Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries最新文献

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Damage assessment of buildings under combustible gas explosion resulting from urban gas pipelines leak
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术
Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105635
Xinhong Li, Mengdi Yang, Jie Ma, Xin Ning, Runquan Li
{"title":"Damage assessment of buildings under combustible gas explosion resulting from urban gas pipelines leak","authors":"Xinhong Li,&nbsp;Mengdi Yang,&nbsp;Jie Ma,&nbsp;Xin Ning,&nbsp;Runquan Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105635","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105635","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban natural gas pipeline leak and explosion accident can cause the catastrophic consequences, which threaten the safety of adjacent buildings. This paper presents a nonlinear dynamics simulation model for damage assessment of buildings under combustible gas explosion from urban gas pipelines leak. The dynamic response characteristics of the buildings adjacent to natural gas pipelines during the explosions are investigated considering the varying filling methods and gas concentrations. The model was verified by a real accident case. It can be seen that the damage is the most widespread when the combustible gas cloud is filled to the upper part of confined space, and the concentration increase of combustible gas can lead to the increase of damage in building. About 9.5 % concentration of combustible gas cloud cause the highest damage degree. The outcomes can support the safety design of building adjacent to urban natural gas pipelines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 105635"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143642845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Systematic literature review on the risk assessment of ammonia refrigeration systems in the food industry
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术
Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-03-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105629
Muhammad Najib Jaafar , Masli Irwan Rosli , Darman Nordin , Junaidah Buhari
{"title":"Systematic literature review on the risk assessment of ammonia refrigeration systems in the food industry","authors":"Muhammad Najib Jaafar ,&nbsp;Masli Irwan Rosli ,&nbsp;Darman Nordin ,&nbsp;Junaidah Buhari","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105629","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105629","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Refrigeration technology plays a crucial role in sustainable development due to its usage in a wide range of fields, including air cooling, food preservation, chemical processing, and biological applications. However, employees in the food industry face significant occupational hazards due to insufficient preventive measures and mitigating protocols. This study conducts a systematic literature review on the safety and health of workers in the food industry using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) approach. A stringent eligibility procedure yielded 15 articles that were systematically analysed. A thematic analysis of these studies revealed four main themes: the main risk factors associated with ammonia refrigeration systems, comparisons of various risk assessment approaches, software used in quantitative risk assessment calculations, and the efficacy of risk management measures that have been proposed or implemented in the food industry. A further exploration of these themes revealed an additional 12 sub-themes. This review highlights the benefits of consolidating findings from a diverse range of research studies, which can help stakeholders formulate strategies that are aligned with the requirements, capabilities, and interests of food industry manufacturers. This study also provides recommendations for future research to prospective scholars in this field.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 105629"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143611022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Digitalisation in the fight against major accidents
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术
Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105608
Michal Lesňák , Vendula Laciok , Aleš Bernatík
{"title":"Digitalisation in the fight against major accidents","authors":"Michal Lesňák ,&nbsp;Vendula Laciok ,&nbsp;Aleš Bernatík","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105608","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105608","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of the dynamic digital age, the prevention of major accidents has become a critical priority. The advent of digitalisation facilitates the development of innovative tools to help prevent the causes of such incidents. The use of simulation and virtual reality (VR) enables the realistic replication of hazardous scenarios, facilitating the practice of safe working procedures. This approach has been shown to increase risk awareness, improve safety skills and knowledge, and facilitate the implementation of enhanced preventive measures.</div><div>A review of historical data reveals a large number of cases where serious accidents have occurred as a result of human factors and inadequate safety measures. In this context, digitalisation offers a wealth of opportunities. The use of simulations and VR allows for more accurate risk identification and assessment, improved worker training and education, and the evaluation of novel work practices. As a result, human error can be minimised and the risk of major accidents significantly minimised. This article examines the role of digitalisation in the prevention of major accidents, with a particular focus on its ability to avert such incidents. The paper examines the principles of simulation and VR, highlighting their importance in preventing tragic events. The conclusion summarises the key points of the preceding discussion and underscores the significance of digitisation in building a safer industrial environment for the digital age.</div><div>In addition to simulations and virtual reality, digitalisation provides a range of further tools, including the collection and analysis of process safety data, the use of artificial intelligence for risk prediction, and the development of smart safety systems. Collectively, these tools contribute to a safer workplace and offer stronger protections for workers, thereby advancing accident prevention in the digital age.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 105608"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143696728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Risk evaluation of submarine pipelines using improved FMEA model based on social network analysis and extended GLDS method under a linguistic Z-number preference relation environment 在语言 Z 数字偏好关系环境下,使用基于社会网络分析的改进 FMEA 模型和扩展 GLDS 方法对海底管道进行风险评估
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术
Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105611
Meng Zhan , Yan-Lai Li
{"title":"Risk evaluation of submarine pipelines using improved FMEA model based on social network analysis and extended GLDS method under a linguistic Z-number preference relation environment","authors":"Meng Zhan ,&nbsp;Yan-Lai Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105611","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105611","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the lifeline of offshore hydrocarbon resources advancement and transmission, conducting risk evaluations is crucial to mitigate potential endangers related to submarine pipelines. The improved failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) method has been widely applied in the risk analysis of submarine pipelines. But most studies evaluated the failure items directly, ignoring the risk attitudes of groups and individuals. Moreover, the impact of trust relationships in social network, consistency and credibility of risk references on final results are not considered. Thus, a novel FMEA method based on social network analysis and extended gained and lost dominance score (GLDS) is presented for risk assessment of submarine pipelines with enhanced reliability. Firstly, the linguistic Z-number preference relations (LZNPRs) are adopted to describe the risk preferences of experts through pairwise comparisons of failure items. And consistency checking and repairing algorithms are proceeded on contradictory evaluations. Secondly, a synthetic weighting model is raised to measure the expert weights considering the trust relationships in social network, the consistency and credibility of expert comments. Finally, the key failure modes considering the differentiated risk attitude are derived by extending GLDS with LZNPRs. The results of case analysis indicate that device failure is the most critical failure item, standing out with its maximum group utility value (1.0463), minimum individual regret value (0.1435), and corresponding maximum overall risk performance (0.2565). On this foundation, more targeted measures can be supervised to further improve safety level. The reliability and validity of the developed model are demonstrated through comparative and sensitivity analysis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 105611"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143593503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modeling failure time of atmospheric tanks with safety barriers under multiple pool fires
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术
Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105619
Feng Zhang , Mingguang Zhang , Xueliang Tan , Jiahao Yang , Junjie Zhu
{"title":"Modeling failure time of atmospheric tanks with safety barriers under multiple pool fires","authors":"Feng Zhang ,&nbsp;Mingguang Zhang ,&nbsp;Xueliang Tan ,&nbsp;Jiahao Yang ,&nbsp;Junjie Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105619","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105619","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Chemical parks are often characterized by the layout of numerous large atmospheric storage tanks, which may trigger domino effect when they encounter pool fire accidents, eventually leading to major damage that cannot be prevented. Safety barriers are necessary to effectively mitigate and prevent the possibility of incidents. Previous studies have not focused on the expansion of domino accidents caused with pool fires under safety barriers. To address this shortcoming, this study investigates failure scenarios with the coupling influence of multiple pool fires in safety barriers. Three atmospheric storage tanks were selected and analyzed as domino accident scenarios and were laid out as isosceles triangles. which conforms to the national standard GB50341-2014. Numerical simulation study of atmospheric storage tanks with multiple pool fires under safety barriers. The atmospheric tanks with volumes of 1000 m<sup>3</sup>, 2000 m<sup>3</sup>, 3000 m<sup>3</sup> and 5000 m<sup>3</sup> were selected. Flame temperature derived from Pyrosim was inputted into the finite element model. The fireproof coating and water sprinklers are selected as typical safety barriers, and this design criterion meets the domestic requirements. ABAQUS was used to conduct intricate numerical simulations of temperature and stress fields within the targeted tanks. The results showed that the target tank with safety barriers had a longer failure time than the target tank without safety barriers under multiple pool fire conditions. The comparison of stress and yield strength was used to determine whether the target tank failed or not. The failure time of tanks under safety barriers and multiple pool fires was modeled. Through the verification, the model was validated to have a deviation of 4.02%, which is superior to the 15.76% deviation of Cozzani's model. This study provides valuable insights for improving the safety and risk management of chemical parks, offering a foundation for the design of more resilient storage tank systems in industrial settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 105619"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143593593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of favorable conditions within chemical process units on vapour cloud explosion overpressures
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术
Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105617
Zhenmin Luo , Gang Wu , Fangming Cheng , Tao Wang
{"title":"The effect of favorable conditions within chemical process units on vapour cloud explosion overpressures","authors":"Zhenmin Luo ,&nbsp;Gang Wu ,&nbsp;Fangming Cheng ,&nbsp;Tao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105617","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105617","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accidents of flammable gas leaks and explosions are very likely to occur in process units of chemical plants due to various devices. Moreover, these facilities cause serious turbulence in the flow field, which may result in an explosion intensity that is difficult to be observed in previous conventional experiments. In this paper, we used the professional industrial disaster assessment software FLACS to reconstruct a real-size production unit, and obtained explosion overpressures under several cases by changing the size, concentration, location and ignition point of gas clouds. The experimental results demonstrate that the congestion of objects in an open environment can cause the explosion overpressure of cube-shaped gas clouds to reach a threshold sufficient to cause death or serious damage to facilities. However, this is not the case for pancake-shaped clouds. Furthermore, the explosion of confined spaces with large <em>L/D</em> ratios, as well as gas clouds covering multiple confined spaces, produce significantly greater blast overpressures than a single confined space, particularly if the ignition occurs in any one of these confined spaces. For a particular type of confined space, a reasonable method of characterizing the peak overpressure in terms of a degree of confinement parameter is proposed, and the two have a good linear correlation. There exist significant variations in the most sensitive concentrations during the overpressure rise phase corresponding to different operating conditions, whereas the range of most sensitive concentrations during the overpressure decline phase is concentrated within <em>Φ</em> = 1.3–1.4. Finally, the overpressure distribution patterns in the circumferential and elevational directions under a variety of cases are obtained for the most common cylindrical devices, and the determining factors affecting the results are discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 105617"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143576971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Adjustment of generic frequencies for major accident hazards: Case of SEVESO establishments
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术
Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105610
Hefaidh Hadef , Wafa Boulagouas , Mebarek Djebabra
{"title":"Adjustment of generic frequencies for major accident hazards: Case of SEVESO establishments","authors":"Hefaidh Hadef ,&nbsp;Wafa Boulagouas ,&nbsp;Mebarek Djebabra","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105610","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105610","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The direct use of generic frequencies from databases to assess Major Accident Hazards (MAH) can introduce substantial biases in risk assessment. These generic data are inherently uncertain, as they fail to reflect the specific operational conditions of a given facility. Such biases may result in either overestimation, which can lead to excessive and costly safety investments, or underestimation, which compromises the adequacy of risk mitigation measures.</div><div>To address these limitations, this paper proposes an integrated adjustment approach specifically designed for quantitative risk analysis to manage the uncertainties associated with generic data. The proposed approach enables the adjustment of generic failure frequencies by incorporating technical factors related to safety barriers (e.g., the probability of failure on demand), and operational management factors. Additionally, it considers the time-dependent degradation of equipment, i.e., the degradation factor.</div><div>The applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach in industrial risk management are illustrated through a case study involving a pressurized equipment system (a three-phase separator). The findings highlight its significant advantages in managing industrial risks, particularly in SEVESO Establishments, when compared to existing techniques.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 105610"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143601704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A human, organizational and technical factors (HOTF) -based gas transmission station functional division risk analysis method using EW-TOPSIS and Adversarial ISM
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术
Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105609
Weijun Li , Mingzhu Zhu , Jiwang Zhang , Jiahao Liu
{"title":"A human, organizational and technical factors (HOTF) -based gas transmission station functional division risk analysis method using EW-TOPSIS and Adversarial ISM","authors":"Weijun Li ,&nbsp;Mingzhu Zhu ,&nbsp;Jiwang Zhang ,&nbsp;Jiahao Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105609","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105609","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Gas transmission station is the hub for long-distance natural gas transportation. Once an accident occurs at the station, the stability of gas supply will be affected. It is necessary to conduct a comprehensive risk analysis for the gas transmission station. Gas transmission station is seen as a complex system involving human, organizational and technical factors (HOTF). Most studies in the field of gas transmission station risk analysis have only focused on evaluating risk of technical factors. The present study constructs the safety index evaluation system from the aspects of human, technical and organizational risk factors. By incorporating Entropy Weight improved Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (EW-TOPSIS) and Adversarial Interpretive Structure Modeling (AISM), this paper proposes a new gas transmission station risk analysis method. Taking eleven functional divisions of gas transmission stations as the research object, the weight of safety index is determined using EW and the weighted distance from each index to positive ideal solutions and negative ones is calculated using TOPSIS method, based on which the risk levels of different functional divisions are determined. Further considering the interaction of risk associations between different functional divisions, AISM is adopted to classify the risk association levels of functional division. The high-risk divisions of gas transmission station are identified based on both safety level sorting and risk correlation hierarchy division. The findings can contribute to a better understanding of risk distribution in gas transmission stations, which helps the rational allocation of safety management resources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 105609"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143593501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comparative experimental study on inhibition of methane explosion by ultra-fine water mist containing different additives
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术
Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105607
Zeyu Zhang, Ke Yang, Xiaoyang Du, Dongyu Ji, Hong Ji, Juncheng Jiang
{"title":"Comparative experimental study on inhibition of methane explosion by ultra-fine water mist containing different additives","authors":"Zeyu Zhang,&nbsp;Ke Yang,&nbsp;Xiaoyang Du,&nbsp;Dongyu Ji,&nbsp;Hong Ji,&nbsp;Juncheng Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105607","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105607","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study utilized a 2.5L visual pipeline experiment platform to investigate the inhibitory effect of ultra-fine water mist containing different additives on methane explosion. It provides a more comprehensive experimental foundation for the subsequent research on methane explosion suppression. The experiment analyzed the particle size parameters of ultra-fine water mist and the effect of different additives on the inhibition of pipeline methane explosion. The results showed that the explosion overpressure of ultra-fine water mist containing KBr, FeCl2, and PPFBS was significantly lower than that of pure methane and pure water ultra-fine water mist with the same amount of spray. The best inhibition effect was observed with 5% KBr, 0.82% FeCl2, and 0.07% PPFBS. Compared to 5 mL pure water mist, the explosion overpressure decreased by 19.49%, 16.87%, and 46.3%, and the flame propagation speed decreased by 18.7%, 15.55%, and 41.65%, respectively. It is proved that the listed additives have different degrees of inhibiting effects on methane explosion. The composite additive ultra-fine water mist had a greater effect on temperature and reacted with a large number of free radicals such as H and O, which hindered the chain reaction in the process of methane combustion most obviously. The four additives have the best explosion suppression effect: compound additive, PPFBS, KBr, and FeCL2. The main mechanism of the effect of different inorganic salt additives is that the ultra-fine water mist cools the reaction zone's temperature, and affects the gas's volume ratio after dilution and vaporization, and some evaporated crystals also play the role of attenuating heat radiation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 105607"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143576970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantitative risk model and safety assessment of flammable working fluid leakage and explosion in a limited space
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术
Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105620
Jian Li, Zhao Yang, Hongxia He, Changzhen Guo, Yubo Chen, Yong Zhang
{"title":"Quantitative risk model and safety assessment of flammable working fluid leakage and explosion in a limited space","authors":"Jian Li,&nbsp;Zhao Yang,&nbsp;Hongxia He,&nbsp;Changzhen Guo,&nbsp;Yubo Chen,&nbsp;Yong Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105620","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105620","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>At present, to ensure the secure utilization of flammable working fluids, quantitative risk assessment has become a critical issue. In this study, information diffusion, Markov, and Monte Carlo simulation methodologies are employed to develop a probability-based risk model based on combined forecasting and modifying techniques for quantitative risk assessment, focusing on scenarios involving the leakage and explosion of flammable working fluids within limited spaces. This model comprises three distinct components, designed to evaluate leakage and explosion accidents through information diffusion processing of existing accident data, probability proportion calculation based on Markov time series forecasts, and Monte Carlo simulation of leakage conditions and environmental parameters. The case study of the refrigeration systems indicates that, despite the comparatively higher likelihood of igniting for larger leakage scales, the danger of explosion under small leaks is higher due to the high order of magnitude of leakage. As the degree of leakage increases, the risk of explosion escalates considerably, potentially exceeding the risk tolerance range, necessitating the adoption of appropriate risk control measures. The risk results associated with flammable working fluids are compared under identical leakage conditions, revealing that the risk of mixed working fluids in a limited space is largely dependent on the ratio of leaked components. Although the addition of flame retardants to flammable working fluids proves to be an effective risk mitigation measure, it needs to be integrated with consideration of the charge mass in the refrigeration system. Furthermore, the consequences of an explosion can be evaluated using the overpressure model to assess the probability of damage to personnel and buildings. On this basis, the model offers the ability to provide quantitative risk mitigation strategies, and the validation of its calculation outcomes through comparison highlights its applicability across diverse scenarios, particularly in limited space.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 105620"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143593438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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