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Landslides are gravitational mass movements of rock, debris or earth. They may occur in conjunction with other major natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Expanding urbanization and changing land-use practices have increased the incidence of landslide disasters. Landslides as catastrophic events include human injury, loss of life and economic devastation and are studied as part of the fields of earth, water and engineering sciences. The aim of the journal Landslides is to be the common platform for the publication of integrated research on landslide processes, hazards, risk analysis, mitigation, and the protection of our cultural heritage and the environment. The journal publishes research papers, news of recent landslide events and information on the activities of the International Consortium on Landslides. - Landslide dynamics, mechanisms and processes - Landslide risk evaluation: hazard assessment, hazard mapping, and vulnerability assessment - Geological, Geotechnical, Hydrological and Geophysical modeling - Effects of meteorological, hydrological and global climatic change factors - Monitoring including remote sensing and other non-invasive systems - New technology, expert and intelligent systems - Application of GIS techniques - Rock slides, rock falls, debris flows, earth flows, and lateral spreads - Large-scale landslides, lahars and pyroclastic flows in volcanic zones - Marine and reservoir related landslides - Landslide related tsunamis and seiches - Landslide disasters in urban areas and along critical infrastructure - Landslides and natural resources - Land development and land-use practices - Landslide remedial measures / prevention works - Temporal and spatial prediction of landslides - Early warning and evacuation - Global landslide database
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