{"title":"Quantitatively Testing Predictions From Mechanistic Models: A Case Study for Island Biodiversity","authors":"Tak Fung, Ryan A. Chisholm","doi":"10.1111/ele.70149","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70149","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>A key test of an ecological model is whether it can quantitatively predict unseen aspects of data not used in model fitting. Previous studies have fitted models to data on island alpha diversity, but did not test how well these models predict other patterns of biodiversity. Here, we test the extent to which models fitted only to island alpha diversity can predict three other patterns of island biodiversity, including similarity of species composition among islands. We found that a neutral model produced decent predictions for 17 archipelagos, with the proportion of data points within the model's confidence intervals closely tracking the nominal coverages of the intervals, differing by 0.19 on average. Thus, as a first approximation, observed patterns of island biodiversity can be parsimoniously explained as the result of neutral competition and dispersal limitation. More broadly, our results demonstrate that neutral models can make accurate predictions of higher-order diversity statistics.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144196990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Canopy Structure Exhibits Linear and Nonlinear Links to Biome-Level Maximum Light Use Efficiency","authors":"Hamid Dashti, Min Chen, Dalei Hao, Xi Yang","doi":"10.1111/ele.70142","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70142","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Maximum light use efficiency (ε<sub>max</sub>) represents a plant's capacity to convert light into carbon during photosynthesis. Although prior studies have explored ε<sub>max</sub> variations between sunlit and shaded leaves or its temporal ties to canopy structure, the spatial relationship between biome-level ε<sub>max</sub> (ε<sub>biome</sub>) and biome structure remains poorly understood. We analysed data from 320 eddy covariance sites (~855 site-years) with satellite-derived near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRv) and leaf area index (LAI). We introduced NIRvN (NIRv/LAI) to isolate architectural effects from leaf quantity. Site-level ε<sub>max</sub> was calculated and aggregated by biome to derive ε<sub>biome</sub>. Results show ε<sub>biome</sub> rises nonlinearly with NIRv and LAI, saturating at high LAI, with crops and tropical evergreen forests deviating from this trend. Conversely, ε<sub>biome</sub> decreases linearly with increasing NIRvN, indicating that biomes with greater NIR scattering efficiency exhibit lower ε<sub>biome</sub>. These results enhance understanding of structural influences on carbon uptake across global biomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70142","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144196989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Correction to ‘Principles of Experimental Design for Ecology and Evolution’","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/ele.70124","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70124","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Marshall. D. J. (2024). Principles of experimental design for ecology and evolution. <i>Ecology Letters</i>, 27(4), e14400. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.14400</p><p>In the original publication, under the heading ‘Scales of biology and experiments’, the author made an unjustified assumption that the populations shown in Figure 2 differed <i>solely</i> in pH, the putative causal agent. However, based on the information provided in the original text, the only robust inference was that seeps/upwelling were the likely causal agent. The revised text clarifies this section and presents the argument more precisely.</p><p>Revised text:</p><p>\u0000 <b>Scales of biology and experiments</b>\u0000 </p><p>‘As biologists, we recognize that long-term exposures to an environmental stressor might yield evolutionary responses in populations that cannot be predicted from short-term exposures. So, we might use naturally occurring CO<sub>2</sub> seeps or upwelling regions as our driver of low pH; we are using differences among populations to make our inferences. Our factor of interest (lower pH, or more precisely: seep presence/absence) varies at the population level; we therefore need multiple low pH populations and multiple normal pH populations—otherwise, we will be comparing our effect of interest using an inappropriate level of variation (among-individual variation would be used to compare among-population-level differences; Figure 2). Note that we can only infer that pH is the causal factor if no other facet of the populations is different, otherwise, we can infer only that something about the CO<sub>2</sub> seeps/upwelling is likely to drive the differences. The most important point here however is that we need multiple populations of each type, not just one’.</p><p>We apologise for this mistake.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70124","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144196988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shuhai Wen, Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo, Tadeo Sáez-Sandino, Jiaying Chen, Jiao Feng, Qiaoyun Huang, Emilio Guirado, Matthias C. Rillig, Yu-Rong Liu
{"title":"Negative Impacts of Global Change Stressors Permeate Into Deep Soils","authors":"Shuhai Wen, Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo, Tadeo Sáez-Sandino, Jiaying Chen, Jiao Feng, Qiaoyun Huang, Emilio Guirado, Matthias C. Rillig, Yu-Rong Liu","doi":"10.1111/ele.70143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70143","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Surface soils are highly vulnerable to multiple global change stressors associated with climate change and human activity; however, whether the impacts of this increasing number of stressors penetrate deeper soils remains virtually unknown. Here, we conducted a continental-scale survey of soil profiles (0–100 cm). Results showed that multiple stressors jointly affect multiple soil functions (from soil carbon sequestration to pathogen control) across top (0–30 cm), subsurface (30–60 cm) and deep soils (60–100 cm). An increasing number of stressors was especially detrimental to the capacity of ecosystems to support productivity and regulate soil-borne pathogens across all depths. Further analyses revealed that climatic stressors interact with multiple environmental stressors, diminishing multifunctionality across the soil profile. Our work demonstrates that the effects of multiple stressors can permeate the entire soil profile, highlighting that an increasing number of global change stressors at low levels significantly threaten multiple functions supported by deep soils.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144206422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Runa K. Ekrem, Alexander Jacobsen, Hanna Kokko, Tobias S. Kaiser
{"title":"How an Insect Converts Time Into Space: Temporal Niches Aid Coexistence via Modifying the Amount of Habitat Available for Reproduction","authors":"Runa K. Ekrem, Alexander Jacobsen, Hanna Kokko, Tobias S. Kaiser","doi":"10.1111/ele.70139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70139","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Temporal niches do not automatically promote coexistence. We combine field data on the marine midge <i>Clunio marinus</i> with a model. In Roscoff (Brittany, France) sympatric <i>C. marinus</i> timing strains emerge at full moon (FM strain) or just before new moon (NM strain). We show that NM individuals reproduce and lay eggs when the water level is higher than during FM strain reproduction, and that this shift partially segregates larvae according to elevation. Modelling the underlying dynamics shows that the causality from temporal to spatial niches is crucial for coexistence: for hypothetical strains which differ in the temporal niche used for reproduction so that they use equivalently low water levels for egg-laying, the dynamics show priority effects, not coexistence. While general theory on temporal niches is rather complex, we highlight the understudied possibility that timing traits cause differences in space use, and coexistence is unproblematic as it results from spatial niches.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70139","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144171941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Clare A. Rodenberg, Jonathan A. Walter, Kyle J. Haynes
{"title":"Evidence of Spatial Synchrony in the Spread of an Invasive Forest Pest","authors":"Clare A. Rodenberg, Jonathan A. Walter, Kyle J. Haynes","doi":"10.1111/ele.70140","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70140","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Because population growth is a key component of range expansion, spatial synchrony in population growth along a species' range edge may lead to spatial synchrony in range expansion. However, demographic stochasticity in low-density range-edge populations and stochastic long-distance dispersal may disrupt the synchronisation of range expansion. Here, we investigate whether rates of spread by an invasive species, the spongy moth and exhibit spatial synchrony. We also evaluate if climatic oscillations at multi-annual timescales arising from teleconnections synchronise spread at similar timescales. We applied extensions of wavelet analysis to spatiotemporal data on climate variables and range-edge abundances during 1990–2020. Synchrony in spread occurred throughout the entire study area, but only in the northernmost and southernmost ecoregions was synchrony in spread explained by multi-annual climate oscillations linked to teleconnection patterns. We demonstrate spatial synchrony in invasive spread and find an opportunity to predict the timing of pulses of invasive spread at regional scales.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70140","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144171939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Emma-Liina Marjakangas, Bo Dalsgaard, Alejandro Ordonez
{"title":"Fundamental Interaction Niches: Towards a Functional Understanding of Ecological Networks' Resilience","authors":"Emma-Liina Marjakangas, Bo Dalsgaard, Alejandro Ordonez","doi":"10.1111/ele.70146","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70146","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global change will create new species interactions and alter or eliminate existing ones, a process known as interaction rewiring. This rewiring can significantly affect how ecosystems function. To better predict the future structure of ecological networks, assessing their ability to adapt to changes is crucial. Here, we introduce two concepts: ‘rewiring capacity’ of a single species (the multidimensional trait space of all its potential interaction partners within a region) and ‘rewiring potential’ of a local community (the total trait space covered by interaction partners of the species at the target trophic level locally). To quantify the rewiring capacity and potential, we apply existing methods for determining species' functional interaction niches in a novel way to assess species' and communities' ability to form new interactions and the functional resilience of interaction networks to global change. To illustrate the applicability of these concepts, we quantified the rewiring capacity and potential of interactions between 1002 flowering plant species and 318 hummingbird species across the Americas. The rewiring capacity and potential metrics offer a new way to understand and quantify network resilience, allowing us to map how ecological networks respond to global change.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70146","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144171940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. Matthias Dehling, Hao Ran Lai, Daniel B. Stouffer
{"title":"Eltonian Niche Modelling: Applying Joint Hierarchical Niche Models to Ecological Networks","authors":"D. Matthias Dehling, Hao Ran Lai, Daniel B. Stouffer","doi":"10.1111/ele.70120","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ele.70120","url":null,"abstract":"<p>There is currently a dichotomy in the modelling of Grinnellian and Eltonian niches. Despite similar underlying data, Grinnellian niches are modelled with species-distribution models (SDMs), whereas Eltonian niches are modelled with ecological-network analysis, mainly because the sparsity of species-interaction data prevents the application of SDMs to Eltonian-niche modelling. Here, we propose to adapt recently developed joint species distribution models (JSDMs) to data on ecological networks, functional traits, and phylogenies to model species' Eltonian niches. JSDMs overcome sparsity and improve predictions for individual species by considering non-independent relationships among co-occurring species; this unique ability makes them particularly suited for sparse datasets such as ecological networks. Our Eltonian JSDMs reveal strong relationships between species' Eltonian niches and their functional traits and phylogeny. Moreover, we demonstrate that JSDMs can accurately predict the interactions of species for which no empirical interaction data are available, based solely on their functional traits. This facilitates prediction of new interactions in communities with altered composition, for example, following climate-change induced local extinctions or species introductions. The high interpretability of Eltonian JSDMs will provide unique insights into mechanisms underlying species interactions and the potential impacts of environmental changes and invasive species on species interactions in ecological communities.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70120","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144165703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tim Newbold, Jeremy Kerr, Peter Soroye, Jessica J. Williams
{"title":"Bumble Bee Probability of Occurrence Responds to Interactions Between Local and Landscape Land Use, Climatic Niche Properties and Climate Change","authors":"Tim Newbold, Jeremy Kerr, Peter Soroye, Jessica J. Williams","doi":"10.1111/ele.70145","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70145","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Insect biodiversity is changing rapidly, driven by a suite of pressures, notably land use, land-use intensification and increasingly climate change. We lack large-scale evidence on how land use and climate change interact to drive insect biodiversity changes. We assess bumble bee responses to interactive effects of land use and climate pressures across North America and Europe. The probability of occurrence increases in landscapes with a higher proportion of natural habitat and a shorter history of human disturbance. Responses to climate warming relative to historical conditions are weakly negative in natural habitats but positive in human land uses, while human land use reduces the probability of occurrence most in the centre of species' temperature niches. We estimate that the combined pressures have reduced bumble bee probability of occurrence by 44% across sampled natural habitats and 55% across human land uses, highlighting the pervasive influence that human pressures have had on biodiversity across habitats.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70145","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144140599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Zachary R. Miller, David Vasseur, Pincelli M. Hull
{"title":"Stabilisation of Fluctuating Population Dynamics via the Evolution of Dormancy","authors":"Zachary R. Miller, David Vasseur, Pincelli M. Hull","doi":"10.1111/ele.70141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70141","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Dormancy is usually understood as a strategy for coping with extrinsic environmental variation, but intrinsic population fluctuations also create conditions where dormancy is adaptive. By analysing simple population models, we show that population fluctuations favour the evolution of dormancy, but dormancy stabilises population dynamics. This sets up a feedback loop that can enable the coexistence of alternative dormancy strategies. Over longer timescales, we show that the evolution of dormancy to an evolutionary stable state can drive populations to the edge of stability, where dynamics are only weakly stabilised. We briefly consider how these conclusions are likely to apply in more complex community contexts. Our results suggest that chaos and high-amplitude population cycles are highly vulnerable to invasion and subsequent stabilisation by dormancy, potentially explaining their rarity. At the same time, the propensity of ecological dynamics to fluctuate may be an underappreciated driver of the evolution of dormancy.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144135802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}