Xue Li , Wei'ao Liu , Ning Zhou , Bing Chen , Xuanya Liu , Xiongjun Yuan , Weiqiu Huang
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
The quantitative analysis of accident risk in petrochemical storage tank areas is one of the main bases of petrochemical storage tank safety management. The study collected 225 accident reports from petrochemical storage tank areas and performed statistical analysis on the risk data obtained from these reports. The Apriori algorithm is used to mine strong association rules between basic events in the risk data. These association rules are then input as conditional probabilities into the Bayesian Network (BN) model, with directed edges representing the coupling relationships between accident factors. Then, using the constructed BN model, the impact of coupling effects on the failure probabilities of various accident causes and the probabilities of different accident consequences is quantitatively analyzed. In the case of considering coupling effects, the posterior probabilities of certain key events increase significantly. For example, in the analysis of explosion accident influencing factors, the posterior probability changes of "Improper operation" (Hu01) and " Enterprise safety production main responsibility is not implemented" (Mg07) increased significantly from 0.09 to 0.07 to 0.12 and 0.11, respectively. These changes emphasize the importance of considering coupling effects in petrochemical accident risk analysis. Without considering coupling effects, certain potential hazard factors are overlooked, leading to severe accident consequences. Therefore, considering the coupling effects between accident factors during risk assessment helps to analyze accident causes more accurately, enabling targeted preventive measures, such as strengthening operator training, regular equipment maintenance, and improving safety management systems, to reduce accident probability and mitigate consequences.
期刊介绍:
The broad scope of the journal is process safety. Process safety is defined as the prevention and mitigation of process-related injuries and damage arising from process incidents involving fire, explosion and toxic release. Such undesired events occur in the process industries during the use, storage, manufacture, handling, and transportation of highly hazardous chemicals.