John M. Drake, John P. Wares, James E. Byers, Jill T. Anderson
{"title":"Two Hypotheses About Climate Change and Species Distributions","authors":"John M. Drake, John P. Wares, James E. Byers, Jill T. Anderson","doi":"10.1111/ele.70134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70134","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Species' distributions are changing around the planet as a result of global climate change. Most research has focused on shifts in mean climate conditions, leaving the effects of increased environmental variability comparatively underexplored. This paper proposes two new macroecological hypotheses—the <i>variability damping hypothesis</i> and the <i>variability adaptation hypothesis</i>—to understand how ecological dynamics and evolutionary history could influence biogeographic patterns being forced by contemporary large-scale climate change across all major ecosystems. The variability damping hypothesis predicts that distributions of species living in deep water environments will be least affected by increasing climate-driven temperature variability compared with species in nearshore, intertidal and terrestrial environments. The variability adaptation hypothesis predicts the opposite. Where available, we discuss how the existing evidence aligns with these hypotheses and propose ways in which they may be empirically tested.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70134","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143926097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Warming-Induced Plant Species Shifts Lead to Substantial Losses of Wetland Soil Carbon","authors":"Baoyu Sun, Ruifeng Sun, Jianjun Xu, Wenjing Gao, Xiaojing Chu, Huilan Yuan, Fangxiu Wan, Liming Yan, Guangxuan Han, Jianyang Xia, Ming Nie","doi":"10.1111/ele.70129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70129","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Wetlands are large reservoirs of soil organic carbon (SOC), storing one-third of global SOC within 6% of the land surface. However, the feedback direction and magnitude of wetland SOC storage to climate warming remain unclear. Here we present results from an 8-year (2014–2022) wetland warming experiment in the Yellow River Delta, revealing that wetland SOC storage responds to warming in a phase-dependent manner. We found that warming initially reduced both carbon input and output but did not change SOC storage. However, SOC storage abruptly decreased by 21.4% in 2020, which persisted over the following 2 years. This occurred mainly due to shifts in the biomass of dominant plant species (<i>P. australis</i>) under warming, reducing carbon input, increasing microbial carbon degradation, and resulting in microbial necromass carbon loss. These results highlight the critical role of dominant plant species in driving the wetland soil carbon cycle and its feedback to climate change.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143909202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Graydon J. Gillies, Michael P. Dungey, Christopher G. Eckert
{"title":"Evidence That Metapopulation Dynamics Maintain a Species' Range Limit","authors":"Graydon J. Gillies, Michael P. Dungey, Christopher G. Eckert","doi":"10.1111/ele.70128","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70128","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The metapopulation hypothesis for range limits proposes that geographic variation in a species' extinction from and/or colonisation of habitat can generate an abrupt range limit. We tested whether this contributes to the northern range limit of coastal dune plant <i>Camissoniopsis cheiranthifolia</i> by quantifying suitable habitat area and the rates of extinction and colonisation across 3485 plots throughout the northern half of the species' range. Colonisation of previously unoccupied plots increased with suitable habitat area and abundance in nearby plots and consequently declined towards the range limit. Extinction was more frequent from plots with less habitat and lower initial abundance but did not increase significantly towards the limit. Incorporating spatial variation in estimated rates of colonisation and extinction in a metapopulation model predicted a decline in plot occupancy towards the limit that closely matched the observed decline in occupancy. Thus, variation in metapopulation dynamics may contribute to this species' range limit.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70128","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143909206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kseniia Kravchenko, Christian C. Voigt, Jan Volkholz, Alexandre Courtiol, Shannon E. Currie
{"title":"Shorter and Warmer Winters Expand the Hibernation Area of Bats in Europe","authors":"Kseniia Kravchenko, Christian C. Voigt, Jan Volkholz, Alexandre Courtiol, Shannon E. Currie","doi":"10.1111/ele.70119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70119","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Predicting species range shifts in response to environmental change requires the determination of regions where individuals maintain a positive energy budget. For hibernating animals, this budget depends on two physiological states (normothermy and torpor) that alternate in response to ambient temperature. To study range shifts of hibernators like the common noctule (<i>Nyctalus noctula</i>), we developed an ecophysiological approach that integrates metabolic rates, physiological states, and environmental conditions. Our model accurately hindcasted the northward range shift of this migratory bat over the past 50 years. Under climate change forecasts SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, for which winters will shorten by 1.4–41 days and warm by 0.11°C–2.3°C, the hibernation area is predicted to shift by 78–732 km and expand north-eastward by 5.8%–14% by 2100. Mean ambient temperature and winter duration prove sufficient to approximate the hibernation niche and may be used to predict changes in hibernation areas where collecting physiological measurements is difficult.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70119","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Simple, Universal Rules Predict Trophic Interaction Strengths","authors":"Kyle E. Coblentz, Mark Novak, John P. DeLong","doi":"10.1111/ele.70126","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70126","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Many drivers of ecological systems exhibit regular scaling relationships, yet the mechanisms explaining these relationships are often unknown. Trophic interaction strengths are no exception, exhibiting scaling relationships with predator and prey traits that lack evolutionary explanations. We propose two rules to explain the scaling of trophic interaction strengths through the relationship between a predator's feeding rate and its prey's density—the so-called predator functional response. First, functional responses allow predators to meet their energetic demands when prey are rare. Second, functional responses approach their maxima near the highest prey densities predators experience. We show that equations derived from these rules predict functional response parameters across over 2100 functional response experiments and make additional predictions such as their allometric scaling. The two rules thereby offer a potential ultimate explanation for the determinants of trophic interaction strengths, revealing ecologically realised constraints to the complex, adaptive nature of functional response evolution.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70126","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143888873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Wentao Luo, Naohiro I. Ishii, Taofeek O. Muraina, Lin Song, Niwu Te, Robert J. Griffin-Nolan, Ingrid J. Slette, Samuel R. P. J. Ross, Takehiro Sasaki, Jennifer A. Rudgers, Melinda D. Smith, Alan K. Knapp, Scott L. Collins
{"title":"Extreme Drought Increases the Temporal Variability of Grassland Productivity by Suppressing Dominant Grasses","authors":"Wentao Luo, Naohiro I. Ishii, Taofeek O. Muraina, Lin Song, Niwu Te, Robert J. Griffin-Nolan, Ingrid J. Slette, Samuel R. P. J. Ross, Takehiro Sasaki, Jennifer A. Rudgers, Melinda D. Smith, Alan K. Knapp, Scott L. Collins","doi":"10.1111/ele.70127","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70127","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Extreme droughts are intensifying, yet their impact on temporal variability of grassland functioning and its drivers remains poorly understood. We imposed a 6-year extreme drought in two semiarid grasslands to explore how drought influences the temporal variability of ANPP and identify potential stabilising mechanisms. Drought decreased ANPP while increasing its temporal variability across grasslands. In the absence of drought, ANPP variability was strongly driven by the dominant plant species (i.e., mass-ratio effects), as captured by community-weighted traits and species stability. However, drought decreased the dominance of perennial grasses, providing opportunities for subordinate species to alter the stability of productivity through compensatory dynamics. Specifically, under drought, species asynchrony emerged as a more important correlate of ANPP variability than community-weighted traits or species stability. Our findings suggest that in grasslands, prolonged, extreme droughts may decrease the relative contribution of mass-ratio effects versus compensatory dynamics to productivity stability by reducing the influence of dominant species.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143880058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Daniel C. Reuman, Jonathan A. Walter, Lawrence W. Sheppard, Vadim A. Karatayev, Ethan S. Kadiyala, Amanda C. Lohmann, Thomas L. Anderson, Nat J. Coombs, Kyle J. Haynes, Lauren M. Hallett, Max C. N. Castorani
{"title":"Insights Into Spatial Synchrony Enabled by Long-Term Data","authors":"Daniel C. Reuman, Jonathan A. Walter, Lawrence W. Sheppard, Vadim A. Karatayev, Ethan S. Kadiyala, Amanda C. Lohmann, Thomas L. Anderson, Nat J. Coombs, Kyle J. Haynes, Lauren M. Hallett, Max C. N. Castorani","doi":"10.1111/ele.70112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70112","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Spatial synchrony, the tendency for temporal fluctuations in an ecological variable to be positively associated in different locations, is a widespread and important phenomenon in ecology. Understanding of the nature and mechanisms of synchrony, and how synchrony is changing, has developed rapidly over the past 2 decades. Many recent developments have taken place through the study of long-term data sets. Here, we review and synthesise some important recent advances in spatial synchrony, with a focus on how long-term data have facilitated new understanding. Longer time series do not just facilitate better testing of existing ideas or more precise statistical results; more importantly, they also frequently make possible the expansion of conceptual paradigms. We discuss several such advances in our understanding of synchrony, how long-term data led to these advances, and how future studies can continue to improve the state of knowledge.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70112","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143865739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Correction to “A Non-Equilibrium Species Distribution Model Reveals Unprecedented Depth of Time Lag Responses to Past Environmental Change Trajectories”","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/ele.70123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70123","url":null,"abstract":"<p>\u0000 <span>Lalechère, E.</span>, <span>Marrec, R.</span>, & <span>Lenoir, J.</span> (<span>2025</span>). <span>A Non-Equilibrium Species Distribution Model Reveals Unprecedented Depth of Time Lag Responses to Past Environmental Change Trajectories</span>. <i>Ecology Letters</i>, <span>28</span>(<span>1</span>), e70040. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70040\u0000 </p><p>In the ‘Material and Methods’ section and in the ‘Results’ section, the assertation that the distribution of the residual errors followed a normal distribution was unnecessary to assess model validity. This may lead to some confusion about the family of distribution that was used. As stated in the article, we relied on the binomial distribution.</p><p>We apologize for this mistake.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70123","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143861814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
James B. Grace, Nick Huntington-Klein, E. William Schweiger, Melinda Martinez, Michael J. Osland, Laura C. Feher, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Karen M. Thorne
{"title":"Causal Effects Versus Causal Mechanisms: Two Traditions With Different Requirements and Contributions Towards Causal Understanding","authors":"James B. Grace, Nick Huntington-Klein, E. William Schweiger, Melinda Martinez, Michael J. Osland, Laura C. Feher, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Karen M. Thorne","doi":"10.1111/ele.70029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70029","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The scientific aspiration of building causal knowledge has received little explicit discussion in ecology despite its fundamental importance. When methods are described as ‘causal’, emphasis is increasingly placed on statistical techniques for isolating associations so as to quantify causal effects. In contrast, natural scientists have historically approached the pursuit of causal knowledge through the investigation of mechanisms that interconnect the components of systems. In this paper, we first summarise a recently published multievidence paradigm for causal studies meant to reconcile conflicting viewpoints. We then describe some of the basic principles of causal statistics and the challenge of estimating pure causal effects. We follow that by describing basic principles related to causal mechanistic investigations, which focus on characterising the structures and processes conveying causal effects. While causal statistics focuses on estimating effect sizes, mechanistic investigations focus on characterising the attributes of the underlying structures and processes linking causative agents to responses. There are important differences between how one approaches each endeavour, as well as differences in what is obtained from each type of investigation. Finally, the case is made that an explicit assessment of existing mechanistic knowledge should be an initial step in causal investigations.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70029","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143857131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. Henrik Barmentlo, Maarten Schrama, Ellen Cieraad, Geert R. de Snoo, C. J. M. Musters, Peter M. van Bodegom, Martina G. Vijver
{"title":"Networks in Aquatic Communities Collapse Upon Neonicotinoid-Induced Stress","authors":"S. Henrik Barmentlo, Maarten Schrama, Ellen Cieraad, Geert R. de Snoo, C. J. M. Musters, Peter M. van Bodegom, Martina G. Vijver","doi":"10.1111/ele.70121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70121","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Freshwater ecosystems worldwide are under pressure from neonicotinoid insecticides. While it is recognised that communities of species are responsible for ecosystem functioning, it remains unknown if neonicotinoid-induced community transformations negatively affect ecosystem functioning. Therefore, we employed an experimental approach with 36 naturally established freshwater ecosystems exposed to increasing field-realistic concentrations of the neonicotinoid thiacloprid. Upon exposure, we found severe degradation of ecosystem functioning in the form of loss of organic matter consumption and dramatic shifts in primary productivity. This functional decline coincides with strongly eroded species co-occurrence networks to the point that these are indistinguishable from randomised assemblages of species. Together, these findings show how current environmental concentrations of a neonicotinoid can strongly disrupt freshwater ecosystem functioning via degradation of the invertebrate food web. Since this dramatic ecosystem degradation occurs below nearly all identified ecotoxicological risks, we call here for the reconsideration of the use of these insecticides.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70121","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143857130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}