Chronic Heat Tolerance Reveals Overestimated Thermal Safety Margins and Increased Vulnerability in Marine Fish Populations

IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY
Ecology Letters Pub Date : 2025-06-24 DOI:10.1111/ele.70165
Andrés N. Molina, M. Roberto García-Huidobro, Enrico L. Rezende, Mauricio J. Carter
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Predicting vulnerability to global warming remains an elusive goal in thermal biology. In marine fishes, ongoing changes in distribution contrast with their apparent capacity to tolerate temperatures from 5°C up to 25°C higher than current conditions. Employing a data set of 786 upper critical temperatures across 213 species and recent theoretical developments, we provide conclusive evidence that these so-called thermal safety margins overestimate the resilience to warming and that most species inhabit thermal conditions approaching their physiological tolerance limit. This result holds across latitudes and based on historical records, several populations have encountered stressful temperatures in the recent past. While warming tolerance remains similar across geographic regions, behavioural responses are constrained at low latitudes as distribution shifts required to encounter cooler waters are disproportionally higher in the tropics. Overall, our results illustrate how thermotolerance measures can be extrapolated to the field and used to quantify vulnerability to warming.

Abstract Image

慢性耐热性揭示了高估的热安全边际和海洋鱼类种群脆弱性的增加
在热生物学中,预测对全球变暖的脆弱性仍然是一个难以捉摸的目标。在海洋鱼类中,分布的持续变化与它们承受比当前条件高出5°C至25°C的温度的明显能力形成对比。利用213个物种的786个最高临界温度的数据集和最近的理论发展,我们提供了确凿的证据,证明这些所谓的热安全边际高估了对变暖的适应能力,并且大多数物种居住在接近其生理耐受极限的热条件下。根据历史记录,这一结果在各个纬度都适用,最近有几个种群遭遇了高温。虽然不同地理区域的变暖耐受性仍然相似,但行为反应在低纬度地区受到限制,因为遇到较冷水域所需的分布变化在热带地区不成比例地更高。总的来说,我们的结果说明了如何将耐热性措施外推到现场,并用于量化对变暖的脆弱性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Ecology Letters
Ecology Letters 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
17.60
自引率
3.40%
发文量
201
审稿时长
1.8 months
期刊介绍: Ecology Letters serves as a platform for the rapid publication of innovative research in ecology. It considers manuscripts across all taxa, biomes, and geographic regions, prioritizing papers that investigate clearly stated hypotheses. The journal publishes concise papers of high originality and general interest, contributing to new developments in ecology. Purely descriptive papers and those that only confirm or extend previous results are discouraged.
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