Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries最新文献

{"title":"Quantitative risk model and safety assessment of flammable working fluid leakage and explosion in a limited space","authors":"Jian Li,&nbsp;Zhao Yang,&nbsp;Hongxia He,&nbsp;Changzhen Guo,&nbsp;Yubo Chen,&nbsp;Yong Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105620","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105620","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>At present, to ensure the secure utilization of flammable working fluids, quantitative risk assessment has become a critical issue. In this study, information diffusion, Markov, and Monte Carlo simulation methodologies are employed to develop a probability-based risk model based on combined forecasting and modifying techniques for quantitative risk assessment, focusing on scenarios involving the leakage and explosion of flammable working fluids within limited spaces. This model comprises three distinct components, designed to evaluate leakage and explosion accidents through information diffusion processing of existing accident data, probability proportion calculation based on Markov time series forecasts, and Monte Carlo simulation of leakage conditions and environmental parameters. The case study of the refrigeration systems indicates that, despite the comparatively higher likelihood of igniting for larger leakage scales, the danger of explosion under small leaks is higher due to the high order of magnitude of leakage. As the degree of leakage increases, the risk of explosion escalates considerably, potentially exceeding the risk tolerance range, necessitating the adoption of appropriate risk control measures. The risk results associated with flammable working fluids are compared under identical leakage conditions, revealing that the risk of mixed working fluids in a limited space is largely dependent on the ratio of leaked components. Although the addition of flame retardants to flammable working fluids proves to be an effective risk mitigation measure, it needs to be integrated with consideration of the charge mass in the refrigeration system. Furthermore, the consequences of an explosion can be evaluated using the overpressure model to assess the probability of damage to personnel and buildings. On this basis, the model offers the ability to provide quantitative risk mitigation strategies, and the validation of its calculation outcomes through comparison highlights its applicability across diverse scenarios, particularly in limited space.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 105620"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143593438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Large-scale experimental study of open, impinging and confined hydrogen jet fires","authors":"Christoph Meraner,&nbsp;Reidar Stølen,&nbsp;Ellen Synnøve Skilbred,&nbsp;Tian Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105614","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105614","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hydrogen tanks used in transportation are equipped with thermal pressure relief devices to prevent a tank rapture in case of fire exposure. The opening of the pressure relief valve, in such a scenario, would likely result in an impinging and (semi-) confined hydrogen jet fire. Therefore, twelve large-scale experiments of hydrogen jet fires and one large-scale propane reference experiment have been conducted with various degrees of confinement, orientations of the jet, and distances from the nozzle to the impinging surface. Infrared and visible light videos, temperatures, heat fluxes, and mass flow rate of hydrogen or propane were recorded in each experiment. It was found that the hydrogen flame can be visible under certain conditions. The main difference between an open impinging jet and an enclosed impinging jet fire is the extent of the high-temperature region in the steel target. During the impinging jet fire test, 51% of the exposed target area exceeded 400 °C, while 80% of the comparable area exceeded 400 °C during the confined jet fire test. A comparison was also made to an enclosed propane jet fire. The temperature distribution during the propane fire was more uniform than during the hydrogen jet fire, and the localized hot spot in the impact region, as seen in the hydrogen jet fires, was not recorded.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 105614"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143561988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An event-driven modeling methodology of situation awareness: Towards emergency response process in fire-induced domino scenario","authors":"Lixing Zhou ,&nbsp;Guohua Chen ,&nbsp;Xiaoming Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105618","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105618","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The fire-induced domino scenario in chemical industry park will cause catastrophic consequences because of the various combinations of space-scale accident scenarios and complex evolutionary contingencies. Previous studies on domino effects focus on pre-accident prevention, while limited studies considering the safety protection to firefighters from the domino effects in emergency response are presented. Based on spatial-temporal characteristics of fire-induced domino scenario evolution, situation awareness (SA) is adopted, and the hierarchical application scheme of SA is designed to combine information-rich fire domino scenario and the decision-making of emergency response. Simultaneously, the fatality risk (FR) is selected as the critical objective; the fatality risk considering the synergistic effects is comprehended; an event-driven prediction of SA based on the state transition mechanism analyzed by the event tree analysis (ETA) is proposed, and the time-dependent and spatial-distributed fatality risk of conventional domino accidents and complex Natech events can be mapped through intuitive visualization. The results show that the evolution of the domino effect has a strong temporal-spatial correlation, and the proposed method demonstrates a certain level of reliability in analyzing results, which can help firefighters make decision and take actions to ensure their safety.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 105618"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143593502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Research on leakage control of river oil and gas pipelines based on accident situation evolution model","authors":"Jian Kang ,&nbsp;Xiangxuan Meng ,&nbsp;Tao Su ,&nbsp;Weichun Chang ,&nbsp;Zhixing Wang ,&nbsp;Han Wang ,&nbsp;Yi Xiong ,&nbsp;Jixin Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105615","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105615","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Leaks in oil and gas pipelines that flow through rivers can not only cause fire and explosion accidents, resulting in casualties and property losses but also may have irreversible negative impacts on the river environment. Therefore, from the perspective of accident prevention and control, it is very important to research the evolution and assessment of river pipeline leakage risk. Based on the typical leakage accident cases of river oil and gas pipelines, this paper uses the disaster chain to construct a loop-free network diagram to identify various risks and their evolution trends in oil spill accidents. Then, the combinatorial number-ordered weighting operator is introduced to quantify the subjective scores of the experts, the coupling interaction matrix is established, and the critical risks are identified through the interaction matrix, which measures the likelihood and severity of the node events in the risk transfer process and the importance of each path. Finally, the critical path of risk evolution is derived by Dijkstra's algorithm, and the expression for the maximum likelihood of the risk transfer path is designed to quantitatively describe the accident types with the highest degree of importance and their risk evolution paths. In this paper, taking the actual situation of an inland river as an example, the accident types with the highest risk values after the leakage are calculated to be pool fire and explosion, and the risk evolution paths of pool fire and explosion are quantitatively described, which provide theoretical references for the development of subsequent accident control and intervention measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 105615"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143561847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Systems Thinking for explosion safety management","authors":"Julio Ariel Dueñas Santana ,&nbsp;Ernesto Salzano ,&nbsp;Almerinda Di Benedetto","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105621","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105621","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing prominence of hydrogen and its mixture with methane needs a comprehensive understanding of the complex interactions linked with industrial explosion risks and mitigation strategies. Systems Thinking and system dynamics approaches are used to deal with complex systems This research explores the application of a Systems Thinking approach in the context of explosion management, specifically focusing on safety considerations associated with hydrogen, methane, and their mixtures. A Causal Loop Diagram is proposed for providing a holistic view of the complex interdependencies linked to the hydrogen enrichment implementation. A System Dynamics-based model is developed for computing the effects of hydrogen addition on the explosion risk and considering the dynamic behaviour of the interdependencies involving storage conditions, infrastructure design, and emergency response protocols. Furthermore, by adopting this holistic perspective, this research aims to identify leverage points and potential vulnerabilities in the explosion safety management associated with each gas and its mixtures. Using the developed models, it is possible to quantify and compare the risk profiles associated with H₂ and CH₄/H₂ mixture handling, providing valuable insights for designing effective explosion management strategies. By using the Systems Thinking approach, this work contributes to a better understanding of the multiple challenges in explosion management, leading to informed decision-making and advancements in safety practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 105621"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143551811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigation on the deflagration inhibition effects of potassium salt-modified dry water on CH4/air mixture","authors":"Tao Wang ,&nbsp;Fan Meng ,&nbsp;Weizhai Yi ,&nbsp;Hao Li ,&nbsp;Fan Nan ,&nbsp;Yingying Yu ,&nbsp;Litao Liu ,&nbsp;Shangyong Zhou ,&nbsp;Xuhan Ding ,&nbsp;Jun Deng ,&nbsp;Zhenmin Luo ,&nbsp;Zhe Yang ,&nbsp;Yuhuai Sheng","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105616","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105616","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, three potassium salts were selected to modify dry water powders to assess their effectiveness in mitigating methane explosions. The physical properties of the potassium salt-modified dry water were analyzed, and their impact on suppressing methane explosions was experimentally examined, including key explosion parameters of the premixed methane/air mixtures. Furthermore, kinetic analysis was conducted to reveal the explosion inhibition mechanism of typical potassium salt-modified dry water. The results demonstrate that the potassium salts enhance the inhibition effects of ordinary dry water. Potassium salt-modified dry water significantly extended both the peak pressure time and the maximum pressure rise rate. When φ = 0.8 and φ = 1.0, the peak methane overpressure time was prolonged by 6.6 times and 6.4 times, respectively, compared to ordinary dry water with the same amount of additive. The effects of explosive inhibitors on the adiabatic flame temperature of methane at different stoichiometric ratios were found to follow the order: 0.8 &gt; 1.2 &gt; 1.0. In addition to physical inhibition, the reduction in the concentrations of O, H, and OH radicals due to the addition of explosion inhibitors is a key factor in suppressing methane combustion. The outcomes of this study contribute to improving the performance of gas explosion inhibitors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 105616"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143561848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influence of pine wood dust layer width on flame propagation under horizontal rotating conditions","authors":"Lianghui Guo ,&nbsp;Chunmiao Yuan ,&nbsp;Zhiyang Zhang ,&nbsp;Kaiwen Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105612","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105612","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In response to the issue of wood dust layers accumulating on the surfaces of rotating equipment in wood product enterprises, which may potentially trigger fire incidents, relevant literature has been studied. However, the effect of the width of pine wood dust layers in a horizontal rotating state on flame propagation has not been reported. To address this, experiments were conducted under 12 different conditions, varying the width of the pine dust layers (2 cm, 3 cm, and 4 cm) and the rotational angular velocities (0 rad/s, 0.023 rad/s, 0.083 rad/s, and 0.167 rad/s). Parameters were investigated, including flame height, propagation speed, mass loss rate, and temperature changes during the flame propagation process. The results indicated that the flame shape transitioned over time from linear to U-shaped, and ultimately to V-shaped; within a certain range, both the average flame height and the average flame propagation speed initially increased and then decreased as the sample width increased. The most hazardous condition for flame propagation was identified as sample 5, which had a width of 3 cm and a rotational angular velocity of 0 rad/s. Furthermore, this study established a heat transfer model for flame propagation in pine dust layers and derived an equation for the total heat flux in the preheating zone. It was noted that during the flame propagation process in the pine dust layer, heat transfer was primarily influenced by flame radiation and solid conduction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 105612"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143601705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Natech accidents and their impact on environment caused by dangerous substance release from the SEVESO establishment","authors":"Katerina Sikorova ,&nbsp;Katerina Blazkova","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105593","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105593","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Natural hazards, such as floods, high temperatures, freeze etc., can trigger major accidents resulting in fires, explosions and toxic releases at SEVESO establishments that process, store or transport dangerous substances. These technological “side effects” of natural-hazard impacts are called “Natech” accidents (from “natural-hazards triggered technological accidents”). With the evident increase in intensity and frequency of natural events from climate change, Natech risk is an increasing concern in major accident prevention and risk management at local, national and international level. SEVESO Directive explicitly introduced Natech risk as an important component of a dangerous site's overall risk management strategy in the safety report. This paper discusses the occurrence of Natech risk in the Czech Republic, gives examples from the past and proposes a way of Natech risk management. It concludes with recommendations on how to prepare for natural hazards that can trigger a major accident.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 105593"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143561849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Theory and practice of solution strategies for unsafe acts based on accident causation models: A systematic review","authors":"Chenhui Yuan,&nbsp;Gui Fu,&nbsp;Zhirong Wu,&nbsp;Jinkun Zhao,&nbsp;Meng Han,&nbsp;Shupei Ye","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105605","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105605","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The resolution to unsafe acts, a typical human factor issue, is essential for preventing industrial accidents. Accident causation models can provide an analysis of the concept of unsafe acts, establishing a theoretical framework for identifying and intervening in unsafe acts. This systematic review focuses on analyzing their defining characteristic attributes and intervention strategies. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology was adopted in this study, 62 relevant papers from Scopus, Web of Science, and ProQuest were analyzed. Research trends in the topic were summarized, including annual publication volume, literature sources, the application of accident causation models and analytical techniques. 4 defining attributes of unsafe acts were extracted, including violations, errors, accident-causing, and risk. 2 categories of act performers were identified: front-line workers or personnel at all levels. Furthermore, 14 types of solution strategies for unsafe acts, which also function as accident prevention strategies, were specified. Key strategies include safety supervision, safety education and training, safety culture, etc. Finally, this study proposes a 4-level application stage for identifying unsafe acts and integrates 14 strategies to construct a systematic solution framework, forming a comprehensive safety management system that provides theoretical support and practical guidance for future safety practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 105605"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143478688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Machine learning for safety distances prediction during emergency response of toxic dispersion accidental scenarios","authors":"Artemis Papadaki,&nbsp;Alba Àgueda,&nbsp;Eulàlia Planas","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105604","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105604","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The present work investigates the prediction of safety distances (SDs) for toxic dispersion scenarios using machine learning (ML) models and examines an application to emergency response cases. PHAST software was used to generate multiple dispersion scenarios over a wide range of ambient conditions, leak and catastrophic rupture loss of containment focusing on nine toxic substances in varying storage conditions. The database underwent exploratory analysis and dependency testing to thoroughly analyze its content and the interdependencies among the input features. A correlation matrix facilitated feature reduction by identifying redundant features which were disregarded. The nine input features used were molecular weight (Mw), mass, storage phase, storage temperature, air temperature, stability class, wind, ground roughness and hole size. Following, four ML models, namely Random Forest, AdaBoost, HistGradientBoosting and LightGBM, were trained and optimized on the database. Their performance was compared across three sets (validation, test and extrapolation) using two common statistical metrics (RMSE and R²) and a custom metric (CS) designed to address the specific characteristics of SDs. Among the four models, LightGBM showed the best performance with an RMSE of 20.00 m and a CS of 3.65 m in the test set. Sensitivity analysis techniques (i.e., permutation importance, Sobol S1 and DMIM indices) were used to rank the importance of the features of the LightGBM model. This model was then integrated into a logic diagram capable of handling cases where some input features are unknown. Seven hypothetical cases were defined to demonstrate the practicability of such tool for emergency response.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 105604"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143528643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}