Journal of Seismology最新文献

{"title":"Rupture process and strong ground motion generation of the November 13, 2017 Mw 6.5 Costa Rica earthquake","authors":"Aaron Moya","doi":"10.1007/s10950-026-10466-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10950-026-10466-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The 13 November 2017 Mw 6.5 Costa Rica earthquake provides an important case study for investigating the relationship between subducted seafloor relief and earthquake source complexity. A first-order finite-fault inversion was conducted using teleseismic broadband and regional strong-motion records processed with the Wavelet Inversion for SliP package (WISP) to resolve low-frequency rupture characteristics. High-frequency source properties were subsequently investigated using the empirical Green’s function (EGF) method. The preferred finite-fault model reveals a fault plane approximately 32 km long and 28 km wide, characterized by a single principal slip patch centered near the hypocenter with a maximum displacement of 1.17 m. High-frequency modeling identifies a compact Strong Motion Generation Area (SMGA) of approximately 62.4 km² located within the northwestern portion of the rupture plane near Jacó city, with an elevated localized stress drop of 32.4 MPa. Synthetic waveforms successfully reproduce observed arrival times, shaking durations, velocity and displacement pulses, and spectral characteristics recorded across the regional accelerographic network, particularly at near-field stations. Ultimately, the compact rupture footprint and high stress drop link the event to a structural asperity from seamount subduction, demonstrating severe near-field shaking risks for Costa Rica’s central Pacific region.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Seismology","volume":"30 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149214609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal variations of earthquake source parameters in the aswan high dam reservoir region: constraints on reservoir-modulated seismicity","authors":"Sayed S. R. Moustafa,&nbsp;Hamada Saadalla,&nbsp;Mohamed Metwaly,&nbsp;Ahmad M. Faried","doi":"10.1007/s10950-026-10460-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10950-026-10460-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates earthquake source characteristics and their spatiotemporal variability in the Aswan High Dam Reservoir (AHDR) region using 1,193 earthquakes (<span>(0.76 le M_L le 4.2)</span>) recorded during 2010–2022. Source-parameter analysis is based on 1,175 events with <span>(M_Lle 3.0)</span>, which were used for spatiotemporal analyses. Seismic moment (<span>(M_0)</span>) and S-wave corner frequency (<span>(f_c)</span>) were estimated from path- and site-corrected spectra using Brune’s <span>(omega ^2)</span> source model, and apparent stress drop was calculated assuming a circular seismic source. For the 1,175-event source-parameter dataset, the mean corner frequency is 13.61 Hz and the median apparent stress drop is 0.688 bar. Earthquake-level bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrap resampling yields 95% confidence intervals of 13.46–13.79 Hz for mean <span>(f_c)</span> and 1.251–1.578 bar for mean apparent stress drop. Generalized Orthogonal Regression gives <span>(log _{10}(f_c/textrm{Hz}) = 6.698-0.306log _{10}[M_0/(mathrm {dyn,cm})])</span>, with a 95% bootstrap confidence interval of <span>([-0.3377,-0.2808])</span> for the slope. This interval includes the self-similar value of <span>(-1/3)</span>, indicating that the source scaling of the <span>(M_Lle 3.0)</span> earthquakes is statistically compatible with constant-stress-drop scaling under the adopted source and error models (error-variance ratio <span>(lambda =0.005)</span>; this compatibility is not retained for <span>(lambda ge 0.006)</span>). Inclusion of all 1,193 fitted events yields a shallower slope of <span>(-0.2706)</span> (95% CI: <span>([-0.2968,-0.2481])</span>), indicating sensitivity of the inferred scaling to the analyzed magnitude range. The 1,175 events show significant spatial clustering but no statistically significant recurrent monthly seasonality (Friedman test across years, <span>(chi ^2=18.5)</span>, 11 d.f., <span>(p=0.071)</span>). Gutenberg–Richter analysis of the complete catalog gives <i>b</i>-values of <span>(0.88pm 0.06)</span>, <span>(0.90pm 0.04)</span>, and <span>(1.92pm 0.38)</span> for 2010–2013, 2014–2017, and 2018–2022, with completeness magnitudes of 1.8, 1.5, and 2.0; the 2018–2022 estimate rests on only 25 events and is poorly constrained. The results indicate substantial source heterogeneity within a fault-controlled seismic system. Although hydrological modulation is physically plausible, the observational record does not independently establish reservoir forcing, as it lacks concurrent measurements of both reservoir level and subsurface pore pressure.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Seismology","volume":"30 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149214608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Introducing a tutorial for legacy seismograms preservation preceded by a short review of the long way to seismic recording","authors":"J. Batlló,&nbsp;M. T. Merino,&nbsp;T. Andrades","doi":"10.1007/s10950-026-10464-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10950-026-10464-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Legacy seismograms contain a wealth of original and scientifically valuable data that remain largely underutilized. Their preservation, dissemination, and use are therefore key issues, as their waveforms can provide new insights for contemporary research. To date, efforts by international bodies such as IASPEI and the ESC have focused primarily on the latter two aspects. In contrast, the preservation of original records has largely depended on local initiatives undertaken by the institutions that own them. In this context, we present an initiative developed by the ESC Working Group on legacy data: a short manual on seismogram preservation. The manual is primarily intended to assist smaller institutions in addressing this challenge, while also fostering discussion and promoting the development of more consistent and standardized methodologies across institutions. We also take this opportunity to outline the evolution of seismic recording, from antiquity to the early twentieth century, highlighting the technical challenges that had to be overcome and the significant advances achieved for seismological science. Also, we provide a brief overview of the efforts carried out by IASPEI and the ESC in the field of legacy seismograms.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Seismology","volume":"30 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149189261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Overcoming the limitations of empirical Green's functions: High-frequency source imaging of the 2013 Mw 6.6 Lushan, China, earthquake with an extended envelope inversion","authors":"Deyu Yin,&nbsp;Yang Tang,&nbsp;Shouhua Liu,&nbsp;Yadong Chen,&nbsp;Shuyi Zhao","doi":"10.1007/s10950-026-10456-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10950-026-10456-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study develops an improved envelope inversion method that overcomes a key limitation of traditional empirical Green’s function based envelope inversion, the requirement that every station must record both a large earthquake and suitable small earthquakes. Instead, we establish an envelope parameter attenuation model using regional historical small thrust-type earthquakes along the Longmen Shan fault zone, thereby accounting for source mechanism, propagation path, and, to some extent, local site conditions in a statistical sense. The attenuation model represents the average trend of envelope parameters and, despite its inherent smoothing of fine waveform details, enables the use of all available near-field stations without requiring collocated small earthquake records. The method is applied to the 2013 Lushan M_w6.6 earthquake using horizontal-component records from 24 near-field stations. A non-normalized objective function is adopted to give greater weight to large-amplitude near-field records, which are most sensitive to high-frequency radiation and provide stronger constraints on its distribution. The results indicate that: (1) The optimal high-frequency radiation model for the Lushan earthquake requires not only a primary fault plane but also a secondary fault on the hanging wall. High-frequency radiation from this secondary fault significantly improves the synthetic envelope fit at stations BXD, BXY, BXZ, and BXM, which are located immediately adjacent to the fault. (2) On the main fault, high-frequency radiation is primarily concentrated in three regions. One region is located around the initial rupture point. This may be attributable to both rupture initiation and the failure of high-stress drop area. The second region is located near the surface at the southwest end of the fault. The third region is located along the fault margins, where rupture ceased to excite high-frequency radiation. High-frequency radiation propagates along the secondary fault plane from the rupture initiation point to the near-surface region on the northeast side. (3) On the main fault, the strongest high-frequency radiation at the rupture initiation point occurs in the shallow zone characterized by large slip. Variations in vertical energy radiation may be caused by the distinctive blind-thrust source structure of the Lushan earthquake. The peak in high-frequency radiation occurs 6–12 s after rupture initiation, following the peak in low-frequency energy radiation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Seismology","volume":"30 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149189185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Maximum observed magnitude of earthquakes induced by fluid injection: associated factors and predictive performance across projects","authors":"Hua Yu,&nbsp;Yong Chen,&nbsp;Guoyong Sui,&nbsp;Miao Wang,&nbsp;Qin Liang,&nbsp;JunYi Liu","doi":"10.1007/s10950-026-10461-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10950-026-10461-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Reliable assessment of the maximum observed magnitude (M_obs) of injection induced earthquakes is important for seismic risk analysis. We analyzed 50 induced seismicity records from 39 projects using three complementary analytical frameworks, with all validation grouped by Project ID. Regression adjusted for operation type assessed lithology’s additional contribution to M_obs. Nested validation grouped by project compared a low capacity regularized multilayer perceptron (MLP) with ridge regression to assess predictive performance. Log linear models assessed associations between M_obs and individual continuous predictors measured before the event, adjusting for fracturing depth. Operation type provided comparatively stable information, whereas broad lithological categories added no stable independent information after adjustment. Among the continuous variables, cumulative injection volume before the event defining M_obs (V_pre) showed the clearest positive association. In the model containing fracturing depth and V_pre, the coefficient of log₁₀(V_pre) was 0.640 Mw per decade (95% confidence interval: 0.439 to 0.841; <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001). Maximum injection pressure, maximum injection rate, and fault length showed no stable independent associations. Nested leave one project out validation using 25 complete records from 21 projects yielded an R² of 0.501, a root mean square error of 0.776 Mw, and a mean absolute error of 0.590 Mw for the MLP. Performance differences from ridge regression were uncertain, and performance was similar to the linear model containing depth and volume (R² = 0.486). Overall, operation type and cumulative injection volume provided the most consistent empirical information, with no stable additional predictive benefit from the MLP.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Seismology","volume":"30 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149189184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhancing seismic demand assessment through explainable artificial intelligence and Predictive Power Score-based ground motion parameter selection","authors":"Hayri Baytan Ozmen,&nbsp;Mustafa Hayri Kesikoglu","doi":"10.1007/s10950-026-10463-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10950-026-10463-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Effective seismic risk management requires reliable, interpretable, and data-driven models to navigate the highly stochastic and uncertain characteristics of earthquake ground motions. Conventional ground motion intensity measures (GMIMs) often provide limited decision support in seismic demand modeling because they inadequately represent the complex, nonlinear, and interaction-driven relationships between seismic inputs and structural vulnerabilities. To address these uncertainties, this study presents an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) framework that employs the Predictive Power Score (PPS) as a robust, data-driven metric to support hybrid ground motion parameter selection for seismic demand assessment. The framework is evaluated using a large-scale dataset comprising 492,096 nonlinear time history simulations generated from 466 ground motion records and 1,056 structural models. Twenty scalar GMIMs and 190 hybrid parameter combinations are assessed based on their ability to predict displacement demand, a key indicator of seismic risk. Results indicate that the Velocity Spectrum Intensity and Effective Design Acceleration hybrid achieves the highest predictive performance with a PPS value of 0.674, representing a 14.4% improvement over the best scalar measure (VSI, PPS = 0.589, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001) and a 20.7% reduction in mean absolute error. Statistical robustness is confirmed using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests and 10,000 bootstrap resampling iterations. Model transparency is ensured using Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP), which unravel the \"black-box\" nature of the predictions and reveal physically consistent, synergistic relationships between ground motion characteristics. Overall, the framework strengthens risk-informed decision-making and stochastic demand assessment for low- to mid-rise reinforced concrete (RC) buildings in shallow-crustal seismic zones, significantly reducing predictive uncertainties.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Seismology","volume":"30 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149132565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seismic site characterization and nonlinear ground response analysis of Islamabad, Pakistan","authors":"Muhammad Yasir,&nbsp;Waqas Ahmed,&nbsp;Hammad Raza,&nbsp;Muhammad Waseem,&nbsp;Sarfraz Khan,&nbsp;Ihtisham Islam,&nbsp;Salman Ahmed Khattak","doi":"10.1007/s10950-026-10458-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10950-026-10458-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study evaluates nonlinear site amplification in Islamabad, Pakistan, a region located near the Himalayan tectonic front and characterized by high seismic hazard. Local soil conditions play a critical role in modifying ground-motion characteristics and influencing seismic demand. A comprehensive dataset of 180 boreholes, including 30 newly drilled and laboratory-tested sites, was used to construct representative subsurface profiles reflecting the heterogeneous stratigraphy of the study area. Shear-wave velocity (<i>Vs</i>) profiles were estimated using a region-specific SPT-<i>V</i>_<i>s</i> correlation and extended to 30 m depth to determine <i>V</i>_<i>S30</i>-based site classification. Ten representative soil profiles, corresponding to BCP (2021) Site Classes C and D, were analyzed using DEEPSOIL with a pressure-dependent hyperbolic GQ/H model calibrated against Darendeli (2001) modulus-reduction and damping relationships. A suite of seven recorded ground motions was used to evaluate nonlinear site response. Results indicate that shallow stiff-soil sites, Class C, exhibit pronounced short-period amplification at T ≈ 0.15 to 0.30 s, with elevated surface accelerations. In contrast, deeper soft-soil sites, Class D, show broader amplification extending toward intermediate periods, associated with thicker and lower-velocity deposits. The derived average site coefficients, Fa ≈ 1.59 and Fv ≈ 1.16 for Class C, and Fa ≈ 1.78 and Fv ≈ 1.47 for Class D, differ from current BCP (2021) values, indicating potential underestimation of short-period demand and overestimation of long-period response in some cases. These results highlight the importance of site-specific analysis for improving seismic design and microzonation in Islamabad<b>.</b> However, given the limited number of representative profiles and associated uncertainties, the results should be interpreted as site-specific and indicative rather than broadly generalizable.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Seismology","volume":"30 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149132403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The past, present, future and applications of Canada’s analog seismic data","authors":"Allison L. Bent,&nbsp;John F. Cassidy","doi":"10.1007/s10950-026-10417-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10950-026-10417-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Canada has been seismologically instrumented for more than one hundred twenty-five years. Analog instruments were first deployed in Canada in 1897 and dominated seismic monitoring for almost a century until they were replaced by digital instruments, first deployed in the late 1970s in Canada. Although many analog seismograms have been lost, approximately one million remain. These records contain a wealth of data about earthquakes, explosions and many other phenomena. The analog seismogram collection is currently stored in a secure location and has legal protection. However, access is difficult and a path to scanning and digitizing the records remains elusive. Scanning and digitizing are necessary for modern analysis techniques to be used to unlock their secrets. Some of Canada’s largest, historical earthquakes have been analyzed using techniques of the 1980s and 1990s but science has progressed considerably in recent decades and all events would benefit from the application of newer analysis methods. There has been more success in converting textual records, such as station bulletins, to accessible, digital formats. This paper discusses the history of Canada’s legacy seismic data as well as challenges, successes and thoughts on moving forward.</p>","PeriodicalId":16994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Seismology","volume":"30 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10950-026-10417-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149132404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Surface-wave magnitudes from the global Milne seismograph network (1897–1912): methodology and implication for moment magnitude conversion","authors":"Silvia Scolaro","doi":"10.1007/s10950-026-10457-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10950-026-10457-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The global network of Milne seismographs, operated under the coordination of the British Association for the Advancement of Science from 1897 to 1912, was the first globally distributed instrumental seismographic network. Trace amplitude readings from the Shide Circular bulletins, combined with an instrument-specific calibration that corrects for the resonant amplification of undamped Milne seismographs, were later used to derive a set of surface-wave magnitudes Ms estimates for shallow earthquakes of this period. This study presents the first Generalized Orthogonal Regression conversion formula specifically calibrated for the Milne seismograph network period (1897–1912), relating these Ms values to moment magnitude Mw and applies it to produce an updated Mw proxy dataset. The resulting instrument-specific calibration extends Mw proxy information to major earthquakes of the Milne network period, particularly to pre-1904 events for which standardized global instrumental magnitude estimates are unavailable. These results highlight the complementary value of calibrated Milne observations for improving the characterization of major earthquakes during the earliest instrumental period. These findings further highlight that early analog data represent an irreplaceable resource, whose systematic recovery and critical reanalysis are essential for the improved characterization of historical seismicity and assessments of long-term seismic hazard.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Seismology","volume":"30 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149133263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Kinematic evolution of the Northern Red Sea Region inferred from probabilistic moment tensor summation","authors":"Ali Abdelfattah,&nbsp;Mohamed Ezzelarab,&nbsp;Chokri Jallouli,&nbsp;Hassan Alzahrani","doi":"10.1007/s10950-026-10446-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10950-026-10446-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We present a probabilistic assessment of present-day crustal deformation by integrating seismic moment-tensor summation with nonparametric bootstrap resampling of focal mechanisms and seismicity parameters across three distinct zones: The Gulf of Suez, the northern Red Sea axial rift, and the Gulf of Aqaba. By explicitly propagating uncertainties associated with focal-mechanism geometry (strike, dip, rake) and seismicity parameters (a, b-values, and Mmax), we derive statistically robust moment, strain-rate, and model-equivalent velocity tensors for each domain. The results reveal weak but measurable seismic deformation in the Gulf of Suez (strain-rate magnitude ~ 10⁻⁷ yr⁻¹), still lower and more heterogeneous extension in the northern Red Sea (~ 10⁻⁹ yr⁻¹), and the strongest strike-slip to transtensional deformation in the Gulf of Aqaba (~ 10⁻⁶ yr⁻¹). These tensors are independently corroborated by published focal-mechanism stress inversions, with which they share consistent deformation styles and principal-axis orientations. Although seismicity may occur due to stress transfer or reactivation triggered by earthquakes from adjacent active source zones, the results indicate a regional transition from an earlier Red Sea–Suez rifting phase toward markedly decelerated rifting in both the Gulf of Suez and the northern Red Sea, while active deformation localizes along the Gulf of Aqaba. The systematic discrepancy between seismic and geodetic deformation indicates that a substantial fraction of the total plate-boundary strain is accommodated aseismically through fault creep, dyking, and viscous lower-crustal flow, with direct implications for seismic hazard assessment across the region. Bootstrap convergence diagnostics confirm stable resolution of the dominant deformation style in each tectonic domain while preserving physically meaningful uncertainty where deformation is intrinsically weak or heterogeneous. Collectively, these results demonstrate that the Sinai triple junction operates as a diffuse plate boundary in which deformation is strongly partitioned between transform shear, waning rifting, and weakly coupled axial extension, with aseismic processes playing a key role in accommodating plate motions. The velocity tensors are treated as model-equivalent kinematic quantities derived from the seismic moment budget and are therefore interpreted together with the moment and strain-rate tensors, rather than as direct GPS-equivalent opening or slip rates.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Seismology","volume":"30 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149133264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}